中国低消费率问题探究——1992-2005年中国资金流量表的分析

国民消费率的波动来自居民部门和政府部门。从1992-2005年的数据看,中国国民消费率的下降主要是由居民消费率尤其是农村消费率下降引起的,城乡收入差距的扩大,居民消费倾向和收入占比的下降是居民消费率下降的主要原因;国民收入初次分配和再分配结构的变化,一方面引起居民收入占比的下降,另一方面又使居民内部收入差距扩大,这两个因素都推动了居民消费率的下降;政府消费率虽然总体上保持稳定,但政府消费倾向的下降阻碍了政府消费率的提高,也导致居民预防性储蓄的上升和消费倾向的下降。为实现以提高国内消费率为核心的经济发展战略,必须从国民收入初次分配和再分配机制两方面来改善国民收入分配结构,从建立公共财政体系角度来提高政府消费倾向,加快城市化进程和促进居民尤其是城市居民的消费水平。     

中国高储蓄率部门特征、成因及对策

对中国总储蓄结构特征进行分析就会发现,目前我国居民储蓄率逐年降低,中国高储蓄率的主要推动力来自于政府部门和企业部门储蓄的不断上升。基于1992-2005年中国资金流量表的统计数据,本文从部门可支配收入和边际储蓄倾向角度,对我国居民、企业及政府三部门的储蓄率变化进行剖析,同时,建立计量模型对问题的变化原因做了实证检验。在此基础上,本文建议全面提高居民收入比例,实施减税降负、促进消费的税收体制改革,以及在提高劳动生产率的基础上增加企业对劳动者支付水平等。     

我国国民收入分配格局变迁研究

以国家统计局发布的资金流量表数据为基础,对政府、企业、居民三大部门在我国初次分配和再分配过程中的收入比例变动进行全面分析研究。发现在初次分配环节：居民部门的劳动报酬、财产性收入、经营性留存占GDP的比重均有所下降,其中劳动报酬占比下降6.66个百分点。而企业部门的经营性留存占比有显著上升,政府部门的收入增加主要体现在生产税净额和社会保险收入方面。在再分配过程中,由于缴纳收入税,企业部门的可支配收入份额有所降低,政府部门的收入比重则继续上升。居民部门的收入占比与初次分配相比有所提高,但随着时间推移,提高的幅度趋小,也就是说,再分配环节对于改善居民部门在国民收入格局中相对地位的作用越来越弱。     

我国国民收入分配格局研究

20世纪90年代以来,我国国民收入分配格局发生了巨大变化。测算结果显示:国民收入初次分配格局中,企业所得增长较快,政府所得次之,居民所得增长较慢;再分配格局中,由于各种制度外收入和土地出让收入的快速增加使政府所得份额上升明显,企业在再分配格局中居于弱势地位,居民所得继续呈下降趋势。各主体内部分配结构的变化特点是:政府部门内中央政府和地方政府的收支结构不平衡,地方政府的非预算收入激增;企业部门内部垄断行业利润增加大于竞争性行业,利润向少数行业集中;居民劳动报酬份额不断下降且会在较长时间内延续,居民部门内收入差距持续扩大。针对当前国民收入分配中存在的问题,应适当调整我国国民收入主体分配格局,强化再分配机制,平衡政府、企业和居民主体间分配关系,并将国民收入分配格局的调整与各经济主体内部收入分配结构的调节有机结合起来。     

经济增长、储蓄结构与收入分配——我国国民收入分配格局问题研究

笔者根据国家统计局发布的城乡居民可支配收入数据,测算了我国1978年～2009年间居民部门收入占GDP比重的变化趋势.应用卡尔多"经济增长与收入分配模型"的研究表明,储蓄结构变迁是影响我国国民收入分配格局的主要因素,其中企业储蓄的快速增长是导致居民收入份额下降的主要原因,而近年来企业储蓄的高增长是我国步入"重化工业化"阶段后财税体制、金融体制等一系列制度性因素共同作用的结果.因此,调节国民经济收入分配格局的根本措施在于改革当前导致企业储蓄率过快增长的财税与金融等制度性因素.     

我国国民收入分配格局的测算结果与调整对策

20世纪90年代以来,我国国民收入分配格局发生了巨大变化。测算结果显示:国民收入初次分配格局中,企业所得增长较快,政府所得次之,居民所得增长较慢;再分配格局中,由于各种制度外收入和土地出让收入的快速增加使政府所得份额上升明显,企业在再分配格局中居于弱势地位,居民所得继续呈下降趋势。各主体内部分配结构的变化特点是:政府部门内中央政府和地方政府的收支结构不平衡,地方政府的非预算收入激增;企业部门内部垄断行业利润增加大于竞争性行业,利润向少数行业集中;居民劳动报酬份额不断下降且会在较长时间内延续,居民部门内收入差距持续扩大。针对当前国民收入分配中存在的问题,应适当调整我国国民收入主体分配格局,平衡政府、企业和居民主体间分配关系,并将国民收入分配格局的调整与各经济主体内部收入分配结构的调节有机结合。     

