NEW ESTIMATES OF HOURS OF WORK AND REAL INCOME IN CANADA FROM THE 1880s TO 1930: LONG-RUN TRENDS AND WORKERS' PREFERENCES

The first set of hours of work estimates constructed for Canada and its regions for the 1880–1930 period is presented in this article. These estimates suggest a trend decline in hours of work, especially following First World War. In addition, these estimates suggest that the decline in hours of work came at no or little cost in terms of real weekly income. The trends uncovered for Canada are found to be similar to those revealed for the U.S. In effect, by the early twentieth century workers were realizing their long expressed preferences for a shorter workweek at no loss in real income.     

Is there a quality bias in the Canadian CPI? Evidence from microdata

Rising consumer prices may reflect shifts by consumers to new higher‐priced products, mostly for durable and semi‐durable goods. I apply Bils’ (2009) methodology to newly available Canadian consumer price data for non‐shelter goods and services to estimate how price increases can be divided between quality growth and price inflation. I find that less than one third of observed price increases during model changeovers should be attributed to quality growth. This implies overall price inflation close to inflation measured by the official index. I conclude that, according to Bils’ methodology, the quality bias is not an important source of potential mismeasurement of CPI inflation in Canada.     

Reviews

Book reviewed in this article:
The Emergence of the Theory of the Firm from Adam Smith to Alfred Marshall. by Philip L. Williams
Trade Barriers Facing Developing Countries, by Alexander J. Yeats
The Pure Theory of International Trade and Distortions, by B. R. Hazari
The Condition of the People:Social Welfare in Australia 1900–197s. by Ronald Mendelsohn
Macro-economic Policy in Australia, 1972–1976, by Ainsley Jolley
Australia in the War (of 1939–194s:War Economy 1942–1945. by S. J. Butlin and C. B. Schedvin     

THE STOCK OF CONSUMER DURABLES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM: NEW ESTIMATES 1948–95

A modified version of the perpetual inventory model is applied to new data on consumers' expenditure in the United Kingdom to establish estimates of that part of personal sector wealth represented by the stock of consumer durables. Current and constant price estimates are provided at an aggregate and disaggregate level for the gross and net stock and for the imputed consumption income over the period 1948–95. The accuracy and consistency of the estimates are evaluated in the context of other approaches.     

The Montreal Gazette call loan rate, 1871–1907

Economic historians have assumed that the call loan market in Canada was insignificant before 1900. In this paper I present a monthly series for the call loan rate recorded daily by the Montreal Gazette between 1871 and 1907, which corresponds closely with the known post-1900 rate in 1900–07. Evidence from monthly bank returns further indicates that the magnitude of the domestic call loan market rivalled that of Canadian call loans in New York prior to 1907. The Montreal Gazette call loan series bears little relation to call loan series for New York and London, partly because the Montreal market was less centralized and less liquid.
Le taux sur prêts à vue du Montreal Gazette 1871–1907. Les historiens économiques ont présumé que le marché des prêts à vue était insignifiant au Canada avant 1900. Ce mémoire présente une série mensuelle des taux sur les prêts à vue publiée quotidiennement par la Montreal Gazette entre 1871 et 1907. Ce taux suit de près les données publiées par ailleurs après 1900, et ce pour toute la période de chevauchement des deux séries. Les renseignements recueillis dans les rapports mensuels des banques montrent que la taille de ce marché canadien se compare avec ce qui se passait à New York avant 1907. La série publiée par la Montreal Gazette n'a que peu de rapport avec celles de New York et Londres en partie parce que le marché de Montréal était moins centralisé et moins liquide.     

Forecasting demand for a newly introduced product using reservation price data and Bayesian updating

Forecasting demand during the early stages of a product's life cycle is a difficult but essential task for the purposes of marketing and policymaking. This paper introduces a procedure to derive accurate forecasts for newly introduced products for which limited data are available. We begin with the assumption that the consumer reservation price is related to the timing with which the consumer adopts the product. The model is estimated using reservation price data derived through a consumer survey, and the forecast is updated with sales data as they become available using Bayes's rule. The proposed model's forecasting performance is compared with that of benchmark models (i.e., Bass model, logistic growth model, and a Bayesian model based on analogy) using 23 quarters' worth of data on South Korea's broadband Internet services market. The proposed model outperforms all benchmark models in both prelaunch and postlaunch forecasting tests, supporting the thesis that consumer reservation price can be used to forecast demand for a new product before or shortly after product launch.     

