政策组合能否促进民参军企业协同创新——基于演化博弈的数值仿真视角

军民科技协同创新是构建军民一体化国家战略体系和能力的重要内容,营造良好的政策环境是推进军民科技协同创新的重要方式。以民参军企业、科研院所和政府为博弈主体构建三方博弈演化模型,通过系统分析政策支持对博弈主体策略选择的影响过程,利用Matlab数值仿真分析不同政策及政策组合支持对民参军企业与科研院所协同创新的影响。结果表明,政府对不同创新主体应采用不同组合政策支持,直接政策与间接政策对鼓励民参军企业开展协同创新更加有效,营造良好的创新环境有利于科研院所选择协同创新策略;政府需要采用合理的政策组合支持军民协同创新,中强度的直接与间接政策以及低强度的创新环境政策组合相较单一政策支持对民参军企业与科研院所协同创新更有效。     

军民融合企业技术创新生态系统协同机制研究

本文在共生视角下研究军民融合企业技术创新生态系统的协同演化机制,分析政府干预下"学研机构—军民融合企业"的主从博弈策略,探讨"政企学研"组成的技术创新生态系统在独立生存合作、协同创新合作和联盟共存合作三个阶段的运作机理.主要考虑两种政府干预情境:一种是针对一般技术创新,政府不进行补贴激励;另一种是针对高精尖技术创新,政府会对其进行补贴激励.针对两种政府干预情境和三个演化阶段,采用主从博弈分别确定学研机构的技术创新程度和技术转移费用以及军民融合企业的边际收益.研究表明:学研机构和军民融合企业采用成本分担机制共同进行技术研发,有助于提高技术创新程度;协同创新合作阶段的成本分担机制可使创新生态系统获得帕累托改进;在大部分情形下不存在使学研机构和军民融合企业都满意的创新成本分担契约;联盟共存合作阶段的利润共享机制可以消除创新生态系统的双重边际效应,获得帕累托最优.     

军民融合型科技工业协同创新体系构建研究

军民融合型科技工业协同创新体系是国防科技工业和国家高科技产业发展的基础与内在动力。基于国际比较视角,从激励机制、约束机制及法律政策保障等方面比较美日德等发达国军民融合型协同创新体系发展情况,构建我国军民融合型科技工业协同创新体系,探讨“国防需求拉动”、“民用需求拉动”和“科学研究推动”3种动力机制下军民融合型科技工业协同创新体系运行模式。     

军民融合型科技工业协同创新体系构建研究——基于国际比较视角

军民融合型科技工业协同创新体系是国防科技工业和国家高科技产业发展的基础与内在动力。基于国际比较视角,从激励机制、约束机制及法律政策保障等方面比较美日德等发达国军民融合型协同创新体系发展情况,构建我国军民融合型科技工业协同创新体系,探讨"国防需求拉动"、"民用需求拉动"和"科学研究推动"3种动力机制下军民融合型科技工业协同创新体系运行模式。     

军民融合协同创新绩效评估及影响因子研究

运用因子分析法,从军民融合协同创新合作伙伴协同配合度、协同创新主体能力和协同创新外部环境3个方面构建评价体系,评估长株潭地区军民融合协同创新中心、研究院、军民结合产业园与企业的协同创新绩效及影响因子。研究结果表明：军民融合协同创新中心自身创新能力较强,但在合作伙伴协同配合度上得分较低;协同创新研究院在协调合作伙伴配合度和获得外部市场、政府、中介等支持方面有较好表现,但还应筛选更多适合转化的科研成果,实现协同创新与知识产权联动;军民融合协同创新中企业的创新能力较弱。     

军民融合协同创新绩效评估及影响因子研究——以长株潭地区为例

运用因子分析法,从军民融合协同创新合作伙伴协同配合度、协同创新主体能力和协同创新外部环境3个方面构建评价体系,评估长株潭地区军民融合协同创新中心、研究院、军民结合产业园与企业的协同创新绩效及影响因子。研究结果表明:军民融合协同创新中心自身创新能力较强,但在合作伙伴协同配合度上得分较低;协同创新研究院在协调合作伙伴配合度和获得外部市场、政府、中介等支持方面有较好表现,但还应筛选更多适合转化的科研成果,实现协同创新与知识产权联动;军民融合协同创新中企业的创新能力较弱。     

