Inflation,growth, and distribution: The Brazilian economy after the post war

Abstract

Following Marglin and Bhaduri (1990 Marglin, S.A., and Bhaduri, A. “Profit Squeeze and Keynesian Theory.” In S.A. Marglin and J. Schor (eds.), The Golden Age of Capitalism. Reinterpreting the Postwar Experience. Oxford: Clarendon, 1990. [Google Scholar]), the purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the interaction between income distribution and growth of aggregate demand during the 1951–89 period in Brazil. Applying Hein and Vogel’s (2008) methodology we conclude that the Brazilian economy showed a profit-led demand regime. In a context of high inflation, high concentration of markets, and wage control, retained profits were the main source to finance new capital. In this sense, we found a large sensitivity of investment relative to the wage share, a result that is compatible with a consumption pattern based on high income, which supported the growth trend with low wages observed during the period.     

Adolphe Quetelet,the average man and the development of economic methodology *

Abstract

Quetelet's contribution to statistics has received adequate attention in Stigler (1986 Stigler, S. M. 1986. The History of Statistics. The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900, Cambridge & London, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar], 1999 Stigler, S. M. 1999. Statistics on the Table. The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods, Cambridge & London, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]) and Porter's (1986) seminal works on the history of that scientific discipline. 24 24 See also Westergaard (1932 Westergaard, H. 1932. Contributions to the History of Statistics, London: King & Son.  [Google Scholar]: 167–70), Klein (1997 Klein, J. 1997. Statistical Visions in Time. A History of Time Series Analysis 1662–1938, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]: 122–31). Our contribution investigates Quetelet's influence on economic methodology. Other scholars have already investigated his influence on econometrics and empirical economics (Morgan 1990 Morgan, M. S. 1995. The History of Econometric Ideas, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [1990] [Google Scholar], Stigler 1999 Stigler, S. M. 1999. Statistics on the Table. The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods, Cambridge & London, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), but we argue that his influence on theoretical economics should be considered significant as well. We devote attention to Quetelet's concept of the ‘average man’. For this purpose we briefly summarize Quetelet's methodology and examine the evolution of his ideas as expressed in his published works. We then investigate his influence on Jevons's ‘calculus of pleasures and pains’ and on the statistical investigations of the German historical school. We argue that the history of statistics, and especially Quetelet's contribution, should not be neglected by historians of economic thought as it provides important insights into the development of economic methodology.     

Classical biased technical change approach and its relevance to reality

The purpose of this article is to evaluate empirically the classical viability condition for East Asia, Latin America, Sub‐Saharan Africa 1980–1995, and advanced countries 1950–1992. The viability condition is proposed by Foley and Michl (1999 Foley, D.K. and Michl, T.R. 1999. Growth and Distribution, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), and is used for judging empirically which approach is more valid, the classical biased technical change approach or neoclassical production function approach. Our results acknowledge the predominance of the former, which is Foley‐Michl’s contention. However, there remains a disputable interpretation as to the case of a declining labour productivity, which is broadly seen in Latin America and Sub‐Saharan Africa during the period considered.     

Structural changes and regional disparity in China's inflation: a revisit

The study re-examined the time series properties and regional disparities in Chinese inflation by extending the work of Chong, Zhang, and Feng (2011 Chong, Tai-Leeung, Terence, Ning Zhang and Feng, Qu. 2011. Structural Changes and Regional Disparity in China's Inflation. Economics Bulletien, 31(1): 572–583.  [Google Scholar]). For this purpose we employed the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root test with one structural break and two structural breaks suggested by Lee and Strazicich (2003 Lee, Junsoo, Mark, C. and Strazicich. 2003. Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4): 1082–1089. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2004 Lee, J. and Strazicich, M. 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Working Paper 04–17, Boone, North Carolina: Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.  [Google Scholar]) and a recently developed ADF type unit root test with two structural breaks of Narayan and Popp (2010 Narayan, Paresh Kumar and Stephan Popp. 2010. A New Unit root test with Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9): 1425–1438. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We found that national, urban and rural series of the overall inflation series, clothing, and food, national series of education and residence and the rural series of residence and education are stationary. We also found regional disparity in Chinese inflation, but the disparities existed only in education inflation series.     