The International Economy — A Survey

In most of the major world economies the hesitancy evident toward the end of last year has dissipated and the cyclical upswing in economic activity was well advanced by the middle of 1976, with the recovery showing particular strength in the first half of 1976 inthe United States and in West Germany. Even so industrial production had not yet returned, by the end of June 1976, to the previous cyclical peak in any of the major economies. With the OECD countries in aggregate sure to achieve a real growth rate of 4 per cent in 1976, and quite possibly an appreciably higher rate, the attention of many national and international policy makers is turning to ways of moderating the recovery so that inflationary pressures can be minimised. For in spite of the depth of the 1974/75 world recession the outlook for inflation remains threatening, much more so than at the corresponding stage of the previous cycle in 1972. In the twelve months to May 1976 consumer prices rose by 9.0 per cent in all OECD countries and this figure is disturbingly high for the trough of a serious recession. World commodity prices have risen about 35 per cent in dollar terms in the past year; as in the 1973–74 boom the major economies are now moving into an upswing simultaneously, thus compounding possible demand effects on inflation; business investment has fallen sharply in all countries during the recession, and only in the United States is a strong recovery in investment currently in evidence. The rate of growth of wages has however moderated in most countries, reflecting weak labour market conditions, lower consumer price increases and in countries such as United Kingdom and Canada the successful implementation of incomes policies. With output increasing, the rate of growth of unit wage costs has in most cases dropped sharply.     

PROPERTY MARKET AND THE MACROECONOMY OF MAINLAND CHINA: A CROSS REGION STUDY

Abstract.  This paper studies the nexus between the property market and macroeconomy of China in 1998–2004, using panel data models covering 31 provinces and major cities. The estimates suggest three main conclusions. First, there seemed to be a two-way linkage between property prices and GDP growth. Second, bank credit expansion did not seem to play an 'accelerating' role in property price inflation, although the latter is found to have contributed to bank credit increases in recent years. Third, property price growth may have deviated from fundamentals in coastal areas, as evidenced by a negative relationship between housing and rental prices.     

Is there the threshold effect of cigarette price on smoking prevalence? A cross-country panel data analysis

This article shows new cross-country evidences by empirically investigating the joint effects of cigarette price levels and joining the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) on smoking prevalence in 74 countries over the period of 2000, 2003, 2005 and 2006. We assessed cigarette price elasticity for three national income levels using different databases on cigarette price from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), demographic and socioeconomic country characteristics from the World Bank and adjusted smoking prevalence rates published by various yearly WHO reports on the global tobacco epidemic from 2000 to 2010. A panel threshold regression was used to capture the nonlinear effects that cigarette prices on smoking prevalence at the three national income levels endogenously determined by estimation. Our findings supported the evidence that joining the WHO FCTC would have a positive effect on reducing cross-country smoking prevalence, especially among countries with low- and medium-income levels. Moreover, some simulated results show that a price hike of 10% would reduce smoking prevalence in countries with national income levels equal to or less than US$1900 and by 7.2% in countries with national income levels between US$1900 and US$2510 more than those with national income levels that are higher than US$2510.     

REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article:
The Australian Wool Market, 1840–1900. By ALAN BARNARD.
Australian Banking (Third Edition). By J. K. GIFFORD, J. VIVIAN WOOD and A. J. REITSMA.
Minerals in the Development of Australia.
Land Utilization in Australia. (Third Edition.) By SIR S amuel W adham , R. K ent "W ilson and J oyce W ood .
Atlas of Australian Resources: Five maps with commentaries.
Early New Zealand. A Dependency of New South Wales 1788–1841. By E. J. TAPP.
Selected Studies of Migration Since World War II: Proceedings of the Thirty-fourth Annual Conference of the Millank Memorial Fund, held October 30–31 at the New York Academy of Medicine.
Population Growth and Economic Development in Low Income Countries: A Case Study of India's Prospects. By A. J. C oalb and E. M. H oover .
The Strategy of Economic Development. By A lbert O. H irschmak .
International Trade and Economic Growth. By H arry G. J ohnson .
The Economic Theory of Fiscal Policy. By BENT HANSEN.
Policy Against Inflation. By R. P. HABROD.
Business Enterprise: Its Growth and Organisation. By RONALD S. EDWARDS and HARRY TOWNSEND.     

Remittances and Relative Prices

Using Mexican data, this article analyzes the impact of the workers' remittances on the cross‐section distribution of prices as well as on the evolution of individual relative prices over time for 272 consumer items. The results suggest that there are important differences in the responses of relative prices to remittances according to various categories of these items. While the relative prices of a number of nontradable service items such as housing consistently rise, the relative prices of several durable items such as furniture tend to fall in response to the remittance shock. Furthermore, remittances explain substantial variation in prices for a large number of consumer durables and services at various time horizons. The relative price responses are more volatile over time for most food items and less volatile for nonfood and service items reflecting different degrees of price flexibility.     

Progressivity of the Commonwealth Personal Income Tax, 1917–1997

This article assesses changes in personal income tax progressivity since 1916–17. Before World War II, legislative action changed tax progressivity; after, declines mainly reflected tax policy inertia.     

