住房价格、消费与中国货币政策最优选择:基于异质性房价预期的视角

在异质性房价预期和流动性约束条件下,本文构建了包括家庭消费决策、企业生产决策以及中央银行货币政策决策的理论模型。在此基础上,本文采用混合的RBC-VAR方法和1998年1季度至2010年3季度的数据模拟分析了住房价格、消费和货币政策选择之间的关系。结果表明:预期房价上涨的家庭越多,住房价格波动对消费波动的影响越大;贷款价值比越高,住房价格波动对消费波动的放大效应越强,但经验证据并没有支持这种放大效应;盯住住房价格的货币政策获益很少,其在减少产出波动的同时增加了通货膨胀波动。因此,中国人民银行应遏制房价偏离均衡的上涨,尤其是房价上涨预期,但货币政策不宜盯住住房价格。     

Valuing Aircraft Noise: Stated Choice Experiments Reflecting Inter-Temporal Noise Changes from Airport Relocation

The relocation of Athens Airport provided a rare experimental context in which residents experienced significant changes in noise levels due to the introduction or removal of aircraft noise. This paper reports the results from surveys around both airport locations, using stated choice experiments to estimate values for aircraft noise. The respondents were offered actual inter-temporal noise change scenarios rather than hypothetical variations, which is uncommon in the literature, incorporating the presence or absence of an airport and other relevant transport attributes that also changed with the airport relocation. Whilst there is some variation in the valuation of the airport closure and opening, when these values are adjusted to reflect the actual change in decibels, there is remarkably little difference between the old and new airports. However, a significant variation in aircraft noise values is identified between different areas, with respect to education and to a lesser extent income. Our preferred estimate of the monthly household willingness to pay for terminating aircraft noise exposure is 13.12€ and for avoiding the onset of aircraft noise is 9.53€.     

宏观共同因子、特质因子以及货币政策对中国各线城市房价的影响——基于FAVAR模型

运用FAVAR模型,将中国各线城市房价分离出宏观共同因子和特质因子部分,研究了各因子及货币政策对房价的影响。研究发现:大城市的房价更易受宏观共同因子和地区特质因子的影响,且变动的持续性更大;共同因子可在很大程度上解释房价变动的持续性和波动性;共同因子对房价的影响较为持久,而地区特质因子只在短期内影响房价;利率和货币供应量可以有效地影响房价;相比利率,货币供应量对一线和二线城市房价水平的影响更大,对各线城市房价波动的影响更为持久;一线城市的房价水平及其波动对货币政策冲击的敏感度较高,二线城市的敏感度居中,三线城市的敏感度较低;未发现货币政策的"价格之谜"现象,表明本文模型设定的合理性较强。     

中国货币政策对资产价格波动反应的模拟分析

利用包含汇率波动和通胀预期的IS-Philips模型推导考虑资产价格的货币政策反应函数。在此基础上,分别以股价和房价作为资产价格的代理变量,模拟分析了资产价格波动对中国经济的影响。研究结果表明:考虑资产价格的货币政策在平抑产出和物价波动方面具有显著作用,但会增大利率波动幅度;考虑房价波动的货币政策比考虑股价波动的货币政策在平抑产出和物价波动方面具有更好的效果;与考虑股价波动的货币政策相比,考虑房价波动的货币政策对利率的冲击更小。     

The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach

This paper assesses the impact of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa using a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), estimated using a large data set comprising of 246 quarterly series over the period 1980:01 to 2006:04. The results based on the impulse response functions indicate that, in general, house price inflation responds negatively to monetary policy shock, but the responses are heterogeneous across the middle-, luxury- and affordable-segments of the housing market. The luxury-, large-middle- and medium-middle-segments are found to respond much more than the small-middle- and the affordable-segments of the housing market. More importantly, we find no evidence of the home price puzzle, observed previously by other studies that analyzed house prices using small-scale models. We put this down to the benefit gained from using a large information set.     

Using a choice experiment to estimate the benefits of a reduction of externalities in urban areas with special focus on electrosmog

Traffic noise, air pollution and electromagnetic pollution (i.e. nonionizing radiation, also called electrosmog) are typical negative local externalities in urban areas. They are side effects of human and economic activities (e.g. road transport, telecommunication) and they affect individuals’ well being negatively without compensation. In recent years, the increased number of mobile phone antennas in residential areas, and thus the increased intensity of radiated power, has aroused public concern, discussions and protests. The view of an antenna is annoying an increasing number of inhabitants. In this article, the stated Choice Experiment (CE) is used to estimate the Willingness To Pay (WTP) residents in the cities of Zurich and Lugano place on the reduction of these three environmental loads. Estimation results reveal that there is a positive and significant WTP for a reduction of air pollution and traffic noise levels to those limit values fixed by the government. Respondents also show WTP for reducing electrosmog and removing mobile phone antennas from their view, however to a lesser extent. In addition, this is the first study that estimates the benefit of a reduction of electrosmog using a CE.     

