Monetary Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Hysteresis: Evidence from the G-7 Countries

Long-run monetary neutrality specifies that nominal disturbances do not affect long-run real exchange rates. However, the "over depreciation" of the US dollar in the late 1980s, after its strong appreciation earlier in the decade, suggested to a number of observers that nominal disturbances alter long-run real exchange rates; that is, money supply shocks entail real exchange rate hysteresis. Using data from the G-7 countries and the post-1973 float, the paper measures the long-run effects of relative money supply disturbances on real US dollar exchange rates. Little evidence of hysteretic monetary policy effects is found.     

Exchange rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in Greek exports to the Euro Area,the US and Turkey: sectoral evidence

In this paper a non-linear model is applied, where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction, which we call “play” area—analogous to mechanical play. We implement an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on Greek exports is estimated based on the period from 1995Q1 to 2014Q4. Looking at some of the main export partners of Greece, the euro area, Turkey and the US, and some of its most important tradeable sectors we identify significant hysteretic effects for a part of the Greek exports. We find that Greek export activity is characterized by “bands of inaction” with respect to changes in the real exchange rate and calculate the further real depreciation needed to trigger a spurt in Greek exports. To check for robustness we (a) estimate Greek export equations for a limited sample excluding the recent financial crisis, (b) use export weight instead of deflated nominal exports as the dependent variable, (c) employ a political uncertainty variable as a determinant of the width of the area of weak reaction. Overall, we find that those specifications which take uncertainty into account display the best goodness of fit. In other words: the option value of waiting dominates the real exchange rate effect on Greek exports.     

A stable demand for money despite financial crisis: the case of Venezuela

The demand for broad money in Venezuela is investigated over a period of financial crisis and substantial exchange rate fluctuations. The analysis shows that there exist a long-run relationship between real money, real income, inflation, the exchange rate and an interest rate differential, that remains stable over major policy changes and large shocks. The long-run properties emphasize that both inflation and exchange rate depreciations have negative effects on real money demand, whereas a higher interest rate differential has positive effects. The long-run relationship is finally embedded in a dynamic equilibrium correction model with constant parameters. These results have implications for a policy-maker. In particular, they emphasize that with a high degree of currency substitution in Venezuela, monetary aggregates will be very sensitive to changes in the economic environment.     

TRADING VOLUME,VOLATILITY, AND GARCH EFFECTS IN THE SOUTH KOREAN WON/US DOLLAR EXCHANGE MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM CONDITIONAL QUANTILE ESTIMATION*

Under the MDH, this paper investigates the asymmetry in the positive relationship between unexpected volume and volatility, and whether the unexpected volume series as a proxy for the rate of information arrival absorbs the GARCH effects. This is achieved by applying a quantile regression approach to the won/dollar exchange market with reliable data on trading volumes. Interestingly, the results show that in a freely floating exchange rate system, the positive relationship increases as exchange rate returns are higher. Contrary to previous studies, despite a significantly positive relationship, the inclusion of volumes alone does not reduce volatility persistence at medium or high levels of returns. In addition, the reform of the South Korean exchange rate system had an impact on the relationship, which occurred in response to a financial crisis.     

Exchange rate volatility and its impact on domestic investment

The relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and domestic investment has attracted some attention in macro literature. Previous studies that investigated the relation concentrated on firm level data with mixed results. In this paper we argue that the relationship applies equally at the aggregate. We assess the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate volatility on domestic investment in each of the 36 countries in our sample using time-series data. The application of the bounds testing approach indicates that exchange rate volatility has significant short-run effects on domestic investment in 27 countries. The short-run effects are translated into the long-run only in 12 countries.     

Exchange Rates and Outward Foreign Direct Investment: US FDI in Emerging Economies

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rates on US foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to a sample of 16 emerging market countries using annual panel data for the period 1990–2002. Three separate exchange rate effects are considered: the value of the local currency (a cheaper currency attracts FDI); expected changes in the exchange rate (expected devaluation implies FDI is postponed); and exchange rate volatility (discourages FDI). The results reveal a negative relationship between FDI and more expensive local currency, the expectation of local currency depreciation, and volatile exchange rates. Stable exchange rate management can be important in attracting FDI.     

