The effect of remittances on the current account in developing and emerging economies

This paper presents an analysis of the effect of remittances on the current account in developing and emerging economies, incorporating an assessment of the extent to which exchange rate regimes impact the relationship. The main findings suggest that there is a positive effect of remittances on the current account contemporaneously, but that the lagged effect is negative, which could be indicative of the existence of some underlying mechanisms characteristic of the Dutch disease phenomenon. In addition, the results show that a more flexible exchange regime dampens the contemporaneous positive effect that remittances have on the current account. The paper, therefore, asserts that policymakers face trade‐offs pertaining to the use of exchange rate policy in managing the effects of remittances on the current account, which should be given due consideration when such policy choices are made.     

Revisiting the threshold effect of remittances on total factor productivity growth in South Asia: a study of Bangladesh and India

Both Bangladesh and India are among the top recipient of remittances in absolute terms. However, in relative terms – remittances as a per cent of GDP – the two countries stand at 6.1% and 2.8%, respectively, well below the levels of the top 10 recipients. In this article, we explore the effect of remittances on the total factor productivity (TFP) growth considering Bangladesh and India, as reference countries over the periods 1980–2012 and 1977–2012, respectively. We examine the presence of a long-run association between remittances and TFP using a number of tests. The results indicate that remittances have threshold effects on TFP growth in both countries. Despite the two countries receiving substantial amount of remittances, we note that Bangladesh has a U-shaped relationship whereas India has an inverted U-shaped relationship with TFP growth. For Bangladesh, a minimum threshold of remittances (% GDP) is 5.3% and for India, a tipping point of remittances (% GDP) is at 1.8%. The causality tests confirm a bidirectional effect, which implies that remittances and TFP growth are mutually reinforcing. Interestingly, while the two economies have similar remittances impact in regards to causality, the study highlights two different tipping points of remittances.     

The influence of remittances on education and health outcomes: a cross country study

We study the effect of international remittances on aggregate educational and health outcomes using a sample of 69 low- and middle-income countries. We find that remittances play an important role in improving primary and secondary school attainment, increasing life expectancy and reducing infant mortality. Our results suggest that as migration laws continue to support greater emigration and remittances, policies should be enacted to facilitate the flow of remittances as they represent a significant source for economic development.     

Emigrants' remittances and Dutch Disease in Cape Verde

Abstract

Emigrants' remittances have increased rapidly over the past two decades. While earlier studies have focused on their microeconomic effect on incomes and poverty in recipient countries, the present study concentrates on the macroeconomic impact of remittances on the real exchange rate in Cape Verde. A main conclusion is that remittances give rise to a sort of Dutch Disease effect and thereby have an adverse effect on the competitiveness of the tradable sector. The magnitude of this effect in Cape Verde is not that large, however. The changing orientation of official aid to more growth-oriented aid, combined with a more export-oriented domestic policy, has contributed to limiting the adverse impact of emigrants' remittances on the competitiveness of the Cape Verdean economy.     

International migration,remittances, and schooling: evidence from El Salvador

We examine the effect of remittances from abroad on households' schooling decisions using data for El Salvador. Following the massive war-related emigration of the 1980s, remittances became a significant source of household income throughout the 1990s. We use the Cox proportional hazard model to examine the determinants of school attendance. Measuring income from a source that is uncorrelated with parental schooling—remittances—, we find that remittances have a large, significant effect on school retention. We estimate that while household income net of remittances has a small, though significant, impact on the hazard of leaving school in rural and urban areas, remittances have a much larger impact on the hazard of leaving school. In urban areas, the effect of remittances is, at its smallest, 10 times the size of the effect of other income. In rural areas, the effect of remittances is about 2.6 times that of other income. Our finding is of interest in that it suggests that subsidizing school attendance, particularly in poor areas, may have a large impact on school attendance and retention, even if parents have low levels of schooling.     

Revisiting the Effects of Remittances on Bank Credit: A Macro Perspective

We investigate the effect of remittances on bank credit in developing countries. Understanding this link is important in view of the growing relevance of remittances as a source of external finance and of the beneficial impact that financial intermediation is likely to have on economic growth. Our contribution is twofold. First, we present a theoretical model of bank credit in a hypothetical remittances‐receiving country where: (1) the banking sector is imperfectly competitive; and (2) bank rates change infrequently because of the presence of adjustment costs. We show that in equilibrium, the relationship between remittances and bank‐credit is likely to be non‐linear. Second, we look at the evidence using a panel data set for a large group of developing and emerging economies over the period 1970–2009. We find that at initially low levels of remittances, an increase in remittances reduces the volume of credit extended by banks. However, at sufficiently high levels of remittances, the effect becomes positive. The turning point of the relationship occurs at a level of remittances of about 2.5% of GDP, which would imply that approximately 50% of our sample lies to each side of this threshold.     

