顾客参与企业产品创新的文献回顾和未来展望

文章基于国内外顾客参与企业产品创新的已有研究,对顾客参与产品创新的动机、参与绩效、参与程度进行了重点评述。参与动机既有需求满足等内在动机,又有对奖励的期望等外在动机;参与绩效表现在时间绩效和创新绩效两个维度,顾客参与可以加快新产品上市速度,但顾客参与对创新绩效的影响有必要结合具体的行业进行分析;参与程度分为参与广度、参与深度和参与强度三个方面,顾客参与创新过程主要包括了创意产生、产品设计开发和商业化三个阶段,产品创新前期,顾客与企业的互动程度保持在较高水平,产品创新的中期和后期,顾客扮演了联合创造者的角色,从创意生成到商业化,顾客参与的时间、频率、数量等会发生变化。基于上述分析,文章提出了未来研究应着重参与形式整合研究、参与过程风险研究、网络环境下顾客参与研究以及创新中顾客公民行为研究。     

Regulators Markets And Standards Coordination: Policy Lessons From Telepoint

Using quarterly data for 56 new ethical-drug products launched between 1989 and 1996, we estimate the coefficients of a regression equation that has cumulative future sales beyond the forecast period as its dependent variable and third-quarter sales, post-launch product improvements and promotional activities, pre-launch product quality and speed to market, and market growth as the independent variables. We find the future success of a new product to be detectable as early as the third quarter after launch, and that while post-launch promotional activities can contribute to that success, if the product has not shown signs of life by the third quarter it is unlikely to do so afterwards. The implication is that being first to the market can contribute to the success of a new drug, as can having the highest-quality drug, though neither being first nor being best is necessary. Rather, a new drug can be both the first and the best in its product category, but if strong signs of success do not appear within nine months after launch, the drug is likely to be fighting a losing uphill battle thereafter, even in a growing market. Or, at least in pharmaceuticals, you get only one bite at the cherry.     

众包能力对新产品开发模糊前端绩效的影响

在开放式创新情境下，企业对模糊前端众包任务、创意和流程的有效管理是推动产品创意进入新产品开发后端，提升模糊前端绩效的关键，但众包能力影响模糊前端绩效的过程机理仍不明确。基于信息处理理论，构建众包能力、市场不确定性、技术不确定性与模糊前端绩效作用关系的理论模型，利用287份企业问卷调研数据对研究假设及影响路径进行实证检验。研究结果表明：众包能力对降低市场不确定性、技术不确定性和提高模糊前端绩效均有显著正向影响；降低市场不确定性及技术不确定性在众包能力与模糊前端绩效间起部分中介作用。     

When do product architectures mirror organisational architectures? The combined role of product complexity and the rate of technological change

In the modularity literature, an architectural decomposition and ‘mirroring’ between task boundaries, knowledge boundaries, and firm boundaries has been suggested as a way to enhance managerial efficiency and as a source of potential strategic advantage. Despite its intuitive appeal, empirical support for ‘mirroring’ is significant but mixed. In this paper, we utilise an industrial economics and knowledge-based perspective to hypothesise how the combined effects of product architecture type, product complexity and the rate of product component change may influence task, knowledge and firm boundaries and hence be associated with either phases of mirroring or non-mirroring (‘misting’). We suggest that whether mirroring or misting is an efficient strategic choice is influenced by the characteristics of both the product architecture and the rate of technological change at the product component level, and changes across time as products evolve. Our framework helps to reconcile existing mixed evidence and provides the foundation for further empirical research.     

易发生价格竞争的产业特征及企业策略

价格竞争已是我国企业惯常采用的策略行为。本文以彩电行业为例 ,从产品特征、产业生命周期等 6大方面揭示了易发生价格竞争的产业特征 ,提出产业内企业可行的价格战应对策略 ,其结论具有一般性 ,并为预测价格战的发生提供了微观基础。     

Predicting the competitive relationships of industrial production between Taiwan and China using Lotka–Volterra model

This work is the first to apply Lotka–Volterra model combined with genetic algorithm (GA) to predict the production relationships of high-tech industry among different areas. Previous studies analysed the trade interdependency among various countries, but few studies have highlighted the quantitative evidence of production relationships. Thus, this study utilizes motherboard shipment volumes to predict the competitive relationships of industrial production on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Specifically, this work uses simultaneous non-linear least square regression in combination with GAs for numerical parameter optimization of the proposed Lotka–Volterra model. The results of parameter estimation reveal that shipment growth in China substantially promotes that in Taiwan, whereas the shipment growth in Taiwan curtails that in China. The standard deviation of the estimated parameters from the 3000 iterated simulations is small, confirming the reliability and stability of our parameter estimations. According to equilibrium analysis, the results of Lyapunov function prove that the shipments of China and Taiwan will reach a stable long-term equilibrium. The potential production from China will ultimately be nearly 16 times as large as that from Taiwan. Finally, the analytical results of forecast accuracy confirm that Lotka–Volterra model performs better than conventional S-curve diffusion model in predicting motherboard shipments.     