外部性视角下空铁枢纽促进城市产业发展研究

全国多个城市将枢纽机场与轨道交通枢纽连接后进行产业布局,发挥空铁枢纽对城市经济外部性的作用。空铁枢纽是机场与高铁站联通而形成的综合交通枢纽,提升了交通出行效率,交通运输价值显著。空铁枢纽在促进城市产业发展过程中外部性显著,产业布局不断优化,产业结构更加合理,产业集聚持续增强,内部化的结果表现为人口集中、知识经济产业集聚、城市经济增长加速繁荣。基于上海虹桥案例研究发现,空铁枢纽在机场和高铁各自产业圈层的相互作用下形成了半径3.5公里的时空经济范围,通过合理的产业布局与虹桥商务区形成联动,进而形成港产城融合发展的成功经验。政府应积极进行产业布局和政策支持,合理定位城市能级,重视产业集群的产业链带动作用,促进空铁枢纽外部性的内部化成功。     

英文摘要

LI Cheng, LI Ke-jun, MA Wen-tao （School of Economics and Finance, Xi＇an Jiaotong University, Xi＇an 710061, China） Abstract： This paper applies the simulation method on the basis of Dynamic Stochastic G...     

Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model

This paper examines asymmetries in the impact of monetary policy on the middle segment of the South African housing market from 1966:M2 to 2011:M12. We use Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model in which parameters change according to the phase of the housing cycle. The results suggest that monetary policy is not neutral as house price growth decreases substantially with a contractionary monetary policy. We find that the impact of monetary policy is larger in bear regime than in bull regime; indicating the role of information asymmetry in reinforcing the financial constraint of economic agents. As expected, monetary policy reaction to a positive house price shock is found to be stronger in the bull regime. This suggests that the central bank reacts more in bull regime in order to prevent potential crisis related to the subsequent bust in house prices bubbles which are more prominent in bull markets. These results substantiate important asymmetries in the dynamics of house prices in relation to monetary policy, vindicating the advantages of generating regime dependent impulse response functions.     

Property Prices and Exposure to Multiple Noise Sources: Hedonic Regression with Road and Railway Noise

This study examines the effect of road and railway noise on property prices. It uses the hedonic regression technique on a Swedish data set that contains information about both road and railway noise for each property, and finds that road noise has a larger negative impact on the property prices than railway noise. This is in line with the evidence from the acoustical literature which has shown that individuals are more disturbed by road than railway noise, but contradicts recent results from a hedonic study on data of the United Kingdom.     

The hump-shaped behavior of inflation and a dynamic externality

We propose a general equilibrium model that explains the empirical evidence of the hump-shaped response of inflation to a monetary policy shock. The model replaces backward-looking indexation à la Christiano et al. [2005. Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effect of a shock to monetary policy. Journal of Political Economy 113(1), 1-45] with a dynamic externality into the production function of firms. The model, armed with sticky wages and variable capital utilization, has two offsetting effects on real marginal cost over the business cycle. First, increasing factor prices raise real marginal cost in response to an expansionary monetary policy shock in the intermediate run. Second, a dynamic externality reduces real marginal cost in the short run because it raises productivity in response to an increase in output following the shock. Overall, the resulting short-run decrease and intermediate-run increase in marginal cost replicate the hump-shaped behavior of inflation under purely forward-looking price and wage Phillips curves.     

金融冲击与房地产市场波动*——一个宏观分析框架及中国的经验证据

本文从总量宏观分析的视角,提出了金融变量与房地产市场的“总体冲击—传导机制”假说,据此用中国的数据构建金融状况指数（包含房价的FCI1和不包含房价的FCI2）,再对金融状况指数（FCI1和FCI2）与房地产指数做实证分析。研究发现,在资产价格中房价比股价更能反映一国的金融状况;在引入金融状况指数的金融变量中,利率与房价的相关性最强;房价和利率对总产出的影响周期更长。国房景气指数、房地产投资指数和房价指数对FCI冲击的响应显著,并存在不同的表现。由于房价对居民财富、金融状况和宏观经济的影响显著,货币政策理应干预房价,必须精准把握干预的时机和干预的力度以及注重多种货币政策工具的有效搭配使用。     

Sequential peak-load pricing: the case of airports and airlines

Abstract.  We investigate airport peak-load pricing using a vertical structure of airport and airlines. We find that a profit-maximizing airport would charge higher peak and off-peak runway prices and a higher peak/off-peak price differential than a public airport. Consequently, airport privatization would lead to both fewer total passengers and fewer passengers in the peak period. Although peak-travelling passengers benefit from fewer delays, this low level of peak congestion is not efficient, suggesting that airport privatization cannot be judged based on its effect on congestion alone. We also examine pricing behaviour of a public airport constrained to charge a time independent price.     

