伊犁巩留县气象灾害应急管理体制完善对策分析

近年来,巩留县气象灾害频发,给当地居民生活造成了极大的损失。建立健全巩留县气象灾害应急管理机制,不断完善应急管理体系,对提升巩留县防灾、减灾和灾后重建工作具有重要的现实意义。在介绍巩留县气象局应急管理体系情况的基础上,分析了巩留县气象灾害应急管理现状,并提出相应对策建议。     

美国重大气象灾害与服务经济技术分析

美国是当今世界自然灾害多发的国家之一,在灾害监测、预警、应急救助及防灾减灾决策支持系统建设等方面均处于世界领先地位。为使国内对美国应对重大气象灾害的先进经验有所借鉴,本文结合美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）公布的有关资料,对美国重大气象灾害发生的种类、时空分布规律、经济社会影响及其气象科技基础设施与服务业的地位和作用进行了系统的经济技术实证分析,并提出了相关建议,供参考。     

加拿大应对重大气候灾害的经验和措施

加拿大大部分地区地处北美寒冷地带,在漫长的冬季,寒冷时间较长,且暴风雪较多,十分恶劣的冰雪天气给加拿大带来了巨大的损失,也使加拿大积累了很多应对严重自然灾害的经验,逐步摸索了很多有效的措施。 本文重点介绍一些加拿大在应对严重自然灾害和突发事件方面的经验和措施,如：通过立法规范重大自然灾害和突发事件的管理工作,建立全社会的防灾减灾责任机制和服务体系,充分做好灾害前准备工作,重视气候变化和防灾减灾领域的研究、加强防灾减灾科研投入,政府的正确引导和全民教育,先进的气候预报预警,全方位的信息服务,有组织的统一行动等,供有关方面参考。     

提高公众灾害意识增强公众应对气象灾害能力

我国是气象灾害多发国家,2009年7月11日重庆市云阳县潭獐峡“驴友”突遇暴雨、2008年9月24日四川省北川县地震灾民遭遇大暴雨、2005年6月10日黑龙江省宁安市沙兰镇遭遇暴雨引发的山洪等三起重大气象灾害中,受灾公众如有一定的气象灾害意识,是完全可以避免灾害的,至少可以降低灾害损失。这三起灾害,以血的教训揭示了气象灾害意识对于防灾减灾的重要性。应从深入开展气象灾害防御知识的宣传教育、做好防灾减灾演练、重点培养中小学学生气象灾害意识等方面提高我国公众的气象灾害意识,增强应对突发气象灾害的能力。     

宣传普及气象知识强化防灾应对能力

天气与人类的社会生活关系日益密切,要达到防灾减灾的目的,其基础在于加强民众对气候变化的认识,因此,宣传和普及气象知识,已成为我国气象事业发展战略的重要组成部分.     

日本重大气候灾害的影响及其对策与技术措施研究

本文介绍了重大气候灾害对日本经济社会的影响,日本通过建立和完善各种应对措施,提高全社会的防灾减灾能力,积极利用遥感遥测技术,提高灾害气候的监测预警水平,积极开展长期气候研究,努力把握气候变化规律等有力措施,力求最大限度减少灾害损失.日本依靠科学技术提高灾害气候的监测预报水平,对我国防灾减灾提供了有益的启示.     

黑龙江省主要气象灾害及防灾减灾对策

分析了黑龙江省常见气象灾害的主要特点、发展趋势以及对经济社会发展所产生的影响,针对主要气象灾害提出了防灾减灾对策：加强气象监测和探测系统建设,获取高密度多层次大气信息,提高灾害性天气的预报准确率;加强气象灾害防御工程手段的研究,降低气象灾害的危害程度;加强社会经济发展规划管理有效避免灾害损失。     

气象应急服务案例分析与思考

通过对2006—2010年期间气象应急服务案例进行统计,总结了陕西省气象台在气象应急服务过程中采取的措施,剖析了气象应急服务的成功经验及不足之处,以期为提高气象应急服务效率,科学防灾减灾提供有益的借鉴。     

重庆市交通防灾减灾应急能力分析

随着重庆市经济社会快速发展和城市现代化水平不断提高,灾害事件对其功能正常发挥的影响程度和波及范围也越来越大。建立交通应急系统,增强城市交通应急能力和防灾减灾能力,是重庆市交通面临的一项重要课题。     

