旅游产业集聚的动因分析

从区域角度来看,旅游产业往往是集聚发展的。地理学和经济学对于产业集聚的动因从不同角度进行了解释。旅游产业与制造业的产业特性不同,因此,促动旅游产业集聚发展的因素也存在差别。综合地理学和经济学的观点,结合对平遥古城旅游企业的调查,笔者认为,旅游产业集聚的动因包括旅游产业的特性要求、外部经济效应和政府规划的促动,三者共同推动了旅游产业的集聚。     

全国应用旅游地理学与资源县旅游开发研讨会盛况空前

全国应用旅游地理学与资源县旅游开发研讨会盛况空前由中国地理学会旅游地理专业委员会、广西资源县人民政府，广西桂林地区旅游局、中国旅游协会区域旅游开发专业委员会、北京大学城市与环境学系旅游开发与管理专业、青岛大学旅游系等联合召开的“全国应用旅游地理学与资...     

旅游目的地选择意愿的影响因素——以韶山为例

旅游目的地选择意愿是旅游地理学的重要命题,探寻其影响因素,理论意义和实践价值明显。选取选择意愿为因变量,基于相关研究成果筛选自变量,构建二元Logistic模型。以韶山为旅游目的地,采用问卷工具在长沙采集基础数据,分析得出职业、客源地与目的地距离、旅游产品类型偏好、目的地旅游经历、景区知晓度、景区美誉度、邻近旅游地吸引力等10个变量对目的地选择意愿的影响效果显著。结论丰富了旅游地理学的旅游者空间行为的研究成果,对目的地市场营销、旅游合作等策略制定有一定的参考价值。     

基于地理视角的兴山县旅游经济发展研究

在地理学研究中如何推动经济活动的高效开展也是其中的重点研究内容之一,针对区域的地理区位条件进行优化组合,从而实现区域经济发展是当前经济地理学研究中的热点.当前兴山县旅游经济的发展有较多的有利地理区位条件.但是,交通通达度低、市场服务环境不完善、配套服务设施存在一定的不足则是制约性因素.为此,需要优化交通区位条件、规范旅游产品供应商行为、加强兴山县旅游发展的配套设施环境建设     

中国式现代化理论视角的旅游地理研究——科学问题与学术使命

中国式现代化理论体系的构建为新时代旅游地理研究提供了学术指引。通过分析中国式现代化的科学内涵，结合旅游地理学的学科定位和发展走向，从理论、方法和应用层面构建了旅游地理研究新框架。强调必须发挥旅游地理学区域性、综合性、交叉性和应用性的学科特点与优势，以旅游人地关系理论为核心，综合应用多学科理论和技术方法，在加强旅游空间分析、旅游地演化规律和旅游可持续发展理论研究的同时，重视现代性理论、融合共生理论、公平正义理论、场景理论、人类命运共同体与人类文明新形态理论在旅游地理领域的创新应用，逐步构建符合中国式现代化发展要求的旅游地理学理论体系。文章提出要强化“中国特色”的旅游地理研究，深入探究人口（需求）特征与流动性规律、旅游发展促进共同富裕的机制与路径、文旅深度融合与高质量发展、旅游人地和谐共生与可持续发展、国际旅游地缘格局与旅游对世界和平的促进作用与效应等科学问题，推动旅游地理学自主知识创新。旅游地理学者应成为中国式旅游现代化研究的先行者和实践者，积极担当响应国家战略的政治使命、促进共同富裕的社会使命、协调“两个文明”的文化使命、推动人地和谐的生态使命、服务行业发展的经济使命、推进和平发展的国...     

无居民海岛生态旅游发展战略研究--以广东省茂名市放鸡岛为例

依托较为脆弱的生态环境的海岛旅游开发是无居民海岛开发的重要组成部分。文章运用生态景观学和旅游地理学的基础知识，以茂名市放鸡岛为例，探讨无居民海岛的生态旅游规划及其发展战略。     

港口旅游发展研究进展与实证——以宁波港为例

港口旅游是我国旅游地理学研究的新领域,但理论研究明显滞后于港口旅游建设实践的需求。在借鉴国内外研究成果和方法的基础上,讨论了港口旅游概念的内涵和特点,分析了港口旅游产品结构和空间地域结构。在此基础上,以宁波港为例,探讨宁波港旅游发展的现状与优势,提出构建港城旅游一体化地域系统、完善港口旅游产品功能结构、打造两大港口标志性旅游品牌的对策建议。     

