货币供给内生性研究

一、不同学派对外生性与内生性的界定货币供给究竟是外生的还是内生的,各个学派有不同看法,而且,不同学派对外生性与内生性的界定也不同。货币主义和主流凯恩斯主义认为货币供给函数的性质是稳定可测的,货币供给量具有外生性,是由政策、意志、经济运行过程之外的其他因素决定的外生变量,是中央银行所能完全控制的外生变量。现代货币数量论认为,如果货币供给的变动能使货币需求量受到影响,那么货币供给就是外生的;反之,货币供给量是内生的。后凯恩斯主义,认为主流凯恩斯主义对凯恩斯经济学的解释偏离了凯恩斯的愿意,试图对凯恩斯经济学作出新…     

货币供给的性质:内生抑或外生

本文梳理了中外学术界关于货币供给性质的研究文献，在此基础上从币材、经济体制、货币供给结构、货币供给机制等多个层面探讨了货币供给的性质。其研究结论是：在现代市场经济条件下，货币供给兼具内生性和外生性．它既是内生变量又是外生变量。正是货币供给的外生性为中央银行实施货币政策、实现金融宏观调控提供了理论前提。     

中国货币供给规模趋势及影响因素的实证研究

自1984年中国人民银行剥离四大国有商业银行业务,专门行使中央银行职能以来,货币供给一直是中国人民银行的重要职能之一,保持均衡货币供给,稳定物价水平从而实现国民经济健康、持续和稳定发展更是中央银行实施货币政策,进行宏观调控所追求的目标。关于货币供给问题,目前许多学者研究的热点大都是货币供给的内生性和外生性问题,争论的目的都是为了更好地制定货币政策,然而笔者认为,仅仅争论货币的外生和内生问题并没有太大的意义,     

货币供给内生外生辨析

货币供给究竟是内生的还是外生的,这是货币金融领域始终争论不休的问题。货币数量论从货币数量与物价变动的关系得出货币具有外生性;凯恩斯的货币供给观由于经济环境的改变经历了由内生向外生的转变;后凯恩斯主义者则从信贷货币的产生过程得出货币内生的观点.综观货币发展史,内生与外生之争还有标准的混乱和概念不同等原因。     

货币供给内生性原因：国内外研究述评

货币供给内生性与外生性问题经久不衰，本文系统梳理了国内外关于货币供给内生与外生问题的研究脉络，围绕货币供给内生性原因，着重讨论了凯恩斯主义、货币主义、后凯恩斯主义等流派对货币供给性质及其原因的不同分析框架和观点。研究发现，主张货币供给内生论的主要流派即后凯恩斯主义学派，其货币供给内生论能很好地解释工业经济时期典型的货币化生产体系中货币与实体经济变量的关系，但很多观点都没有与时俱进，在面对金融业非常发达的现代服务经济体系时，解释力不足。本文认为，货币供给内生性问题的研究重点不应停留至此，可以尝试从信用创造视角探讨现代货币供给的性质及其微观机制。     

莫尔的水平主义模型及其评述

同 为货币供给内生性理论 ,2 0世纪 70年代的卡尔多 -温特劳布的理论突出了中央银行在承担其最后贷款人和货币保卫者职能上的被动与无奈 ,而莫尔的理论①则更深入地探讨了金融运行机制变化的影响。一、莫尔货币供给内生性理论的基本观点莫尔从信用货币的内生性、基础货币供给的内生性、商业银行的主动负债管理造成的货币供给的内生性以及商业银行角色转换传导的货币供给内生性四个方面来论证其货币供给内生性理论。(一 )信用货币的内生性莫尔将货币划分为商品货币 (如金币 )、政府货币和信用货币三类。他认为金币的供给量取决于黄金存量和黄金的生产率 ,公众可以按官价无限制的买卖黄金 ,此时的货币供给体现为外生性 ;政府货币则是政府为弥补财政赤字而发行的货币 ,它的供给由政府利益决定 ,而不是中央银行 ,体现为内生性 ;但现代意义上的货币已经不是商品货币和政府货币 ,而是信用货币 ,它的供给虽然受中央银行政策的影响 ,但在本质上没有生产和资源的约束 ,只为货币需求所决定 ,在既定利率和贷款条件下 ,无论是中央银行还是商业银行都无法拒绝客户的货币需求。当商业银行提供贷款时 ,相应的存款被直接创造出来 ,一部分留在贷款银行 ,另一部分在借...     