An analysis of quasi-qualification,modified auditor opinions and special treatment status on China's Shenzhen market

The development of accounting, auditing and capital markets in China were an integral component of China's economic reforms; auditing was regarded as being critically important to achieving the desired policy objective of delivering a market economy (Yang and Yang, 1998 Yang, J. W. and Yang, J. 1998. The Handbook of Chinese Accounting (in Chinese), Hong Kong: Oxford University Press.  [Google Scholar]). This article examines the quasi-qualification hypothesis and tests whether investors valued the introduction of Special Treatment (ST) status for firms in 1998. Our empirical analysis fails to find significant support for the quasi-qualification hypothesis. In contrast, it appears that the issuance of ST status was valued by investors; the issuance of ST status led investors to discriminate between firms.     

Hayek and the General Theory ∗

Abstract

Hayek did not review the General Theory, but he criticized it in Profits, Interest and Investment (1939 Hayek, F. A. 1939. “Profits, interest and investment”. In Profits, Interest and Investment, London: Routledge & Sons.  [Google Scholar]) and in part IV of The Pure Theory of Capital (1941 Hayek, F. A. 1941. The Pure Theory of Capital, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.  [Google Scholar]). First, he showed that only exceptionally does greater consumption favour investment and employment. Second, he rejected Keynes's liquidity preference and maintained that only in an ‘extreme case’ might it be said that Keynes's theory of the rate of interest is valid. Although he correctly identified the gist of Keynes's theoretical innovation, his criticisms were already implicitly answered in the General Theory.     

A Simple Model to Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies

The canonical neoclassical model is insufficient to understand business cycle fluctuations in emerging market and developing economies. The author reformulates the model proposed by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007 Ahumada, I., and F. Butler. 2009. La enseñanza de la economía en México. Working Paper 672. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Google Scholar]) in a simple setting that can be used to teach business cycle macroeconomics for emerging market and developing economies at the undergraduate level. The simplified model is employed for qualitatively explaining facts such as the highly countercyclicality of the trade balance and the higher volatility of output and consumption compared with those observed in advanced countries.     

Nonlinearity in real exchange rates: an approach with disaggregated data and a new linearity test

Employing disaggregated real exchange rates from nine European counties in 16 goods categories, we assess in this study the nonlinearity in the real exchange rates. Surprisingly, we find evidence for nonlinearity in only four (10) out of 143 series with the linearity test proposed by Harvey et al. (2008 Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J. and Xiao, B. 2008. A powerful test for linearity when the order of integration is unknown. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 12 Art 8[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) at the 5% (10%) significance level. This result differs greatly from those of Juvenal and Taylor (2008 Juvenal, L. and Taylor, M. P. 2008. Threshold adjustment of deviations from the law of one price. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 12 Art 8[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Imbs et al. (2003 Imbs, J., Mumtaz, H., Raven, M. O. and Rey, H. 2003. Nonlinearities and real exchange rate dynamics. Journal of the European Economic Association, 1: 639–49. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), Sarno et al. (2004 Sarno, L., Taylor, M. P. and Chowdhury, I. 2004. Nonlinear dynamics in deviations from the law of one price: a broad-based empirical study. Journal of International Money and Finance, 23: 1–25. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Berka (2009 Berka, M. 2009. “Non-linear adjustment in law of one price deviations and physical characteristic of good”. In Review of International Economics Vol. 17, 51–73.  [Google Scholar]), who report ample evidence for nonlinearity for the same or similarly disaggregated real exchange rate datasets.     

The Political Power of Big Business: A Response to Bell and Hindmoor

There has been a recent resurgence of interest in debates about the power of business (Culpepper 2011 Culpepper, P. (2011). Quiet Politics and Business Power: Corporate Control in Europe and Japan, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [Google Scholar]; Bell 2012 Bell, S. (2012). The Power of Ideas: The Ideational Mediation of the Structural Power of Business. International Studies Quarterly, 56(4), 661–73. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2012.00743.x[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Bell and Hindmoor (2013 Bell, S., Hindmoor, A. (2013). The Structural Power of Business and the Power of Ideas: The Strange Case of the Australian Mining Tax. New Political Economy, ,forthcoming. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2013.796452 [19 (3), pp. 470–486, cross-references updated] [Google Scholar]) make an important, theoretically informed, but empirically rooted, contribution to that debate. In this response, we address both aspects of their contribution, arguing that their treatment of Lindblom is partial and, consequently, so is their explanation of the case. As such, we largely rely on their narrative of the evolution of the Australian mining tax, focusing first on critically examining Bell and Hindmoor's theoretical position, before turning to their analysis of the case.     

