江苏和亚洲“四小”投资环境的比较分析

投资环境，即影响资本营运的各种社会政治条件、经济条件等因素的综合。正确认识一个地方的投资环境，是投资方和外资利用方都很关心的事，这在今天我们要发展外向型经济，而亚洲“四小”及其它发展中国家也在集中精力发展经济，利用外资竞争日益激烈的情况下尤其如此。因此有必要从不同角度对江苏的投资环境与亚洲“四小”的投资环境作一比较，并从比较中找出差距。”然后，对如何进一步搞好江苏的利用外资工作提出对策性建议。本文打算从以下六个方面对江苏和亚洲“四小”的投资环境展开对比分析：1．社会政治条件。亚洲“四小”中，台湾…     

企业技术创新扩散方式研究

<正> 企业技术创新是科技进步的核心。技术创新扩散是技术创新通过一定的渠道在潜在使用者之间传播采用的过程。从科技进步的角度看,技术创新不只在于本身价值的多少,更在于这种创新的扩散。技术创新对一个国家、一个企业或一个地区经济的影响,取决于创新成果在整个经济系统中的扩散效果。因此,技术创新扩散对增强创新效果、加速科技进步有着重大意义。     

从东亚模式争论中看经济增长中技术的作用

亚洲金融危机爆发前30年,东亚保持了高速的经济增长,表现最为突出的是亚洲"四小龙"的经济崛起。亚洲"四小龙"的经济起飞大约从20世纪60年代初开始。从1960年到2000年,韩国、新加坡、中国香港和中国台湾的人均收入增长率年平均分别为5.8%、6.3%、5.6%、6.4%。经过大约40年的经济增长,"四小龙"相继跨入了中高收入水平的国家和地区的行列。1993年世界银行发表了《东亚的奇迹:经济增长和政府政策》的报告,将东亚经济增长模式作为楷模推荐给发展中国家,使东亚模式成为其他发展中国家学习的榜样。因此,东亚会爆发金融危机,出乎大多数经济学家的意料之外。     

基于生命周期理论的技术创新模式选择

<正>技术创新活动是一项高投入、高风险、高回报的科研生产经营活动,企业决策者选择怎样的技术创新战略与策略,取决于企业内外部两大方面的多重因素。研究与开发能力的高低,是企业的内部决定性因素之一。而对外部的决定性因素的分析,则可结合企业产品的生命周期理论进行。 一、从技术经济的角度认识技术创新 技术创新从技术经济的角度指的是创新者借助于技术上的发明和发现,对生产要素和生产条件、生产组织进行重新组合,以建立效能更好、效率更高的新的生产体系,获得更大利润的过程。技术创新作为技术革新活动,包括三个基本的方面,一是产品创新,它可以是全新技术的全新产品创新,也可以是现有技术发现后     

韩国国家科技创新体系的建设及其启示

创新是一个民族进步的灵魂,在知识经济时代,技术创新则成为企业技术进步、国家经济增长的源泉和动力。同作为发展中国家,韩国和我国的技术进步都建立在对引进技术消化吸收的基础之上,自主开发技术的能力还比较薄弱。为此,目前两国都在进行科技政策的调整,致力于形成和提高技术创新的能力。韩国科技创新体系的建设有诸多可之处,其经验可供我国借鉴。     

没有技术创新西部地区经济就不可能发展

任何先进的国家和地区经济的发展,是由于其技术创新活动的全面开展,而其衰落则是由于其技术创新活动的衰落;众多原来落后的发展中国家,其经济水平的迅速提高,是由于其技术创新活动的全面开展;而世界经济发展中心的兴起和转移,虽然影响因素众多,但主要因素则是其创新中心的兴起和转移。英帝国的衰落,日本经济的发展,以及亚洲四小龙的崛起,无不如此。对于我国的西部地区来讲,西部地区存在着经济进一步发展的巨潜力和优势,具体表现在：1、市场优势,西部地区人口占全国的1／3,生活水平较低,拥有广泛的市场前景;2、资源优势,西部地区土地广阔,资源丰富,具有不可多得的资源优势;3、一定的产业优势,如化工、机械等产业已形成一定的优势;4、政策优势,“九五”以来,由国家安排的预算内建设投资的2／3投向了中西部,今后的政策倾斜会更大。但西部地区现有的发展水平较低,产业竞争力较弱,基础设施建设更为薄弱,技术创新的宏观测度指标技术进步对经济增长贡献份额的统计较低（不超过30％）,而发达国家技术进步对国民收入增长速度的贡献,在本世纪初大约是5％－20％,到了50－70年代,一般达到50％－70％;作为亚洲四小龙的韩国同期也达到56％;而经济不发达国家,如秘鲁只占8％。不难看出,随着技术创新的开展经济也获得高速增长。因此,西部人除了要进一步改善投资环境,更重要的是要加速技术创新。     

技术创新扩散的机制及其本质探讨

技术创新扩散得以进行的外部条件和内在动力是技术创新扩散的基本机制，技术创新扩散本质上来说是在有关创新技术信息传播基础上新技术对老技术的替代过程，该过程是创新扩散与采纳方的垄断博弈过程，涉及到采纳者对新技术的学习与掌握。     

正视困难和问题强化和落实对改革的投入

当代科技和经济的发展，在很大程度上是由持续的技术进步与创新所推动的。从某种意义上讲．只有依靠技术创新，方能促成产业技术能力和经济增长质量的提高。因此，当代不少经济学家和科学家都认为技术创新是生产要素的一种新的优化组合，包括从一个新的构想开始，到获得成功的商业应用为止。亦即技术创新贯穿于科学发现、发明，新成果的开发引进，新市场的开拓，新的原材料的获取，工业企业组织新形式的实现，科学管理等一系列活动的全过程。所以，技术创新是科技进步与经济发展的源泉，它已不是一个纯粹的技术概念，而是属于技术经济一体化的范畴。     

试论管理与技术创新互动运行模式对企业科技进步与经济发展的影响

从建立管理与技术创新互动模式入手,重点分析了如何通过加强管理创新和技术创新,促进科技进步与经济的持续发展,进行了有益的探索。     

创新观念扩散过程研究

所谓创新观念扩散，是指创新信息由创新技术提供者，经由各种信息传输渠道，直接或间接地作用于创新技术需求企业的决策者，进而形成接受技术创新扩散的观念的过程。创新观念扩散是技术创新扩散的第一个环节。从时序上看，一项技术创新扩散欲得以实现，必须完成创新观念扩散、创新技术扩散和创新实施技术扩散三个前后联接的子过程，其中，创新观念扩散是技术创新扩散的前提和基础。一、基本结构1．创新观念。是指业已实现创新的企业对创新技术所形成的全部理念。2．创新观念的构成，包括技术方面的、经济方面的和其他方面的理念。技术方面的…     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.