政府支出与私人消费的关系研究——基于跨国数据(1983-2008年)的面板协整分析

文章运用面板协整分析方法和世界上36个国家(20个发达国家和16个发展中国家)1983-2008年的面板数据进行跨国研究,通过建立变系数面板模型并结合可支配收入和宏观经济环境的影响,分析了政府支出和私人消费的关系。研究结果显示,总体上而言,样本国家的政府消费支出与私人消费成互补关系,可支配收入仍然是影响私人消费的主要因素,宏观经济环境(经济开放程度和失业率)对消费的影响在统计上很不显著。为了扩大消费,中国政府应实施积极的财政政策、扩大财政支出和提高社会保障水平以及切实解决民生基本难题。     

政府支出与私人消费的关系研究——基于跨国数据（1983—2008年）的面板协整分析

文章运用面板协整分析方法和世界上36个国家（20个发达国家和16个发展中国家）1983—2008年的面板数据进行跨国研究,通过建立变系数面板模型并结合可支配收入和宏观经济环境的影响,分析了政府支出和私人消费的关系。研究结果显示,总体上而言,样本国家的政府消费支出与私人消费成互补关系,可支配收入仍然是影响私人消费的主要因素,宏观经济环境（经济开放程度和失业率）对消费的影响在统计上很不显著。为了扩大消费,中国政府应实施积极的财政政策、扩大财政支出和提高社会保障水平以及切实解决民生基本难题。     

Non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy in OECD economies: an empirical study

This article explores the hypothesis that the propensity to consume out of income varies in a nonlinear fashion with fiscal variables, and in particular with government debt per capita. Using panel data from 18 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, we examine whether there is any empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that households move from non-Ricardian to Ricardian behaviour as government debt reaches high levels and as uncertainty about future taxes increases. Our results provide support for this hypothesis, and also suggest that private and government consumption are complements in the household utility function.     

Consumption multipliers of different types of public spending: a structural vector error correction analysis for the UK

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government spending and private consumption in the UK, for which there is scarce previous empirical evidence. We disaggregate public expenditure into three categories and search for the corresponding private consumption multipliers. Our analysis is based on the estimation of a structural vector error correction model with quarterly non-interpolated data for the period 1981:1–2007:4. Initially, we estimate negative but barely significant effects on consumption of shocks to total public spending. Then, using the public spending breaking down, we find that while shocks to public wages crowd-out private consumption as predicted by neoclassical models, shocks to the non-systematic component of social spending and government purchases of goods and services generate a positive reaction, so to crowd-in private consumption. Thus, the qualitative and quantitative dimensions of fiscal multipliers on private consumption change across different public spending categories. Our findings suggest that any empirical support of competing theoretical models on the issue would benefit from a disaggregation of government expenditure, rather than focusing on the aggregate measure.     

GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION AND THE COMPOSITION OF PRIVATE EXPENDITURE: A CONDITIONAL ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

In this paper we provide empirical evidence of the relationship between government purchases and private expenditure by adopting a microeconomic approach. Using UK quarterly data, a long‐run demand system conditioned to the public sector is obtained by specifying a vector error correction model in which government consumption is assumed as an exogenous I(1) forcing variable. Our findings reject the hypothesis of separability of individual preferences between public and private expenditures, with simultaneous crowding‐out/in effects. Moreover, crowding‐out effects of government consumption on private spending are found to be larger for those goods and services that produce similar utility.     

Why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock?

Abstract.  Some recent empirical evidence suggests that private consumption is crowded-in by government spending. This outcome violates neoclassical macroeconomic theory, according to which the negative wealth effect brought about by a rise in public expenditure should decrease consumption. In this paper, we develop a simple real business cycle model where preferences depend on private and public spending, and households are habit forming. The model is estimated by the maximum-likelihood method using U.S. data. Estimation results indicate a strong Edgeworth complementarity between private and public spending. This feature enables the model to generate a positive response of consumption following a government spending shock. In addition, the impulse-response functions generated by the estimated model are generally consistent with those obtained from a benchmark vector autoregression.     

A panel cointegration approach to estimating substitution elasticities in consumption

This paper investigates the relationship between government spending and private consumption. The general framework is a cointegration approach of Ogaki (1992) used to estimate the intratemporal elasticity of substitution between government and private consumption in a panel of 15 European countries. Recently developed non-stationary panel methodologies that assume cross-section dependence are applied. Results indicate an Edgeworth substitutability between private and public spending.     

