A policy model to analyze macroprudential regulations and monetary policy

We construct a small‐open‐economy, new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general‐equilibrium model with real financial linkages to analyze the effects of financial shocks and macroprudential policies on the Canadian economy. The model incorporates rich interactions between the balance sheets of households, firms and banks, long‐term household and business debt, macroprudential policy instruments and nominal and real rigidities and is calibrated to match dynamics in Canadian macroeconomic and financial data. We study the transmission of monetary policy and financial and real shocks in the model economy and analyze the effectiveness of various policies in simultaneously achieving macroeconomic and financial stability. We find that, in terms of reducing household debt, more targeted tools such as loan‐to‐value regulations are the most effective and least costly, followed by bank capital regulations and monetary policy, respectively.     

The interaction between macroprudential and monetary policies: The cases of Norway and Sweden

To shed light on the interaction between macroprudential and monetary policies, we study the inward transmission of foreign monetary policy in conjunction with domestic macroprudential and monetary policies in Norway and Sweden. Using detailed bank‐level data, we show how Norwegian and Swedish banks’ lending reacts to monetary policy surprises arising abroad, controlling for the domestic macroprudential stance and the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies. In both countries, domestic macroprudential policy helps mitigate the effects arising from foreign monetary surprises.     

Assessing the macroeconomic impact of alternative macroprudential policies

This article assesses effects on the wider economy and overall costs and benefits of two alternative macroprudential policies - loan-to-value ratios on mortgage lending and variable bank capital adequacy targets. It also traces the potential effects of such policies if introduced prior to the subprime crisis. The work is performed within the National Institute Global Econometric Model, with a focus on Germany, Italy and the UK. Detailed banking sectors and addition of a macroprudential block to our model enable effects of policies to be captured. A systemic risk index tracks the likelihood of the occurrence of a banking crisis and establishes thresholds at which macroprudential policies should be activated by the authorities. Capital adequacy impacts the economy by acting on the spread between borrowing and lending of corporates and households, while loan-to-value transmits through its impact on the housing market. We find generally loan-to-value policy has a lesser effect than capital adequacy on crisis probabilities and net benefits, but there is considerable cross country variation. We show that the introduction of macroprudential policy prior to the crisis would have led to improvement in a number of key macroeconomic measures and might thus have reduced the incidence of the crisis.     

The interaction between macroprudential policy and monetary policy: Overview

This paper presents the main findings of an International Banking Research Network initiative examining the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy in determining international bank lending. We give an overview on the data, empirical specifications and results of the seven papers from the initiative. The papers are from a range of core and smaller advanced economies, and emerging markets . The main findings are as follows. First, there is evidence that macroprudential policy in recipient countries can partly offset the spillover effects of monetary policy conducted in core countries. Meanwhile, domestic macroprudential policy in core countries can also affect the cross‐border transmission of domestic monetary policy via lending abroad, by limiting the increase in lending by less strongly capitalized banks. Second, the findings highlight that studying heterogeneities across banks provides complementary insights to studies using more aggregate data and focusing on average effects. In particular, we find that individual bank characteristics such as bank size or GSIB status play a first‐order role in the transmission of these policies. Finally, the impacts differ considerably across prudential policy instruments, which also suggests the importance of more granular analysis.     

Systemic risk: The coordination of macroprudential and monetary policies in China

The literature documents the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies in controlling systemic risk, but empirical evidence of a systemwide framework that effectively coordinates the two policies is lacking. This study assesses the effectiveness, channels, and timeliness of monetary and macroprudential policies’ impacts on systemic risk in China from January 2009 to June 2018, and contributes to the discussion of how to coordinate these policies. Using an index synthesized from 28 indicators to proxy China’s systemic risk, we find the following: (1) A contractionary monetary (macroprudential) shock increases (reduces) systemic risk over the entire shock time period. (2) Macroprudential (monetary) policy is effective in the long (short) term. (3) The systemic risk intervention effect of monetary (macroprudential) policy is channeled through inflation control (asset price stability).     