The Impact of Migrant Remittances on Economic Growth: Evidence from South Asia

Incorporating migrant remittances among other variables into a growth model, and employing panel data over the 1970–2008 period, this study investigates the impact of migrant remittances on economic growth in South Asia. Migrant remittances are found to have a significant positive effect on economic growth. A significant positive interactive effect of remittances on economic growth is detected through education and financial sector development.     

Migrants’ international transfers and educational expenditure

The primary objective of this article is to cast some light upon the relationship between education expenditure and the volume of remittances sent to Albania from abroad by international migrants. To assess the existence of an education enhancing effect of remittances, an Engel curve framework is used. In addition, quintile regression analysis is employed to investigate whether migrants’ remittances have a differentiated effect on various quantiles of the conditional distribution of education consumption. The two main empirical findings are that household income has a positive and well‐determined impact on education expenditure, whereas international transfers do not influence education spending.     

Exchange Rate Flexibility and the Effect of Remittances on Economic Growth

This paper studies the question of whether exchange rate policy affects the impact of remittances on economic growth in recipient countries. The findings indicate that more flexible exchange rate regimes are associated with a greater increase in economic growth following an increase in remittances, but also that the impact of remittances on growth is positive under a fixed regime. The results further show that the effect of remittances under a fixed exchange rate regime is positive in less financially developed countries as well, but do not provide conclusive evidence that this effect varies inversely with exchange rate flexibility in such economies as theorized; the results being sensitive to the choice of financial development indicator.     

Remittances flow and financial development in Bangladesh

Workers' remittance is a major source of foreign exchange earnings and plays an important role in the economy of Bangladesh. It accounts for 12% of GDP in 2010. This paper examines with annual data for 1971–2008, whether the flow of remittances is contributing positively to the development of the financial system of the country. Our results suggest that remittances have a significant positive effect on financial development. However, financial sector's development is neutral in its effect on the inflow of remittances.     

The effects of international remittances on expenditure patterns of the left‐behind households in Sub‐Saharan Africa

This article explores the effects of international remittances on the expenditure patterns of households in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). This article focuses on five countries in SSA, which are some of the destinations that account for the highest receipt of international remittances. We analyze both aggregate and distributional effects of international remittances on expenditure patterns of households. To investigate the distributional effect of international remittances, we adopt the instrumental variable quantile (IV‐quantile) regression framework that allows us to simultaneously address the endogeneity of international remittances and possible heterogeneity in the impact of international remittances on households’ expenditure patterns. We instrument for international remittances by using the economic conditions in migrants’ countries as an instrument for international remittances. Our results show that the receipt of international remittances increases expenditures on food, durables, education, and health. Using the IV‐quantile regression, we find the effects of international remittances on household expenditure on food, durables, education, and health increase across the different expenditure quantiles.     

Workers’ remittances and government size

In this paper I use a panel of 133 developing countries for the period 1972 to 2012 to estimate the effect of workers’ remittances on the size of government. Controlling for country and period fixed effects that jointly affect workers’ remittances and government size, the paper finds that workers’ remittances are associated with larger government. The paper further examines whether democratic institutions mediate the relationship between workers’ remittances and government size. Democratic institutions do not significantly mediate the effect that workers’ remittances have on the size of government.     

Remittances and labour allocation decisions at communities of origin: the case of rural Mexico

From a theoretical perspective, the effect that remittances have on the labour decisions of those that receive them is ambiguous; the empirical evidence reported in the literature is mixed and shows, unsurprisingly, that the net effect of remittances on labour supply is context-dependent. We contribute to this literature by using a detailed data set for rural Mexico that allows us to understand how remittances reshape rural livelihoods by modifying labour allocation decisions. Following previous evidence, we analyse female and male responses separately. Our results show that the income effect of remittances dominates male labour allocation decisions: the probability of participating in the labour market and the total number of hours worked decrease with remittances. We find no effect for female labour allocation decisions. The effects are not uniform across the different productive activities and remittances seem to be contributing to a trend in which Mexican rural inhabitants increasingly move away from agriculture- or nature-based activities. This reinforces the direct effect that emigration has in terms of a reduction in total supply of local labour.     

Remittances and output in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration

Although the relationship between remittances and output is still inconclusive in literature, most studies find that remittances have a positive effect on output in the long run. Contrary to this conventional direction of causality from remittances to output, our study finds that output alone determined long-run movements in remittances in a positive direction in the Bangladesh economy over the last 35 years from 1976 to 2010. We use the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration to explore this long-run relationship. Surprisingly, remittances do not appear to be a long-run forcing variable to the explanation of Bangladesh’s output over the same period. While examining the channels of this output–remittance mechanism remains an area of research for the future, we hypothesize that the rise in remittances in response to increased income occurs through higher import demand and greater investment opportunities. This finding implies that Bangladeshi policymakers can influence remittances through national output in the long run.     

