Indeterminacy with almost constant returns to scale: capital-labor substitution matters

Summary. This paper shows, in the benchmark one-sector Ramsey model, that indeterminacy and sunspots may occur when externalities are small, provided that capital and labor are more substitutable than in the usual Cobb-Douglas specification. Key to the results are the general formulations of both preferences and technology that we consider. In particular, indeterminacy is shown to occur under almost constant returns to scale provided that both concavity of utility for consumption is small enough and labor supply is close to indivisible. An important implication of the results is that, when labor supply is positively sloped, indeterminacy does not necessarily require the equilibrium wage-hours locus to be upward sloping.Received: 16 June 2004, Revised: 8 March 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C62, D58, D91, E32.This is a companion paper of “Sunspots in real business-cycle models: completing calibration”, with new results that have emerged from extending the analysis contained in the latter article. The author would like to thank, without implicating, Bruno Decreuse, Andrew Postlewaite, Alain Venditti, Yi Wen, participants at the 2003 Society for Economic Dynamics Meeting, as well as C.D. Aliprantis, the Editor, and an anonymous referee for useful comments and suggestions.     

On smoothing macroeconomic time series using the modified HP filter

In business-cycle research, smoothing data is an essential first step to evaluate the extent to which model-generated moments stand up to their empirical counterparts. We put to test McDermott’s (1997) modified version of Hodrick and Prescott’s (1997) smoothing filter. On the one hand, our simulations suggest that relative to other filters, the modified HP-filter replicates better artificially generated series with known properties. On the other hand, using true data we find that autoregressive properties of smoothed series are not affected by the choice of smoothing HP filters, but the same does not hold when it comes to multivariate analysis. The later result is especially strong for annual data. We report results for a large set of countries.     

The Relationship between Waste Paper and Other Inputs in the Swedish Paper Industry

A number of life-cycle assessment studies havecompared the environmental impacts of materialrecycling and incineration of waste paper. Theyhave shown that, in most cases, a recyclingscenario results in lower total energy use, butgreater use of fossil fuels. If waste paper andfossil fuels are complements, parts of theenvironmental argument for recycling isabolished. This paper estimates a cost functionfor the Swedish paper industry. If the costshares are co-integrated, an error correctionmodel will be used to model the dynamics.Short- and long-run elasticities are thencalculated to address the relationship betweenwaste paper and the other inputs: capital,labor, purchased pulp, fiber, fossil fuels andelectricity. Contrary to the life-cycleassessment studies, the results show that wastepaper and fossil fuels are substitutes, andthat waste paper and electricity arecomplements.     

On Money and Output in the Euro Area: Is Money Redundant?

This paper examines the relationship between money and future movements in output at business-cycle frequencies in the euro area. Importantly, the evidence suggests that the money stock is found to significantly affect output independent of the real interest rate. This finding supports the argument made by Meltzer (2001) Meltzer, A. H. 2001. “The transmission process”. In The Monetary Transmission Process: Recent Developments and Lessons for Europe, Edited by: Deutsche, Bundesbank. 112–130. London: Palgrave.  [Google Scholar] that the effects of monetary policy actions on the real economy are not fully captured by the short-term real rate.     

Monetary policy and real wage cyclicality

This article points to the potential role of monetary policy in affecting the degree of real wage cyclicality. We show that the degree and direction of real wage cyclicality is determined by the interaction of (i) the returns to scale in production, (ii) the nature of aggregate shocks and (iii) monetary policy. Given that production technology is fairly constant in the short run, we suggest that variations in the real wage – output covariance depend largely on the combination of the latter two. Identifying well-documented monetary policy phases in six major Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and accounting for both aggregate demand and supply shocks, we provide empirical evidence to support our main theoretical claim.     

Detrending methods and stylized facts of business cycles in Norway – an international comparison

This paper analyses the stylized facts of business cycles in Norway, by comparing different detrending methods. As the choice of the appropriate data transformation depends on the nature of the underlying dynamic properties of the time series, a set of unit root tests are first applied to the data. The detrended data are analysed, both in the time domain and the frequency domain. The evidence suggests that whereas some variables (e.g. consumption and investment) behave consistently procyclically with GDP, for other variables (e.g. real wage and prices), the business cycle properties vary considerably with the detrending methods used. The results are evaluated from a real business cycle perspective, but overall, there is little evidence to support a (supply driven) real business cycle. Symmetries in business cycles are finally analysed by comparing the business cycles in Norway and selected countries. First version received: April 1997 / Final version received: November 1999     

Monetary policy shocks and productivity measures in the G-7 countries

An implication of two-country international real business cycle models is that total factor productivity should be an exogenous stochastic process. Economic theories which feature labor hoarding, variable capacity utilization, and increasing returns predict that measured productivity shifts are not exogenous; instead, expansionary aggregate demand shocks should lead to an increase in measured productivity. For each of the G-7 countries, this paper measures quarterly aggregate total factor productivity for the domestic country and its rest-of-world (G-6) counterpart. In each case the domestic productivity measures are not strictly exogenous: expansionary U.S. monetary policy shocks, as well as other G-6 monetary policy shocks, lead to productivity expansions. The evidence indicates that international business cycle models are misspecified unless they feature endogenous productivity mechanisms.Received: June 2001, Accepted: December 2001, JEL Classification: E5, F4Correspondence to: Charles L. EvansFor their helpful comments, we thank Mario Crucini, Patricia Reynolds, and Steve Strongin. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.     