Location matters: Estimating cluster premiums for prominent modern artists

This paper shows that ‘location matters’ in terms of premiums on creative clusters and peak ages. The analysis is based on the 214 most prominent modern visual artists born 1850-1945 and the art clusters of Paris and New York. Auction records of the past 20 years are used to estimate the value of artworks over an artist's career. The overall cluster premium for paintings produced in Paris and New York is found to be 11% and 43%, respectively; paintings made in Paris during the First World War have a premium of 14% while those produced between 1946 and 1975 have a premium of 27%. New York offers premiums for paintings produced there for all periods after the First World War, peaking at 74% between 1946 and 1975. When decomposing this premium, we find that quality rather than quantity of artists in the location is driving the results. It is argued that artists working in a cluster location reach a peak in the age-price profile of their work significantly earlier than artists working elsewhere.     

Consumer Ownership in Liberalized Electricity Markets. The Case of Denmark

The continuation of consumer ownership has been an important part of the Danish electricity reform from 1999. Consumer ownership refers to either a consumer co-operative or a municipal utility. Contrary to conventional wisdom, consumer ownership can be supported by solid arguments from modern economic theory of organization. These arguments are presented and confronted with both present and future situation in Denmark. The development of the electricity supply industry after the Second World War has emptied consumer ownership of much of its original content. Nowadays, most consumers consider their electric utility as the (monopoly) supplier of a good they demand and not as something they own. Therefore, obligatory consumer ownership as specified in the new Danish Electricity Act of 1999 cannot be relied on to guarantee security of supply and reasonable prices for small consumers     

What can we learn from a large border effect in developing countries?

Failure of the law of one price (LOP) in the short run is an empirical regularity. Recent research, using disaggregated price data for different cities across an international boundary, has shown that the variation of the prices in equidistant cities located in two different countries is systematically larger than that for the cities within the same country. Nontariff barriers and exchange rate variability are cited as the proximate causes of this systematic difference in consumer price variability. Results using data from developing countries with large nontariff barriers and more volatile exchange rate suggest that those claims are overemphasized.     

The Income, Savings, and Monetary Overhang of Soviet Households

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it reconstructs data on the income, expenditure, and savings of Soviet households during 1965–1989. Second, it estimates the magnitude of monetary overhang in the Soviet consumer market. The data reconstruction was made using unpublished archival material, i.e., Soviet family budget surveys. The magnitude of monetary overhang was estimated using the long-run solution and the VAR (vector autoregression) of the Soviet household savings function. The estimates suggest that the overhang amounted to 38% of household money balances in 1991 and that a 61% price adjustment would have been necessary to remove the monetary overhang of Soviet households at the time. J. Comp. Econom., December 1999, 27(4), pp. 644–668. University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester CO4 3SQ, United Kingdom.     

The potato's contribution to population and urbanization: evidence from a historical experiment

We exploit regional variation in suitability for cultivating potatoes, together with time variation arising from their introduction to the Old World from the Americas, to estimate the impact of potatoes on Old World population and urbanization. Our results show that the introduction of the potato was responsible for a significant portion of the increase in population and urbanization observed during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. According to our most conservative estimates, the introduction of the potato accounts for approximately one-quarter of the growth in Old World population and urbanization between 1700 and 1900. Additional evidence from within-country comparisons of city populations and adult heights also confirms the cross-country findings.     

REGIONAL GDP IN BRITAIN, 1871–1911: SOME ESTIMATES

The paper builds on a method proposed by Geary and Stark for estimating regional incomes in Victorian Britain. This is modified by using tax data to allocate non‐wage income across regions. The results suggest that the coefficient of variation of regional GDP per head was rising rapidly prior to World War I in similar fashion to the late 20th century such that its level in 1901 and 2001 was about the same. In both episodes of globalization there were big winners and big losers among British regions.     

竞争促进、市场扩张与消费者福利增进——基于我国移动语音通信市场的面板数据

利用2002—2008年我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)电信市场的面板数据,采用对数差分两阶段最小二乘法,估计了我国移动语音通信市场的Marshall需求函数,进而测算了我国移动语音通信市场的消费者福利变化。结果表明:2002—2008年期间我国移动语音通信市场的消费者福利经历了一个持续增加的过程,但消费者福利增加呈明显的减缓趋势;消费者福利的持续增进主要是竞争导致的市场不断扩张和价格持续下降的结果,而价格下降速度变慢导致消费者福利增加趋缓;与发达国家相比,我国移动语音通信服务的价格仍然明显偏高,因此可进一步降低价格来增加消费者福利。     

Testing the Link between Public Intervention and Food Price Variability: Evidence from Rice Markets in the Philippines

Abstract . A model of inter- and intra-annual food price variability is presented to study the impacts of government food-market interventions in the Philippines. A conceptually simple econometric model is described that provides a general method for testing the impact of government stock changes on prices at farmgate and retail levels. Monthly price and stock data for the period 1975–1992 are used to empirically measure the influence of Philippine government buffer-stock programs on seasonal and annual variability of producer and consumer rice prices. NFA stock changes are shown to have had no significant stabilizing influence on seasonal and annual price changes at the aggregate level.