投资者关系管理对资本市场可见度的影响

本文以深圳证券交易所2005年上市公司为研究对象,分析影响资本市场可见度的公司结构性特征和制度性特征两类因素,考察投资者关系管理对这两类因素可见度效应的调节作用,研究发现上市公司投资者关系管理水平对公司的市场价值特征和股权结构、董事会等制度性特征的调节作用明显,可以显著提高资本市场可见度。上市公司应重视投资者关系管理等自主性治理活动的开展。     

福建省科技产出单指标效率影响因素分析

运用多元回归分析法,对福建省科技产出单指标效率影响因素进行定量分析,研究得到影响科技产出单指标效率的主要因素,为福建省制定科技资源配置的宏观调控政策提供参考依据.     

退出、呼吁与忠诚理论对“离职”现象研究的启示

现有＂离职＂研究主要将＂离职＂作为结果进行相关影响因素的静态分析。而赫希曼则提供了一个动态的视角,展示出人们在认知到组织＂松弛＂并对组织产生不满的情况下,是如何决定＂退出＂的;以及在这一过程中,成员对所在组织的＂忠诚＂是如何引发另一种回应机制＂呼吁＂发挥效用的。接着,赫希曼又解释了组织形态或者制度设计对人们的＂退出＂与＂呼吁＂选择的影响。     

组织的创新与创造力:基于个体视角的综述

个体层面的创造性是组织创造力的基础,通过综述的形式,对影响组织的创新与创造力的个体的因素进行了系统的梳理与分析,发现影响组织创新与创造力的个体层面因素主要包括:等多种因素,并对未来可能的研究方向进行了展望。分析个体因素通过环境、任务过程中等对组织创新与创造力的影响,为未来理论发展和实践进步提供新的视角。     

人力资源管理主要影响因素的类型学分析——基于矩阵的“四分法”基础

近年来,类型学或类型研究在组织和人力资源管理领域取得了丰硕成果。但基于理论的资源基础观、组织战略和业务类型等研究大多相对独立并缺乏整合。引进类型学的理念,可以发掘其中的潜在联系,从而分类建立人力资源管理主要影响因素的研究脉络。这有助于通盘认识人力资源管理的主要影响和决定因素,全面理解人力资源管理的目的和内涵,建立以理论为基础的分类逻辑,从而更好地指导和发展人力资源管理实践。     

中国开征碳税的政策后果预测

本文是对开征碳税的各种政策后果进行情景模拟的定量研究,既有短期的比较静态分析,又有长期的动态效应分析。在一定的假设条件下模拟分析了计征碳税对于GDP、投资、消费、外贸、物价等主要宏观经济指标的静态和动态影响,以及对居民收入和企业利润的效应。同时深入分析了计征碳税对石油、煤炭、天然气、电力等四类主要行业的碳排放、产量、进出口、价格、税负、成本、利润的影响效应。     

资源基础观的微观基础探寻:领导者对组织资源获取的影响

对资源基础观、资源依赖理论、企业家精神、动态能力等理论进行整合,将组织资源获取过程划分为资源识别、资源外部获取、资源内部积累3个阶段,并提出了8种领导者影响组织资源获取的途径,可为研究资源基础观的微观基础提供一个系统分析视角,为领导有效性研究提供启示。     

中日知识产权密集产业内贸易水平及影响因素研究

利用2005-2014年中日知识产权密集产业贸易数据,综合运用产业内贸易静态指数、动态指数、分类指数,研究中日知识产权密集产业内贸易水平.同时,对影响中日知识产权密集产业内贸易的因素进行实证研究.静态指标和动态指标研究结果表明,中日知识产权密集产业贸易以产业间贸易为主;分类指标显示,两国产业内贸易整体以水平型为主;影响中日知识产权密集产业内贸易的因素可能包括两国GDP差异、两国市场规模、中国商品和服务进出口总额、贸易开放度,其中中日市场规模对两国知识产权密集产业类贸易影响最为显著.     

商品期货与现货价格关系研究综述

文章从静态和动态两方面对商品价格期限结构的研究理论基础做出分析，以此为基础，对商品价格期限结构模型的构建前提、方法和考虑因素进行说明，并就国外学者对商品价格期限结构单因素、双因素和三因素模型的研究给与全面分析和介绍，以一个较系统、有逻辑的框架，对国外商品价格期限结构研究进行了充分分析和完整介绍。     

体育产业竞争力评价指标体系的建立

文章采用层次分析法和指标赋权的方法,在对体育产业竞争力的组成要求和影响因素进行分析的基础上,遵循科学性、实用性、动态分析与静态分析相结合、硬指标与软指标相结合的原则,设计出体育产业竞争力评价指标体系,并通过层次分析法对评价指标作进一步筛选、对评价指标赋权,得到最终评价体系。     

控股股东股权质押对企业创新方向的影响——股权制衡与企业可视性的调节作用

控股股东股权质押是中国资本市场中的一种普遍现象，虽然学者们围绕控股股东股权质押对企业创新的影响已经展开了诸多探讨，但鲜有研究关注控股股东股权质押与企业创新方向之间的逻辑关系。以中国2003-2017年A股上市公司为研究对象，从突破式创新和渐进式创新视角，探究控股股东股权质押与企业创新方向之间的逻辑关系，并进一步考察企业股权制衡和企业可视性在其间的调节作用。实证结果显示：控股股东股权质押会抑制企业突破式创新，但不会对企业渐进式创新产生显著影响；随着股权制衡不断增加，控股股东股权质押对企业突破式创新的抑制作用先增强、后削弱，即股权制衡在控股股东股权质押与企业突破式创新之间起着U型调节作用；企业可视性会削弱控股股东股权质押对企业突破式创新的抑制作用。结论有助于更加辩证地认识股权质押的创新后果，对促进企业创新和完善公司治理机制亦具有启示意义。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.