股权分置对中国资本市场实证研究的影响及模型修正

流通股和非流通股并存的特殊股权制度影响到中国上市公司股价和股数科学合理的确定,进而影响到几乎所有的中国股票市场实证研究结果。股权分置改革全部完成之后,涉及股改前数据的所有实证研究和数据库建设也都不能忽视改革前后的股数和股价的不可比问题。现有的基于股权分置的指标修正方法五花八门,也缺少合理的经济逻辑和数据支持。本文证明忽视股权分置现实,或者不适当的修正都将导致偏颇的结论,进而提出了一个通用的修正方法,即每股非流通股的价格相当于每股流通股的一个百分比。然后用实际数据对这个百分比的表达式进行了估计,从而对股权分置条件下价格模型与回报率模型进行了修正。结果显示,经过修正后的模型估计优于未修正的模型。在此基础上,我们研究了现在的全流通改革是否公平地补偿了流通股股东。结果显示,对于非流通股比率较小的公司,补偿是公平的,但对于非流通股比率较高的公司,还是存在着大的非流通股股东剥削流通股股东的现象。     

基于VaR的中国基金绩效评价

传统的基金绩效评估考虑了收益上下两个方向的波动,并不衡量真正可能的损失风险。经风险修正后的基金绩效评价方法——基于VaR的基金绩效评价方法,是运用了极端风险VaR作为风险修正对基金绩效进行评价的方法。通过此基金绩效评价方法和统计软件SPSS,对国内若干基金进行绩效评估与排名,并将结果与传统评价方法的结果进行对比和分析,说明运用基于VaR的基金绩效评价方法能更准确反映基金的绩效。     

不同估计模型最优套期保值比率绩效研究

本文主要介绍了在最小方差思想下最优套期保值比率的估算方法,分别用OLS、双变量自回归模型、误差修正模型,以及ECM—GARCH模型4种方法对最优套期保值比率进行了估计。结果显示,由于数据没有集群效应,故ECM-GARCH模型不合适,在前3个模型中用误差修正模型得到的套期保值效果最好。     

不同估计模型最优套期保值比率绩效研究

本文主要介绍了在最小方差思想下最优套期保值比率的估算方法,分别用OLS、双变量自回归模型、误差修正模型,以及ECM-GARCH模型4种方法对最优套期保值比率进行了估计.结果显示,由于数据没有集群效应,故ECM-GARCH模型不合适,在前3个模型中用误差修正模型得到的套期保值效果最好.     

重置成本报表初探

长期以来 ,人们对会计信息的记录、分类、加工、整理及输出都是以物价稳定、币值不变为前提的 ,大幅度的物价变动 ,使这种历史成本会计模式提供的会计信息严重背离了它所反映的经济业务的实际情况 ,使会计信息失真。文章指出 ,重置成本报表是对现有会计报表进行修正的一种方法。     

基于动态房价收入比的住房支付能力分析

不同的收入群体具有不同的住房消费需求和消费能力.国际通用的房价收入比一般从静态上衡量居民购房支付能力,而忽略从动态上评价居民的实际购房支付能力.本文用上海市的实际数据对房价收入比进行修正,计算出的结果比较真实地反映出不同支付能力群体的不同的住房需求和支付能力,为房地产开发和政府制定差别化的住房政策提供依据.     

浅谈财务分析指标的修正

财务分析是会计工作的重要内容,比率指标作为分析的介质,其内涵的准确性、完整性与否,决定了分析的质量,划通过修正比率指标使其内容更加完整、内涵更加明确,有利于霍财务分析的不断完善。     

论我国会计信息失真的成因及其对策

会计信息失真越来越成为社会关注的焦点,会计核算应以实际发生的交易或事项为依据,如果会计信息不能客观真实地反映企业生产经营的实际情况,会计工作就失去了存在的意义,甚至会误导会计信息使用者,导致决策的失误。     

