外商直接投资对中国环境污染影响的再考察——基于外资来源和行业差异视角

基于中国城市统计年鉴数据和中国工业企业数据库,采用GMM估计实证检验了外商直接投资(FDI)对于中国环境污染的影响效应。研究结果表明,FDI对于不同污染物的影响效应存在巨大差别,FDI提高了工业废水排放,降低了工业二氧化硫排放。进一步分析表明,造成这种现象的原因是港澳台投资和外国投资的质量和行业分布差异。港澳台投资具有负面的环境绩效,而外国投资对中国的环境污染状况具有改善作用。利用中国工业企业数据库,统计分析不同行业的外商资本金构成情况,发现不同来源的FDI在行业间的分布情况存在差异。FDI的质量和行业分布差异,导致FDI对不同污染物产生不同的环境效应。论文为学者们关于FDI对中国环境影响的争论提供了一个合理的解释,也对中国的引资政策和环境治理具有一定的参考价值。     

回归以来香港经济竞争力的变化状况及原因分析

本文首先从香港在世界经济竞争力的排名、在中国经济版图中的地位以及在时间序列上发展等角度剖析其经济竞争力的变化,然后利用主成分因子分析方法构造一个描述香港绝对经济竞争力的指数,量化分析香港经济竞争力的变化。结果表明香港金融、贸易和物流、旅游服务和专业服务竞争力在受到一系列事件的冲击下产生波动,但是总体上还是维持在一个较高水平,具有较强的竞争力。随后对香港经济竞争力变化的原因进行剖析,最后对如何提升香港经济竞争力给出了政策建议。     

香港和内地证券市场的动态竞争关系研究——基于A+H交叉上市公司的实证分析

交叉上市引起不同证券市场对有限投资者和资金资源的竞争。文章在阐述证券市场竞争的Lotka-Volterra模型基础上,通过2006-2010年38家A+H交叉上市企业的日交易数据实证分析了香港和内地证券市场之间的动态竞争过程。结果表明,两市场之间的动态竞争关系从交叉上市初期的捕食—诱饵关系逐步演化为目前的竞争互惠关系,且这种动态演化过程与企业交叉上市顺序没有显著的相关性。这说明内地证券市场正在不断完善,鼓励企业境外上市和A股回归将有利于内地证券市场的发展,而且互惠合作应是未来证券市场竞争的发展趋势。     

额外印花税与房价变动：基于香港的实证

房地产业在香港经济运行中占有不可忽视的地位。近年来,香港房价不断上涨引起了香港特区政府及香港社会各界的广泛关注,为保证香港房地产市场的平稳发展,特区政府实施了额外印花税等调控房地产市场的政策。本文分析了额外印花税影响房价变动的理论路径,并以香港2009—2012年房价变动的时间序列数据进行了实证检验。结果显示：额外印花税对香港房价的抑制作用不显著,额外印花税的实施并没有扭转房价持续走高的局面。     

香港联系汇率制度的现实启示及未来挑战

本文针对香港联系汇率制度的形成历史以及原因,总结出香港的联系汇率制度形成的偶然性申的必然性,分析香港联系汇率割度的优势和弊端,以及此项制度对于香港金融市场的重大意义。针对日新月异的国际资本市场,香港也面临着挑战,香港也必须与时俱进,加强和人民币之间的联系,进而形成合理的汇率机制。本文最后勾画了香港汇率制度未来的发展前景。     

The Role of Productivity and Financial Frictions in the Business Cycles of a Small Open Economy: Hong Kong 1984–2011

This paper analyzes the business cycle properties of the Hong Kong economy during the 1984–2011 period, which includes the financial crisis experienced in 1997/98 and the economic crisis of 2008–2010. We show that the volatility respectively, of output, of the growth rate of output and of real interest rates in Hong Kong are higher than the corresponding average volatility among developed economies. Furthermore, interest rates are countercyclical. We build a stochastic neoclassical small open‐economy model estimated with a Bayesian likelihood approach that seeks to replicate the main business cycle characteristics of Hong Kong, and through which we try to quantify the role played by exogenous total factor productivity (TFP) shocks (transitory and permanent), real interest rate shocks and financial frictions. The main finding is that financial frictions, jointly with the assumption that the country spread is endogenous, seem important in explaining the countercyclicality of the real interest rates.     