The effects of prudential policies on bank leverage and insolvency risk in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper analyses the effects of prudential policies on leverage and insolvency risk in eleven Central and Eastern Europe banking systems in the 2005–2014 period. It explores the relationship between leverage, insolvency risk and regulation variables, and the temporal patterns of this relationship. It also examines whether the effects of prudential policies on leverage and insolvency risk are influenced by bank ownership structure and financial cycle. The paper finds a consistent link between prudential regulation and leverage, which varies over the sample period. Conversely, the insolvency risk shows a stronger relationship with macroprudential policies. The estimates reveal that prudential policies work better on leverage and z-score for foreign banks. Both leverage and insolvency risk are better mitigated over booms. Finally, prudential policies have similar effects on both domestic and foreign banks' stability in normal times, while the effects are opposite during turbulences. These dissimilarities are raising challenges to the conduct of prudential policies.     

Mortgage lending,monetary policy,and prudential measures in small euro‐area economies: Evidence from Ireland and the Netherlands

This paper examines whether the increased use of macroprudential policies since the global financial crisis has affected the impact of (euro‐area and foreign) monetary policy on mortgage lending in Ireland and the Netherlands, which are both small open economies in the euro area. Using quarterly bank‐level data on domestic lending in both countries for 2003–2018, we find that restrictive euro‐area monetary policy shocks reduce the growth of mortgage lending. We find evidence that stricter domestic prudential regulation mitigates this effect in Ireland, but not so in the Netherlands. There is some weak evidence for an international bank lending channel that can be mitigated by stricter lender‐based domestic prudential regulation.     

Macroprudential policy and the inward transmission of monetary policy: The case of Chile,Mexico, and Russia

This paper studies whether domestic macroprudential policy may attenuate the inward transmission of monetary policy shocks from the United States to domestic bank lending growth in three emerging market economies—Chile, Mexico, and Russia. Identification relies on banks’ heterogeneous exposure to prudential policies and the fact that foreign monetary policy shocks are exogenous from the perspective of these economies. After analyzing the effects of the aggregate domestic prudential policy stance, we focus on specific prudential policies targeting mortgage and consumer loans, as well as foreign‐currency deposits. Although our overall results are mixed, we find evidence that the strength of international monetary policy spillovers varies depending on the stance of domestic macroprudential policy. In particular, a tighter reserve requirement stance over foreign‐currency deposits in Chile dampens the effect of an international monetary policy shock on domestic local‐currency lending, but reinforces that on foreign‐currency lending, whereas in Russia, it dampens the effect on both local‐currency and foreign‐currency lending, although to different degrees. Prudential policies targeting the asset side of banks’ balance sheets, such as mortgage loans or consumer credit, are found to amplify international monetary policy spillovers in some cases and attenuate it in others, depending on the country context.     

Dynamic Stochastic General EQUILIBRIUM ‐ BASED Assessment of Nonlinear Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from Hong Kong

In the wake of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, the macroeconomic discussion has returned to the topic of proactive macroprudential policies. The use of loan‐to‐value (LTV) policies to curb booming property markets has long been used by Hong Kong's monetary authorities to actively manage the potential fallout from housing price bubbles. In 2013 the Hong Kong authorities supplemented the LTV policies with property transfer taxes. Here, we also analyse the merits of these tax‐based macroprudential policies in the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Furthermore, we calibrate the impact of both countercyclical macroprudential policies employed in conjunction with forward guidance. We conclude that both policy approaches can limit the pace of housing price increases. As regards the comparison of LTV and tax‐based measures, it turns out that property acquisition taxes are more effective.     

Household debt,macroprudential rules,and monetary policy

Today's Canadian economy features a historic high of household debt and persistently low growth rate. The average debt-to-GDP ratio has reached the level experienced in the U.S. just prior to the recent financial crisis. In this paper, we ask whether monetary policy should lean against the household indebtedness or macroprudential policies are better suited for the task. To provide a quantitative answer, we develop a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a micro-founded banking sector. We estimate the model using Canadian data and conduct policy experiments. Our findings favor macroprudential approach to reining in indebtedness: using monetary policy that reacts to household debt increases inflation volatility and lowers borrowers' welfare, while using macroprudential policies such as lowering the loan-to-value ratio limit increases borrowers' welfare.     