冷却封严系统设计

文章通过对燃气轮机冷却封严设计的研究，采用旋转修正方法，使封严设计更接近燃气轮机实际工作状态，为燃气轮机封严设计从理论到实际应用提供了解决思路，使理论研究更好的应用与工程实践。     

国有企业家人力资本价值测度:一个修正模型

现代企业理论和人力资本理论从不同的角度,为企业家以其人力资本分享企业剩余索取权提供了理论依据。文章在企业家人力资本可以分享企业剩余索取权思想的基础上,通过财务指标指数和用非财务指标指数模糊测算出的国有企业企业家人力资本价值的发挥程度确定综合评价乘数,构建了修正的期权综合定价模型,试图解决国有企业企业家人力资本实际价值的评估问题。     

减税能否提高企业生产效率?——基于西部大开发准自然实验的研究

降低实体经济企业成本,提高其经济效率,是我国供给侧改革的核心内容,而减税政策是重中之重.文章以西部大开发作为准自然实验,基于1998-2007年工业企业微观数据,使用双重差分法研究了减税对实体经济的影响.研究发现,减税政策能够刺激实体经济发展,名义税率每下降1%,企业生产效率平均提高0.38%-0.75%.减税对企业生产效率的影响既有直接效应也存在间接效应.直接效应表现为减税有利于存续企业生产效率的提升,间接效应则表现为减税可以刺激更多的创业活动,而新进入企业比存续企业具有更高的生产效率.异质性检验表明,小企业比大企业对于减税政策更加敏感,而且减税对生产效率的影响随着时间推移先增加后减小,存在长期收敛效应.文章为我国减税政策如何影响企业生产效率提供了经验证据,对于今后税收政策的制定具有重要的理论与实践意义.     

从企业集团的边界看中央企业集团整体上市

本文在研究企业集团边界的基础上,分析了中央企业集团整体上市的利弊得失。企业集团作为一种企业间组织形式,在某些情况下比一个独立大企业节约组织成本．比若干独立企业节约交易成本．是若干企业通过特定的联结而形成的一种有效率的企业问组织形式。从企业集团边界角度．中央企业集团采取母公司或主营业务的整体上市不一定有利于其实现效率,也不是从根本上解决国内企业集团治理中的大股东侵犯债权人或中小股东利益问题的最佳策略。完善中央企业集团治理重在产权制度改革和从根本上改善公司治理的法律制度。     

基于DEA的安徽省科技企业孵化器运行效率研究

采用数据包络分析中的BCC模型,实证分析了安徽省38家科技企业孵化器的运行效率,依据综合效率值将其分为有效、无效两类。结果显示,安徽大部分科技企业孵化器都处于无效状态。为进一步分析孵化器运行效率的差异及其产生的原因,根据纯技术效率均值和规模效率均值,再将其细分为相对高效型、配置低效型、规模低效型和完全无效型四类,并对综合效率值为1的科技企业孵化器进行超效率分析。最后,通过计算各资源投入的影子价格均值,为孵化器优化资源组合提供方向性引导。     

The Role of Productivity and Financial Frictions in the Business Cycles of a Small Open Economy: Hong Kong 1984–2011

This paper analyzes the business cycle properties of the Hong Kong economy during the 1984–2011 period, which includes the financial crisis experienced in 1997/98 and the economic crisis of 2008–2010. We show that the volatility respectively, of output, of the growth rate of output and of real interest rates in Hong Kong are higher than the corresponding average volatility among developed economies. Furthermore, interest rates are countercyclical. We build a stochastic neoclassical small open‐economy model estimated with a Bayesian likelihood approach that seeks to replicate the main business cycle characteristics of Hong Kong, and through which we try to quantify the role played by exogenous total factor productivity (TFP) shocks (transitory and permanent), real interest rate shocks and financial frictions. The main finding is that financial frictions, jointly with the assumption that the country spread is endogenous, seem important in explaining the countercyclicality of the real interest rates.     

