区域间劳动力迁移对地区差距的影响

新古典经济理论认为,劳动力从欠发达地区向发达地区迁移会导致显著的收敛效果,但国外的经验研究表明,有些国家的区域间劳动力迁移缩小了地区差距,而有些国家劳动力迁移反而扩大了地区差距,对这一经济理论与实证研究结果的矛盾（“迁移谜题”）目前还缺乏很好的解释。本文在新经济地理学的框架下通过引入资本的外部性、劳动力的不完全流动性以及城市经济学中的拥挤效应,建立了一个两区域经济增长模型,证明了由于存在“资本追逐劳动”的现象,区域间的劳动力迁移可能缩小、也可能扩大地区差距,这主要取决于资本的外部性和拥挤效应的相对大小,以及农村和城镇居民的技能差异,从而为“迁移谜题”提供了一个较合理的理论解释。本文的模型说明劳动力流动并不一定能自动缩小地区差距,因此政府必须采取进一步的积极措施促进区域协调发展。     

贸易成本、要素流动与区域经济差异

本世纪以来,中国交通基础设施不断优化、物流业的迅猛发展以及国内市场化的不断加深对中国区域间要素流动、产业转移及区域经济差异的影响,成为具有重要理论与现实意义的问题。本文通过构建包含贸易成本的两地区-两部门新经济地理模型来研究这一问题,并在合理的参数条件下进行数值模拟。研究发现贸易成本的降低阻碍了劳动力、资本与可贸易产业从发达地区向欠发达地区的流动和转移,加大了地区间经济差异,从而为"迁移谜题"提供了新的解释角度。根据理论研究的结果,本文提出相关的政策建议。     

户籍门槛、流动性差异与地区收入差距

按学历、技能设置的落户条件在一定程度上强化了不同人力资本禀赋劳动力的流动性差异,这种流动性差异深刻的影响着人力资本的区域间分布和现代部门产业的空间格局,从而为解释地区收入差距的形成与扩大提供了新的视角。本文将户籍门槛变量引入新经济地理模型,并利用数值模拟技术分析在不同水平的户籍门槛、贸易成本、人力资本份额下,不同技能劳动力的空间选择及地区收入差距变动。研究结果表明,需求与供给效应的彼此强化使得低技能劳动力与高技能劳动力在同一区域聚集,但因技能而设置的户籍门槛作为分散力阻碍了低技能劳动力的空间聚集过程。伴随区域一体化推进,贸易成本不断降低,高技能劳动力将在发达地区高度集聚,而如果户籍门槛保持不变,低技能劳动力将均匀地分布在两个区域。高技能劳动力的地理集中是导致地区收入差距持续扩大的主要原因,降低贸易成本能够有效缩小地区收入差距,而降低户籍门槛或提高人力资本份额均使地区差距变得更大。本文进一步回顾了改革开放以来中国出现的劳动力回流现象、人力资本的迁移趋势、以及改革开放以来地区收入差距的收敛和发散趋势,发现经验数据与理论命题的结论基本相符。     

关于劳动力转移与地区经济差异的分析

地区经济差距的扩大或缩小取决于两类经济效应的角力结果,而劳动力转移在这个角力过程中扮演着重要的角色。在现行制度安排下,我国劳动力转移并没有增强东部发达地区的扩散效应或涓滴效应,相反增强了其回流效应和极化效应,进一步扩大了地区经济差异。因此,必须在工会制度、地方政府考核机制、劳动立法体系以及户籍制度等方面重构现行正式制度安排,以改变现在劳动力转移的最终效应,达到缩小东西部差距,协调区域经济发展的目的。     

