出口与中国的经济增长：需求导向的分析

出口的增长除了能够直接推动经济增长之外，还对消费、投资、政府支出、进口造成影响，从而间接刺激经济增长。完整地考察出口与经济增长之间的关系必须同时考虑出口增长对经济增长的直接和间接推动作用。按此方法估计的结果表明，20世纪90年代以来外贸出口每增长10％，基本上能够推动GDP增长1％。     

收入分配影响经济增长的内在机制

由内生增长理论,本文提出了收入分配影响经济增长的间接机制和直接机制,并结合经济增长模式分析收入分配在不同阶段上如何影响经济增长.工业化时期,经济增长主要是由物质资本推动的,收入分配影响经济增长主要是直接机制一和间接机制一,收入差距扩大影响经济增长的方向不能确定.现代经济时期,经济增长主要是由人力资本推动的,收入分配影响经济增长主要的是直接机制二和间接机制二,收入差距扩大不利于经济增长.     

外贸与我国经济增长关系的计量分析

文章论述了传统的对外贸与经济增长关系的测算方法存在的缺陷,建立了新的模型,测算了我国出口对经济增长的直接效应和间接效应,从而对我国外贸在我国经济发展中的地位、作用和贡献做出一个较客观的测量和评价。     

后发优势、产业升级和发展中国家的经济增长——论后发优势对经济增长的间接作用

后发优势对经济增长具有直接作用和间接作用，传统后发优势理论着重强调了后发优势的直接作用，忽视了后发优势的间接作用。从理论和实践角度来看，后发优势的间接作用需要通过其他条件的有效配合，才能被充分发挥出来。因此，发展中国家可以通过创造各种有利条件，特别是合理有效的产业政策，来支持和配合后发优势间接作用的发挥，推动产业结构升级，促进经济增长。     

出口与增长:中国三十年经验实证(1978-2008)

改革开放三十年来,我国经济和时外贸易成就斐然.那么,对外贸易与经济增长两者之间究竟是什么关系,中国奇迹般的经济增长何以能够实现,出口对于增长贡献了什么,我们从出口和增长的关联中能够得到哪些经验.本文在全面解析三十年经济成就以及参考国内外文献的基础上,实证检验和分析了出口推动中国经济增长的作用,并从中总结和得到了相关的经验扣结论.     

金融结构与经济增长质量——基于2001—2012年中国省际面板数据的实证分析

从结构、稳定性、可持续性和福利4个方面构建了经济增长质量指数指标体系。利用2001—2012年中国的省际面板数据,运用GMM方法实证研究了金融结构对经济增长质量的影响。研究发现:总体来看,直接融资的发展能提升经济增长质量;从分项指标来看,直接融资在改善经济增长结构和经济增长可持续性方面的作用优于间接融资,但间接融资在提升经济增长福利方面的作用更好;直接融资和间接融资的发展都在一定程度加剧了经济波动。     

我国融资结构演进对经济增长的影响——基于新结构经济学视角的经验分析

要素禀赋结构决定了与之相匹配的融资结构.本文基于新结构经济学的理论视角,利用我国各省市数据系统考察了不同经济结构下,直接融资和间接融资对经济增长的不同作用.研究表明,随着时间的推移和经济体发展水平的上升,直接融资对经济增长的影响逐渐增强,而间接融资对经济增长的影响有所降低.同时在中、低发展水平地区,直接融资对经济增长的边际效应并不是十分显著,以间接融资为主的金融资源配置方式更有利于经济增长.     

技术创新与产业结构转型的地区经济增长效应

选取2006-2016年中国内地30个省（市、区）数据,构建动态空间杜宾模型并结合中介效应模型,研究技术创新影响经济增长的直接效应,以及产业结构转型对经济增长的间接效应。研究结果发现：我国经济增长存在正向空间溢出效应;经济增长具有动态、积极的正向连续性特征。在直接效应方面,本地区技术创新对经济增长呈显著正向影响,而周边地区技术创新呈显著负向影响;产业结构合理化对经济增长呈显著负向影响,产业结构高级化呈显著正向影响;技术创新与产业结构转型融合缓解了产业结构合理化对经济增长的抑制程度,提升了产业结构高级化对经济的促进效果。在间接效应方面,产业结构转型是技术创新与经济增长的中间传导环节,产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化均为正向中介效应。本地区技术创新对经济增长的直接效应大于间接效应,周边技术创新对经济增长的直接效应小于间接效应。     