我国灾害应对体系的经济学再思考

我国是世界上自然灾害发生最多、最严重的国家之一。随着全球气候变化,我国各种自然灾害频繁发生,破坏程度越来越强,影响越来越复杂,应对难度越来越大。为应对呈增加趋势的自然灾害,我国政府在长期的灾害斗争中也形成了一套有效的应对体系,但作为发展中国家,由于存在着社会、经济、文化观念等诸多发展中产生的问题,我国的灾害应对体系也必然存在不足,特别是从经济角度来看,需要在防灾、抗灾、救灾三个层面上加以完善。     

Distributional Preferences and the Incidence of Costs and Benefits in Climate Change Policy

We explore the relationship between willingness to pay (WTP) for climate change mitigation and distributional preferences, by which we mean individuals’ opinions about who should be responsible for climate change prevention and whether the share of climate change impacts borne by the poor is a cause for concern. We use 1,770 responses to an online stated preference survey. The domestic costs in our survey’s policy choice scenarios are expressed as a set of randomized shares across four different payment vehicles, and the international cost shares are randomized across four groups of countries. We also elicit respondents’ perceptions of the likely regressivity of climate change impacts under a policy of business-as-usual. WTP is higher when larger cost shares are borne by parties deemed to bear a greater responsibility for mitigation, and when respondents believe (and care) that the impacts of climate change may be borne disproportionately by the world’s poor. That WTP for an environmental policy depends on the distributional consequences of the policy is an unsettling result: efficiency assessments are typically assumed to be separate from equity considerations in most benefit-cost analyses.     

法国气象预警机制及其启示

本文主要分析介绍了法国气象预警机制的如下情况：气象预警的目的、方式、对象、合作伙伴、成功事例及我们的体会与建议。事实证明,面对全球气候异常多端的变化所带来的严峻挑战,法国广泛普及灾害天气知识,建立先进的灾害预警机制和减灾机制,并加强灾难风险研究与评估等卓效措施,充分显示出做好这些工作的必要性、重要性及有效性,值得我国借鉴和学习。     

基于国际经验的中国国家公园气候 变化应对路径

国家公园等自然保护地既是气候变化影响的敏感 区,也是减缓气候变化的重要载体。纵观世界上多个国家气候 变化应对历程发现,国家公园等自然保护地是应对气候变化的 先行者与探索者。而面对气候变化的重要议题,中国国家公园 尚处于初步研究阶段,缺乏系统的应对战略。选取国家公园 气候变化应对开展较早、体系完善及具有特色的6个国家和地 区,梳理其战略、政策与实践经验,从科研、减缓、适应和 教育4个方面总结其应对途径,并提出中国国家公园气候变化 应对的4条路径：充分凝结共识,鼓励多方参与;夯实科研基 础,形成前沿基地;战略规划指导,分级分区落实;适应减缓 并重,提升气候能力。     

Adoption of climate change mitigation practices by risk-averse farmers in the Ashanti Region,Ghana

Uncertainty and risk-aversion are notably absent in the modeling of farmers' adoption of climate change mitigation practices in developing countries even though most of the agricultural mitigation practices also have effects on yield variability. The objective of this paper is to explore the implications for climate change mitigation projects of modeling farmers as risk neutral while in actuality they behave as risk-averse agents. Results indicate that when risk averse farmers are modeled as risk-neutral agents, the size of the incentives needed to induce participation to a carbon sequestration program is miscalculated with serious implications either for the success for projects that aim at compensating for climate change mitigation services or for the economic efficiency of such projects.     

Identification of national priority areas for adaptation to climate change in China

The problem of global warming has been identified as the first in the list of the top ten environmental problems in the world. As climate change will seriously affect the social and natural world that people live in, so it may lay serious repercussions on economic progress, social improvement, and sustainable development. International bodies everywhere and many of the countries＇ governments are responding urgently to this call In recent years, climate change has affected different regions in China in different ways. In its national agenda, the Chinese government should address the problem of climate change and its negative impact on socio-economic development. In this endeavor the nation should introduce policies which will help its people and economy to adapt to these effects and changes. Priority-fields of adaptation to climate change are the sensitive areas or departments which are more vulnerable to the negative influences of climate change. The negative impacts of climate change in some parts of China are considered to be very serious indeed as they affect the whole economy and community. As a result, priority should be given to these more affected regions for the limited state financing. This paper defines adaptation and discusses the basic principles and programs in the identi.fication of national priority areas where adaptation should be exercised. Based on the past studies, four priority areas in China are identified, namely, disaster prevention and mitigation, water resources, agriculture, and ecosystem. An analysis on the identification procedures, and the reasons and tasks involved are given for each.     