市场规模、劳动力成本与异质性企业区位选择——中国地区经济差距与生产率差距之谜的一个解释

为什么中国地区经济差距在缩小,生产率差距却在扩大?本文以新新经济地理理论模型为基础,构建了一个包括市场规模差异(集聚力)和劳动力成本差异(分散力)的理论模型,对忽视分散力的新新经济地理理论进行扩展,在此基础上讨论了生产率异质性企业定位选择对地区差距的影响。研究发现,生产率异质性企业定位选择是中国地区经济差距缩小和生产率差距扩大的原因,但导致生产率异质性企业分类集聚的原因是劳动力成本差异,而非市场规模差异。在市场一体化进程中,东部地区的低生产率企业首先向外迁移,地区经济差距在缩小,生产率差距却在扩大。随着市场一体化进程的深化,东部地区的高生产率企业也会向外迁移,生产率差距将开始缩小。随后,本文使用大规模微观企业数据证实了理论模型的结论。     

劳动力转移与工资差距同时扩大的“悖论”研究——基于市场分割的视角

从市场分割的角度出发,对劳动力流动与工资差距同时扩大的"悖论"和中国市场化过程中的"迁移谜题"进行了深入分析,认为劳动力市场的地区分割和城乡分割导致了劳动者之间必然存在工资收入差距,而且即使存在劳动力转移,也不能使工资差距收敛。这种制度性偏好导致的劳动力市场分割,对劳动者工资收入差距的扩大起了推波助澜的作用,因此构建全国统一、自由竞争的劳动力市场是非常必要的,并提出有关的政策建议。     

重庆区域经济差异分析——基于泰尔指数

将重庆市划分为都市圈、渝西地区和库区生态区三大经济区域,分析了2000—2009年重庆市三大区域经济的相对差异、绝对差异和泰尔指数,将定量和定性分析方法相结合来评价重庆市三大区域的经济差异现状。实证分析结果显示:重庆市三大区域的经济差异在逐年扩大,区域间差距比区域内部差距的扩大速度更快。提出建议:对经济差异的调控应以缩小区域间的差异为重点,同时加强各区域经济中心的建设,更好地发挥经济中心对周围各区县的辐射效应和带动作用等。     

劳动力老龄化对我国区域经济收敛性的影响及测算

本文收集了我国1982-2010年劳动力年龄人口等宏观经济变量,在“绝对收敛”和“相对收敛”模型基础上分析了劳动力老龄化对我国区域经济收敛性的影响.结果表明,劳动力老龄化减缓了全国范畴内的经济收敛速度,间接扩大了区域差距,且西部各省经济增长存在发散趋势.尽管目前劳动力老龄化还不是造成我国区域差距扩大的主要原因,但随着人口老龄化加剧,劳动力年龄人口绝对数量减少,提升中西部地区的人才积聚能力将是缩小我国区域差距的重要途径.     

我国欠发达地区教育公共投资低发展陷阱研究——基于代际传递的实证分析

文章基于内生增长理论建立了一个人力资本区域溢出模型,考察了我国劳动力的区域流动带来的人力资本的溢出效应,以及由此产生的教育公共投资决策的变化.理论和实证研究表明,劳动力的区域流动使发达地区基于社会经济环境优势获得欠发达地区的人力资本投资的溢出效应,并抑制其教育公共投资的激励,差距随着经济和教育投资的不同增长路径越来越大,欠发达地区教育投资的代际传递使社会经济有陷入"低发展陷阱"的危险.而解决问题的关键则是通过积极的公共政策实现外部效应内部化,达到教育平等、投资合理和发展均衡的效果.     

扩大内需背景下的效率与公平研究——基于本地市场效应模型的分析

基于本地市场效应模型,本文首先从资本可以跨区域流动、劳动力不可以跨区域流动的假设入手,经过理论推导证明,在本地市场效应存在的地区,扩大内需可以兼顾经济增长和区际协调发展.然后进—步利用区域间投入产出数据和两阶段最小二乘估计方法,在经验上证实了我国区域层面本地市场效应的存在,这意味着扩大内需的经济政策可以兼顾我国区域经济发展的效率与公平.最后根据本文的研究结论,针对扩大内需、资本跨区域流动和劳动力的“区域内城乡统筹”战略分别提出具有针对性的政策建议.     