Currency Substitution Between the Hong Kong Dollar and the Renminbi in South China

The present paper estimates the demand for the Hong Kong currency circulating in the Guangdong Province of China and Macau. The amount of Hong Kong dollars circulating in the Guangdong (Macau) region is reckoned to be 7.4 (3.2) percent of the total amount issued in Hong Kong. The estimated coeficients in the currency demand equation suggest that the Hong Kong currency in Guangdong is used mainly for transactions. Therefore, in spite of strong evidence of currency substitution of the Renminbi with the Hong Kong Dollar, its impact on the exchange rate and on the international reserves of Hong Kong during currency crisis should be minimal.     

Growth of Hong Kong Before and After its Reversion to China: The China Factor

The paper focuses on the Hong Kong economy and attempts to measure the contribution of Hong Kong's integration with mainland China to its GDP growth rate. Two linkages have received particular attention, namely, Hong Kong's foreign direct investment (FDI) in China and immigrants from China. While the former is assumed to stimulate capital investment in Hong Kong but at the same time to reduce human capital formation (owing to a shrinkage of its domestic manufacturing sector), the latter is assumed to further reduce Hong Kong's average human capital because immigrants tend to be less educated. By making some assumptions about the future trajectories of Hong Kong direct investment in China and Chinese immigrants into Hong Kong after its reversion to China, the paper offers some predictions about Hong Kong's future economic growth.     

Envirox™ fuel-borne catalyst: Developing and launching a nano-fuel additive

The paper presents a product case study tracing the challenges of commercialization from research and product development to market launch. Envirox™ is a diesel fuel additive containing nanoparticles of cerium oxide, which enables fuel efficiency gains alongside reductions in harmful emissions such as black carbon (soot). The case traces developmental stages from lab experimentation and performance data sets, to raising finance, securing manufacturing capability and market testing in Hong Kong and the UK. The paper raises a number of generic and specific issues facing innovative small, university spin-out companies engaged in introducing nano-products to the market-place.     

债务融资、成长性与企业投资行为——对A股和香港上市公司的比较研究

本文以A股和香港上市公司为研究对象,考察债务融资和成长性对企业投资行为的影响。实证结果表明,企业债务与投资支出显著负相关,在低成长性公司中这一关系尤为显著。在低成长性公司中,A股上市公司的债务融资与投资支出的负相关关系比香港上市公司显著,香港中资上市公司的债务融资与投资支出的负相关关系比香港本地上市公司显著。     

人民币与港币一体化刍议

本文比较了人民币与港币一体化的成本效益，分析了两地货币一体化的现实基础和障碍，设计了人民币和港币货币一体化的模式，提出了相应的实施步骤和配套改革的对策建议。     

TRADE AND WAGE INEQUALITY: THE HONG KONG CASE

Abstract. This paper examines the effects of Hong Kong–mainland China trade on the wage inequality in Hong Kong. Because of the large volume of trade and the large income disparity between these two regions, this empirical study provides a good test of the theories on North–South trade. The econometric analyses show that the relative wage between the skilled and unskilled workers in Hong Kong increased as the share of the volume of Hong Kong's trade with mainland China in Hong Kong's total trade volume rose.     

Capital Mobility and Investor Confidence: The Case of Hong Kong's Reversion to China's Sovereignty

The paper hypothesizes that capital flows to and from Hong Kong in the years prior to its reversion to Chinese sovereignty were determined in part by the credibility of China's economic and political policies towards Hong Kong. During the transition period, several events occurred that caused investors, foreign and domestic, to reexamine and revise their perceptions about concentrating their investment in Hong Kong. These events were the ongoing negotiations between China and Great Britain that resulted in the signing of the Joint Resolution and the Basic Law, the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident, and Deng Xaioping's visit to China's southern provinces in 1992. As a result, Hong Kong provides a particularly relevant example of the impact government policies can have on investor confidence and capital mobility.     