The effects of fiscal policy on consumption in recessions and expansions

This paper explores in a yearly panel of nineteen OECD countries from 1970–2002 the effects of fiscal policy changes on private consumption in recessions and expansions. In the presence of binding liquidity constraints on households, fiscal policy is more effective in boosting private consumption in recessions than in expansions. The effect is more pronounced in countries characterized by a less developed consumer credit market. This happens because the fraction of individuals that face binding liquidity constraints in a recession will consume the extra income generated following an unanticipated tax cut or government spending increase.     

内生增长、政府生产性支出与中国居民消费

中国财政支出的较大一部分用于生产建设,中国居民消费与政府生产性支出表现出稳健的正相关关系,这一事实与从标准的新古典和新凯恩斯模型得出的挤出效应截然不同。本文构建了包含存量和流量两部分政府生产性支出的内生增长模型,研究表明,政府支出增加在提高税负、挤出居民消费的同时,也通过其生产性增加收入、挤入居民消费;政府支出增加究竟挤入还是挤出居民消费取决于两种效应的比较以及政府的生产性支出比重和税负水平。政府生产性支出的最优结构等于其相对生产性之比,政府支出的最优规模等于政府支出的生产性。     

Public goods, merit goods, and the relation between private and government consumption

In this paper, we investigate the relation between public and private consumption, by constructing a general government spending data set, by function, for 12 European countries. In particular, we split government consumption into two categories. The first category—“public goods”—includes defence, public order, and justice. The second category—“merit goods”—includes health, education, and other services that could have been provided privately. Equations from a relatively general permanent income model are estimated by GMM. The estimates are fairly robust in showing that public goods substitute while merit goods complement private consumption. However, the relation between merit goods and private goods turns out to be stronger than that between public goods and private goods. Thus, in the aggregate government and private consumption are complements.     

TAX DISCOUNTING VS. CROWDING OUT

The “crowding out” effect of debt-financed government spending on the private sector consumption-saving decision and on private investment behavior has been a controversial subject for several years. Do increases in debt-financed government spending stimulate private consumption and saving in the short run, as well as private consumption in subsequent periods? Or does the realization that future taxes must be raised to finance repayment of the debt result in a lack of stimulus for consumption as well as no detrimental impact on subsequent private saving? This article empirically tests for the presence and/or magnitude of tax discounting and crowding out, carefully distinguishing between the two, and decomposes government debt instruments according to their maturities in order to determine impact due to a reorientation of debt structure. The results do not support the existence of tax discounting, suggesting instead that government deficits do stimulate current consumption.     

Does the crowding-in effect of public spending on private consumption undermine neoclassical models?

Empirical evidence from vector autoregressions (VARs) showing that public spending shocks crowd in private consumption has been seen as evidence against standard neoclassical models of the business cycle. We show that a standard real business cycle model in which all agents including the government optimize is compatible with the results from the empirical literature. A VAR estimated using artificial data simulated from the model indicates that, under standard assumptions to identify public spending shocks, an increase in public spending is associated with an increase in private consumption and the real wage. The implied impulse responses are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to those in the empirical literature.     

中国经济周期特征与财政政策效应——一个基于三部门RBC模型的实证分析

本文采用随机动态一般均衡方法,将政府支出作为外生随机冲击变量,构建中国三部门实际经济周期(RBC)模型,并对改革后的中国经济进行了实证检验,从而考察中国宏观经济波动的周期特征及财政政策的效应问题。研究发现,在包含政府部门的RBC模型中,技术冲击和政府支出冲击可以解释70%以上的中国经济波动特征,中国经济波动是技术因素、供给因素和需求因素综合影响的共同产物。此外,本文证实改革后政府支出对居民消费产生了一定的挤出效应。     

THE TWO‐WAY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND CORRUPTION AND ITS EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

