可计算的一般非均衡模型

本文根据现实世界经济变化的鲜明特征,建立了一个多部门市场经济的可计算非均衡动态模型。该模型突出了市场经济运转中市场中介人的核心作用:即在供求不等的价位上如何促使买卖成交,在生产和消费计划不协调的情况下如何协调生产、交换和消费活动。文章用递归(recursive-programming)方法模拟了市场的非均衡动态过程,部门内、部门间和市场上的反馈系统结构以及各种产品、投入物的存货调节机制和价格形成机制。经济人受约束的理性行为、适应性行为和小心谨慎行为以及若干经济制度特征都按可操作、可运转、可计算的方式进行了详细精致地描述和刻画。     

可计算的一般非均衡模型

本文根据现实世界经济变化的鲜明特征，建立了一个多部门市场经济的可计算非均衡动态模型。该模型突出了市场经济运转中市场中介入的核心作用：即在供求不等的价位上如何促使买卖成交，在生产和消费计划不协调的情况下如何协调生产、交换和消费活动。文章用递归（recursive-programming）方法模拟了市场的非均衡动态过程，部门内、部门间和市场上的反馈系统结构以及各种产品、投入物的存货调节机制和价格形成机制。经济人受约束的理性行为、适应性行为和小心谨慎行为以及若干经济制度特征都按可操作、可运转、可计算的方式进行了详细精致地描述和刻画。     

非均衡劳动力市场的真实经济周期模型

真实经济周期(RBC)模型通常以市场出清的一般均衡为其理论框架。这使我们无法有效的将这一跨时期的动态优化模型应用于现实的经济环境,因为现实的世界里普遍存在着各种非均衡的状况。本文将劳动的供给和需求分离开来,从而允许非均衡的劳动力市场存在。利用美国的数据,我们对该模型进行了实证检验,结果表明该模型能够更好的解释劳动力市场的波动及消费和就业间的关系,同时说明该模型在数据的拟和上比标准RBC模型更好。     

非均衡劳动力市场的真实经济周期模型

真实经济周期(RBC)模型通常以市场出清的一般均衡为其理论框架。这使我们无法有效的将这一跨时期的动态优化模型应用于现实的经济环境，因为现实的世界里普遍存在着各种非均衡的状况。本将劳动的供给和需求分离开来，从而允许非均衡的劳动力市场存在。利用美国的数据，我们对该模型进行了实证检验，结果表明该模型能够更好的解释劳动力市场的波动及消费和就业间的关系，同时说明该模型在数据的拟和上比标准RBC模型更好。     

均衡、非均衡及"错误"的现实意义:市场过程的视角

从市场过程角度来看,均衡是市场过程中行动主体相互发现的倾向。在真实时间和全然无知的现实世界里,企业家发现必然是非均衡过程。在这一过程中,价格的非均衡信息作用极其重要,因为只有非均衡价格提供的利润机会才能激发企业家发现新知识。一旦抛弃新古典经济学的完全知识假设,企业家的发现过程必然具有"错误"、"失败"、"无效率"等特征。如果不借助经济主体"错误"和不断纠正"错误",企业家就不能在争胜竞争过程中发现利润机会,无法解决无效率问题。     

关于均衡经济学的若干问题探讨

本文概述了均衡经济学的基本概念、主要贡献及其局限性。文章用现实世界大量普遍的非均衡现象，揭示了均衡经济学的要害是不符合现实，论证了市场买卖活动是在不均衡的情况下进行的这一市场经济的本质特征。文章倡导在对均衡经济学融会贯通的基础上，根据现实世界的鲜明特征对它进行批判、修正和发展，从而走向一个现实世界的经济学。     

我国农业节水灌溉市场非均衡研究

灌溉用水市场均衡是理想状态,非均衡是经常状态.本文首先构建节水灌溉市场均衡模型,然后再构建了农业节水灌溉市场的非均衡模型,并提出节水灌溉市场非均衡度指标以衡量非均衡程度.造成我国农业节水灌溉市场非均衡的主要原因有:国情、水质恶化、水的使用效率低、节水灌溉设施落后、节水灌溉技术落后、认识上的落后、水市场还未建立起来、缺乏激励机制等.对此,我们要努力解决农业灌溉市场的非均衡.     