汇率水平及其波动性变化对产业结构调整的影响*

在开放经济条件下研究汇率制度调整所引致的汇率水平及其波动性的变化对产业结构变动的复杂影响及其经济结构效应,符合我国推进新一轮改革开放的战略需求和当前世界经济全球化的发展趋势。有鉴于此,本文试图探讨在汇率制度调整和范式改变的条件下汇率变动的改变对我国工业部门产业结构调整的影响。基于2003-2012年的时间序列数据,本研究建立了汇率水平及波动率与工业产业结构的向量自回归模型,通过协整检验和脉冲响应函数考察了各变量间的长期均衡关系和短期冲击影响。实证结果表明,汇率升值并没有促进工业部门内的产业结构升级,但是汇率弹性的增加有利于工业部门内的产业结构向有益的方向发生改变。     

A Simple Model of Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty

A model leading to employment hysteresis due to sunk hiring- and firing-costs is proposed. A potential mechanism based on a band of inaction that could account for a 'weaker' relationship between employment and its determinants is augmented by exchange rate uncertainty. As a result of option value effects the band of inaction is widened. Thus, the hysteresis effects are strongly amplified by exchange rate uncertainty (as numerical examples demonstrate). Non-linearities in the employment-relation are implied, i.e. 'spurts' in new employment or firing may occur after an initially weak response to a reversal of the exchange rate.     

汇率传递：模型说明及文献综述

汇率是开放经济环境下的核心工具变量,在维持一国内部平衡和外部平衡时起着重要的作用。对于汇率传递问题的关注开始于世界由固定汇率体系向浮动汇率体系转变的时期,目前它仍然是关于外部调整研究的重要内容。本文分析了汇率传递与一价定律、依市场定价之间的关系,使用一个汇率传递模型阐明了汇率变动对价格体系的传导机制。汇率变动对商品出口价格和进口价格传递应该是一个连续的过程。当获知汇率发生变动时,出口商在不完全竞争的市场结构下,出于经营目的会调整其对价格的加成,这反应到进口国的进口价格上已经是一种“不完全”的传递;而进口商品由于存在分销过程,在最终销售价格上包含了相当程度的国内不可贸易的服务成本,这部分成本由于不受汇率变动的影响,因此汇率变动对进口价格的传递会进一步被削弱。     

Export Subsidies and Exchange Rate Pass‐through

This paper investigates effects of exchange rate on optimal trade policies and market prices within a standard export subsidy model. Shifts in exchange rate change relative efficiencies of firms in different countries. We show that depreciation of own currency increases subsidy levels when marginal cost is constant. Import dependency weakens this relationship, decreasing sensitivity of subsidy levels to depreciation. In general, subsidies reduce exchange rate pass‐through. Additionally, perverse exchange rate pass‐through effect arises with sufficiently intensive subsidies.     

Exchange rate volatility and United Kingdom trade: evidence from Canada,Japan and New Zealand

This paper investigates the influence of exchange rate volatility on the real imports of the United Kingdom from Canada, Japan and New Zealand during the period 1980–2003. The Johansen multivariate cointegration method and the constrained error correction (general-to-specific) method are applied to study the relationship between real imports and its determinants (including exchange rate volatility). Conditional variance from the GARCH(1,1) model is applied as exchange rate volatility. Both nominal and real exchange rates are employed in the empirical study. Results indicate a significant effect of the exchange rate volatility on real imports. These exchange rate volatility effects are mostly positive. The author thanks an anonymous referee, the editor and Myles Wallace for several useful comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors and omissions are the author’s responsibility alone.     

Modelling real exchange rate effects on output performance in Latin America

This article empirically analyses real per capita GDP growth for six Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Mexico, Venezuela) in terms of real exchange rate depreciations, inflation and US interest rates, focussing on the role of the real exchange rate. We find evidence of nonlinearity in this relationship, which we capture through a smooth transition regression model. With the exception of Mexico, nonlinearity in economic growth is associated with changes in the real exchange rate, with depreciations leading to different relationships compared with appreciations. Regimes for Mexico are associated with the past growth rates, with effectively symmetric effects of real exchange rate changes. Although our results are in accord with other recent literature in that depreciations may have negative effects for growth, the asymmetries we uncover indicate that these effects depend on the conditioning state.     

Exchange Rate Exposure of Chinese Firms at the Industry and Firm Level

This study investigates the exchange rate exposure of Chinese firms at the industry and firm level based on the conventional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) framework. At the industry level, the dynamic conditional correlation MGARCH (DCC MGARCH) estimates demonstrate that the market model and three‐factor model are appropriate for exposure measurements, and industry returns are more likely to be exposed to unanticipated changes in the real exchange rate and the trade‐weighted effective exchange rate, particularly for manufacturing industries. At the firm level, although the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimates vary across markets, it is apparent that there is a relationship between firm size and exposure effects, which also show that lagged exchange rate changes have significant exposure effects on firm returns. This study finally suggests that non‐financial firms should set up special commissions to hedge currency risks of their future cash flows.     