A Simple Model of Entrepreneurship for Principles of Economics Courses

The critical roles of entrepreneurs in creating, operating, and destroying markets, as well as their importance in driving long-term economic growth are still generally either absent from principles of economics texts or relegated to later chapters. The primary difficulties in explaining entrepreneurship at the principles level are the lack of a universally accepted definition, a plausible explanation of the demand for entrepreneurship, and a diagram that summarizes the impact of entrepreneurship on market equilibrium and growth—a definition, a story, and a picture. This article discusses how the notion of the stationary state associated with Schumpeter (1911 Schumpeter, J. A. 1911/1983. Theory of economic development., Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]/1983), Knight (1921 Knight, F. H. 1921/1971. Risk, uncertainty and profit, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]/1971), and Weber (1930 Weber, M. 1930/2002. The Protestant ethic and the spirit of capitalism, New York: Scribner's.  [Google Scholar]/2002) can provide a framework for integrating the entrepreneur into the early part of principles of economics courses.     

Beveridge's analysis of unemployment in 1909: the reserve of labour

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to provide a rational reconstruction of Beveridge's theory of unemployment published in 1909. First and foremost, it shows that his theory of unemployment is coherent – what Beveridge refers to as ‘the reserve of labour’ represents ‘unemployment’ as a whole; unemployment is due to the imperfection of the labour market and associated friction and the organisation of the labour market is necessary. Second, it suggests that as early as 1909, a negative relationship already existed between unemployment and job vacancies and that the segmentation of the labour market and imperfect information are key factors of friction. The first part of the paper provides a reconstruction of Beveridge's theory of the reserve of labour (1909) including causes and factors of unemployment and unemployment policies. The second part shows that certain founding principles of the ‘Beveridge curve’ (Beveridge 1944 Beveridge, W. H. 1944 [1953]. Full Employment in a Free Society, London: George Allen and Unwin.  [Google Scholar] [1953]) were already to be found in his 1909 book and that links can be established between Beveridge (1909 Beveridge, W. H. 1909. Unemployment: A Problem of Industry, London: Longmans, Green and Co.  [Google Scholar]), Phelps (1970 Phelps, E. S. 1970. The new microeconomic in inflation and employment theory. The American Economic Review, 59(2): 147–60. [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Pissarides (2000 Pissarides, C. A. 2000. Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.  [Google Scholar]).     

On Money and Output in the Euro Area: Is Money Redundant?

This paper examines the relationship between money and future movements in output at business-cycle frequencies in the euro area. Importantly, the evidence suggests that the money stock is found to significantly affect output independent of the real interest rate. This finding supports the argument made by Meltzer (2001) Meltzer, A. H. 2001. “The transmission process”. In The Monetary Transmission Process: Recent Developments and Lessons for Europe, Edited by: Deutsche, Bundesbank. 112–130. London: Palgrave.  [Google Scholar] that the effects of monetary policy actions on the real economy are not fully captured by the short-term real rate.     

Purchasing power parity for G-7 countries: panel SURADF tests

In this study, the panel Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Augmented Dickey–Fuller (SURADF) tests advanced by Breuer et al. (2001 Breuer, J. B., McNown, R. and Wallace, M. S. 2001. Misleading inferences from panel unit-root tests with an illustration from purchasing power parity. Review of International Economics, 9: 482–93. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) are used to test the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for G-7 countries over the period 1980M1 to 2008M5. The empirical results from several panel-based unit root tests indicate that PPP does not hold for G-7 countries under study; however, Breuer et al.'s (2001 Breuer, J. B., McNown, R. and Wallace, M. S. 2001. Misleading inferences from panel unit-root tests with an illustration from purchasing power parity. Review of International Economics, 9: 482–93. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) panel SURADF tests unequivocally indicate that PPP is valid for half of the G-7 countries.     

Ownership herding and informational herding

This article takes as its point of departure the herding model of Bikhchandani et al. (1992 Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D. and Welch, I. 1992. A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades. Journal of Political Economy, 100: 992–1026. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We extend earlier experimental evidence to distinguish between informational herding, as in the model, and ownership herding, an alternative explanation for observed behaviour.     

Nonlinear Mean Reversion across National Stock Markets: Evidence from Emerging Asian Markets

This paper seeks empirical evidence of nonlinear mean-reversion in relative national stock price indices for Emerging Asian countries. It is well known that conventional linear unit root tests suffer from low power against the stationary nonlinear alternative. Implementing the nonlinear unit root tests proposed by Kapetanios et al. (2003 Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y. and Snell, A. 2003. Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. Journal of Econometrics, 112: 359–379. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Cerrato et al. (2009 Cerrato, M., de Peretti, C., Larsson, R. and Sarantis, N. 2009. “A nonlinear panel unit root test under cross section dependence”. Working Papers 28, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow [Google Scholar]) for the relative stock prices of Emerging Asian markets, we find strong evidence of nonlinear mean reversion, whereas linear tests fail to reject the unit root null for most cases. We also report some evidence that stock markets in China and Taiwan are highly localized.     