基于人力资本视角的劳动力市场非均衡分析

以非均衡理论为基础,构建了具有人力资本因素的劳动力市场非均衡模型,探讨了引入人力资本因素后非均衡劳动力市场如何变化,以及在不同的非均衡区域的劳动力市场供求关系的变化对人力资本因素的要求和影响,据此提出了相应的经济决策方法和建议。     

演化、转轨与市场过程理论视角的渐进改革

文章认为,基于主流经济学的激进改革思路,无法解释制度演化的多样性与开放性。渐进式改革强调路径渐进、演化、零碎的特征,与更适合解释现实世界的演化经济学、转轨经济学以及市场过程理论的逻辑一致。考虑非正式制度的内生渐进演化特征,迄今为止的渐进改革模式具有理论与现实的合理性。     

经济运行中的预期行为

<正> 现实的市场机制不是象一架预定好程序的机械装置那样按步就班地运动,而是在充满大量不确定因素、不完全竞争和非均衡的条件下发挥作用的。每个市场参与者的决策,在本质上是对供求变化和竞争对手决策的预期。预期作为微观主体行为的事先约束,构成市场运动过程的关键性内生变量,影响甚至决定着宏观经济政策的效应如何。传统的社会主义政治经济学不但不研究预期这一重要的微观决策变量,有时还把对预期因素的研究斥之为“主观心理因素决定论”,这在某种意义上堵死了深入认识经济运行机制的又一条门径。我国经济体制     

Inflation model of a semicommand economy

A semicommand economy can be defined as a system where the pricing of goods is influenced by the market but where the prices of production factors are under control of the state. The model presents various pricing and economic policy measures to deal with inflation. It is constructed as a dynamic supply-side focused, input-output model which differentiates nominal and real movements. It examines the possible responses of prices and the volume of production to certain measures or programmes to counteract inflation. The cases described are based on the present day Yugoslav economy.     

Satiation in an evolutionary model of structural economic dynamics

This paper presents the problem of satiation of consumption and technology in relation to a model of evolutionary endogenous growth. The model represents an attempt to provide an evolutionary economic micro foundation to Pasinetti's scheme of the structural economic dynamics of an economy that is based on only labour and knowledge. The micro foundation is based on a set of rules that makes endogenous the demand coefficients, the labour coefficients, and the number of available sectors. Through process innovations firms increase their productivities with respect to individual goods, but a growth slowdown takes place unless the benefits from specialisation are exploited at still higher levels. Another cause for slowdown is related to an Engelian hierarchy of goods. As the standard of living grows, existing sectors and consumption goods satiate, so new sectors need to be provided by product innovations in a sufficient pace to keep up with the labour that is displaced from old sectors.     

Competition,taxation and economic growth

The paper mainly examines the relationship between economic growth, tax policy and sectoral labor distribution in an endogenous growth model with expanding varieties. For analyzing these relationships, we consider an economy where three sectors of production are vertically integrated: final goods sector, intermediate goods sector and research sector. We show that the extent of imperfect competition in the intermediate products market affects both economic growth and the allocation of the available labor to all the sectors employing this input. The resources from capital taxation, which are used for financing research sector, have a U-shaped effect on growth and lead to a movement of the labor from research sector to final goods sector. Additionally, we show that if there exists a higher competitive structure in an economy, the probability of the positive effect of an increase in tax on growth gets higher.     

Franchise fee, competition and economic growth

This paper introduces the different kinds of franchise contract bargaining into a macroeconomic model and accordingly researches the relationship between competition and economic growth. In Nash bargaining model/vertical integration we find an inverted-U shaped or a monotonically increasing relationship between the competitive degree of the intermediate goods market and economic growth. In bargaining of the right to manage model/vertical non-integration our result shows an inverted-U shaped or a monotonically decreasing relationship between the competitive degree of the intermediate goods market and economic growth. In addition, there is an overall negative relationship between the competitive degree of the final goods market and economic growth. Especially, our interesting findings that the pricing rule for intermediate goods firm depends not only on market power but also bargaining power are more general. Therefore, we can further explain the firms' vertical control strategy.     