The relationship between remittances and macroeconomic variables in times of political and social upheaval: Evidence from Tunisia's Arab Spring

If Tunisia is hailed as a success story with its high rankings on economic, educational, and other indicators relative to other Arab countries, the popular 2011 uprisings underscored the fragility of its main economic pillars, including those of tourism and foreign direct investment. This paper examines the economic impact of migrants’ remittances, which are expected to exhibit relatively countercyclical behaviour during periods of intense upheaval. This study is novel in its methodological approach, which is used to pinpoint the dynamic effects of remittances on key macroeconomic variables within an unstable framework. The analysis reveals that the effect of remittances on Tunisia's economy has varied over time. Prior to the Arab Spring, remittances had a short‐term negative influence on economic growth, varying effects on domestic investment and positive impacts on consumption. In considering the post‐Arab uprisings, positive and strong impacts of remittances on growth and consumption are found in the long run while negative and moderate investment effects of remittances are shown over the short and medium term.     

The effect of remittances on democratic institutions

Do remittances promote stronger democratic institutions in developing countries? We study the effect of workers’ remittances on the quality of democracy in developing countries, and examine how government spending mediates the effect of workers’ remittances on the quality of democratic institutions. Using a dynamic panel estimator on data from 133 developing countries over 1972–2012, we find that workers’ remittances improve the quality of democratic institutions. We also find that workers’ remittances are more effective in promoting democratic institutions in developing countries with low government spending.     

Remittances and deforestation in developing countries: Is institutional quality paramount?

This study examines the impact of remittance inflows on deforestation in developing countries. We also investigate the role of institutional quality in enhancing remittances’ effect in reducing deforestation. Our results suggest that overall remittances reduce deforestation. We show that remittances’ reduction effect on deforestation is greater in middle-income countries than in low-income countries. Considering institutional quality, our findings suggest that, for the entire sample, and in low- and middle-income countries, control of corruption, political stability, government effectiveness and rule of law act to reduce deforestation. Moreover, institutional quality enhances the impact of remittances on reducing deforestation in the entire sample and in middle-income countries. In contrast, in low-income countries, institutional quality does not complement remittances to reduce deforestation.These results imply that, to reduce deforestation rates, the focus should not only be on economic development, but to an even greater extent, on institutional quality.     

The effects of remittances on support for democracy in Africa: Are remittances a curse or a blessing?

We examine the effect of remittances on the legitimacy of democracy in Africa, testing whether remittance recipients are less likely to support democracy than non-recipients. We hypothesize that the effect of remittances on support for democracy varies across classes (i.e., groups or subtypes) of individuals sharing similar but unobserved background characteristics. Using the Afrobarometer surveys, we try to find out whether the respondents fall into different hidden classes in such a way that the effect of remittances on the degree of support for democracy depends on the class. Our results support that remittances may be a curse for the degree of endorsement and support for democracy, depending on the class of individuals that we consider. The analysis of the probability of being in the remittance curse class indicates that the perception of national priorities plays an important role. People who attest that freedom and rights are the main national priorities have a lower probability of belonging to the remittances curse class than individuals who choose national priorities that are oriented towards the economic conditions of their country.     

Workers’ remittances and the Dutch disease in South Asian countries

Workers’ remittances have become an important source of foreign exchange for some emerging economies even when compared to official development assistance, foreign direct investment or other types of capital flows. While some research suggests that a high inflow of remittances lowers poverty and stimulates economic growth and financial development, other studies suggest that remittances can appreciate the real exchange rate and thereby hurt the competitiveness of the tradeable sector. In this article, we examine the Dutch disease argument for Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using a fixed effects model. We are unable to reject the null that there is a statistically significant appreciating effect of remittances on real exchange rate. Since our estimation results show that trade openness causes a depreciation of the real exchange rate, the appreciation effect of the real exchange rate originating from remittance inflows can be made weaker by trade liberalization.     

Impact of remittances on household health care expenditure: Evidence from the Nepal Living Standards Survey

This paper examines the effect of remittance inflows on health care expenditure in Nepal using the Nepal Living Standards Survey 2010–2011. Using the recursive three‐stage least square regression method, the propensity score matching method, and the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition method, we find a positive and significant effect of remittances on health care expenditure. In particular, our analysis shows a 0.099% increase in health care expenditure for every 1% increase in overall remittances. This effect increases to 0.189% for earned remittances (remittances received from a household member). We also find that remittance‐receiving households with at least one migrant family member have different health care spending behavior than those with no migrant members.