The existing empirical evidence suggests that in low‐income economies, an increase in government spending leads to a reduction of growth. This article aims to explain this empirical fact by considering a growth model that incorporates a two‐way relationship between corruption and government spending. That is, government spending gives rise to corruption and rent seeking, which feeds back by distorting the structure and size of government spending. In addition, the cost of corruption depends on the wage rate. Therefore, in low‐income economies, increases in government spending tend to generate larger social losses caused by a higher level of rent dissipation and a concomitant rise in corruption and government inefficiency. Consequently, in such economies, an increase in government spending is more likely to result in a decline of economic growth. (JEL H3, O11, O41)     

Do expectations matter? Reassessing the effects of government spending on key macroeconomic variables in Germany

This article contributes to the debate on how to properly identify exogenous fiscal shocks in the data. We include expectations held by consumers and firms into the standard vector autoregression (VAR) framework based on information from historical issues of the German political magazine Der Spiegel. The findings underscore the need to account for expectations, as failing to do so leads to significant misinterpretation of the effects of government spending. When neglecting anticipation effects, our results support the recent findings for Germany by pointing to a rather positive effect of government spending on GDP. However, inclusion of expectations yields a change in this effect, suggesting that government spending is much less beneficial for GDP, as it crowds out private consumption and investment.     

财政政策、货币政策与国外经济援助

本文通过把国外经济援助分成直接对私人的经济援助和直接对政府的经济援助来讨论这两类经济援助对政府财政政策和货币政策的影响。我们发现对私人的经济援助的增加可以使得私人消费水平和政府公共消费水平增加 ,但是它也导致政府收入税税率和通货膨胀率的提高 ;另一方面 ,对政府的经济援助增加可以使得均衡时的私人资本存量、私人消费水平和政府公共消费水平增加 ,同时可以使得均衡时的收入税税率和通货膨胀率下降。     

Private and Givernment Investment: A Study of Three OECD Countries

This paper examines the relationship between private investment and government spending in Australia, Britain and the United States. Since all time series data are stationary in first difference and cointegrated, these series are represented by an error correction model. Variance decomposition and impulse response functions are employed to investigate the effects of government spending on private investment. Generally the empirical results provide limited support for "crowding out" effects of government investment on private investment. The rate of interest and the corporate profit ability showed significant effects on private investment in two out of three cases. [E62, E63]     

Disaggregated approach to government spending shocks: a theoretical analysis

We calibrate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that features a transmission mechanism with different types of government spending, while the literature usually treats government spending as a homogenous compound. In this regard, we manage to distinguish between different types of government spending (namely: government investment, government wage component consumption and non-wage component consumption) where each type of spending has a varied role in the economy. The government wage increase has the largest positive effect both on private consumption and output by affecting the economy through the government production. This is a natural consequence of government production being complementary to private consumption in our model. Other two government spending types, namely government non-wage consumption and government investment, also have positive effects on output, whereas their responses on (private) consumption are mostly negative. These results provide an alternative explanation for the wide range of multipliers existing in the literature as our setup enables them to produce different effects on macroeconomic variables.     

Provincial government expenditures in Canada: an empirical analysis

Most empirical studies have sought to explain the overall growth of the total government expenditures. Few studies have focused on the growth of spending at the provincial level. This article seeks to fill the gap. It examines the growth of government expenditures in Canadian provinces. Data spanning the past three decades are used to explain the growth of provincial government expenditures in Canada and to test alternative hypotheses. From a basic general theoretical model, three empirical models are developed and tested. It is concluded that the growth of the private sector share of the Provincial Gross Domestic Product (PGDP), capacity utilization and factors such as federal transfer payments to the provincial governments best explain the growth in expenditure at the provincial level. The expenditure policies of provincial governments are found to be independent of the political stance of the political parties in power. Estimated short-run and long-run ‘income’ elasticities of provincial government expenditures with respect to PGDP reveal that government expenditures have grown in proportion to PGDP. The growth of provincial spending over the last three decades has been stimulated by the demand for services (such as education and health) and by federal transfer payment programmes through their combined income and substitution effects.     

Diaspora and government welfare spending: Do migrant remittances increase public social protection?

This paper contributes to the debate on the impact of migrant remittances on welfare spending. It empirically examines the influence that remittances have on public social protection (SP) expenditures using macrolevel panel data on a sample of 38 high‐ and middle‐income countries over the period 2005–2014. The paper finds that remittances have a negative influence on public SP expenditures, suggesting that they serve as a private substitute to public SP. The results highlight the importance of remittances to government welfare spending and sustainable development.