教育对中国居民收入的影响分析——基于分位数回归和收入分布的考察

教育作为人力资本形成的最主要因素,影响着收入分配,但教育对不同收入水平人群的效应并不相同。本文采用分位数回归方法估计教育回报率,以分析教育对收入水平的影响,并通过考察教育扩张引起的收入分布位置和形态的变化来分析教育对收入不平等的影响。研究结果表明,性别、城乡、单位所有制类型以及职业类型对各分位点上的教育回报率影响显著;受教育程度提高使收入分布位置右移、离散程度增加,教育扩张加剧收入不平等;而右偏程度减小又减弱收入不平等程度;总体上说教育对收入不平等的影响作用被削弱了。     

单位性质对在职者教育收益率的影响研究

本文依据明瑟收入方程,根据CGSS(2006)数据,对不同性别下的不同教育阶段内(三个教育阶段)所属不同单位性质(四种单位性质)的教育收益率进行了回归分析,比较各收益率差异,研究表明,从不同教育阶段来看,无论男性还是女性,基本上从高中到大学到研究生其教育回报率逐层次递增;从单位性质来看,党政机关和个体经营行业的教育收益率显著低于企业单位和事业单位的教育收益率;从性别来看,女性在企业单位、事业单位、个体经营三种单位性质的教育收益率要显著高于男性,但在党政机关类单位性质的教育收益率较低。     

最低工资标准的就业效应研究--基于30个省际面板数据的实证分析

通过构建一个由最低工资标准等因素共同决定的劳动力就业函数,从理论层面分析最低工资标准提升等因素对城镇劳动力就业的影响。同时基于中国2004_2011年的省际面板数据,引入技术进步、城镇化、老年抚养比等指标,运用面板分位数回归方法进行实证分析。综合比较来看：现阶段最低工资标准提升与城镇劳动力就业呈显著正相关关系,而技术进步对城镇劳动力就业的影响不能一概而论,具有不确定性。其他控制变量如城镇化发展有利于提高城镇劳动力就业,而老年抚养比、对外开放度的提高却与城镇劳动力就业呈负相关关系。其对策含义为：要充分考虑相关因素对劳动力就业的冲击,理清不同地区、不同企业类型以及不同性别可能存在的有差异的劳动力就业效应,主张通过就业政策和劳动力市场制度的进一步完善,实现劳动力更加充分的就业。     

投资者异质信念对股票未来收益的预测性--基于中国股票市场的经验分析

本文对投资者异质信念采用了新的度量指标,运用组合价差分析与回归分析两种方法,全面考察了中国资本市场上异质信念与股票未来收益之间的关系。其中,根据收益率的厚尾分布特征,本文首次提出使用分位数回归方法进行针对性的研究。结果表明,异质信念对股票未来收益的影响是不稳定的,没有一种理论假设能够在收益率的整个条件分布上成立。具体而言,在中低收益率部分,异质信念对其有显著的负的影响,然而这种影响却随着收益率的增大而逐渐减小,直至为零,最终在高收益率部分转变为正的影响。这个结论与以往的研究结论有所不同,本文也试图对其进行了理论解释。     

教育、人力资本与地区经济差异

本文在增长回归框架下,应用Arellano与Bond等人倡导的动态面板数据方法(system-GMM估计)和传统的固定效应估计考察了教育对地区收入差异的影响。实证分析发现,劳动力教育程度的提高对地区经济增长有显著积极的影响,并表现出一定程度的溢出效应。不过与资本投资相比,教育差异仍不是地区经济差异的主要因素。此外,本文的增长回归还表明,中国各省区的经济发展存在较快的条件收敛迹象。随后,我们分析了实证结果的可能原因。     

我国教育收益率的城乡及性别差异分析

本文使用明瑟教育收益率方程,根据CGSS(2006)数据,分性别分城乡对教育收益率进行回归分析,比较各收益率差异。估计结果表明,在农村,男性的教育收益率为6.3%,女性的教育收益率为9.3%;在城镇,男性的教育收益率为7.3%,女性的教育收益率为9.8%。从而得出结论城镇的教育收益率高于农村,女性的教育收益率高于男性。文章进一步地对产生上述结论的原因进行了分析和解释,并提出了相应的建议。     

中国城乡教育收益率差异与收入差距

本文利用CHNS数据,研究了历次调查年份分城乡和性别的教育收益率的动态变化。研究发现,分城乡和性别的教育收益率都基本呈现逐年递增的趋势,但城镇的教育收益率总是高于农村,而无论是城镇还是农村,女性的教育收益率都高于男性。从动态变化来看,自2000年以来城乡教育收益率的差异逐年加大,其中主要是城乡男性劳动力的教育收益率差距增大。本文的研究表明,除教育水平本身的差异以外,教育收益率差异的扩大也是引起城乡收入差距加剧的重要原因。     

