Transforming structural econometrics: substantive vs. statistical premises of inference

How could one transform structural econometrics with a view to deliver empirical models that generate reliable inferences and trustworthy evidence for or against theories or claims, as well as provide trustable guidance for economic policy makers? Nell and Errouaki, in Rational Econometric Man: Transforming Structural Econometrics, put forward their proposal on how to achieve that, by discussing the effectiveness of alternative proposals in the literature. There is a lot to agree with in this book, but the primary aim of this note is to initiate the dialogue on issues where opinions differ on how to transform structural econometrics. The discussion focuses on what I consider a crucial aspect of empirical modeling—statistical adequacy—but the authors question its practical usefulness for empirical modeling. I will attempt to make a case that ‘methodological institutionalism’ cannot be properly implemented without employing the notion of statistical adequacy.     

Methodological institutionalism as a transformation of structural econometrics

I agree with Nell and Errouaki that an econometrics based on neoclassical economic theory fails to develop any insight into deep structures. But my methodology differs slightly from theirs because of my view that an econometrics based on any economic theory would fail in this sense. Economics is an inexact science, incapable of providing a complete set of causal factors to explain any economic phenomenon. I arrive at a different call for more fieldwork in econometrics due to a somewhat different reading of the criticisms of Trygve Haavelmo, Wassily Leontief, the young Tjalling Koopmans and Oskar Morgenstern. These economists not only shared the idea that economic structure is different in nature from natural laws and that statistical analysis alone is not enough to arrive at knowledge of this structure, but also that economic theory as an additional source of knowledge would not be sufficient either. Another additional source of knowledge is needed—that is, field expertise.     

The econometric challenge to system dynamics and vice versa: Some future perspectives

In the last years, there have been some attempts to compare different approaches for dynamic modeling of socioeconomic systems and to suggest guidelines for choosing among them. This paper continues these efforts with special emphasis on system dynamics and econometrics, which are commonly regarded as the roughest competitors in this field of simulation. It will present a detailed catalogue of model features, relevant for an adequate characterization of system dynamics and econometrics, and will stress the importance to notice the interconnections that exist between different features. The paper then gives a systematic survey of the conceivable relations between system dynamics and econometrics, and closes with a short epistemological outlook.     

现代经济计量分析方法应用研究

现代经济计量方法是当前比较流行的经济分析方法,已经得到了广泛应用并显示了独特优势.但由于经济计量学在我国起步较晚,使得我国在一定程度上存在着经济计量方法的应用不够科学以及普及率偏低等亟待解决的问题.     

Keynes and probability: An assessment

Abstract

Most interpreters agree that Keynes had a wide-ranging, complex, ‘vision of the world’, which underlies his theoretical contributions. Whenever this is forgotten, as happens in the so-called neoclassical synthesis, not only the original Keynesian spirit goes lost but also, and especially, we lose substantive bricks for our theoretical constructions. The paper considers an important instance of this general rule; namely Keynes's views on the logic of probability, meant as the field concerning human behaviour in an uncertain world (hence connected to, but distinct from, the pure theory of probability, meant as a field of mathematics). The paper begins by recalling the main aspects of the classical and frequentist approaches to probability and the main criticisms they received, pertaining among other things to the limits of their applicability. We then consider Keynes's own views, stressing three aspects: the definition of probability as pertaining to the field of logic, the notion of uncertainty and of the ‘weight of the argument’, the ‘theory of groups’. We then discuss the subjective approach of de Finetti, Ramsey and Savage, and contrast it with Keynes's own views. Finally, we consider the implications of our analysis for the interpretation of Keynes's General Theory, and of his attitude towards econometrics.     

Interrogating Sickonomics,from Diagnosis to Cure: A Response to Hodgson

Hodgson's review of our books argues against us that marginalism neither adopted methodological individualism nor excluded the social from economics. Thus, he finds a partial solution to sickonomics in abandoning the term methodological individualism and using both structures and individuals as analytical starting point(s), revisiting Marshallian marginalism dressed up in socio-institutional clothing. He also denies any relationship between the current malaise in economics and the marginal revolution, as we claim, focusing exclusively on institutional developments since the Second World War. We show Hodgson is either partial or wrong on all of these counts. Firstly, his alternative to methodological individualism is untenable. Secondly, institutions, although implicitly present in Marshallian and Walrasian economics, play no substantive analytical role and as such are superfluous. Finally, although institutional factors help explain the sickness of modern economics (in addition to socioeconomic, ideological, political, and intellectual factors), the intellectual roots of this decay lie in the conceptual framework established around the marginal revolution.     

