面向网购的低碳供应链的序参量识别模型及其应用

为了识别面向网购的低碳供应链系统的关键控制因素——序参量,从低碳和网购的角度构建其体系结构,并对其进行利益相关者分析,在此基础上,提出了影响该供应链系统演化的备选序参量,并对它们之间的关系进行了探析。接着,在总结传统的序参量识别方法不足的基础上,提出了基于集对分析法的序参量识别模型并进行了应用,得出面向网购的低碳供应链系统的序参量为低碳协同机制、网购者的低碳意识和低碳激励机制。     

碳信息披露水平、股权融资成本与企业价值

近年来,全球变暖问题日益突出,世界各国纷纷倡导低碳经济加以应对.企业碳信息披露也逐渐受到社会的广泛关注.选择2010—2018年沪深A股上市工业企业为样本,实证分析了碳信息披露水平与企业长短期价值的关系及股权融资成本的中介作用.研究发现企业提高碳信息披露水平不能显著提升企业短期价值,但可以显著提升其长期价值,这也间接说明碳信息披露对企业价值的提升不具有立竿见影的效果,是经过厚积而显现的.另外,企业提高碳信息披露水平可以通过降低股权融资成本来提升企业的长期价值,从而证明了股权融资成本的部分中介作用.本文的研究在提高企业碳信息披露的积极性,推动我国低碳发展方面具有一定的现实意义.     

低碳时代的碳成本及其管理研究

在低碳经济时代,碳排放量作为重要的成本要素纳入企业核算体系,进而成为企业战略决策中要考虑的重要因素。文章基于低碳经济背景,探讨了碳成本含义及碳成本管理的重要内容,说明低碳时代的战略成本管理不同于传统工业社会的成本管理,有效的碳成本管理可以提高企业在低碳经济时代的竞争优势、调整企业发展路径、推动企业的可持续发展。     

基于可持续发展理念的电商时代网购包装设计设想

电商改变了我们的生活方式,网购包装将形成新的产业趋势,但是网购包装产生的耗材、低能、黑色污染等等问题严重影响了我们生存的环境,网购包装要发展为健康产业,必须创新网购包装的设计理念。文章基于可持续发展理念对电商网购包装设计进行了新设想,即为了避免黑色污染和过度耗材,根据电商运输交易的特点对网购包装进行一体化的设计;为了降低消耗和提升效率,网购包装材料的选择既要满足网购包装的功能需要,还要能够承载信息的传递;为了减少浪费和高效管理,网购包装的形态设计更加注重包装结构与信息的灵活性,更加强调造型模数化后的通用性。     

“双碳”目标下供应链减排合作服务平台经济发展研究

基于中国A股上市平台企业2010—2020年数据，采用爬虫文本分析技术测度企业与供应链成员的减排合作水平，实证检验其带来的经济效益。研究发现：开展供应链减排合作能够对平台企业价值创造产生促进作用；当企业所在地区是低碳试点城市时，这种正向影响更为显著。此外，供应链减排合作可以通过提高企业的碳信息披露水平、增加绿色研发投入带来价值提升，进而促进平台经济高质量发展。进一步，供应链减排合作带来的效益可以沿供应链溢出到平台企业的主要供应商和客户，促进多方价值创造，实现平台企业价值引领与繁荣经济。为引导平台企业实现供应链低碳转型，促进平台经济健康发展，应完善平台企业供应链减排合作内外部制度环境；积极推进碳信息披露改革，将供应链减排合作纳入ESG披露体系；促进平台企业加大绿色研发投入，带动地区及周边经济高质量发展。     

消费者低碳意识和政府碳税下低碳技术选择

在已有的低碳技术选择研究中,主要讨论碳税等调控策略对技术选择的影响,均未考虑消费者低碳意识对低碳技术选择的影响。首次在考虑消费者低碳意识和政府碳税的情况下,研究制造商的低碳技术选择问题,比较在消费者有无低碳意识两种市场条件下制造商的最优决策差异。通过数值仿真,分析了消费者低碳意识、政府碳税对制造商盈利及其低碳技术选择的影响。结果表明,当消费者低碳意识较强时,采用低碳技术比不采用对制造商更有利;随着政府碳税水平的逐步提高,制造商对于低碳技术将经历一个由不采用到采用又到不采用的过程。     

大学生对网络购物的状况分析与预测

根据中国互联网络信息中心(CNNIC)发布<2008年中国网络购物调查研究报告>显示2008年上半年网络购物金额达到162亿元人民币.网络购物的潮流让我们突发奇想,于是我们参与了学校组织的科技创新项目调查研究活动,并确定调查项目为<大学生网络购物调查研究项目>.本文通过运用多种统计方法从"网购总体的现状"、"网购商品与日常购物的比例情况"、"网购商品类型"、"网购付款方式"、"网购的有点及缺点情况"、"网络购物发展趋势的分析与预测"6方面进行了整理与分析,了解到我们附近大学生的网络购物现状,推测出大学生市场网购趋势.     

基于收益共享和成本共担的供应链双向激励协调

在供应商和销售商组成的二级供应链中,供应商隐藏关于生产成本的私人信息,销售商隐藏关于销售努力的行动,且双方地位相当,此时协调主体不明确。为了解决该问题,文章引入虚拟第三方为利他的委托人,站在供应链整体利润最大化的角度,设计基于收益共享和成本共担的协调契约,对供应商和销售商实施双向激励。研究结果表明:当收益共享比例和成本共担比例满足一定条件时,供应链实现了协调。此时,该契约调动了供应商降低生产成本、销售商提高努力水平的积极性,合作双方达到了"双赢"。笔者通过数值实验对结果进行了验证,表明了结果的有效性。     

基于supply-hub的供应链超网络物流信息平台构建

基于supply-hub运作模式,构建低成本、高服务水平的物流配送网络是企业增强市场竞争能力的有效手段,其所构建的供应链网络属于超网络范畴,文章结合"云计算"技术的应用,对基于supplyhub的供应链超网络构建物流信息平台,考虑现实需求,建立在超网络模型上的信息传播方式。     

物流产业的生态化整合路径与演化

随着低碳理念的深入,产业的生态化发展将成为趋势。文章试图用生态学的价值观念和方法,遵循生态系统的形成和演化规律,探讨物流产业生态化整合的路径及其演化的阶段性特征。文章提出了物流产业生态系统的概念,并指出可以通过构建物流产业生态系统、第四方物流驱动第三方物流集群、大力发展绿色物流、供应链协同运作等途径进行物流产业的生态化整合;按照生态系统生命周期不同阶段的特点,分初始、增长、成熟、衰退四阶段,对整合路径的演化进行相应管理。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.