谁在抑制居民的消费需求?——基于国民收入分配格局的分析

经济转型以来中国国民收入分配格局发生了巨大变化,国民收入分配从向居民倾斜逐步演变成向政府倾斜.分析1992-2007年16年间我国国民收入在企业、政府和居民三部门之间分配格局的变化,可以发现:居民部门在全国可支配收入中的占比1996年达到最高,此后逐年降低,截至2007年,总共下降了8.6个百分点.在初次分配阶段,居民部门下降了5.41个百分点,而企业和政府部门则分别上升了3.89个和1.52个百分点;在再分配阶段,居民部门下降了8.60个百分点,而政府和企业部门则分别上升了3.03和5.57个百分点.在初次分配中,居民部门劳动者报酬和财产收入占比的下降,分别使其在国民收入中的占比下降了5.99个和3.21个百分点.因此,应该适当调整中国国民收入分配格局,提高居民收入比重,并将国民收入分配格局的调整与各经济主体内部收入分配结构的调节有机结合.     

中国国民储蓄实证研究——基于结构视角

从结构上看,国民储蓄包括居民储蓄、企业储蓄、政府储蓄,通常按照资金流量表对三者进行测算是不科学的,应直接用支出法对国民经济核算数据来进行测算改革开放以来居民储蓄、企业储蓄、政府储蓄的数量。中国储蓄率的变化趋势主要应该由企业储蓄、政府储蓄来解释,居民储蓄改革开放以来总体上保持了稳定。     

基于主体视角的国民收入分配格局研究——对中、日两国的实证比较

国民收入在居民、企业和政府之间的分配格局合理与否决定着居民福利水平的提高、企业的持续发展和公共服务的持续发展能否协调共进。中国与日本的国民收入分配格局存在着明显的差异。与日本相比,在国民收入初次分配和再分配中,中国住户部门的所得份额明显偏低,而企业部门和政府部门所得份额明显偏高,中国的国民收入分配格局存在着明显的向企业和政府倾斜的倾向。这对国内消费需求的增长、居民生活水平的提高和产业结构的升级都产生了不利的影响,应该采取提高劳动者报酬收入在国民收入初次分配中的比重、减轻居民税收负担、增加政府对居民的转移支出、放松对企业向职工提供补助和福利的管制等措施,提高居民在国民收入分配中的比重。     

农业劳动力转移与家户储蓄率上升

本文在二元经济框架下,从农业劳动力转移的角度探讨中国家户储蓄率和国民储蓄率上升的原因。为此本文建立了一般均衡模型分析家户的消费储蓄决策,将总储蓄率分解为城市居民、农民工和农民三类群体的储蓄率。由于社会保障水平和收入水平的差异,农民工的边际储蓄倾向比农民和城镇居民高。在农业劳动力向非农部门持续转移的进程中,农民工群体随着非农部门的资本积累而不断扩大,其高储蓄行为也推动了家户储蓄率和国民储蓄率的上升。     

中国消费不足的原因:一个综述

近年来,学术界围绕扩大消费问题进行了三方面的研究:我国的消费率是否正常、消费不足的原因以及扩大消费的对策.本文对近年来上述问题相关的研究成果进行了梳理,并结合中国改革开放三十年的经济数据,对导致我国消费不足的一些观点进行辨析.分析结果表明:高投资、高储蓄、收入分配不合理是制约我国消费需求扩大的重要原因;政府消费的不断扩大排挤了居民消费.尽管有学者认为流动性约束也是制约消费需求扩大的原因,但分析结果并不支持此种观点.     

人口结构变化对消费结构及储蓄率的影响分析

利用1995年、2002年和2007年的CHIPS(China Household Income Projects)数据实证分析了家庭人口结构变化对城乡居民家庭消费结构和储蓄率的影响。家庭收入、规模大小、户主年龄和家庭不同年龄人口占比等家庭人口结构变量对消费结构和储蓄率都有一定的影响。就消费结构来说,如教育支出方面,老年家庭明显低于年轻家庭;医疗保障支出方面,老年家庭明显高于年轻家庭。同时,研究表明我国城镇和农村家庭的户主年龄与储蓄率略呈U型结构,也就是说我国家庭微观储蓄率与经典的生命周期假设不一致。进一步探讨了未来家庭人口结构变化对中国家庭储蓄率和经济结构的影响以及相关政策涵义。     

Uncertain Pension Income and Household Saving

This paper investigates the relationship between household saving and pensions, and estimates both the displacement effect of pensions on private saving and the precautionary saving effect due to uncertainty in pension income. I estimate the savings equation implied by a simple life‐cycle model featuring income uncertainty using survey data for Dutch households, with subjective expectations on pension benefits and uncertainty. Exploiting exogenous variation due to pension fund performance, I find that households save significantly more due to uncertainty in pension income. Not controlling for uncertainty biases the estimated displacement effect of pensions on private savings towards zero.     