长期经济成长与实际汇率演变

巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应对一国经济成长过程中劳动生产率追赶与实际汇率变动之间联系提出了理论推测。本文介绍巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应假说理论内容和经验研究文献,利用国别截面数据与时间序列数据考查其主要经验证据。本文还讨论了巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应假说对研究人民币实际汇率问题的借鉴意义。     

Exchange Rate Passthrough Effects and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies: What is the Relationship?

Several studies have shown that over the past 10 years the passthrough effect from currency depreciation into domestic inflation has been decreasing in emerging economies that adopted inflation targeting (IT) during the mid and late 1990s. Therefore the nominal exchange rate effect on domestic inflation is becoming less of an issue for these countries. The literature has offered different explanations for these declines but so far they have not been directly related to the adoption of IT. This paper shows that lower passthrough effects can also be the result of the implementation of an IT regime and argues, contrary to previous studies, that the effects of the nominal exchange rate on inflation are still a relevant issue for emerging IT countries. The reason for this is that the empirical evidence offered for the lower passthrough misses the nature of the relationship between inflation and the nominal exchange rate under IT.     

影响人民币汇率变动长期因素的实证分析

随着中国经济的高速增长以及贸易顺差的逐年扩大,加之金融危机的余波尚未结束,人民币汇率问题成为世界关注的焦点。首先阐述了影响人民币汇率变动的长期因素,包括中国经济发展状况、国际收支及通货膨胀率,并分析了它们与汇率变动的关系。然后运用多元回归方法对这些影响因素与人民币汇率的相关性加以验证分析。     

Time-varying exchange rate exposure and exchange rate risk pricing in the Canadian Equity Market

This paper aims to extend the existing literature on foreign exchange rate risk pricing. Unlike the existing studies on Canada, we use six alternative bilateral and one multilateral exchange rate proxies. Furthermore, using both a two-factor and a three-factor capital asset pricing model (CAPM), we test for the presence of a long-run relationship among exchange rate risk pricing, herding behavior, term structure and the interest rate. The estimated results based on both the ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized least squares (GLS) estimation techniques confirm that exchange rate risk in the Canadian equity market is priced and that the pricing of this risk is time-varying. This result holds for all seven exchange rate proxies. Our empirical analysis also suggests the presence of a long-run relationship among exchange rate risk pricing, herding behavior, term structure and the interest rate. This relationship is found to be insensitive to variations in the world market return.     

Financial Openness and the Dutch Disease

This paper studies the relationship between the degree of financial openness and Dutch disease effects of capital inflows in developing countries. The results reveal that an increase in financial openness leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate. In particular, the study shows that an increase in inflow of foreign direct investments (FDI) results in an appreciation of the real exchange rate in more financially open countries only. The results also suggest that there is a trade‐off between the resource movement effect and the spending effect in more financially open economies following an increase in FDI inflows, such that the more the tradable sector expands relative to the nontradable sector, the greater is the real exchange rate appreciation.     

Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade volumes for Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey. We use volatility predicted from GARCH models for both nominal and real effective exchange rate data. To detect the long-term relationship we use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach, while for the short-term effects, Granger causality models are employed. The results show that, in the long term, there is no linkage between exchange rate volatility and international trade activities except for Turkey, and even in this case, the magnitude of the effect of volatility is quite small. In the short term, however, a significant causal relationship from volatility to import/export demand is detected for Indonesia and Mexico. In the case of Nigeria, unidirectional causality from export demand to volatility is found, while for Turkey, no causality between volatility and import/export demand is detected.     

Exchange Rate Volatility,Earnings Uncertainty and Bidirectional Trade Flows: Empirical Evidence on Ghana

Although the empirical findings on the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade is diverse, the growing consensus in the literature appears to suggest that for developing economies, the theoretically expected negative relationship almost always exists. The paper takes a different approach to empirically assess this relationship by analysing the impact of exchange rate volatility independently on total trade, imports and exports. The intuition behind this approach is to assess exactly how exporters and importers are incentivised (differently or similarly) by exchange rate volatility costs. Whereas adequately risk-aversed Ghanaian exporters in the presence of higher exchange rate volatility and the absence of hedging facilities effectively compensated against exchange rate risk by increasing volume of exports, import decisions were to some extent (although not effectively) negatively affected by exchange rate volatility. The different responses by Ghanaian exporters and importers to higher exchange rate volatility costs are reflected in the relationship between volatility and total trade. The useful policy lessons and the challenges that the empirical evidence present are discussed.