Econometrics and equilibrium models

In Rational Econometric Man, Edward Nell and Karim Errouaki present a welcome and timely case for the view that econometrics and econometric model-building may not be the magic tools to solve all empirical questions despite what many seem to have thought they were in the 1960s. Here I examine some possible problems with econometric models that have to do with their usually taking the form of equilibrium models. Some of these problems were recognized by Trygve Haavelmo decades ago. And as Aris Spanos has recently discussed, the problems are often the result of what we say in our textbooks. Some problems have to do with what we mean by econometric parameters and others with how we use probabilities.     

中国工业产业结构与企业技术研发行为的实证分析

产业结构升级一直是我国经济学界所关心的一个问题，工业产业的升级更是一个众所关注的焦点。本文在前人研究的基础上，利用中国工业产业数据，采用了经典的SCP范式模型．对熊彼特的两个经典假说进行了验证。发现竞争与企业利润同时对企业研发具有促进作用．熊彼特两个相互矛盾的结论同时得到了支持。通过对应分析，我们对中国工业内产业不同特点和企业不同特点进行了归类，提出国有企业在不同行业的产值比重是导致了这两个看似矛盾的结论同时并存的原因。     

From Social Theory to Explaining Sickonomics: A Response to Dimitris Milonakis and Ben Fine

This response shows that, in their reply to my critique of their work, Ben Fine and Dimitris Milonakis generally maintain the impression that there is a single, widely accepted definition of methodological individualism, but they do not identify it. They assert that social structures (undefined but seemingly specified to exclude law and institutions) have ‘analytical priority’ and logically (but tacitly) imply that individuals should have no part in the analysis of social or economic phenomena. They mischaracterise Hodgson's (2011) position on Marshall by quoting just one part-sentence out of context. Fine, Milonakis and Hodgson agree that the intellectual roots of the predominance of technique over substance in modern economics can partly be traced to the 1870–1900 period, but disagree on what they are.     

Integrating econometrics: A modern undergraduate economics capstone experience

Angrist and Pischke (2017) call for a pedagogical paradigm shift by pointing out that econometrics courses often do not align with modern empirical approaches employed by economists. This article's authors propose a modern capstone experience, designed to address these concerns by integrating econometrics into the traditional capstone approach. They couple a full econometrics course with a traditional capstone course by weaving a cohesive econometrics-heavy research paper through the two courses. They feel this approach addresses the lack of econometrics skills among economics majors while simultaneously making some necessary improvements to undergraduate econometrics content. They hope this article will be a valuable resource for programs changing course requirements or revamping their curriculum to better fit the increasing demand for data analysis skills in the job market.     

Half empty, half full and why we can agree to disagree forever

Aumann [Aumann R., 1976. Agreeing to disagree. Annals of Statisitics 4, 1236–1239] derives his famous we cannot agree to disagree result under the assumption that people are expected utility (=EU) decision makers. Motivated by empirical evidence against EU theory, we study the possibility of agreeing to disagree within the framework of Choquet expected utility (=CEU) theory which generalizes EU theory by allowing for ambiguous beliefs. As our first main contribution, we show that people may well agree to disagree if their Bayesian updating of ambiguous beliefs is psychologically biased in our sense. Remarkably, this finding holds regardless of whether people with identical priors apply the same psychologically biased Bayesian update rule or not. As our second main contribution, we develop a formal model of Bayesian learning under ambiguity. As a key feature of our approach the posterior subjective beliefs do, in general, not converge to “true” probabilities which is in line with psychological evidence against converging learning behavior. This finding thus formally establishes that CEU decision makers may even agree to disagree in the long-run despite the fact that they always received the same information.     

"城中村"现象的再剖析

“城中村”在其产生发展的过程中给整个社会带来了很多影响，有正面的．有负面的。人们长期以来把焦点放在了负面影响的讨论上，而它有利于整个社会经济发展的正面影响往往被忽视、被低估，这些值得我们加以研究。     

Can Google data help predict French youth unemployment?

According to the growing “Google econometrics” literature, Google queries may help predict economic activity. The aim of our paper is to test whether these data can enhance predictions of youth unemployment in France.Because we have weekly series on web search queries and monthly series on unemployment for 15- to 24-year olds, we use the unobserved components approach in order to exploit all available information. Our model is estimated with a modified version of the Kalman filter, taking into account the twofold issue of non-stationarity and multiple frequencies in our data.We find that including Google data improves unemployment predictions relative to a competing model that does not employ search data queries.     