Who is saving privately for retirement and how much? New evidence for Germany

Due to demographic change, the replacement rates of the German statutory pension scheme will decrease over the next decades. Voluntary savings for retirement will therefore increase in relevance as a method of maintaining one’s standard of living during retirement. This article examines the savings behavior for retirement on an individual level in Germany at the extensive as well as the intensive margin. First, the decision to save in general is analyzed, showing that the main determinants for saving are personal income and disposable household income. Furthermore, it is shown that migrants and individuals living in the Eastern part of Germany turn out to be less likely to have additional private savings. Second, the chosen gross saving rates are analyzed using a Tobit model, a log-normal hurdle model and a Type II Tobit model. The results suggest that the decision to save in general, as well as the saving rate, are independent of each other, leading to a loss of information if only a standard Tobit model is used. For example, higher personal income increases the probability to save for retirement, but decreases the resulting saving rate. Modeling both decisions separately thus, leads to a better understanding of the determinants of saving for old-age.     

The surprisingly low importance of income uncertainty for precaution

While it is common to use income uncertainty to explain household saving decisions, there is much disagreement about the importance of precautionary saving. This paper suggests that income uncertainty is not an important motive for saving, although households do have other precautionary reasons to save. Using a question from the Survey of Consumer Finances that asks how much households want for precautionary purposes, this paper shows that expressed household preferences, and liquid savings, are much lower than predicted by standard modeling assumptions. Households rarely list unemployment as a reason to save. Perceived income uncertainty does not affect liquid savings or precautionary preferences. Neither does being in an occupation with higher income volatility. Instead, households seem very concerned with expenditure shocks.     

Does the quality of institutions enhance savings? The case of Sub-Saharan Africa

Over the last three decades, there has been increasing disparity in savings across regions and income groupings globally. In this paper, we investigate whether the quality of institutions explains the saving disparities in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Utilizing comprehensive panel data and spanning the period 1980–2015, we estimate a savings model using the two-step instrumental variable generalized method of moment (2SIV-GMM) estimator. Our results show that the impact of institutions on savings behaviour differs across regions and income groupings, and in SSA, in aggregate. We find that the level and growth of per capita income and terms of trade enhance savings whereas government consumption expenditure, financial sector development and the elderly dependency rate are savings impeding. The findings are robust to alternative model specification and highlight the importance of institutions in influencing savings behaviour in SSA.     

Accounting for China's Saving‐Investment Imbalance from 2002–2008

This paper decomposes and analyzes China's saving‐investment imbalance (equivalent to current account imbalance) from 2002–2008. We first use the Flow of Funds Accounts to calculate the saving and investment rates (propensity) of the household, corporate and government sectors and to evaluate their relative contribution to the aggregate saving‐investment surplus. The results indicate that the increase of saving‐investment surplus can be attributed to the steady increase of saving by the household and government sectors and the short‐term downsizing of investment by the corporate and government sectors. We then use more disaggregate supplementary datasets to explore the factors behind the evolution of the saving and investment rates for the three sectors. The rise of the household saving rate mainly sources from the urban sector. The corporate saving rate experienced a steady increase because of the rise of profitability. Government macroeconomic policies have had a strong influence on the saving and investment patterns of the corporate and government sectors.     

居民储蓄-准货币之主源

该文的主旨是探求广义货币中之准货币部分与居民储蓄行为间的关系.该文利用分析时序数据的经济计量模型,建立和估计出城乡居民的人均消费行为关系,用以推算居民的储蓄潜力.再用居民储蓄潜力来解释银行城乡储蓄总额,最后用银行城乡储蓄总额来解释广义货币中的准货币部分.建模试验结果表明,居民人均储蓄行为具有相当的规律性,而且储蓄与准货币供给之间也存在着相当稳定的关系.该文还就利率、利率差、收入及收入不确定性等因素对居民储蓄的影响,做了各种模拟试验.     

A nonbehavioral theory of saving

The article presents a demand-driven model, where the saving rate of households at the bottom of the income distribution becomes the endogenous variable that adjusts for full employment to be maintained over time. An increase in income inequality and the current account deficit and a consolidation of the government budget lead to a decrease in the saving rate of the household sector. Such a process is unsustainable because it leads to an increase in the debt-to-income ratio of the households and its maintenance depends on some kind of asset bubble. This framework allows us to better understand the factors that led to the Great Recession in the United States and the dilemma of the present and the future regarding a repeat of this unsustainable process or secular stagnation.     

A Theoretical Model of the Effects of Public Funding on Saving Decisions by Charitable Nonprofit Service Providers

Why do charitable nonprofit, service‐providing organizations save? What are the tradeoffs between using income to build up cash reserves and serving more clients? Saving may generate income, protect the organization against a drop in donations, and increase the organization's chances of survival. Saving, though, may affect the likelihood that nonprofits receive private and public funding. We model the relationship among private and public income, economic conditions, and nonprofit savings. We find that anticipation of government help during difficult times tends to reduce the amount of saving done by the nonprofit. This effect is strengthened if government officials view unspent donations as indicative of a lack of need. Both these effects provide a strong incentive for nonprofits to spend on current consumption rather than to save for the future, and thus to increase the burden on the public purse.