城乡收入差距影响因素的非参数逐点回归解析

文章利用1987-2008年我国的相关统计数据构建了非参数面板数据模型,采用非参数逐点回归估计方法,估计了我国的教育投入、教育产出、城市化水平、经济开放度、产业结构和政府经济行为等变量对城乡收入差距的影响,刻画了各影响因素关于自变量系数的动态演进趋势。研究表明:各影响因素关于自变量系数的逐点估计结果共有四种类型:"倒U型"、"U型"、"上升型"和"下降型";各影响因素对缩小城乡收入差距都有积极的作用,但在不同时期所起的作用不同。     

富爸爸、穷爸爸和子代收入差距

本文使用基于工具变量分位数回归的分解方法,通过构建低收入家庭子女与高收入家庭子女拥有相同的特征分布情况下的反事实收入分布,对高、低收入家庭子女的收入差距进行分解。结果显示,高、低收入家庭的子女之间的收入差距主要来源于教育水平、工作经验、工作单位性质等特征差异;两组子女间的回报差异存在,但主要影响低分位点处子女之间的收入差距,对高分位点处的收入差距影响有限。高分位点处子女之间的收入差距几乎能够完全被特征差异所解释。     

教育对个人收入差异的影响

本文在明瑟收入函数的基础上对我国城镇职工的收入影响因素进行了计量回归分析。实证研究的结果表明:近年来我国城镇职工的教育收益率有显著的提高,并且随着受教育程度的提高年均教育收益率呈提高的趋势;教育对个人收入的直接影响是显著的,但是教育并不是影响个人收入的决定性因素,行业差异和地区差异等因素对个人收入也起着非常显著的作用;只有受高等教育者跨行业流动的能力才更明显,并通过流动提高个人的收入;在目前的学费水平下,高等教育投资的直接教育净收益是正的,如果再考虑高等教育的间接收益,那么高等教育的总回报可以到达非常高的水平。     

The return to education and its distribution in urban China: evidence from quantile regression analysis

Based on Chinese Households Income Projects in 2002, this paper discusses the relationship between the return to education and the quantiles of income distribution. The findings in this paper show that the return to education is lower for the higher quantiles, while the estimators also depend on the choice of control variables. The methodology of the quantile regression might be helpful in adjusting the ability bias in the estimation on return to education. The policy implications of the paper highlight the impact of the education expansion in boosting the income growth for those in lower quantiles.     

The returns to education and wage penalty from overeducation: New evidence from Vietnam

This study intends to estimate the rate of returns to education in Vietnam, the distributive effects of education on wages, and the wage penalty from the incidence of overeducation in the Vietnamese labor market during 2004–2016. This study employs a pseudo-panel approach to address omitted variables bias and the unconditional quantile regression to identify the heterogeneity of returns to education across the income distribution. Our main finding indicates that the estimated rate of returns to education in Vietnam is approximately 6.5%, showing a downward bias from previous estimates. The returns vary across wage distributions, where a lower rate of return is observed in lower quantiles and a higher rate among those individuals at the higher quantiles. The returns to education have declined since 2008, confirming the oversupply of highly educated workers in the Vietnamese labor market with an estimated wage penalty of 17%. Government assistance measures are needed to reduce the overeducation and the wage penalty issues in the Vietnamese labor market.     

Monetary environments and stock returns revisited: A quantile regression approach

We investigate the impact of monetary conditions on stock market returns at different points on the return distributions. Our results reveal no association between stock returns and monetary environments at the lower quantiles. At the upper quantiles, however, we find that expansive monetary conditions lead to significantly larger stock returns. The relationship between returns and monetary conditions at the upper quantiles is also found to be asymmetric, exhibiting a monotonic increase in responsiveness at successive quantiles.     

Individual heterogeneity in the returns to schooling: instrumental variables quantile regression using twins data

Considerable effort has been exercised in estimating mean returns to education while carefully considering biases arising from unmeasured ability and measurement error. Recent work has investigated whether there are variations from the “mean” return to education across the population with mixed results. We use an instrumental variables estimator for quantile regression on a sample of twins to estimate an entire family of returns to education at different quantiles of the conditional distribution of wages while addressing simultaneity and measurement error biases. We test whether there is individual heterogeneity in returns to education and find that: more able individuals obtain more schooling perhaps due to lower marginal costs and/or higher marginal benefits of schooling and that higher ability individuals (those further to the right in the conditional distribution of wages) have higher returns to schooling consistent with a non-trivial interaction between schooling and unobserved abilities in the generation of earnings. The estimated returns are never lower than 9 percent and can be as high as 13 percent at the top of the conditional distribution of wages but they vary significantly only along the lower to middle quantiles. Our findings may have meaningful implications for the design of educational policies.     