Income comparison and happiness: The role of fair income distribution

Relative income gap is one of the most popular approaches for explaining the income–happiness relationship. We argue in this article that when people compare their incomes, they care about distributional fairness more than relative income disparity. It is difficult for us to explain China's income–happiness paradox if we simply compare the income gap and do not explore the income‐generation process leading to income inequality. We therefore employ an approach based on a responsibility‐sensitive theory of justice that decomposes individual income into fair and unfair components. As a proxy for distributional unfairness, unfair income is considered the main source of unhappiness. Using data from the Chinese Household Income Project survey, we find strong support for the negative relationship between income unfairness and happiness. We also find a significantly positive relationship between the relative income gap and income unfairness, which leads us to consider the income comparison hypothesis as the explanation for the income–happiness paradox in a new light. Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of our results.     

The estimation of a hedonic asking and offer rent equation model: An EM algorithm approach

In this paper we claim that modeling housing markets, specifically the rental housing market, should be based on some sort of disequilibrium framework. We posit a model of asking and offer rents in the spirit of a sample selectivity model. This approach allows us not only to test whether landlords and tenants agree upon the marginal evaluations of unit attributes, but also to estimate the impact on rental demand of tenant specific attributes such as family income and race. Since estimators obtained from this procedure are consistent, but not efficient in this two equation context, we employ an EM algorithm in our estimation in order to obtain MLE equivalent estimators. We have found that our data support the use of this disequilibrium approach in that the coefficient estimates for the asking rent equation, under the assumptions of a sample selectivity model, are not coincident with those obtained from an uncorrected equation.     

Nonlinear trend stationarity in global and hemispheric temperatures

This study investigates the issue of whether our Earth’s surface temperature exhibits a stochastic trend. Using state-of-the-art econometrics, we analyse the latest available temperature anomaly data. Our results indicate that both global and hemispheric temperatures may appear to have a stochastic trend when in fact they are stationary around a nonlinear deterministic trend and structural breaks are responsible. Furthermore, the nonlinearity found in the temperature trend is more complex than what has been reported in previous studies.     

Analysis of wage flexibility across the Euro Area: evidence from the process of convergence of the labour income share ratio

This article analyses wage flexibility as a factor in the unemployment rate across 12 Euro Area countries. We use extensive evidence pertaining to the countercyclical behaviour of the labour income share ratio to estimate its equilibrium value in the long run. This measure is calculated using a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve. Additionally, by using spatial econometrics, we can incorporate into the study the interdependence in the inflation among the countries. As a result, we identify countries that might see an improvement in their employment rates by improving their wage flexibility. We also identify countries with high unemployment that is not a consequence of a lack of wage flexibility.     

Panel‐data Estimates of the Production Function and the Revenue Function: What Difference Does It Make?*

The lack of individual firm information on output prices is a major problem in the econometrics of production. In particular, it may be expected to account for a significant share of the large discrepancies found between the cross‐sectional and time‐series estimates of capital and scale elasticities. However, taking advantage of two panel‐data samples for which we had such information, we find that estimating the revenue function (using a nominal output measure) or the production function proper (using a real output measure) makes very little difference for our results. The biases due to other sources of specification errors are probably more important.     

First-Year Study Success in Economics and Econometrics: The Role of Gender,Motivation, and Math Skills

In this study, the authors investigate the relationships among gender, math skills, motivation, and study success in economics and econometrics. They find that female students have stronger intrinsic motivation, yet lower study confidence than their male counterparts. They also find weak evidence for a gender gap over the entire first-year curriculum of economics or econometrics. In terms of size and significance, their estimates of gender effects rank below the effects of preparatory education and motivation.     

Computing,the bootstrap and economics

A major contention in this paper is that scientific models can be viewed as virtual realities, implemented, or rendered, by mathematical equations or by computer simulations. Their purpose is to help us understand the external reality that they model. In economics, particularly in econometrics, models make use of random elements, so as to provide quantitatively for phenomena that we cannot or do not wish to model explicitly. By varying the realizations of the random elements in a simulation, it is possible to study counterfactual outcomes, which are necessary for any discussion of causality. The bootstrap is virtual reality within an outer reality. The principle of the bootstrap is that, if its virtual reality mimics as closely as possible the reality that contains it, it can be used to study aspects of that outer reality. The idea of bootstrap iteration is explored, and a discrete model discussed that allows investigators to perform iteration to any desired level.