智能制造的生产成本属性异变及边际成本递减律

智能科技革命驱动的智能制造,是新时期推进制造强国建设的不二选项.智能制造以工业智能体取代人力作业,采用\"车间智能体+镜像网络\"的单要素虚实融合生产模式,这将带来迥异于传统制造业的生产特征和成本属性,进而改变成本函数形态.比较研究发现,智能制造具有\"高固定成本、弱可变成本\"属性,并据此推导出随产量弱增长的弱成本函数,以及相应产生的边际成本递减规律.智能制造边际成本递减律,主要源于智能制造的单要素虚实融合生产模式对可变成本的冲淡与弱化效应.从政策层面,建议有序开展智能制造系统的众筹建造模式,积极推行智能制造系统的产能共享模式,尽早谋划智能时代产业工人的全新就业模式,大力引导消费者不断介入生产活动,实现消费者向\"消产者\"的身份转变.     

Comment on “Unwrapping some euro area growth puzzles: Factor substitution, productivity and unemployment”

This paper estimates the factor elasticity of substitution of the aggregate production function and then uses these estimates to resolve two puzzles relating to the Euro Area. The paper is novel in three ways: First it uses the CES production technology in the empirical strategy to understand real world economic phenomena; second it uses a frontier empirical methodology; and third it uses a new dataset.     

General equilibrium effects of environmental policy: A CGE-modeling approach

Estimation of emission control cost functions is often carried out in a partial equilibrium framework, i.e., under the assumption that emission control measures have negligible effects on input and output prices. In this paper a computable general equilibrium model is used for simulation of the impact on factor prices and resource allocation of reductions of SO _infx ^sup- , NO _infx ^su- and CO₂-emissions. Thus the model includes markets for tradable emission permits, and the equilibrium prices of permits reflect the marginal costs of emission control. The results suggest that major emission reductions are likely to have general equilibrium effects, and thus that emission control cost functions that fail to take these effects into account may give a distorted picture of the economic impact of emission control.     

中国钢铁行业能源内部的替代弹性分析

本文运用中国钢铁行业滞后一期的产出代替劳动和资本变量,把钢铁行业能源投入要素分解为煤炭、石油、天然气和电力的投入,建立了一个超越对数生产函数模型,用岭回归估算了中国钢铁行业各能源品种投入要素的产出弹性、替代弹性。结果表明:煤炭与石油、煤炭与天然气、煤炭与电力的替代弹性在1左右,中国钢铁行业可通过用石油、天然气、电力替代煤炭来实现其行业全要素能源效率的提高。     

The recent process of job polarization in Japan: evidence from 1980 to 2010

This study investigates the recent process of job polarization in Japan. We focus on three particular aspects: the relationship with business cycles, total hours rather than employment and age cohorts. We find that, regardless of whether the focus is employment or total hours, job polarization is concentrated in recessions and that job polarization has occurred mainly in younger-age cohorts.     

Capital–energy substitution in China: regional differences and dynamic evolution

This article estimates the capital–energy Allen elasticities of substitution in China’s 28 provinces over the period 1995–2011. The central finding is that the capital–energy substitution elasticity in each province exhibits significant heterogeneity. The article empirically analyses the sources of the differences in the capital–energy substitution elasticity. The embodied technical change and market distortions are found to have significant effects on the degree of substitution elasticity. Further factor market reforms, liberalisation and cooperation would improve the elasticity of capital–energy substitution.     

Elasticity of substitution and the stagnation of Italian productivity

The aim of this paper is to investigate the roots of the stagnation in the Italian total factor productivity (TFP). The analysis focuses on the specific pattern of technical progress in determining the dynamics of the TFP. This analysis cannot be done with Cobb-Douglas technology, but requires the employment of a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function that allows distinguishing between the direction and the bias of technical progress. We employ a CES specification embodying both labor- and capital-augmenting technical change, with a σ less than 1. We obtain three main results. (1) There seems to have been a structural break around the mid-1990s in the direction and bias of technological change; (2) The first half of the sample features a labor-augmenting technical change and a capital bias; and (3) In the second part of the sample, both these characteristics seem to disappear, and the evolution of factor endowments assumes a key role. This fact may be seen as one of the potential causes of the stagnation in Italian productivity.