服务型专业村的形成及其影响因素研究——以河南省王公庄为例

服务型专业村对传统农区产业结构调整、农村经济的发展具有重要推动作用。以河南省画虎专业村王公庄为例,阐述欠发达农区服务型专业村的形成、影响环境及其演化机理。研究发现:1在专业村形成的不同阶段,其廊道不断变化,由血缘、地缘关系路径逐渐向业缘关系转变;2绘画行业规模的扩大主要发生在专业村形成的后期阶段,即扩散机制的二、三阶段,且学员来源在空间上不连续,呈跳跃式扩散,空间跨越尺度较大,不同于特色种植型专业村多邻近扩散的形成规律;3绘画产品销售市场逐渐趋于稳定,销售途径向多元化方向发展;4王公庄绘画产业专业村形成的影响因素是村内部因素和村外部因素综合作用的结果。模仿创新、网络联系、规模经济、分工经济是服务型专业村发展演化的内在作用机理。     

企业家行为与专业村形成及演变的关系研究——以江苏省宿迁市红庙板材加工专业村为例

专业村是基于规模经济和分工经济,由农户企业从事相同或相关联的经济活动而形成。利用宿迁市红庙板材加工专业村农户企业调查数据,分析了专业村形成与演变的过程,探索企业家行为与专业村的形成速度、经济效益、产业内分工以及企业未来走向之间的关系。分析发现:(1)红庙村在20年内实现了企业数量快速增加、生产与交易空间的集中、产业内分工不断深化。(2)能人与村干部的带领、相关产业的从业背景以及获得信贷等因素影响专业村的形成速度。(3)企业家的社会关系、村干部和亲友的支持有助于提升专业村的经济效益。(4)随着专业村产业内分工的深化,村外联系的影响作用超越了村内联系。(5)企业家的外界联系、经营履历及企业现状发展情况对专业村的未来走向影响密切。     

专业村形成历程及影响因素研究——以豫西南3个专业村为例

专业村发展对于大范围提高农户收入具有重要作用。通过对豫西南3个样本专业村121户专业农户的调查分析,发现专业村是在利用当地资源的基础上,在能人的带动下逐渐发展形成的,其发展历程服从"S"型曲线创新传播规律。其中,资源等地理环境因素起基础作用,初期接受者或能人在发展过程中起核心作用,政府行为可加快其发展过程,农户尤其是家庭中的"顶梁柱"的财商对农户专业项目的发展及其时间早晚具有重要影响,多数农户对专业项目的接受是通过模仿方式实现的。在农区发展中,可将建设专业村作为重要途径。     

经济地理学的微观研究

沿公司地理、农户地理和小尺度研究三个层面探索了中国经济地理学的微观研究。公司地理研究的主要内容包括公司增长空间轨迹、公司空间结构、公司与环境关系等方面;农户地理研究的主要内容包括农户自主发展能力研究、农户经济活动区位研究、农户发展环境研究、农户与地理环境相互关系研究;小尺度研究的主要内容包括从地块角度研究人地系统、专业村与环境关系以及从点位角度构建区域可持续发展模型。经济地理学的微观研究有利于抓住经济地理现象形成的基本单元和组成结构,探索地理过程以及揭示地理现象的形成机理。沿着上述三个层面进行深入探究,可望在中国特殊背景下的微观经济空间理论发展上有所建树。     

贫困的形成机理:一个分析框架的探讨

贫困的形成机理是一个复杂、动态的过程.目前,关于贫困形成机理的研究还没形成完整的理论体系.本文首先回顾贫困形成机理的理论研究现状,指出当前研究的不足.然后本文结合中国反贫困的实践经验,提出一个贫困形成机理的分析框架,分析贫困的各致贫因素:经济因素、个体因素、社会因素、地理环境因素、脆弱性因素、制度因素和文化因素,以及它们的内在逻辑联系.最后本文做出了总结.     

西部大开发中地理标志畜肉产品的消费行为分析

西部省区草地资源丰富,发展地理标志畜肉产品条件得天独厚.文章选取西部省区地理标志畜肉产品主要代表之一的“盐池滩羊肉”作为研究对象,通过对“盐池滩羊肉”主要销售地、消费地区内消费者的实地问卷访查,文章归纳并选取了决定地理标志畜肉产品消费者选购意愿五个层面10项主导因素进行辨识,应用解释结构模型对消费者选购意愿主导层面与因素间的传导关系进行了系统划分与实证分析,研究表明,产品特征层面、厂商实力与声誉层面、产品宣传层面是决定消费者选购意愿的基本因素,价格因素层面和消费者评价层面是决定消费者选购意愿的直接因素.其中,产品特征层面直接决定消费者评价层面,但对价格因素层面影响较弱,价格因素层面内两价格因素相互影响.厂商实力与声誉层面、产品宣传层面直接影响了消费者评价层面除选购习惯因素以外的其他因素,并在一定程度上造成了地理标志畜肉产品价格波动.     

基于生态种群理论的产业地理集中实现条件研究

产业市场集中与地理集中是从不同角度来研究产业集中问题，而产业地理集中多以产业群落为表现形式，通过对生态种群理论和群落的研究，发现产业群落的形成与生态学上的群落形成机理有相似之处。本文基于对生态种群理论和群落的研究，从生态学上区分了产业集群和产业群落的定义，并且按照产业群落实现途径不同将其分为原生性产业群落即自然形成的传统产业群落和次生性产业群落即政府主导型产业群落，分别探讨不同类型的产业地理集中的实现条件。     

国外农村贫困地理研究进展

农村贫困地理作为农村贫困研究的一个重要分支,其研究成果对丰富农村贫困理论和制定农村扶贫政策都具有十分重要的意义。随着普查数据的完善、地理信息技术和遥感技术的应用以及统计分析方法的发展,农村贫困地理研究呈现出一些新趋势和新特征。通过梳理近20年来国外农村贫困研究文献,从地理学视角对空间贫困陷阱的概念及存在性检验、地理因素对农村贫困形成的作用机理、区域贫困的测算及贫困地图的绘制、区域瞄准及效果评估等方面进行系统的回顾和评述,总结出国外农村贫困地理研究的特点与发展方向,提出未来国内相关研究的若干主题。     

管理会计发展的历程--行为科学的一种解释

本文从探讨管理会计研究的困惑出发,以行为会计、行为科学和经济学相关理论为基础,总结管理会计的产生、发展与变革,认为以行为科学为主题研究管理会计问题,既是历史主线,又是其发展方向,并提出了以行为科学为主导的管理会计理论框架.     

特色专业村寨的形成历程对连片特困地区扶贫攻坚的启示

以武陵山片区境内典型的专业村——保靖县黄金村为样本,采取住户调查、深度访谈和定量分析等方法系统研究了黄金村的专业化发展进程、影响因素、贫困演变以及专业化发展对贫困演变的影响,发现产业传统、技术突破、政府推动和能人示范是专业化发展的主要影响因素,伴随专业化发展,贫困状况不断减轻,专业化发展具有显著的减贫效应,但在不同贫困维度上存在一定差异。藉此,对黄金村进一步的发展提出了几点建议,亦对连片特困地区农村专业化发展和扶贫攻坚予以一些借鉴与启示。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.