Global banking and the conduct of macroprudential policy in a monetary union

This paper questions the role of cross-border lending in the definition of national macroprudential policies in the European Monetary Union. We build and estimate a two-country DSGE model with corporate and interbank cross-border loans, Core-Periphery diverging financial cycles and a national implementation of coordinated macroprudential measures based on Countercyclical Capital Buffers. We get three main results. First, targeting a national credit-to-GDP ratio should be favored to federal averages as this rule induces better stabilizing performances in front of important divergences in credit cycles between core and peripheral countries. Second, policies reacting to the evolution of national credit supply should be favored as the transmission channel of macroprudential policy directly impacts the marginal cost of loan production and, by so, financial intermediaries. Third, the interest of lifting up macroprudential policymaking to the supra-national level remains questionable for admissible value of international lending between Eurozone countries. Indeed, national capital buffers reacting to the union-wide loan-to-GDP ratio only lead to the same stabilization results than the one obtained under the national reaction if cross-border lending reaches 45%. However, even if cross-border linkages are high enough to justify the implementation of a federal adjusted solution, the reaction to national lending conditions remains remarkably optimal.     

Bank loan versus financial lease: how do traditional and innovative approaches within the banking sector influence economic growth? A comparative analysis between the US and China

ABSTRACT

The argument over the effects of financial structures on economic growth remains unsettled. This study, therefore, compares the dynamic correlation and lead–lag relationship between the different financial approaches within the banking sector (that is, traditional bank loans versus innovative financial leasing) and economic growth. We employ a continuous wavelet analysis using time-series data from 1982–2017 from the US (the world’s largest developed country) and China (the world’s largest developing country). The empirical results show that (1) episodes of significant correlation usually emerge during periods of reform, crisis or policy implementation; and (2) in China, traditional banking promotes economic growth in the long term, while the real economy only imputes the evolution of banks during critical economic reforms in the short term. Meanwhile, financial leasing could only promote the development of the real economy under suitable regulation; and (3) in the US, before the crises, the irrational growth of the real economy could increase bank assets, while during the crises, the traditional banking approach harms economic growth, and after the crises, financial leases play an important role in recovery. Therefore, we suggest that policymakers should establish adequate policies and regulations to solve the situation.     

The Global Governance of Systemic Risk: How Measurement Practices Tame Macroprudential Politics

ABSTRACT

This article explores how systemic risk has been governed at the international level after the financial crisis. While macroprudential ideas have been widely embraced, the policy instruments used to implement them have typically revolved more narrowly around the monitoring of risk posed by discrete ‘systemically important’ entities. This operational focus on individual entities sidelines the more radical implications of macroprudential theory regarding fallacies of composition, fundamental uncertainty and the public control of finance. We explain this tension using a performative understanding of risk as a socio-technical construction, and illustrate its underlying dynamics through case studies of systemic risk governance at the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF or Fund). Drawing on official reports, consultation documents and archival sources, we argue that the FSB’s and IMF’s translations of systemic risk into a measurable and attributable object have undermined the transformative potential of the macroprudential agenda. The two cases illustrate how practices of quantification can make systemic risk seemingly more governable but ultimately more elusive.     

Capital controls,macroprudential regulation,and the bank balance sheet channel

We incorporate a banking sector with balance sheet frictions into a model of a small open economy and compare the effectiveness of capital controls and macroprudential regulation. We show that the welfare-improving effect of capital controls is larger than that of macroprudential regulation if the degree of financial friction between domestic banks and foreign investors is high, while the welfare-improving effect of macroprudential regulation is larger than that of capital controls if the degree of financial friction is low. We also show that the welfare ranking of the two policies depends on whether an economy suffers from liability dollarization.     

Assessing Macroprudential Policies: Case of South Korea*

In this paper, we develop methods for assessing the sensitivity of capital flows to global financial conditions. We use these methods to assess the impact of macroprudential policies introduced by South Korea in 2010. Relative to a comparison group of countries, we find that the sensitivity of capital flows into South Korea to global conditions decreased in the period following the introduction of macroprudential policies.     

