预期社会化、资产选择行为与家庭财产性收入

文章从心理、经济和社会的综合视角,通过提出预期社会化的形成与传导机理,构建"心理(预期社会化)→行为(资产选择行为)→结果(财产性收入)"的分析框架,运用无条件分位数回归等估计技术,采用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,实证检验了预期社会化影响资产选择行为与财产性收入的研究假设.研究发现:预期社会化促进了家庭的金融投资行为,加快了财产性收入的增长.但是预期社会化对家庭财产性收入的积极效应并非同质,家庭预期社会化水平和能力的差异加剧了家庭财产性收入差距的扩大.文章的研究结论不仅为解释家庭财产性收入积累与差距找到了新的理论依据和经验证据,而且为预期管理政策的制定提供了重要参考价值.     

基于理性预期的宏观计量模型研究

理性预期在现代宏观经济学中起着重要的作用。传统的宏观计量经济模型没有考虑到理性预期的影响。因此,受到理性预期学派的批评。文章明确引入理性预期,建立了基于中国数据的月度宏观计量模型。在此基础上,文章系统分析了宏观经济中各种变量之间的关系,以及政府政策对宏观经济的影响。     

财政透明度对企业产能过剩的影响研究——基于"主观"与"被动"投资偏误的视角

文章把地方政府的财政透明度纳入企业微观行为的分析体系,根据《2012年中国市级政府财政透明度研究报告》和《2012年世界银行中国企业调查数据》等统计资料,实证检验了财政透明度对企业产能过剩的两种影响机制——企业"主观"投资偏误形成机理和"被动"投资偏误形成机理.研究发现:(1)财政透明度的提高会增加企业对政府行为的理性预期,减少其对外部经营环境的不确定性判断,抑制了企业由于"主观"投资偏误而导致的产能利用率低下、产能过剩现象;(2)财政透明度的提高增加了政府干预土地要素市场的成本,继而减少了企业因政府干预土地要素市场而产生的"被动"投资偏误,产能利用率提高.     

基于行为金融学的房价预期对地价的动态作用机制研究

文章借鉴行为金融学中的适应性预期理论和前景理论,在对开发商的土地竞买行为特征进行理论分析的基础上,建立了房价预期对地价作用的非对称动态关系模型,并用中国的数据进行了实证检验。主要研究结论:房地产开发商基于房价历史数据形成未来房价预期,并依据房价预期对土地价值进行判断。开发商的房价预期对地价的作用具有动态性和非对称性。开发商在"优于预期"时段更加倾向于风险规避,在"劣于预期"时段更加倾向于风险趋向。同时,在"优于预期"时段对土地价值评估的增加程度要高于在"劣于预期"时段对土地价值评估的降低程度。     

理性预期学派货币中性理论在中国的实证检验

利用中国1994年以来的经济数据,通过建立ARIMA模型和二阶段OLS模型对理性预期学派货币中性理论进行了检验。实证结果显示,短期内中国预期的货币供给冲击与非预期的货币供给冲击对产出都有显著影响,且非预期的货币供给冲击对产出影响更明显;但从长期看,预期货币与非预期货币对产出的正负效应相互抵消,中国货币政策表现为长期渐近中性。     

媒体报道、通胀预期与新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线

本文研究媒体报道对通胀预期的影响以及预期对现实通货膨胀的驱动效应。文章根据发行量排名、影响力和覆盖范围选取媒体库并计算相关媒体报道的量化指标,通过调查数据获得现实中公众对未来的通胀预期,进而检验媒体报道是否对公众预期通胀率具有显著影响。文章还进一步构建了基于微观基础的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型,用以考察通胀预期对现实通胀率的驱动效应。研究结果表明,中国的媒体舆论显著驱动公众预期,媒体舆论对公众预期变化的解释程度接近30%;单份报刊每增加1篇关于物价上涨的相关报道,公众预期通胀率会上升0.1%～0.2%;同时,公众预期又对现实通胀率具有显著驱动效应,公众预期通胀率每上升1%,现实通胀率上升0.3%～0.7%。因此,我国存在着从媒体报道到公众预期再到现实通货膨胀的传导机制。     