International support of climate change policies in developing countries: Strategic, moral and fairness aspects

International transfers in climate policy channeled from the industrialized to the developing world either support the mitigation of climate change or the adaptation to global warming. From a purely allocative point of view, transfers supporting mitigation tend to be Pareto-improving whereas this is not very likely in the case of adaptation support. We illustrate this by regarding transfer schemes currently applied under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto framework.However, if we enrich the analysis by integrating distributional aspects, we find that international adaptation funding may help both the developing and developed world. Interestingly this is not due to altruistic incentives, but due to follow-up effects on international negotiations on climate change mitigation. We argue that the lack of fairness perceived by developing countries in the international climate policy arena can be reduced by the support of adaptation in these countries. As we show - taking into account different fairness concepts - this might raise the prospects of success in international negotiations on climate change. Yet, we find that the influence of transfers may induce different fairness effects on climate change mitigation negotiations to run counter.We discuss whether current transfer schemes under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto framework adequately serve the distributive and allocative objectives pursued in international climate policy.     

Adaptation,mitigation and risk-taking in climate policy

The future consequences of climate change are highly uncertain and estimates of economic damages differ widely. Governments try to cope with these risks by investing in mitigation and adaptation measures. In contrast to most of the existing literature, we explicitly model the decision of risk averse governments on mitigation and adaptation policies. We also consider the interaction of the two strategies in presence of uncertainty. Mitigation efforts of a single country trigger crowding out as other countries will reduce their mitigation efforts. This may even lead to lower mitigation on the global scale. In contrast, a unilateral commitment to large adaptation efforts benefits the single country and can reduce the global risk from climate change at the expense of other countries.     

Willingness to Pay for Ancillary Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation

Assessing the Willingness to Pay (WTP) of the general public for climate change mitigation programmes enables governments to understand how much taxpayers are willing to support the implementation of such programs. This paper contributes to the literature on the WTP for climate change mitigation programmes by investigating, in addition to global benefits, the ancillary benefits of climate change mitigation. It does so by considering local and personal benefits arising from climate change policies. The Contingent Valuation Method is used to elicit the WTP for ancillary and global benefits of climate mitigation policies in the Basque Country, Spain. Results show that WTP estimates are 53–73% higher when ancillary benefits are considered.     

Popular Support for Climate Change Mitigation: Evidence from a General Population Mail Survey

Using a sample of 1,651 US households, we explore some determinants of willingness to pay (WTP) for climate change mitigation programs. Our mail survey had a relatively low response rate, so we first use several additional data sources to build a detailed sample selection model. This model uses features of the survey instrument, measures of geographic vulnerability to climate change, seasonality, the political mix in the county, attributes of the address or addressee, and a set of factor scores from an extensive factor analysis of all census tracts in the US. We estimate this model jointly with a model to explain climate policy preferences as a function of the domestic and international distribution of policy costs as well as the climate change impacts that each respondent believes will occur under a policy of business-as-usual. Despite statistically significant patterns of nonresponse, selectivity effects are minimal in this case. WTP for climate change mitigation is greater when the domestic incidence of mitigation costs is borne mostly through higher energy taxes. It is also greater when costs are understood to be shared internationally with other groups of countries, rather than being borne mostly by a country group including the US. People are generally more willing to pay for climate change mitigation if they believe that the harm caused by climate change impacts will be substantial, rather than just moderate. The assistance of former UCLA undergraduate students Ivka Adam, Tashi Ghale, Michelle Gogolewski, Vilija Gulbinas, and Lindy Olsson was essential to survey development and administration. This paper is based upon work supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 9818875 to UCLA, with additional support from the Raymond F. Mikesell Foundation at the University of Oregon. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of either the National Science Foundation or ICF International.