Profit Differences and Corporate Power: Some Empirical Surprises

Inflation targeting is currently the policy of choice for central banks. This policy invariably targets consumer price inflation, which is only one of many available price level indices (such as prices of new investments and house prices). As there is no stable relationship between these price levels, and as differences in developments between the different price levels might induce destabilizing behavior, there is no reason why “low and stable” consumer price inflation should guarantee monetary and financial stability. Following John Maynard Keynes, a “low and stable” increase of average nominal wages might do a better job. As price levels are designed to estimate the purchasing power of spending power and as income, and spending power are used to not just consume or invest but also to pay down many kinds of (gross) debt, it is advisable to use a joint definition of monetary and financial stability, which combines stable purchasing power of monetary income with a stable ability of households and companies to pay off debts.     

A Discriminatory Mechanism to Reduce Urban Congestion

In this article, we propose an optimal mechanism to reduce congestion when information is asymmetric. Each car driver receives a quantity of traffic rights such that his adjusted marginal benefit is equal to the marginal cost of congestion and payments are based on willingness to pay. We show that the level of congestion achieved is lower and each car user can receive more or fewer rights than under complete information. With symmetric beliefs, the payment rule results from a second‐degree price discrimination. When beliefs are asymmetric, it results simultaneously from a second‐degree price discrimination and from a third‐degree price discrimination and high willingness‐to‐pay car users are discriminated against. The revenue raised can be used to reduce distortionary taxes, thereby gaining public acceptability.     

HOUSE PRICES IN THE MEASUREMENT OF INFLATION IN THE EURO AREA

An important element of the current monetary policy debate in Europe is the question of if and how house prices should be included in the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). This paper uses a signal extraction approach to inflation measurement to illustrate the impact of including house prices when the aggregate inflation measure is constructed by assigning weights to individual price series based on their signal-to-noise ratio. The inclusion of house prices in the HICP in this manner does not materially impact the appropriate stance of monetary policy. ( JEL E31, E52, E58)     

Willingness to Pay for Car Safety: Evidence from Sweden

This study estimates a marginal willingness to pay (WTP) function for a road-mortality risk reduction. Observed marginal WTP from the Swedish car market is used and found to be positively correlated with the baseline risk of the cars. No statistically significant relationships between examined owner attributes, e.g. wealth and background risk, and marginal WTP are found. When comparing the estimated monetary value of a non-marginal risk reduction derived from the integral of the marginal WTP-function with an estimate based on marginal WTP we find, in line with expectations, that the difference between the estimates is negligible for smaller risk reductions and small, 4–10%, also for relatively large risk reductions.      

Looming stations: Valuing transport innovations in historical context

We investigate the impact of transport innovations on the productivity of urban locations in 1890–1936 Berlin, Germany. We find an increase in land value of up to 2.5% per 100 m decline in distance to urban railway station.     

Flooding risk and housing values: An economic assessment of environmental hazard

Climate change, the ‘boom and bust’ cycles of rivers, and altered water resource management practice have caused significant changes in the spatial distribution of the risk of flooding. Hedonic pricing studies, predominantly for the US, have assessed the spatial incidence of risk and the associated implicit price of flood risk. Using these implicit price estimates and their associated standard errors, we perform a meta-analysis and find that an increase in the probability of flood risk of 0.01 in a year is associated to a difference in transaction price of an otherwise similar house of - 0.6%. The actual occurrence of a flooding event or increased stringency in disclosure rules causes ex-ante prices to differ from ex-post prices, but these effects are small. The marginal willingness to pay for reduced risk exposure has increased over time, and it is slightly lower for areas with a higher per capita income. We show that obfuscating amenity effects and risk exposure associated with proximity to water causes systematic bias in the implicit price of flood risk.     

Future information systems for road transport: A Delphi panel-derived scenario

Modern information and microelectronic technology can be used to improve road traffic. The aim of this study is to create scenarios on how new information systems for improved road traffic can evolve. What are the driving forces? Who can act? Who can benefit? What are the social impacts?Through the use of a Delphi panel of professionals, researchers, and informed generalists, we have gathered impulses for the scenarios on how information technology, communication means, and control systems can reshape future road traffic. The issue studied is how this “Road Transport Informatics” (RTI) will evolve.