The effect of NAFTA on internal migration in Mexico: a regional economic analysis

Trade facilitates growth in some regions of a country while shrinking others, and therefore to benefit from trade, labour may need to be able to migrate. This mobility is particularly crucial in a developing country with high income inequality like Mexico. We seek to answer the following questions: What characteristics facilitate or hinder that internal migration? Has trade liberalization changed the pattern of internal migration in Mexico? We first predict regional economic growth resulting from changes in Mexico-US tariffs by sector. We find that trade liberalization appears to have largely benefited the manufacturing sector. Next, using a spatial gravity model of migration, we find that while economic growth from trade openness drew workers to urban regions in the northern Border States of Mexico, much of the trade-driven migration occurred before NAFTA. Second, contrary to popular belief, migration from largely rural states appears to have decreased since NAFTA. We also find evidence that migration to the United States increased after NAFTA. Last, we find that income disparity in both the destination and origin region deters migration and that this effect increases after NAFTA. Thus, we see evidence that within-region income disparity can hinder migration, potentially exacerbating income disparity among regions.     

Technological complexity and economic growth

Over the last fifty years there have been large secular increases in educational attainment and R&D intensity. The fact that these trends have not stimulated more rapid income growth has been a persistent puzzle for growth theorists. We construct a model of endogenous economic growth in which income growth, R&D intensity, and educational attainment depend on the complexity of new technologies. An increase in complexity that makes passive learning more difficult induces increases in R&D and education, alongside a decline in income growth. Our explanation also predicts a concurrent rise in the skill premium.     

The Immigration Policy Puzzle

This paper revisits the puzzle of immigration policy: standard economic theory predicts that free immigration improves natives' welfare, but (with few historical exceptions) an open door policy is never implemented in practice. What rationalizes the puzzle? We first review the model of immigration policy where the policy maker maximizes national income of natives net of the tax burden of immigration. We show that this model fails to provide realistic policy outcomes when the receiving region's technology is described by a standard Cobb–Douglas or CES function. Then we describe three extensions of this basic model that reconcile theory with evidence. The first introduces a cost of integration of the immigrant community in the destination country; the second takes into account the policy maker's redistributive concern across different social groups; the last extension considers positive spillover effects of (skilled) migrants on the receiving economy.     

二元结构、经济转轨与城乡收入差距分化

文章认为,城乡收入差距内生于"经济人"追求自身效用最大化的过程当中,直接套用库兹涅茨-威廉姆森假说对我国的城乡收入差距可能并不一定具有太大的解释力,而将我国的城乡二元结构和经济转轨这一双重制度变迁背景引入城乡差距模型中才能清楚地解释中国的城乡差距。研究发现,人口自由流动条件下,随着经济的发展,城乡收入差距会逐步缩小;人口不自由流动条件下,城乡差距会发生多层分化,但即使如此,中国的城乡差距仍不太符合所谓的库兹涅茨-威廉姆森假说。     

Comparative effects of migrants’ remittances on composition of recipient household income in two small,island economies

We use unique household survey data from Fiji and Tonga to estimate and compare the combined impact of migration and remittances on the composition of household income. A two-step methodology is followed employing a migration prediction model followed by the estimation of a Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS) remittances and income equation system. We find that remittances contribute to growth in productive capital and entrepreneurial activity in the longer-established migrant economy, but have yet to impact on business activity in the more recently remittances-oriented economy, despite it having a more developed, market economy. In the latter case, remittances seem more linked to supporting consumption through supplementing low wage income. These findings suggest that the duration and intensity of remittance-driven migration, and the structure of economic activity within a community are important in understanding the influences of migration and remittances on household resource allocation and production decisions.     