长株潭旅游经济圈构建及发展模式研究

在界定长株潭旅游经济圈概念的基础上,依据区域旅游规划原理、区域经济学、经济地理学等相关理论以及对长株潭城市群的旅游资源、旅游设施等的综合分析构建长株潭旅游经济圈,并对其旅游资源进行分类与评价,对旅游形象进行设计,对客源市场进行定位,进一步提出长株潭旅游经济圈的发展模式。     

全国人文地理教学研究会第三次学术会议在沪举行

全国人文地理教学研究会第三次会议,已于1989年6月10日—14日在上海举行。会议由该会副理事长钱今昔教授和理事王焕令教授,于治民、袁书琪、祝炜平主持。会议主要内容是:(1)探讨人文地理学的基本理论和新兴分支学科,如文化地理学、信息地理学、人才地理学、民俗地理学和旅游地理学的理论和方法,提出了现代人文地理学必须以唯物论为基础:(2)探讨和研究我国现代人文地理奠基人胡焕庸教授的学术成就;(3)由应邀来会的美国威斯康辛大学童承康教授作《美国民族地理》,西德不来梅大学托夫     

旅游资源开发的区域比较研究--以湖南城步苗族自治县为例

区域比较是地理学一切研究方法的基础，是进行区域分析的方法之一，文章把对湖南城步苗族自治县旅游资源开发的区域比较研究定位在与其地理位置上毗邻的六个县市，从旅游资源特色、旅游资源开发条件、现状、程度及旅游发展前景等进行了研究比较。在此基础上提出了城步旅游资源开发的战略，即规划带动，实施可持续发展战略；形象驱动，实施旅游品牌战略；区域联动，实施旅游网络战略。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.     

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth*

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth are identified. Included is a discussion of his contributions on: the determinants of differences in speed of adoption of innovations; the use of patents to measure technology; the private and social returns to R&D; and spillover effects from R&D. Griliches's own evaluation of his research contribution is compared to the evaluation of others in the field, using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the online Web of Science. Griliches's most important contribution is his 1957 Econometrica hybrid corn paper that is a foundation of the economics of technological innovation. Remarkably, the trend in annual citations to the paper has continued to increase for over 40 years. Finally, we summarize Griliches's most recent views on the practice of economics and on the most important unanswered questions in the economics of technology and growth.     

Evidence on the impact of R&D and ICT investments on innovation and productivity in Italian firms

Both research and development (R&D) and information and communication technology (ICT) investment have been identified as sources of relative innovation underperformance in Europe vis-à-vis the USA. In this article, we investigate the R&D and ICT investment at the firm level in an effort to assess their relative importance and to what extent they are complements or substitutes. We use data on a large unbalanced panel data sample of Italian manufacturing firms constructed from four consecutive waves of a survey of manufacturing firms, to estimate a version of the CDM model of R&D, innovation, and productivity [Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse 1998. Research, innovation and productivity: An econometric analysis at the firm level. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 7, no. 2: 115–58] that has been modified to include ICT investment and R&D as the two main inputs into innovation and productivity. We find that R&D and ICT are both strongly associated with innovation and productivity, with R&D being more important for innovation, and ICT investment being more important for productivity. For the median firm, rates of return to both investments are so high that they suggest considerably underinvestment in both these activities. We explore the possible complementarity between R&D and ICT in innovation and production, but find none, although we do find complementarity between R&D and worker skill in innovation.     

新员工主动社会化行为与组织承诺关系研究——以社会资本为中介变量

为了探索新员工主动社会化行为影响组织承诺的过程,本文对来自企业的401个有效样本进行了实证分析。本研究运用层级回归的方法,控制了人口统计变量的影响后,发现员工的搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为对组织承诺有直接的正面影响,同时,通过员工社会资本对员工组织承诺产生了间接的正面影响。社会资本在员工搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为影响组织承诺的机制中起部分中介作用。员工的关系构建行为对组织承诺没有显著影响,但对员工社会资本存在显著的正面影响。