内生货币供给理论视野中的货币政策传导机制

内生货币供给理论认为 ,中央银行基础货币的供给并非是由中央银行完全控制的外生变量 ,而主要是由商品流通及经济活动所内在决定及制约的内生变量 ,并由此决定了在市场化金融体制下 ,应采用以利率为中间目标 ,着眼于货币需求的间接货币调控模式。本文首先阐述了内生货币供给理论的主要观点及利率型传导机制的主要内容 ,然后在此视野内 ,分析了我国基础货币供给的内生特性 ,最后建议中央银行采用“盯住利率型 "的货币调控模式以促进经济的持续、稳定发展。当然 ,这有赖于首先建立起良性的利率市场形成机制     

中国货币供给的内生性分析——从基础货币角度分析内生性

货币供给内生性理论指出公众的货币需求会直接影响中央银行的货币供给。由于在现代货币和银行制度下基本可以认为货币供给决定于基础货币与货币流通速度，而中央银行是通过改变基础货币供给量来决定流通中的货币供给量的，因此本文从基础货币角度实证检验了中国货币供给的内生性，并且提出了我国产生货币供给内生性的原因。     

我国利率市场化改革与货币供给内生性弱化之关联性分析

自上世纪60年代末以来,一些西方学者逐渐拓展了传统主流经济学对货币供给内生理论的研究,对货币政策的分析出现了许多新的经典性研究成果。拉维依(Lavoie)^[1]认为利率是外生的,银行适应信贷需求而创造信贷货币,央行作为最后贷款人而适应银行的准备需求,因此,货币供给是内生的。波林(Pollin,1991)认为货币供给在很大程度上是由私人系统内生决定的,而利率不完全外生,是由央行和市场共同决定的。麦卡勒姆(Mc-Callum)^[2]、博芬格(Bofinger)^[3]等人针对传统货币供给乘数理论的缺陷,强调了利率机制在货币供给过程中的作用,对货币供给的内生性做出了新的解释。     

货币学派和凯恩斯学派关于货币与物价关系的理论分歧

货币学派在分析货币供给与通货膨胀的关系时,一个内含的假定就是货币供给是外生给定的;凯恩斯学派则提出了内生货币供应理论。作为流动偏好的存量分析,凯恩斯强调货币作为一种资产的意义和货币与其他资产的关系以及资产的流动性;弗里德曼的货币需求理论是流量分析的一个特例,虽然它引入了凯恩斯的存量分析或"资产选择",但他把这种存量与流量的同时均衡的基础建立在新古典生产函数和中央银行外生的货币供给之上,这导致其理论的重大缺陷。对于以上问题的研究,要在内生货币供给理论框架下,采用存量和流量相结合的方法,坚持货币经济和实物经济一体化的分析思路,才可能得出正确的结论。     

货币供给的内生性与货币政策的效率——兼评我国当前货币政策的有效性

货币内生性理论指出公众的货币需求会直接影响中央银行的货币供给。因此 ,公众通过调整货币需求可以对中央银行的货币政策效果产生不确定的影响。本文利用货币内生性理论来分析公众行为对中央银行为稳定物价水平而采取的政策效果的影响 ;并通过实证分析证实我国M2 的供给有较强的内生性 ;我国货币政策在治理通货膨胀和通货紧缩的效果上存在着不对称性 ,以此可重新认识我国当前通货政策的有效性。     