技术集成能力对复杂产品创新绩效的影响机制

基于模块化理论和资源基础理论，探究技术集成能力与复杂产品创新绩效之间的关系，通过构建多重中介模型进一步探究复杂产品创新情境下技术集成能力的内部结构。对收集的353份调研样本进行实证分析并对模型进行验证，结果发现：技术集成能力的3个维度对复杂产品创新绩效的作用存在先后顺序；产品建构能力与复杂产品创新绩效具有显著相关关系；资源识取能力、技术融合能力在产品建构能力与复杂产品创新绩效之间起链式中介作用。结论有助于明晰复杂产品创新情境下技术集成能力内部结构及其对创新绩效的影响机制，为复杂产品企业更好地通过提升技术集成能力促进复杂产品创新发展提供借鉴。     

易逝性高新科技产品更新速度研究

通过分析易逝性高科技产品在其生命周期内的特征,并运用存量控制的方法,对同一市场上相互竞争的两家企业的策略进行分析和比较,解释了易逝性高科技产品更新换代加速的原因。     

新产品开发视角的跨职能整合:案例研究

持续地开发新产品是企业不断获取竞争优势的重要手段,国外大量的实证研究揭示了跨职能整合对于新产品开发绩效具有正向影响。梳理了有关研究成果,明确了跨职能整合是一个多维度概念,进一步阐述了其构成维度,并通过对6家创新型企业的案例分析,初步归纳了跨职能整合的维度,为后续实证研究提供了借鉴。     

A grey decision and prediction model for investment in the core competitiveness of product development

Because enterprises do not disclose their internal specific cost information to the public and, moreover, every firm has its own product character and financial constitutions, it is difficult to offer fixed guidelines for investment decisions. Thus, an enterprise may be uncertain when required to choose the most promising set of possible investments.The goal of this research is to use a grey relation analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to probe the core product development and competitiveness of an enterprise from limited data and, furthermore, by constructing the grey model, GM(1,1), to validate the feasibility of this assessment of the core competitiveness and investment strategy. In this study, a precision mechanical manufacturer is taken as an example, and the forecast estimate from this method is compared to those of a linear regression and the actual values to demonstrate the feasibility of applying this methodology to investment decision making, hence, demonstrating the value of this research.     

产品相似是技术并购的“福音”吗——基于资源编排视角

技术并购是企业从外部获取技术、提升创新水平的重要手段。然而，如何有效推动中国企业开展技术并购，这是迫切需要学者探究与回答的问题。为此，基于资源编排理论，按照技术并购中资源结构化—资源重组—资源撬动的动态演进过程，探究产品相似对各个资源编排阶段的影响。使用文本分析法，利用Python软件对上市公司年度报告进行数据抓取，测算并购双方的产品相似性数值，并利用条件Logit模型、负二项回归法进行实证检验。结果发现，在资源结构化阶段，产品相似有利于推动技术并购交易的达成；在资源重组阶段，产品相似有助于促进知识吸收，并加强对目标方资源的整合力度；在资源撬动阶段，产品相似有助于企业撬动融资环境和竞争环境以获利，并最终提升企业创新水平。总体而言，主并方在开展技术并购时，可以把产品相似作为挑选目标方的依据，从而降低技术并购失败的可能性。从政策看，政府应该加强对上市公司产品信息披露质量的监管及审查，构建有利于企业创新的竞争环境，鼓励企业积极参与技术并购，真正发挥技术并购对于促进企业创新的资源配置作用。     

不对称R＆D活动下的市场绩效分析——基于有差异产品的寡头市场

为了研究在Stackelberg寡头竞争模型下企业在产品市场是否合作对市场绩效的影响,建立了寡头市场中面向R＆D工艺的两阶段博弈模型。采用逆向归纳法求出了产品市场合作与不合作两种情况下的古诺-均衡解。研究表明,从促进技术进步的角度来看,对于R＆D效率不太高的R＆D项目,产品市场合作策略优于产品市场竞争策略。从提高企业利润的角度来看,对于R＆D效率较高的R＆D项目,当产品差异不大时,产品市场合作策略优于产品市场竞争策略;当产品差异较大时,产品市场竞争策略优于产品市场合作策略。对于R＆D效率较低的R＆D项目,产品市场竞争策略优于产品市场合作策略。从提高消费者剩余以及改善社会福利的角度来看,对于R＆D效率较低的R＆D项目,产品市场竞争策略优于产品市场合作策略。     

Tracking technology trajectory through regression modelling: a retrospective techno-analysis

A significant number of studies have been conducted to forecast the expanding market and evaluate new generation smartphone technologies. However, no such study has been witnessed so far that could forecast the release time of these technologies. The purpose of the paper is to test the forecasting capabilities of stepwise regression in forecasting the smartphones commercialisation time. This technique predicts the release time of smartphones released in 2006 (belonging to the second generation of smartphones) and 2007 (belonging to the third generation of smartphones). The stepwise regression approach based on 12 year data set from 1994 to 2005 determines whether it provides a superior fitting and forecasting performance. The validation approach applied for the first- and second-generation smartphones will benefit future researchers and practitioners in understanding that a regression model developed on the basis of one generation may not give accurate results for the next generation, owing to the fact that technological developments are multi-folded.     