Policy tolerance of economic crime? An empirical analysis of the effect of counterfeiting on Italian trade

Some governments seem ambivalent towards economic crime because, on the one hand, there are adverse effects on competition and legal businesses; on the other hand, there are benefits through (shadow) employment and income in less-developed areas, as well as benefits through relations of political clientage. We focus on counterfeiting and its economic effects on trade in Italy during the economic crisis. Using a newly built regional dataset and a dynamic panel model, we find evidence of the dual impact of counterfeiting. The production (and exchange) of fake goods depresses the legal market that relies on intellectual property rights but supports shadow-economic activities for the benefit of illegal workers, criminal organisations, and political clientele. We show that the negative effects outweigh the positive effects.     

健康、教育与经济增长

健康与教育是人力资本诸多形成方式中最重要的两种,长期以来内生增长理论强调和重视教育人力资本对于经济增长的贡献和作用,但健康与教育之间的相互影响以及健康人力资本对于经济增长的作用却未得到应有的重视。基于此,本文在Lucas(1988),Van Zon和Muysken(2001)模型基础上,构建了一个包含最终产品、健康和教育的三部门模型。静态均衡、转移动态和仿真实验的结果表明:在总体人力资本的形成过程中,健康对广义人力资本的贡献份额大于教育;健康的增量而非健康人力资本存量水平有利于长期经济增长;健康的改善必须同时辅以教育人力资本的提高才能促进经济增长;政府公共健康支出对于健康人力资本的形成具有重要作用,有助于促进发展机会的均等和减贫;重视人力资本积累的经济体在10-15年后会呈现明显的经济绩效的改善。     

汇率制度、经济开放度与中国需求政策的有效性

在全球经济金融一体化的背景下,中国对外经济开放度的提高对需求、供给政策的有效性产生了复杂深刻的影响。本文通过构建OR模型分析框架,分析了不同汇率制度下金融市场和商品市场一体化程度对需求政策、利率泰勒规则、财政供给和劳动供给政策有效性的影响。根据理论分析和数值模拟以及以中国年度数据进行实证检验,提出了一个可检验的假说,表明开放条件宏观政策的有效性取决于商品市场和金融市场一体化程度及二者的相互作用。     

Home production and Social Security reform

This paper incorporates home production into a dynamic general equilibrium model of overlapping generations with endogenous retirement to study Social Security reforms. Specifically, home production takes housing, home input, and home hours as inputs and produces a good that is substitutable with market good. As such, the model differentiates both consumption goods and labor effort according to their respective roles in home production and market activities. Using a calibrated model, we conduct a policy experiment where we eliminate the current pay-as-you-go Social Security system. We find that the experiment has important implications for labor supply as well as consumption decisions and that these decisions are influenced by the presence of the home production technology. More importantly, comparing our economy to a one-good economy without home production, the welfare gains of eliminating Social Security are magnified significantly especially in the long run. The reasons are twofold and related to the general aspects of home production. First, home production implies a more elastic labor supply rendering the payroll labor tax more distortionary. Second, home production introduces insurance possibilities that are not present when only market-produced goods are available and, thus, reduces the need for government redistributive policies.     

Horizontal innovation-based growth and product market competition

The influence of the intensity of competition in the product market on economic growth is analyzed by developing an endogenous growth model with horizontal innovation. Product market competition is measured by (1 − Lerner index) and depends on both the share of factor inputs in total income and the degree of substitutability across goods. We find that the shape of the relationship between competition and growth can change dramatically according to which proxy of competition is used. We explain our results in terms of the interplay between the resource allocation and the profit incentive effects.     

土地一级市场垄断与地方公共品供给

在当前制度背景下,地方政府既是公共品的提供者,又是垄断了土地交易一级市场、"经营"土地的"企业家".本文建立一个理论模型阐明了,尽管垄断更多的国有土地能够放松财政约束,但均衡时地方政府会将更多的财政资源投入到能让土地增值和未来税收增长的基础设施建设中,教育、医疗和社会保障等公共服务并不一定是宽裕财政收入的受益者.利用全国284个地级市2003--2008年的面板数据的实证研究发现:在控制住其他变量后,地方政府垄断更多国有土地转让会显著增加经济性公共品的供给,非经济性公共品的供给则会显著下降.