内生货币体系下房价波动对货币供求的冲击

在内生货币体系下,房价上涨导致我国内生货币扩张的途径主要有两条:一是基于房地产抵押信贷需求膨胀引致的商业银行内生货币供给的扩张;二是被房价持续上涨及人民币升值预期所吸引的外汇流入导致央行大量基础货币的被动投放。这样会对货币供应量目标有效性带来影响。因此应将房地产市场监测数据列入当前货币供应量调控的参照指标。     

Money Creation in the Eurozone: An Empirical Assessment of the Endogenous and the Exogenous Money Theories

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to strengthen our understanding of the money creation process in the Eurozone for 1999–2016 period, through an empirical assessment of two main monetary theories, namely the (Post Keynesian) endogenous money theory and the (Monetarist) exogenous money theory. By applying a VAR and VECM methodology, we analyse the causal relationship among monetary reserves (or monetary base), bank deposits and bank loans. Our empirical analysis supports several propositions of the Post Keynesian endogenous money theory since (i) bank loans determine bank deposits, and (ii) bank deposits in turn determine monetary reserves.     

Central Banking and Post-Keynesian Economics

Abstract

The Post-Keynesian theory of endogenous money has given much attention to the role of the central bank in the money creation process. Circuit theory has neglected this role, in so far as it has focused on the relationship between banks and firms within a monetary production economy. The aim of this paper is therefore twofold. First, it intends to fill this gap in circuit theory, by providing a role for the central bank in settlement of interbank debts. Secondly, it aims at reinforcing the Post-Keynesian analysis of central bank money by considering both the money-purveying and the credit-purveying roles of the settlement institution in the interbank market. The result of this analysis is a more comprehensive theory of endogenous money, where the lender-of-last-resort facilities of a central bank are viewed as an endogenous phenomenon involving both a money creation and a credit operation between the central bank and the domestic banking system. In such a framework, monetary policy consists of setting the base rate of interest at a level that enables banks to limit their bilateral debt position in the interbank market, so as not to disrupt the workings of the payment system by either an illiquidity or an insolvency crisis.     

How justified is abandoning money in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia on the grounds of instability in the money‐demand function?

The role of money in the design and conduct of monetary policy has reemerged as an important issue in both advanced and developing economies, especially since the 2007 global financial crisis. A growing body of recent literature suggests that the causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation remains intact across countries and over time and that this relation is not conditional on the stability of the money‐demand function or whether money is endogenous or exogenous. Moreover, critical for a rule‐based monetary policy is the presence of a long‐run stable money‐demand function, rather than a short‐run money‐demand model that may exhibit instability for many reasons, including problems with estimating a money‐demand model with high‐frequency data. Provided that a stable money‐demand function exists, it could be useful to establish long‐run equilibrium relations among money, output, prices, and exchange rates, as the classical monetary theory suggests. Within this analytical framework, this paper addresses the question of whether money has any role in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia. The conventional wisdom is that the money‐demand function in Australia has been unstable since the mid‐1980s due to financial deregulation and reforms; this led to a change in the strategy of monetary policy for price stability in the form of inflation targeting that ignores money insofar as inflation and its control are concerned. This paper reports empirical findings for Australia, obtained from a longer quarterly data series over the period 1960Q1–2015Q1, which suggest that instability in the narrow‐money‐demand function in Australia was primarily due to the exclusion of variables which have become important in the deregulated environment since the 1980s. These findings are confirmed by an expanded form of the narrow‐money‐demand function that was found stable over the past two decades, although it experienced multiple structural breaks over the study period. The paper draws the conclusion that abandoning the monetary aggregate as an instrument of monetary policy in Australia, under a rule‐based monetary policy such as inflation targeting, cannot be justified by instability in the money‐demand function or even by lack of a causal link between money supply growth and inflation.     

