中国经济增长、外商直接投资和出口贸易的互动实证分析

本文使用28个省1978年到2000年的面板数据，着重分析出口贸易和外商直接投资对经济表现的影响。使用Petroni的面板单位根数据检验和Arellano及Bond的动态面板数据估计技术，我们发现出口贸易和外商直接投资对经济增长有着重大的正面效应。研究结果表明，其他发展中国家和转轨经济国家可以借鉴中国政府采用的这两种发展政策：推动出口和引入国际水准的技术与商业管理实践。     

贸易自由化、外商直接投资与出口贸易地区差异

文章检验了贸易自由化、外商直接投资流入与出口贸易地区差异的关系。通过构建3×2×2空间一般均衡模型和使用2002-2008年全国28个省份面板数据,研究发现外商直接投资与地区出口贸易之间关系不确定,外商直接投资流入与贸易自由化共同造成出口贸易地区间差异。此外,中国与东盟贸易自由区更利于内陆地区出口贸易,劳动力禀赋对出口没有显著影响,物质资本和人力资本禀赋对出口具有正向影响,人民币升值会促进而非抑制出口贸易。     

出口贸易、FDI与中国农产品加工业全要素生产率——基于行业面板数据的实证分析

通过利用中国农产品加工业12个子行业的面板数据,首先运用DEA的Malmquist方法测算了中国农产品加工业全要素生产率及其分解,之后重点考察了包括出口贸易和外商直接投资在内的各因素对全要素生产率的影响。研究结果发现:在2001-2011年期间,中国农产品加工业全要素生产率整体处于上升趋势,支持了中国农产品加工业全要素生产率平均增长率上升的动力主要来自于技术进步;出口贸易的发展对农产品加工业全要素生产率和技术效率的提高作用并不明显;外商直接投资所带来的技术溢出对于提高中国农产品加工业的全要素生产率有较好的促进作用。根据研究结论,文章得到的政策启示是:提升农产品加工业出口贸易对全要素生产率的正向作用;强化外商直接投资所带来的技术溢出效应;提高农产品加工业人力资本水平;改善农产品加工业RD投入结构和市场环境;改进农产品加工业的规模经济效应。     

外商直接投资与我国的区域出口绩效

本文采用面板数据(PanelData)模型方法,对1991年—2002年外商直接投资对我国省级出口效应进行了分析,结果表明:90年代以来,外商直接投资在总体上对我国的省级出口贸易起到了积极的促进作用。通过对中、东、西三个地区的进一步研究发现:外商直接投资对我国三个不同的区域出口影响不同,东部地区的影响效应要强于中部地区,同时发现外商直接投资对西部地区的省级出口影响并不显著。     

外商直接投资对陕西出口贸易结构的影响研究

近年来,我国的经济迅猛增长,市场发展繁荣,为外商提供了良好的市场环境,而在促进我国经济的增长和出口贸易结构的升级方面,外商直接投资亦发挥着举足轻重的作用.改革开放以来,陕西省对引进和充分利用外资十分重视.伴随着“一带一路”经济政策的实施与发展,未来陕西省的开放程度会不断扩大,吸引外商直接投资的能力必将大幅提高.本文运用陕西省外商直接投资和出口贸易的相关统计数据,针对外商直接投资对陕西省出口贸易结构的影响进行实证分析,实证结果表明外商直接投资的增加有利于陕西省出口贸易总额的扩大和出口贸易结构的优化,但陕西省外商直接投资多集中于第二产业,产业分布不均.本文基于此提出合理利用外商直接投资、优化陕西出口贸易结构的相关对策及建议.     

外商直接投资与天津出口贸易的互动关系——基于脉冲响应函数法的实证分析

本文利用天津1980-2007年的年度统计数据,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验方法分析了出口贸易与外商直接投资之间的关系,并利用广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解法进一步分析了两者间的动态关系。研究结果表明,天津的出口贸易与外商直接投资、贸易伙伴国的经济增长和进口贸易之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,外商直接投资、贸易伙伴国的经济增长和进口贸易都是出口贸易变动的原因。从动态角度看,在短期内,天津出口贸易对外商直接投资冲击的反应短期较为明显,而贸易伙伴国经济增长与进口贸易对出口贸易的影响在短期并不显著;从长期来看,FDI对出口贸易具有明显的替代效应,出口贸易增长主要依赖于进口贸易,而贸易伙伴国经济增长对出口贸易的影响作用十分有限。     

进出口、FDI与经济增长关系研究——基于福建省面板数据

本文选取福建省9个地级市的面板数据来分析进出口、外商直接投资(FDI)对经济增长的影响.结果表明:福建省出口与FDI对经济增长都有着显著的推动作用,福建省的FDI对经济增长的贡献率为0.4265,出口对经济增长的贡献率为0.5374;此外,不论是在长期还是在短期,福建省的外商直接投资与经济增长都是互为因果关系;同样的,出口贸易与经济增长也是存在着这种双向的因果关系.     