我国出口、外国直接投资与经济增长之间关系的实证分析

本文根据我国1983年￣2003年期间的样本数据,利用协整技术、Granger因果检验方法和方差分解技术对出口贸易、外国直接投资与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。实证结果表明:三者之间存在协整关系,经济增长和外国直接投资、出口贸易之间存在相互的Granger因果关系,方差分解进一步表明了外国直接投资和出口都是推动经济增长的重要因素。     

中国区域信息网络基础设施投资效应的实证研究

采用新增长理论模型的投资效应分解方法,将信息网络基础投入的经济增长效应分解为直接投资效应和间接溢出效应。利用2003—2012年中国省际面板数据,运用面板工具变量法测算了各地区信息网络基础设施投入对经济增长的直接投资效应和间接溢出效应。研究结果表明:中国各地区的信息网络基础设施投入具有显著而积极的直接投资效应和间接溢出效应,但间接溢出效应具有一定的滞后性;总体而言,中国地区信息网络基础设施投入对经济增长具有显著的促进作用,且对TFP的提高具有积极作用;信息网络基础设施投入的经济增长效应存在地区差异。     

REMITTANCES AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT: SUBSTITUTES OR COMPLEMENTS IN ECONOMIC GROWTH?

Recent studies indicate that the effect of migrants’ remittances on the economic growth of receiving countries depends negatively on the level of development of the domestic financial sector. In this paper, we introduce a new indicator of financial development to measure the efficiency of the domestic banking system, and find the existence of complementarity between remittances and bank efficiency in economic growth, such that remittances promote growth only in countries whose banks function well. This result is robust to controls for other traditional measures of financial depth and institutional quality indicators.     

China's Regional Trade and Domestic Market Integrations

The global economic crisis in 2007 forced China to move from export‐led growth to promoting domestic demand. The move is significant, but the success of this new growth strategy depends critically on the level of domestic market integrations. In this paper, we use the methodology proposed by Anderson and Wincoop to examine China's domestic market integrations. We find evidence of border effects at both national and regional levels with significant regional differences, but they are smaller than some earlier studies suggest. Income growth, lower transportation costs, and higher intra‐industry trade all have positive effects on China's regional trade. Among the factors affecting regional trade, a better business environment has the largest positive impact on lifting China's domestic trade between regions, especially in intermediate goods, suggesting that improving business environment should be the priority of government at all levels in China.     

Human capital, economic growth, and regional inequality in China

We show how regional growth patterns in China depend on regional differences in physical, human, and infrastructure capital as well as on differences in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. We also evaluate the impact of market reforms, especially the reforms that followed Deng Xiaoping's “South Trip” in 1992 those that resulted from serious hardening of budget constraints of state enterprises around 1997. We find that FDI had a much larger effect on TFP growth before 1994 than after, and we attribute this to the encouragement of and increasing success of private and quasi-private enterprises. We find that human capital positively affects output and productivity growth in our cross-provincial study. Moreover, we find both direct and indirect effects of human capital on TFP growth. These impacts of education are more consistent than those found in cross-national studies. The direct effect is hypothesized to come from domestic innovation activities, while the indirect impact is a spillover effect of human capital on TFP growth. We conduct cost-benefit analysis of hypothetical investments in human capital and infrastructure. We find that, while investment in infrastructure generates higher returns in the developed, eastern regions than in the interior, investing in human capital generates slightly higher or comparable returns in the interior regions. We conclude that human capital investment in less-developed areas is justified on efficiency grounds and because it contributes to a reduction in regional inequality.     

Strategic policies and growth: an applied model of R&D-driven endogenous growth

We introduce and explore a general equilibrium model with R&D-driven endogenous growth, whose antecedents are the models of Romer (1990) [Romer, P.M., 1990. Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98, S71-102] and Grossman and Helpman (1991) [Grossman, G.M., Helpman E., 1991. Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, The MIT Press, Cambridge]. Utilizing evidence from recent econometric studies on sources of growth, the model also accounts explicitly for cross-border technological spillovers. The model is specified and calibrated to data from Japan, and is solved to obtain both the transitional and the steady-state equilibria. We explore the effects of selective trade and R&D promotion policies on long-run growth and social welfare. The model results suggest that while a strategic trade policy has little effect on re-allocating resources into domestic R&D activities, it can significantly affect the cross-border spillovers of technological knowledge, which, in turn, stimulates growth. We find that trade liberalization may cause the growth rate to fall and lead to a loss of social welfare in the long-run, although it improves welfare in the short-run. R&D promotion policies stimulate growth by inducing private agents to allocate more resources to domestic R&D, as well as to take greater advantage of global R&D spillovers. Here, we find significantly high growth effects together with sizable gains in social welfare at low incidence to tax payers.     

Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in small open economies: The case of Hong Kong

This paper studies the extent to which economic policy uncertainty shocks in major economies affect real economic activity in small open economies. We use Hong Kong as a case study. Following Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), we construct a newspaper‐based economic policy uncertainty index for Hong Kong for the period 1998 to 2016. We estimate international spillovers of uncertainty and find large spillovers of uncertainty from major economies to Hong Kong. Furthermore, using a structural vector autoregressive approach, we show that a rise in domestic economic policy uncertainty leads to tight financial conditions, and lower investment and vacancy posting, dampening domestic output growth.     

Does domestic financial development enhance the linkages between foreign direct investment and economic growth?

The study examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development, and economic growth in a panel of 95 developed and developing countries from 1983 to 2006. The study moves away from the traditional cross-sectional analysis, and focuses on more direct evidence of the channels via which FDI might help or retard economic growth. Using generalized method of moment (GMM) panel data analysis, we find strong evidence of a positive relationship between FDI inflows into a country and its economic performance. We also find evidence that domestic financial system is a significant prerequisite for FDI to have a positive effect on economic growth. Policy implications are clear. Effort should be made to reform and improve the development of domestic financial system in order to benefit more from the presence of FDI.     

Addressing causality in the effect of capital account liberalization on growth

Evidence supporting the positive effects of capital account liberalization on growth is mixed at best. Even after conditioning on the quality of domestic financial institutions, a significant number of studies still find no effect. One possible explanation is reverse causation. If low growth countries liberalize in order to spur growth, the observed correlation between growth and liberalization will underestimate the impact of capital account openness. To eliminate this bias, I instrument capital account liberalization with the average level of openness of other countries to capture the “fad” element in financial liberalization. IV estimates indicate a significant positive effect of liberalization on growth, confirming the predictions of economic theory.     

新常态下内需拉动经济增长是否存在有效边界*

新常态下,中国如何维持经济中高速增长既是重点,也是难点。由于外需拉动型经济增长方式逐渐难以为继,扩大内需的重要性日益突出。然而,扩大内需真的是有效国策吗？投资和消费拉动经济增长,是否存在有效边界？基于此,本文通过构建面板门限模型,利用2012-2013年中国275个市级数据,对内需拉动经济增长是否存在有效边界问题进行了实证检验。研究结果显示：投资拉动经济增长确实存在有效边界,当投资率较低时,增加投资能够有效拉动经济增长,当投资率已经较高时,增加投资对经济增长的拉动作用将不再显著;消费拉动经济增长也存在有效边界,当投资效率较低时,增加消费会抑制经济增长,当投资效率足够高时,增加消费才能够有效拉动经济增长。\     

The role of domestic demand in the economic growth of Malaysia: a cointegration analysis

For the past four decades (1961-2000), the Malaysian economy grew at an impressive average rate of 6.8% per annum. The rapid growth has been attributed, in part, to the tremendous success in the export-oriented industrialization policy. Several empirical studies on export-led growth for Malaysia have, however, led to inconclusive and mixed results. This may be due to the exclusion of domestic demand in the bivariate or multivariate models used in the studies. This study re-examines the role of domestic demand in economic growth in Malaysia. Using a three-variable cointegration analysis, the study shows that there exist short run bilateral causalities among the three variables, which implies that both the export-led growth and domestic demand-generated growth hypotheses are at least valid in the short run. On the other hand, the results are not supportive of the export-led growth hypothesis in the long run. Instead, the highly significant positive impact of domestic expenditure on economic growth implies that use of domestic demand as the catalyst for growth is appropriate.     

Asymmetry effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in Japan

Previous studies that assessed the effects of currency depreciation on the domestic production of Japan did not find any significant long-run effects. Using the linear ARDL approach we first confirm previous findings. We then argue and show that failure to find any significant link between the value of the yen and Japanese domestic production is due to assuming a linear adjustment mechanism or symmetric effects of exchange rate changes. Once we use the nonlinear ARDL approach we show that indeed exchange rate changes do have asymmetric effects on domestic production in Japan. Not only we observe adjustment asymmetry, but also short-run asymmetry that lasts into the long run. In the long run while strong yen seems to hurt domestic production in Japan, weak yen seems to have no effect.