Capacity constraints, asymmetries, and the business cycle

We study how an occasionally binding capacity constraint affects the properties of business cycles. A real business cycle model is constructed where production takes place at individual plants and the number of plants operated varies over the cycle. The capacity constraint binds in states where all plants are operated. We derive the aggregate production function for this economy, which turns out to differ from the standard Cobb–Douglas function while retaining its desirable properties. The business cycle features of this one-sector growth model are similar to those of a standard real business cycle model in most respects. Our model does, however, display some properties of actual economies that standard models do not. In particular, business cycles in our model are asymmetric—troughs are deeper on average than peaks are tall. Also, labor's share of income is counter-cyclical, as it is in US data.     

Detrending methods and stylized facts of business cycles in Norway – an international comparison

This paper analyses the stylized facts of business cycles in Norway, by comparing different detrending methods. As the choice of the appropriate data transformation depends on the nature of the underlying dynamic properties of the time series, a set of unit root tests are first applied to the data. The detrended data are analysed, both in the time domain and the frequency domain. The evidence suggests that whereas some variables (e.g. consumption and investment) behave consistently procyclically with GDP, for other variables (e.g. real wage and prices), the business cycle properties vary considerably with the detrending methods used. The results are evaluated from a real business cycle perspective, but overall, there is little evidence to support a (supply driven) real business cycle. Symmetries in business cycles are finally analysed by comparing the business cycles in Norway and selected countries. First version received: April 1997 / Final version received: November 1999     

试论保护企业商业秘密的措施

商业秘密是企业知识产权的重要组成部分,是企业重要的无形资产,对增强企业的市场竞争能力和企业的生存与发展具有重大影响。企业必须采取有效措施,切实加强商业秘密的保护和管理。我们应该切实做到该保密的信息能够保住,可以交流信息的还应该要交流,使商业秘密的保护工作和信息交流工作更好地协调,以适应建立社会主义市场经济体制和高新技术迅猛发展新形势的需要,为保持企业在市场中竞争优势作出努力。     

What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Nordic Countries

The model derived in this paper yields testable implications concerning the long‐run co‐movements of real exchange rates, relative labor productivity, the trade balance and terms of trade. Countries with relatively higher output growth, trade deficits or improved terms of trade are found to have more appreciated real exchange rates, with the main channel of transmission working through the relative price of nontraded goods. Exogenous terms‐of‐trade shocks are found to be the most important determinant of long‐run movements in the real exchange rate for Denmark and Norway, while demand shocks account for most of the long‐run variance in the real exchange rate for Finland and Sweden.     

Are business cycles stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend? Empirical evidence from 79 developing countries

There is a large literature that tests the univariate time series properties of the real output series following the seminal work of Nelson and Plosser (1982). Whether or not real output is characterized by a unit root process has important implications. A unit root in real output, for instance, is inconsistent with the notion that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In this paper, we investigate the univariate time series properties of real output for 79 developing countries using the conventional augmented Dickey and Fuller (1979) unit root test, the Zivot and Andrews’ (1992) one structural break unit root test, and the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) two structural breaks unit root test. Our main finding is that, for 40 countries, real output is stationary around a trend. This indicates that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend for only 51% of the developing countries in our sample.     

Austrian business cycle theory: Empirical evidence

The Austrian approach to business cycles has been seldom examined in econometric terms. This paper first reviews the essentials of that approach and the recent application of the Austrian business cycle theory in the economics literature. Quarterly data for Germany, USA, England and France, 1980:1 through 2006:1, are used to explore business cycle facts and relations between terms structure of interest rates, relative prices, composition of aggregate expenditure and real GDP. Results are consistent with the hypothesis of the Austrian business cycle theory that monetary policy shocks explain cycles. The changes in term structure of interest rates and composition of aggregate expenditure are large enough to explain changes in aggregate economic activity.