FDI流入的产业结构对我国出口贸易结构的影响

本文研究了FDI流入的技术外溢、集聚效应和挤出效应对出口贸易结构的影响.运用实证分析方法,通过分析外商直接投资的产业结构对按初级产品、工业制成品和要素密集度分类的出口贸易结构的影响,研究外商直接投资对中国出口贸易结构调整的表象作用;通过分析外商直接投资的产业结构对按三次产业和按贸易方式分类的出口贸易结构的影响,研究外商直接投资对中国出口贸易结构的实质性影响.     

外商直接投资、市场竞争及对我国制造业的技术外溢效应——基于随机前沿生产函数的分析

本文使用我国2000-2003年201个四位码制造业的面板数据,借助随机前沿生产函数,分析国内市场的竞争程度与外商直接投资技术外溢效应的关系.研究结果显示,国内市场竞争程度是影响外商直接投资技术外溢效应的重要变量.国内市场较高的竞争程度抑制外商直接投资对本地企业产生负技术外溢效应,促进正技术外溢效应的产生.这也部分地解释了为什么相同数量外商直接投资的流入和存在对不同国家、地区或行业产生了截然不同的影响.     

金融发展对外商直接投资经济增长效应的比较分析——基于面板分位数回归技术

金融市场的发展程度是东道国吸收外商直接投资的一个重要因素。运用我国28个省际面板数据,利用现代分位数回归分析技术实证分析了我国金融市场、外商直接投资与经济增长之间的作用机制。结果显示:金融市场的发展程度对经济增长的直接影响和外商直接投资通过金融市场对经济增长的间接影响均与经济发展阶段和区域差异有显著关联;其次,相比传统分析方法,分位数技术可以更细致地显现经济变量之间的作用轨迹。     

外商直接投资、对外贸易与环境污染的实证研究

文章通过中国30个省(市、区)2000-2005年面板数据,对FDI与外贸的环境污染效应进行了实证分析.对外贸易与FDI整体上都促进了中国经济增长,其中,进口对经济增长的作用较小;出口与FDI加剧了中国环境污染;进口贸易可抑制环境污染,但作用比较小;人力资本具有显著的促进经济增长与抑制环境污染的双重功能.本文的政策建议是,调整出口与引资政策,发展教育,促进人力资本积累.     

The role of exports,FDI and imports in development: evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries

The disappointing economic performance of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies in the late 1980s prompted reforms in foreign trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the early 1990s. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and Pedroni panel estimation procedures that allow for heterogeneity, this study found that exports and FDI have a significant impact on economic growth. Granger-type causality tests show the interrelatedness of exports, FDI, imports and income variables. The results also provide evidence of a two-stage causal chain of exports, imports and income. This article calls for more market-oriented policy reforms in SSA countries.     

Regional analysis of the impact of inward foreign direct investment on economic growth in the Chinese electronic industry

This article empirically investigates the impact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on regional economic growth in the Chinese electronic industry (CEI). Utilizing a provincial-level panel data spanning the period 1989 to 2009, we specify and estimate an endogenous economic growth model for the CEI. Empirical results indicate that, for the coastal region, FDI inflows have been growth enhancing, while in the central and western regions the impact of FDI on economic growth is mixed, depending on the channel of capital flow. Results also indicate that exports, human capital, science and technology investment and fixed asset investment are growth enhancing, while unemployment and foreign R&D investment are growth impeding in the CEI.     

Determinants of foreign direct investment of OECD countries 1991–2001

It is the objective of this paper to identify the determinants that led to the increase in worldwide foreign direct investment during the 1990s. The paper also addresses the question of whether these factors influenced exports differently. Therefore, using data from 22 countries reporting to the OECD, gravity models for bilateral FDI stocks/flows and exports are estimated, first in a cross-section setting for 1999 and then as a panel data set for the period 1991–2001. In order to control for EU-specific effects, a distinction is made between intra-EU25 observations and observations outside the EU25 area. Regressions are repeated with exports as a dependent variable in order to elaborate how far determinants of trade flows are identical or how far they differ. In the panel context, the results show that a change in total market size is an important aspect that leads both FDI and exports in the same direction. Only exports are significantly influenced by relative market size. Stock market booms boost FDI but not exports. Political indicators and exchange rate changes suggest that exports are demand-driven while FDI is supply-driven. Overall, FDI and exports tended to flow relatively less abundantly to distant countries than to nearby countries over the period under consideration. This supports the idea of a complementary relationship between investment and trade. However, this trend is reversed for exports within the EU25 area.     