The market for corporate control: do countries and technological regimes matter?

Using DATASTREAM and LexisNexis databases, we examine the experience from 1995 to 2005 for eight European countries and 21 sectors, and compute the frequency of merger transactions at sectoral level, controlling for the roles of country variables and focusing on distinct technological patterns of innovation. We found that, even in market‐based countries, where transfer of control is a frequent phenomenon, mergers are less frequent in those sectors where innovation follows cumulative processes and where takeovers represent a ‘breach of knowledge.’ This study provides empirical support to the fruitful line of research of varieties of capitalism (Hall and Soskice 2001 Hall, P. A. and Soskice, D., eds. 2001. Varieties of Capitalism, Oxford: Oxford University Press. [Crossref] [Google Scholar]) and shows that sectoral differences in M&A (mergers and acquisitions) may be seen in their complementarities with differences by country and their institutional frameworks. Results confirm that acquisitions may occur even in those economies where block‐holders are present, but where the good quality of institutions leaves no space for defence against takeovers. It also highlights the significant role played by takeover regulation, and suggests that the recent reforms in European harmonization should be implemented, so that the obstacles impeding takeovers can be removed. However, policy‐makers should also try to identify for which economies and sectoral fields of specialization, merger activities produce more beneficial effects and which turn out to be detrimental.     

Nowcasting Chinese GDP: information content of economic and financial data

This article applies the factor model proposed by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2005 Giannone, D., Reichlin, L. and Small, D. 2005. “Nowcasting GDP and inflation: The real time information content of macroeconomic data release”. In Finance and Economic Discussion Series 2005–42, Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.  [Google Scholar]) on a large data set to nowcast (i.e. current-quarter forecast) the annual growth rate of China's quarterly GDP. The data set contains 189 indicator series of several categories, such as prices, industrial production, fixed asset investment, external sector, money market, and financial market. This article also applies Bai and Ng's criteria (2002) to determine the number of common factors in the factor model. The identified model generates out-of-sample nowcasts for China's GDP with smaller mean-squared forecast errors than those of the random walk benchmark. Moreover, using the factor model, we find that interest rate data is the single most important block of information to improve estimates of current-quarter GDP in China. Other important blocks are consumer and retail prices data and fixed asset investment indicators.     

Underground Economy,Evasion and Inequality

Economic theory is paying increasing attention to a non-observed economy (NOE) and its causes. Recently, a couple of works (Rosser et al., 2000 Rosser, J. B., Rosser, M. V. and Ahmed, E. 2000. Income inequality and the informal economy in transitions economies. Journal of Comparative Economics, 28(1): 156–171.  [Google Scholar], 2003 Rosser, J. B., Rosser, M. V. and Ahmed, E. 2003. Multiple unofficial economy equilibria and income distribution dynamics in systemic transition. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 25(3): 425–447. [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) have claimed that there is a positive relationship between income inequality and the size of NOE. This supposed relationship is not so clear and deserves in-depth analysis. There is a crucial aspect that has been completely avoided in these studies: income inequality is mainly measured using ‘regular’ incomes and this fact could lead to some bias. The existence of a certain size of NOE implies some income evasion that can affect the inequality indexes used in the study of the relationship between NOE and inequality. Including the regional share of NOE in a wage equation, I find that, in the specific case of the Italian private sector employees, the income evasion attached to NOE tends to reduce inequality measured by regular wages statistics.     

Keynes vs. the Post Keynesians on the Principle of Effective Demand *

Abstract

The American Post Keynesians – those who attach importance to the capital ‘P’ and the absence of a hyphen between ‘post’ and ‘Keynesian’– claim to be Keynes' most literal interpreters or the ‘truest’ Keynesians (Holt et al. 1998 Holt, R. P.F., Rosser, J. B. Jr. and Wray, L. R. 1998. Paul Davidson's Economics Jerome Levy Economics Institute Working Paper no. 251. Blithewood, NY (www.levy.org) [Google Scholar]: 17). This paper compares the Post Keynesian interpretation of the Principle of Effective Demand, i.e. the D/Z-model, with Keynes' own presentation in chapter 3 of the General Theory– and finds substantial differences. A re-interpretation of the D/Z-model is offered that would bring it into line with chapter 3.