An empirical procedure to evaluate monetary management under exogenous changes in the money supply

This article proposes an empirical procedure to evaluate central banks’ monetary management in a presence of exogenous changes in the money supply. Monetary shocks deviate the market interest rate from the target, and the monetary authority decides its optimal intervention in the money market, bearing in mind the benefits and costs of re-establishing its target interest rate. According to monetary management theory, typically a central bank will allow for variation in the interest rate within a range around the target interest rate, thereby intervening in the money market when the interest rate trends toward a point outside that range. In this context, we develop an empirical strategy to analyse central bank’s reactions to exogenous money changes by making a statistical comparison of the actual and the estimated intraday shift in the money supply. We also employ our method to test the reactions of the Brazilian Central Bank to liquidity shifts caused by changes in the Treasury Single Account (TSA) balance. Using different metrics of analysis, the applications of our procedure confirms the predictions of the optimal monetary management theory.     

The nature and role of monetary policy when money is endogenous

This paper considers the nature and role of monetary policywhen money is modelled as credit money endogenously createdwithin the private sector. There are currently two schools ofthought that view money as endogenous: one has been labelledthe ‘new consensus’ in macroeconomics, and the otheris the Keynesian endogenous (bank) money approach. The paperfirst explores the analysis of monetary policy in the ‘newconsensus’ macroeconomic model, followed by an examinationof the effectiveness of monetary policy in that analysis. TheKeynesian view of endogenous money is discussed, and the rolefor monetary policy in a Keynesian endogenous monetary policyanalysis is considered, including discussion of the objectivesand instruments of monetary policy.     

The ‘compensation’ thesis,as exemplified by the case of the Chinese central bank

This paper extends the theory of demand-led money supply endogeneity to the case of an open economy with a fixed exchange rate. This theory is contrasted to the standard Mundell-Fleming view. In the compensation approach advocated here, central banks are able to set interest rates, even in a fixed exchange rate regime, either because there are automatic market mechanisms that will induce the private sector to act in such a way that changes in foreign reserves will be compensated by opposite changes in central bank claims over the domestic economy, or because the central bank will engage in endogenous sterilization operations in its efforts to enforce its benchmark interest rate. Analyzing the balance sheet of the Chinese central bank, we find that the large rise in foreign reserves on the asset side is compensated by large positive changes in items of the liability side, mainly bonds issued by the central bank. Foreign reserves are not cointegrated with the monetary base, meaning that there is no long-run relationship between foreign exchange reserves and the supply of base money. We also find no long-run relation between foreign exchange reserves and the consumer price index.     

Insights on endogenous money and the liquidity preference theory of interest

It is argued that the debate between “structuralist” and “horizontalist” has long been obscured because of inadequate treatment, in both approaches, of the credit-money supply and of the total money supply. As a result, endogenous money models still have serious limitations today. On the one hand, the bank loan markup and the loan interest rate are exogenous in the horizontalist model, which supposes that they do not depend on the money/liquidity market conditions (as if bank loans did not compete with the existing liquidity). On the other hand, although interest rates are endogenous in the structuralist model, they result from inappropriate treatment of the loan supply and money/liquidity supply. This article aims to remove these shortcomings. It offers a theoretical framework and formal modeling where the creditworthy demand for loans determines the bank loan supply, given the central bank refinancing interest rate, while the total supply and demand for liquidity-money determines the markup and the market rate of interest in accordance with Keynes’s liquidity preference theory. In this framework, the post Keynesian theory of endogenous money and Keynes’s “verticalist” view prove to be analytically complementary.     

Monetary targeting in the Netherlands: an application of co-integration tests

There are two criteria to choose an intermediate variable for monetary targeting. First, the money demand function needs to be stable and second, the monetary authorities should be able to control the target variable given the available instruments. In this paper we examine whether M1 and M2 in the Netherlands fulfil the first requirement, i.e. we investigate whether a stable relationship exists between these monetary variables and key macroeconomic variables. Co-integration techniques are used which are very well suited for this purpose. Monetary policy in the Netherlands has been directed towards the growth rate of broad money (M2). The present findings do not suport the choice of M2 as an intermediate target for monetary policy in the Netherlands. A stable long-term relationship between M2 and real NNP and Long-and short-term interest rates does not exist. The results for M1 are considerbly better, though not favourable at all scores. The estimated moeny demand function for M1 is a good indicator for monetary policy, since the Dutch central bank probably cannot control the growth rate of M1.