Inter-provincial migration and inequality during Vietnam's transition

Vietnam's economic boom during the transition to a market economy has centered on very rapid growth in some sectors and provinces, yet poverty has diminished across the entire country. With capital investments highly concentrated by province and sector, geographic labor mobility may be critical in spreading the gains from growth. Conversely, rising income inequality may be attributable in part to impediments to migration. We first use census data to investigate migration patterns and determinants. We then examine the role of migration as an influence on income ratios between pairs of provinces. The former analysis robustly confirms economic motives for migration but also suggests the existence of poverty-related labor immobility at the provincial level. Examination of income ratios between pairs of provinces reveals that the impact of migration on inequality can be either negative or positive. A robust inequality-reducing impact of migration is found for migration flows into provinces where most of Vietnam's trade-oriented industrial investments are located.     

Genetic distance,economic growth and top income shares: Evidence from OECD countries

The relationship between economic growth and income inequality remains a puzzle in the literature. The main problem has been finding a way to account for the endogeneity of growth. Using century-long data of 14 OECD countries, this study disentangles the growth–inequality relationship. In doing so, our main contribution is employing genetic and geographical distances as instruments for economic growth. The instruments are constructed on the premise that the growth of one country spills over to the others if they are connected through trade and other forms of exchange; however, the genetic and geographical distances between countries represent barriers to such spillovers. Using alternative specifications and measures, we find that growth reduces the inequality measured by top income shares. As capital share increases in the growth process and capital substitutes labour, inequality-reducing strength of growth declines. Another important finding is that the effect of growth on top income shares is more significant among the highest income groups.     

A META‐ANALYSIS ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INCOME INEQUALITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

In recent years there is a growing interest in determining the impact of inequality on economic growth. Theoretical papers as well as empirical applications have, however, produced controversial results. Although there is a considerable part of the literature that considers inequality detrimental to growth, more recent studies have challenged this result and found a positive effect of inequality on growth. In this paper, we provide a contribution to the empirical puzzle by using meta‐analysis to systematically describe, identify and analyse the variation in outcomes of empirical studies. We find that estimation methods, data quality and sample coverage systematically affect the results. The results point out that it will be particularly useful to increasingly focus research on determining the impact of income inequality on economic growth using single‐country data at the regional level, or a relatively homogeneous set of countries with adequate controls for country‐wide differences in economic, social and institutional characteristics.     

Emigration intentions in a post-conflict environment: evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina

In this study we analyse intentions to emigrate from Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), focusing not only on typical individual and household determinants, but also on post-conflict specific influences. We investigate cross-sectional survey data collected over the period from 2002 to 2010. Our findings indicate that higher intentions for emigration are indeed linked to the typical individual and household conditions: the young, educated and low-family income respondents report the highest intentions to emigrate. In addition, the post-conflict environment characterised by economic and political instability, as well as by conflict and post-conflict related migration, increases these intentions further, both independently and in different combinations. Although determinants such as employment status, household income and perception of economic development are relevant, their effect is of second-order importance. This contradicts the conventional thinking that economic factors are the main driving forces of emigration intentions. We provide evidence that the conflict and post-conflict related migration experiences, and the political situation, may surpass individual and societal economic influences in importance.     

EXPLAINING THE SAVING PUZZLES IN URBAN CHINA

This paper identifies two saving puzzles obtained from the Chinese Urban Household Survey data from 1990 to 2006. The first saving puzzle is identified by the time trend of household saving rates, which were stable before 1998, but surged subsequently. The second saving puzzle is associated with the various age profiles of household saving rates, which are not only inconsistent with the prediction of the Life Cycle Hypothesis, but also different from the patterns observed in other economies. This paper constructs pseudo‐panel data and empirically examines the applicability of the habit‐formation model in solving the second saving puzzle through the existence of saving rates and the effects of income‐related variables. On the other hand, the parametric changes of such variables help explain the first saving puzzle. The parametric changes possibly stem from the adjustment of habit stock, the rising transitory shocks of income, and the higher expenditure needs for housing.