Financial liberalization,financial regulation and bank efficiency: a multi-country analysis

This article investigates the impact of financial reforms on bank efficiency. More specifically, we distinguish between two different types of financial reforms, i.e. financial liberalization measures and measures of the quality of bank regulation and supervision (i.e. financial regulation), and study their relationship to bank efficiency separately. Moreover, we analyse whether the impact of financial liberalization on bank efficiency is conditional on the quality of regulation and supervision of the banking system. We apply stochastic frontier analysis to calculate bank efficiency at the individual bank level and use a new and detailed database that measures different aspects of financial reforms. The data-set consists of 87 312 bank-year observations covering 61 countries for the period 1996–2005. Overall, we show that the impact of financial liberalization policies on bank efficiency is conditional on the extent to which bank regulation and supervision has been adopted and developed.     

Optimal monetary and macroprudential policies: Gains and pitfalls in a model of financial intermediation

We estimate a quantitative general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and financial intermediation to examine the interaction of monetary and macroprudential stabilization policies. The estimation procedure uses credit spreads to help identify the role of financial shocks amenable to stabilization via monetary or macroprudential instruments. The estimated model implies that monetary policy should not respond strongly to the credit cycle and can only partially insulate the economy from the distortionary effects of financial frictions/shocks. A counter-cyclical macroprudential instrument can enhance welfare, but faces important implementation challenges. In particular, a Ramsey planner who adjusts a leverage tax in an optimal way can largely insulate the economy from shocks to intermediation, but a simple-rule approach must be cautious not to limit credit expansions associated with efficient investment opportunities. These results demonstrate the importance of considering both optimal Ramsey policies and simpler, but more practical, approaches in an empirically grounded model.     

通货膨胀目标制并不能解决我国货币政策低效率问题——一个基于政策时滞和扰动冲击的研究

本文在一个引入时滞、政策传导扰动和中介目标的货币政策模型中，分析了通货膨胀目标制的实施与货币政策效率之间的关系。我们发现，由于货币政策的时滞和货币政策传导机制的不畅，中央银行无法及时地对经济中的扰动做出正确的估计，尽管可以利用中间目标变量和其他参考变量的实际值对目标值的偏离所给出的信息来适当调整货币政策，但仍然无法对冲击及时做出正确的响应；再加上中央银行货币政策执行中的财政占优、金融占优和外部占优问题，使得中央银行无法执行其意愿的政策，因此通货膨胀目标制的引入无助于解决货币政策的低效率问题。     

Too-Big-To-Fail: Why Megabanks Have Not Become Smaller Since the Global Financial Crisis?

ABSTRACT

More than ten years after the global financial crisis, what has happened to the ‘too-big-to-fail’ (TBTF) banks whose reckless behavior was among its preconditions, but which received public support and guarantees in the midst of that crisis? Insofar as this too-big-to-fail status helped create the crisis and then imposed costs on the rest of society, we would expect these banks to have shrunk. We investigate the evolution of 31 global-TBTF banks and find that their overall size has hardly recorded any substantial change. However, there is no sense of urgency in the flourishing post-crisis literature on TBTF banks about the need to contain their size; the prevalent view therein is that if properly regulated, the risks that arise from a financial system dominated by TBTF banks are manageable. This view rests on the same overly narrow theoretical underpinnings whose flaws were exposed in the crisis. We argue that too-big-to-fail banking is embedded in a set of self-reinforcing policies—consolidation, balance-sheet support through quantitative easing, favorable regulations, bank lobbying, and geo-economic and geo-political considerations—which explain why these banks have not shrunk and why they remain a threat to financial stability, well after the lessons of the crisis should have been learned.     

The financial and economic performance of social banks

ABSTRACT

The financial crisis of 2008 provides evidence for the instability of the conventional banking system. Social banks may present a viable alternative for conventional banks. This article analyses the performance of social banks related to the bank business model, economic efficiency, asset quality, and stability by comparing social banks with banks where the difference is likely to be large, namely with the 30 global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) of the Financial Stability Board over the period 2000–2014. We also analyse the relative impact of the global financial crisis on the bank performance. The performance of social banks and G-SIBs is surprisingly similar.