Nexus between visitor arrivals and residential property rents in Hong Kong

The cost of living in Hong Kong is among the highest in the world. This paper investigates the effect of tourist arrivals on the residential property market in Hong Kong. It is demonstrated that the soaring number of tourists from Mainland China is pushing up property rents in Hong Kong. The substantial accommodation need generated by the increasing number of students from China is another contributing factor.     

人民币区域接受程度： 指数构建与影响因子计量 ——以东盟及中国香港为例

金融危机以来,改革现有的国际货币体系,逐步推进“去美元化”进程,已是国际社会共识。周边化及区域化是人民币国际化进程中的重要阶段,建立人民币区域接受程度监测指标体系,具有重要意义。本文基于对东盟及中国香港人民币使用情况的分析,提出人民币区域接受程度指数的构建框架并进行影响因子的计量分析,实证结果表明：(1)在政策推动及市场需求双重作用下,未来东盟人民币接受程度将持续提升,但短期内受经济政治影响会出现较大反复;(2)受政策推动、存款规模较小以及贬值预期影响,中国香港人民币贸易接受程度的提升快于金融接受程度,提高人民币存款占比有助于提升人民币接受程度;(3)中国香港经济状况对人民币接受程度的影响力要高于内地,反映出货币国际化是市场自发选择的过程;(4)由于货币替代影响双边货币政策效果,中国香港通胀水平、利率以及内地通胀水平会受中国香港人民币接受程度的反向影响。     

内地赴港游客在深圳旅游消费行为研究

内地赴港游客是深圳市重要的旅游细分市场。本文对游客消费特征、购买行为、购后行为等方面进行研究,分析影响赴港游客在深圳消费行为的因素。研究表明,通过深圳的赴港游客有三分之一在深圳停留,并且以个人游的中青年游客为主,性别、年龄结构、职业、旅游目的影响他们的停留动机、停留时间和停留目的。所以,应提供便利的交通,提供丰富的产品组合,扩大酒店规模,拓宽营销渠道和开发潜在游客,以更好地针对内地赴港游客发展深圳旅游业。     

上海证券市场与美国、中国香港证券市场的互动特征

在证券市场领域,美国市场对中国香港市场和上海市场均有影响。在上海市场和中国香港市场之间,上海市场的变动影响着中国香港市场,但并未发现中国香港市场影响上海市场的证据。这说明,上海证券市场已经成为中国区域的主导性市场。     

Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia

Hong Kong and Singapore are two of the most important and fastest growing markets for tourists to Australia. The purpose of this paper is to investigate movements in the long-run demand for tourist travel by these two origin countries for Australia. Some of the leading macroeconomic variables examined to explain tourism demand are incomes in Hong Kong and Singapore, tourism prices in Australia, and transportation costs and exchange rates between the two countries and Australia. Seasonally unadjusted quarterly data are used for Hong Kong for the period 1975(1)–1996(4), and for 1980(4)–1996(4) for Singapore. Several proxy variables are used for the incomes of tourists from Hong Kong and Singapore to explain quarterly tourist arrivals to Australia. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test for unit roots is examined in the univariate framework, and Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure is used to test for cointegration and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors. Error correction models are estimated to explain quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia.     

港商在内地投资的区位布局与实证研究

改革开放以来,港商在内地投资发展迅速,但港商在内地投资并不均衡,主要集中在珠三角地区,特别是其东部城市。本文先利用详实资料分析港资在内地及珠三角的详细区位布局及典型生产特征;然后为探究影响港资在珠三角选址的因素,运用主成分分析法找出影响其选址的几个主要成分,并作多元回归分析计算各成分对吸引港资的贡献率。     

Overeducation and Undereducation and their Effect on Earnings: Evidence from Hong Kong, 1986–1996

The expansion of the higher education sector and the structural changes in the Hong Kong economy in the late 1980s raise the issue of the incidence of overeducation in the Hong Kong labor market. Using the 1991 Hong Kong Census, and the 1986 and 1996 Hong Kong By‐census data, the present study finds that the incidence of overeducation in Hong Kong is only a temporary phenomenon. The rate of return to education increased, while the premium to overeducation decreased, between 1986 and 1996. It also finds that there is a tradeoff relation between education and experience.