个体决策行为的实验研究述评

大量有关个体决策行为的研究主要集中于个体判断及风险和不确定条件下的个体选择行为。通过广泛的实验分析,研究者发现了大量不同于传统理性预期模式的个体决策行为特征,如随机错觉、同比率效应、偏好颠倒、禀赋效应及确定性效应等。人们应用简化的程序或“启发式方法”,而这容易导致在解决问题、判断和选择中的系统性误差(偏离)。本文对个体决策行为理论及其实验研究进行了评述,对预期效用模型及个体偏好理性的公理化假定进行了反思,并提出了今后经济学在行为研究层面的潜在方向。     

公民对治理的认知:中国城乡居民满意度调查

在过去三十年间,尽管中国在各个领域进行了大刀阔斧的改革,但是政府在居民的日常生活中仍然扮演着十分重要的角色。无论是在计划生育、土地利用,还是在向居民提供服务等方面,政府行为对人们的日常生活都产生了深远的影响。就中国居民对政府及其官员行为的认知,以及对待公共服务的看法而言,我们知之甚少。文章基于田野调查,试图通过一些指标来测度和比较中国城乡居民对不同层级的政府及其官员绩效的满意度。     

通胀预期对未来住房价格的影响——基于消费者信心指数的分析

以消费者信心指数作为通货膨胀预期指标,以中国1999—2010年住房市场月度数据为样本,实证检验通货膨胀预期对未来住房价格的影响。实证检验结果表明,通货膨胀预期会导致住房价格上涨,即生产者和消费者对通货膨胀预期将推动住房价格的不断上涨,因此,稳定通货膨胀预期对于稳定住房价格具有十分重要的作用。     

我国学习型通胀预期及特征——基于适应性学习机制的实证研究

本文通过推导卡尔曼滤波式适应性学习方程,利用1990年第1季度至2016年第2季度的通胀数据,对我国学习型通胀预期的特征进行估计,并进一步从认知偏差检验、无偏性检验和有效性检验三个层面对我国学习型通胀预期的特征进行了检验.研究结果表明:我国学习型通胀预期较好地反映了实际通胀率的波动,央行在制定货币政策时有较明显的平滑倾向,学习型通胀预期有较明显的近理性特征.     

The Fisher effect,survey data and time-varying volatility

In this paper we study the Fisher hypothesis using Livingston survey data on inflation expectations. We propose a simple model for the ex-ante real interest rate where the standard deviation of survey forecasts is used to correct for heteroskedasticity. The findings of this paper contradict earlier studies. We find supportive evidence for the Fisher hypothesis that the nominal interest rate and expected inflation move one-for-one both in the short and the long run. Our results also suggest that the change of US monetary policy does not have significant effect on the dynamics of the ex-ante real interest rate such as previous work assumes.     

Biases in fiscal multiplier estimates

The size of fiscal multipliers is intensively debated as large (small) multipliers provide arguments to expand (cut) public spending. We use data on multiplier estimates from over a hundred scholarly studies, and ask whether the national imprint and various incentives that the authors face can help explain the large observed variance in these estimates. We complement this meta-analytical data with information on economists’ personal characteristics collected from their biographies and through a self-conducted survey. Our evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that national background and policy orientation of researchers matter for the size of multiplier estimates. We only find weak support for the hypothesis that the interests of donors financing the research are relevant. Significant biases largely disappear for teams of international co-authors.     

A test of the permanent income hypothesis on Czech voucher privatization

In 1992 the Czech Republic privatized state assets, which resulted in some citizens receiving an unexpected windfall. Whether the windfall was consumed or saved provides a clear test of the permanent income hypothesis in a transitional economy. Analysis of data from a survey conducted specifically to test this hypothesis indicates that only a small number of transferred assets were consumed, a finding which is consistent with the permanent income hypothesis. JEL classification: D31, E21, H24.     