科技型小微企业与科技型大企业协同创新策略研究

在对科技型小微企业协同创新主体关系进行分析的基础上,运用演化博弈理论构建科技型小微企业与科技型大企业协同创新动态演化博弈模型,分析博弈双方在创新中的动态演化过程。研究表明：博弈双方的技术研发整合转化能力、创新资源和企业文化、资源协同利用效应系数、协同创新的科技成本、协同创新的利润分配比例和协同创新的成功概率是影响科技型小微企业与科技型大企业协同创新的关键因素,在此基础上提出了协同创新策略。     

科技型小微企业与科技型大企业协同创新策略研究——基于动态演化博弈视角

在对科技型小微企业协同创新主体关系进行分析的基础上,运用演化博弈理论构建科技型小微企业与科技型大企业协同创新动态演化博弈模型,分析博弈双方在创新中的动态演化过程。研究表明:博弈双方的技术研发整合转化能力、创新资源和企业文化、资源协同利用效应系数、协同创新的科技成本、协同创新的利润分配比例和协同创新的成功概率是影响科技型小微企业与科技型大企业协同创新的关键因素,在此基础上提出了协同创新策略。     

长江经济带军民融合协同创新体系建设研究

当前,中国经济进入“新常态”,建设长江经济带、推进军民深度融合、实施创新驱动发展成为国家重大战略,三大战略交汇了区域协同发展构想和经济建设与国防建设融合发展理念。通过分析推进长江经济带军民融合协同创新的现实基础、主要问题及内在机理,构建了长江经济带军民融合协同创新“四位一体”的总体框架,并提出了推进长江经济带军民融合协同创新的对策建议。     

军民科技协同创新要素融合机制研究

构建一体化国家战略体系和能力是新时代实施军民融合战略的重要目标，军民科技协同创新则是实现该目标的必然选择。基于扎根理论建立军民科技协同创新影响因素体系，通过分析影响因素间的交互关系构建系统动力学模型。根据模型对案例进行仿真分析，考察单因素作用、多因素协同作用、多因素非协同作用条件下协同创新水平变化情况。从军民科技协同创新内涵、结构、功能实现3个层面揭示要素融合机制。据此，为国家军民深度融合提供相应政策建议。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.     

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth*

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth are identified. Included is a discussion of his contributions on: the determinants of differences in speed of adoption of innovations; the use of patents to measure technology; the private and social returns to R&D; and spillover effects from R&D. Griliches's own evaluation of his research contribution is compared to the evaluation of others in the field, using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the online Web of Science. Griliches's most important contribution is his 1957 Econometrica hybrid corn paper that is a foundation of the economics of technological innovation. Remarkably, the trend in annual citations to the paper has continued to increase for over 40 years. Finally, we summarize Griliches's most recent views on the practice of economics and on the most important unanswered questions in the economics of technology and growth.     

Evidence on the impact of R&D and ICT investments on innovation and productivity in Italian firms

Both research and development (R&D) and information and communication technology (ICT) investment have been identified as sources of relative innovation underperformance in Europe vis-à-vis the USA. In this article, we investigate the R&D and ICT investment at the firm level in an effort to assess their relative importance and to what extent they are complements or substitutes. We use data on a large unbalanced panel data sample of Italian manufacturing firms constructed from four consecutive waves of a survey of manufacturing firms, to estimate a version of the CDM model of R&D, innovation, and productivity [Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse 1998. Research, innovation and productivity: An econometric analysis at the firm level. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 7, no. 2: 115–58] that has been modified to include ICT investment and R&D as the two main inputs into innovation and productivity. We find that R&D and ICT are both strongly associated with innovation and productivity, with R&D being more important for innovation, and ICT investment being more important for productivity. For the median firm, rates of return to both investments are so high that they suggest considerably underinvestment in both these activities. We explore the possible complementarity between R&D and ICT in innovation and production, but find none, although we do find complementarity between R&D and worker skill in innovation.     

新员工主动社会化行为与组织承诺关系研究——以社会资本为中介变量

为了探索新员工主动社会化行为影响组织承诺的过程,本文对来自企业的401个有效样本进行了实证分析。本研究运用层级回归的方法,控制了人口统计变量的影响后,发现员工的搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为对组织承诺有直接的正面影响,同时,通过员工社会资本对员工组织承诺产生了间接的正面影响。社会资本在员工搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为影响组织承诺的机制中起部分中介作用。员工的关系构建行为对组织承诺没有显著影响,但对员工社会资本存在显著的正面影响。