Does WTO accession matter for the dynamics of foreign direct investment and trade?

The aim of this article is to study the impacts of World Trade Organization accession on the dynamics of foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade in Vietnam. In order to do this, we employ an augmented gravity model and use a panel data set covering bilateral trade and FDI between Vietnam and its 17 most important partner countries, over the period 1990–2008. Firstly, we find that WTO accession has a significantly positive effect both on Vietnam’s imports and on inward FDI. Secondly, even though we find no evidence to demonstrate convincingly that WTO accession influences Vietnam’s exports, this accession seems to indirectly encourage Vietnam’s exports through the FDI channel due to a strong connection between these two.     

影响中国电子行业出口决定因素的经验分析

本文利用中国电子工业子行业面板数据实证分析1999—2002年期间该行业出口的决定因素,特别是外商直接投资(FDI)的作用。我们发现FDI尤其是来自港澳台的FDI和规模经济对出口有正向作用。我们同时发现国有资本份额与出口负向相关,而资本密集度、研发和人力资本并不是影响中国电子行业出口的重要因素,表明中国的电子企业大多仍处于国际产品分工链的低端。本文有两个原创性贡献:第一是区分不同国别(地区)FDI对中国电子产品出口影响的差异,并发现港澳台地区资本较西方国家资本对中国电子产品出口影响更大;第二是发现劳动力成本水平因素影响FDI对出口作用程度的大小。这些结果具有重要的政策涵义。     

Foreign Capital,Spillovers and Export Performance in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Indian IT Firms

The role of foreign capital inflow, foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI), on export behavior of both recipients and non‐recipient competing firms in the same sector often guides economic development policy. By using panel data of Indian IT firms over 2000–2006, we show that FDI reduces the sunk costs of entering foreign markets and therefore positively effects both the decision to export and the export propensity of recipient firms. Foreign portfolio investment has no effect on the decision to export, but it does marginally increase the volume of exports. Further, these positive FDI and FPI recipient effects do not spill‐over to non‐recipients.     

What can Trigger the Resumption of Economic Growth in a Small Open Economy like Greece: Exports or Inward FDI?

The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of exports and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic development in Greece, in the long and short run, from 1980 to 2013. This study applies the Ng-Perron and DF-GLS unit root tests to determine the level of integration as well as the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to identify the long-run relationship. Our analysis confirms the long-run relationship between inward FDI, exports and national income. Our results imply that any policy by the Greek Government aimed at boosting economic development through exports will have to be considered for the long run since Greek authorities cannot rely on exports in the short run. However, inward FDI appears more efficient than exports as far as boosting economic progress in the short run.     

FDI对中国经济发展影响的实证分析与政策建议

FDI对中国经济发展的影响主要表现为:(1)外商投资企业劳动力的就业增量对于经济增长的负效应要小于其他类型企业的就业增量对经济增长的负效应;(2)FDI规模扩大对就业具有直接的创造效应,但对其他类型企业的就业具有一定的负面效应;(3)外商投资企业的出口与世界经济增长和我国的经济增长具有很强的相关性,但与FDI只有较弱的相关性;(4)FDI对于内资企业模仿和学习先进技术具有明显的溢出效应,但对内资企业自主创新能力的提高的溢出效应不大。     

Does the role of observer countries in the regional trade agreement matter for intra-regional trade ?

This article investigates the effects of trade by observed economies on the intra-regional trade by South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) members using Poison pseudo maximum likelihood estimator (PPML) gravity models with panel data over the period 2008–2014. Eight SAARC members and eight observed countries, including the EU, are analysed in capturing the trade effect of observed economies on intra-regional trade in SAARC. This article provides an empirical measure of observers’ trade, FDI and Official development assistance (ODA) with SAARC if the exports and imports of observers to/from SAARC have positive or negative signs for intra-regional exports and imports. The results show that the exports and imports of observers to SAARC members have positive effects on bilateral exports among the members. The FDI of observers reduces the bilateral intra-imports in SAARC and ODA also has a negative effect on bilateral exports among the members. These results imply that the imports by SAARC members from observer countries increase intra-regional trade in the region. The FDI and ODA increase and decrease intra-regional trade in SAARC, respectively, implying that the policies for both FDI inflow from observers and efficient aid management are needed to increase regional welfare. The study also recommends that trade between SAARC members and its observers help to increase intra-regional trade in SAARC.