Investor sentiment and the prediction of stock returns: a quantile regression approach

We employ quantile regression to provide a detailed picture of the stock return forecasting ability of investor sentiment. We find that investor sentiment predicts aggregate stock returns at lower quantiles. However, the forecasting power is lost at upper quantiles. The results are robust after controlling for a comprehensive set of macroeconomic and financial predictors and for characteristic portfolios. We also show that investor sentiment consists mainly of cash flow news and contains little information about discount rate news. The ability to forecast cash flows increases gradually from the lower quantiles to upper quantiles. Our results do not support that the ability of investor sentiment to predict stock returns comes from a rational forecast of future cash flows.     

公共部门与非公共部门收入差异的变迁

基于社会阶层动态演化理论,本文提出了部门收入差异阶段性假说。随后利用CHNS面板数据实证检验了该假说。结果表明,第一阶段(1989—1997年),在较高的收入层次上,非公共部门比公共部门具有明显的收入优势,并且这一收入优势随着收入水平的提高而提高。非公共部门的教育回报率也更高;第二阶段(2000—2009年),在中低收入分位数上,公共部门比非公共部门表现出明显的收入优势。在较高的收入分位数上,非公共部门不再具有收入优势。在较高的教育水平上,两大部门的教育回报率接近。同时,两个阶段中在较低和较高收入分位数上表现出的部门收入差异主要源自部门特征因素。实证研究支持了阶段性假说,为我国收入分配结构性调整提供了启示。     

人力资本回报率变化与收入差距:“马太效应”及其政策含义

在分析人力资本回报率变化对收入差距影响的基础上,本文运用抽样调查数据估计了教育回报率及其随教育程度和收入水平的变化。结果发现,中国目前的教育回报率仍然不高,总体来看,每增加1年教育,个人收入会增加4.34%;同时,教育回报率还展现出随收入水平增加而增加的趋势,最高95%收入者的教育回报率是最低5%收入者的2倍多。教育回报率变化的“马太效应”意味着收入差距不断扩大是市场失败的产物,在这种情况下,要缩小收入差距,人力资本投资必须更多地向穷人倾斜。     

A Quantile Regression Analysis of Wages in Panama

Differences in the effects of worker characteristics on wages in Panama at different points of the conditional wage distribution are investigated. Public sector employment increases wages relatively more at lower quantiles. Within the public sector, employment in that sector increases wages of the median worker and reduces wage inequality. Presence of a labor union increases relatively more private sector wages at lower quantiles. Unions reduce wage inequality within the union private sector and increase average wages within that sector. In the public sector, the presence of a labor union increases wages of men at lower quantiles at a lower rate than in the private sector. Self-employment decreases wages at lower quantiles and increases wages at higher quantiles. Urban location affects wages in a U-shaped pattern as one moves from lower to higher quantiles. Rates of return to experience are higher for men at higher quantiles. Experience increases men's wage inequality.     

The impact of income,economic openness and interest rates on housing prices in China: evidence from dynamic panel quantile regression

The rapid growth of housing prices has attracted the attention of the whole of society in China. This article adopts the dynamic panel quantile regression to investigate the impact of income, economic openness and interest rates on housing prices in China, based on the panel data of 35 major cities from 2002 to 2012. Compared with previous studies, we can more precisely and reasonably discuss the impact of these variables on different levels of housing prices. The empirical results indicate that the impact of independent variables on housing prices is heterogeneous across quantiles. Specifically, the impact of income is positive and significant across quantiles, and the impact becomes greater at the 90th and 95th quantiles. Economic openness has a positive and significant effect at the 5th–80th quantiles, which support the Balassa–Samuelson effect, but it is insignificant at the 90th and 95th quantiles. The impact of interest rates is positive and significant at low quantiles, but the impact is negative and insignificant at high quantiles. Furthermore, we also find that the coefficients of interest rates at various quantiles are smaller. In addition, the population has a significant positive effect across quantiles. Finally, we provide important policy implications.     

Return Migration and Occupational Change

Return migrants exhibit a high tendency for self-employment over waged employment. Using cross- sectional data from Pakistan, the paper explores the determinants of this choice. Retirement from the domestic labor market is not a reason for opting for self-employment. The preference for non-farm self-employment is a two-period process of self-selection. Migrants who expect to switch occupation to non-farm self-employment upon return save more from high transitory overseas income than do their counterparts. Upon return, savings become a significant factor in the choice of self-employment over waged employment. International migration and return have little influence on the choice of farm self-employment.