QUANTITY VERSUS PRICE IN A HOMOGENEOUS PRODUCT DUOPOLY*

In a simple homogeneous product setting, the paper looks at the debate on whether firms should choose quantity or price as their strategic variable. It examines a two-stage game between firms with symmetric costs in which the firms choose the strategic mode of operation in the first period and then, in the second period, price or output are chosen simultaneously according to the mode chosen in the first stage. In this game it is possible to have two Nash equilibria where either both play in quantities or both play in prices. One firm choosing price and the other quantity can never be a Nash equilibrium in the two-stage game. Both choosing quantity is always a Nash equilibrium. Both choosing prices may be a Nash equilibrium only in some situations: the structure of the cost functions decides this issue.     

Conditional density forecast of China’s energy demand via QRNN model

We propose a new method for conditional density forecast of China’s energy demand through quantile regression neural network (QRNN). This method has at least two advantages. First, it is flexible to explore the true nonlinearity in the energy demand system via neural network structure. Second, it is able to describe the whole conditional distribution of energy demand via quantile regression. In the empirical study on China’s energy demand, QRNN outperforms several classical methods in terms of forecast accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample. Considering China’s economic and social environment, we set a scenario for predictors and forecast the conditional density of China’s energy demand from 2015 to 2020. The empirical results show that the conditional density curve moves to right and its dispersion increases over time, which indicates that the energy demand in China will keep growing with an average annual rate of 9.672% and its uncertainty is enlarged with 42.210%.     

Sources of strategic fit in high-tech firms

This study analyses the concept of strategic fit as a factor explaining organisational performance. We propose that strategic fit should include aspects of environment perception as well as the gap between planning processes and strategic implementation. Studying the firm's capacity to reduce this gap, we identify various organisational capabilities and analyse their relationships. Through managers’ responses from a sample of firms in European high-technology sectors, we find sufficient empirical evidence to affirm that strategic fit facilitates improvement in organisational performance. We also observe that strategic flexibility, real options and organisational learning are sources of strategic fit. So-called learning organisations facilitate generation of options that give the organisation the strategic flexibility needed to achieve fit with the environment. Strategic flexibility is defined in both the adaptive and anticipative sense. Our article thus offers a new perspective to contribute to better understanding of strategic fit and its antecedents.     

中美产品特征对产业升级作用机制的比较研究

基于产品空间理论视角，选取1962-2013年中美出口贸易数据，从微观产品特征视角对比分析了中美两国产品特征对产业升级的作用机制。研究表明：产品特征在产业升级与发展过程中发挥双重作用机制，即产业升级与发展不仅取决于现有产品积累的要素禀赋，还受到产品本身技术复杂性的影响。在产业升级与发展过程中，中国主要依赖产品密度（DEN），即依赖于既有产品积累的要素禀赋实现渐进式发展，很难实现跨越式发展，而美国在产业升级与发展过程中，产品密度（DEN）与产品技术复杂性（PCI）同时发挥了积极的双重作用并促进新竞争优势形成。进一步研究表明，密度（DEN）和产品复杂度指数（PCI）在不同产业升级过程中的作用机制存在差异。通过对比研究中国改革开放前后两个阶段发现，随着生产要素禀赋积累以及产品技术复杂性提高，产业升级的支撑作用增强，抑制作用减弱，但是引领作用不足。     

关系嵌入、知识获取与BOP市场导向的产品创新：内外部不确定性的调节作用

在主流市场日趋饱和的背景下，更多企业将目光聚焦于金字塔底层市场。基于权变视角，探索企业在BOP跨部门合作网络中，双边关系耦合与网络嵌入交互构建的双环协同机制如何影响企业外部知识攫取，进而作用于BOP市场导向的产品创新。采用大样本问卷调查，收集396家电动自行车企业数据，利用多元回归分析对研究假设进行实证检验。研究表明，跨层级嵌入双环协同机制与知识获取呈倒U型关系，高外部不确定性会增强该倒U型关系，但高内部不确定性对该倒U型关系无显著影响；通过知识获取的部分中介传导效应，最终跨层级嵌入双环协同与BOP产品创新呈倒U型关系。结论对企业把控BOP网络嵌入程度、优化网络配置及网络治理具有一定指导意义。     

Spurious principal components

The principal component regression (PCR) is often used to forecast macroeconomic variables when there are many predictors. In this letter, we argue that it makes sense to pre-whiten the predictors before including these in a PCR. With simulation experiments, we show that without such pre-whitening, spurious principal components can appear and that these can become spuriously significant in a PCR. With an illustration to annual inflation rates for five African countries, we show that non-spurious principal components can be genuinely relevant in empirical forecasting models.     

新宏观环境下的“产品创新管理”研究

在产品创新面临的宏观环境下,阐述了"产品创新管理"的新研究背景,通过分析现阶段我国产品创新主要问题和原因,提出了"产品创新管理"研究的必要性,最后指出"产品创新管理"研究的重要意义和主要研究框架。