组织化潜在利润对农民专业合作组织形成发展的影响

关于农民专业合作经济组织的形成与发展,现有文献多强调外部支持,对内在动力,特别是组织化潜在利润普遍关注不够。本文基于制度变迁理论,提出追求组织化潜在利润是农民进行制度创新的动力,是组织形成和良性发展的先决条件的假说,并基于一套于2003年年底和2009年年初对全国5省380村跟踪调查形成的面板数据,对假说进行了检验。     

Sexual freedom and family ties: Evidence from China's ethnic minorities

In a culture with a high degree of sexual freedom, an individual is less likely to know who his male ancestors are, thereby leading to loose family links. We establish an inverse relationship between sexual freedom and family ties using individual survey and minority-level data from China. By employing traditional minority-level marriage customs and labour intensity to instrument for contemporary individual attitudes towards sexual freedom, the two-stage least-squares estimates confirm the causal relationship between sexual freedom and family ties. Moreover, loose family ties tend to result in limited trust among family members and more reliance on contracts rather than blood relations when engaging in business with relatives. We confirm the hypothesis using individual survey and minority-level data.     

An Experimental Testing of Anchoring Effects in Discrete Choice Questions

This paper re-examines the openended/dichotomous choice question in the lab. It hasearlier been suggested that the dichotomous choiceformat suffers from anchoring and yea-saying.Comparing actual economic commitments for a privategood with a significant market value, we cannot rejectthe null hypothesis of equal WTP for the two formats.We conclude that problems with DC might be due toissues of how the survey is framed, not the DCquestion itself.     

High-school genetic diversity and later-life student outcomes: micro-level evidence from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study

A novel hypothesis posits that levels of genetic diversity in a population may partially explain variation in the development and success of countries. Our paper extends evidence on this question by subjecting the hypothesis to an alternative context that eliminates many competing hypotheses. We do this by aggregating representative individual-level data for high schools from a single US state (Wisconsin) in 1957, when the population was composed nearly entirely of individuals of European ancestry. Using this sample of high school aggregations, we too find a strong association between school-level genetic diversity and a range of student socioeconomic outcomes. Our use of survey data also allows for a greater exploration into the potential mechanisms of genetic diversity. In doing so, we find positive associations between genetic diversity and indexes for openness to experience and extraversion, two personality traits tied to creativity and divergent thinking.     

Assessing information provision and respondent involvement effects on preferences

We develop a test of the effect of information and respondent involvement on preferences for passive-use values using three treatments. Individuals from a rural community participated in one of three groups, each with a different level of involvement in the valuation assessment. The first group was highly involved, attending three meetings which allowed for information acquisition and preference construction. The second group was involved in a single meeting, and the third group was minimally involved through telephone contact and the completion of a mail administered survey. The hypothesis examined was that the degree of involvement in the exercise would affect the magnitude and consistency of preferences across the groups. The hypothesis that the preferences differ was not accepted. Furthermore, the hypothesis that variances in preferences would be higher in less involved groups was also rejected. While the analysis is based on relatively small samples the findings suggest caution in claiming that increasing degrees of respondent involvement improve economic measures of trade-offs.     

A failed attempt to explain within subject variation in risk taking behavior using domain specific risk attitudes

Previous research has found considerable variation in risk taking behavior within individuals across tasks. In this paper, we develop a hypothesis derived from the psychology literature that such apparently inconsistent behavior can be explained by a subject's domain specific risk attitudes. To test our hypothesis, we conducted a laboratory study using multiple paid risk elicitation tasks and a risk attitude survey. Consistent with previous research, our results indicated considerable within subject variation in behavior across tasks. However, we found little support for the hypothesis that this variation can be explained by domain specific risk attitudes.     

Emigration,wage differentials and brain drain: the case of Suriname

In this article, we examine two hypotheses concerning emigration. The first hypothesis is that emigration is positively correlated with wage differentials. The second hypothesis concerns a positive correlation between emigration and higher education in the sending country (the so-called brain gain hypothesis). We analyse unique time-series data for Suriname for the period 1972–2009, for which we fit error correction models to disentangle short-run from long-run effects. We document moderate support for the first hypothesis, but we find strong support for the brain drain (and not brain gain) hypothesis. We conclude with implications of our findings for Suriname.