城市化、FDI与经济增长间关系的实证分析——以北京市为例

利用1987—2011年北京的时间序列数据,采用单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果关系检验和脉冲函数分析等方法和模型,对城市化、FDI与经济增长三者间的长期和短期关系进行了检验和分析。结果表明:城市化与经济增长互为Granger因果关系;城市化与FDI也互为Granger因果关系;经济增长是FDI的Granger原因,但FDI不是经济增长的Granger原因的概率高达31.8%。     

城乡收入差距与寿险需求关系的协整分析

文章利用1980～2006年我国城乡收入差距和寿险密度的年度数据进行协整分析,并运用Granger因果关系实证检验了二者之间的关系.研究结果表明:无论长期还是短期,我国城乡收入差距都对寿险需求具有Granger因果关系,并由此提出了增加保险需求和缩小收入差距的政策措施建议.     

我国收入差距与经济增长的面板协整与因果关系研究

笔者运用最近发展起来的面板协整技术,分析了我国收入差距与经济增长的关系。研究结果表明,全国以及东中西部的收入差距与经济增长之间存在长期的稳定关系;尽管对于全国和东部地区,收入差距和经济增长的因果关系并不明显,但对于中部和西部,收入差距和经济增长之间存在长期和短期的因果关系。     

安徽省对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析

本文通过J-J协整检验、向量误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验的计量经济学方法,对1981-2005年间安徽省对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析研究,分别从长期和短期两个角度分析了安徽对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系和短期影响效应。研究表明,安徽省经济增长与进出口之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,进口对安徽经济的促进作用要远大于出口,进出口都不是经济增长的Granger原因,经济增长也不是进出口的Granger原因。     

中国能源消费、经济增长间协整关系和因果关系的实证研究——以电力行业为例

本文运用协整理论和Granger因果关系检验两种日益流行的计量经济分析技术,实证研究了我国电力消费与经济增长之间的协整关系和因果关系。通过协整分析我们建立了电力消费和GDP之间的协整关系和误差修正模型,分别描述电力消费与经济增长间的长期均衡关系和短期动态关系;Granger因果性检验表明,电力消费与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系。     

市场化程度、经济增长与行业间收入差距

文章采用2000—2011年省际面板数据,对市场化程度、经济增长与行业间收入差距间关系进行了平稳性和协整检验,发现这三者之间存在长期稳定关系。为了探究短期经济波动对长期均衡的影响,文内对面板模型进行了误差修正。实证结果显示,市场化程度对行业间收入差距有显著扩大作用,经济增长对行业间收入差距在不同地区有不同影响。市场化与经济增长交互项系数显著,说明在不同市场化程度下,经济增长对行业间收入差距影响不同。     

贸易开放与收入不平等——基于中国的实证研究

本文通过理论模型和现代计量经济学的研究方法,实证分析了中国的贸易开放与收入不平等之间的关系.结果显示,以基尼系数表示的中国收入差距的扩大与以对外贸易依存度表示的贸易开放之间存在着长期稳定的正向关系.但Granger因果关系检验显示中国的贸易开放不是收入差距扩大的原因.最后本文进一步分析了贸易开放影响收入不平等的主要原因和途径.     

金融发展与城乡收入差距关系的经验分析

现代金融发展理论的主流观点是金融发展对经济增长意义重大.按照这种理论逻辑,中国金融非均衡发展应该会产生显著的经济后果.文章基于VAR模型及其协整分析,利用Granger因果检验法,对中国1978～2002年间金融发展与城乡收入差距的关系作出实证研究.实证结果表明,金融发展与城乡收入差距关系存在着一种长期均衡关系;金融发展规模与城乡收入差距正相关且两者具有双向的Granger因果关系;金融发展效率与城乡收入差距负相关且两者也具有双向的Granger因果关系.文章的政策含义是,从解决金融发展非均衡问题上着手来缩小城乡收入差距是有现实意义的.     

能源消费与经济增长关系研究——以湖北省为例

在构建“资源节约型、环境友好型”双型社会的背景下,对能源消费与经济增长的关系进行探讨是必要的.本文将能源消费作为影响经济增长的独立因素,引入到Cobb-Douglas生产函数中,并建立新的三生产要素函数,结合1995-2014年湖北省的时间序列数据,建立误差修正模型,通过单位根检验、协整检验以及Granger因果关系检验,得出结论:一是湖北省经济增长与能源消费之间存在长期协整关系;二是湖北省经济增长与能源消费之间存在短期单向因果关系.     

经济适用房与高房价关系的实证分析——基于VAR模型

使用2005—2010年的月度数据对我国房价增长速度与经济适用房之间的关系进行实证分析。通过建立VAR模型,进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解,并运用协整检验和Granger检验,分析两者之间可能存在的长期和短期关系以及作用方向。研究结果表明:在短期,经济适用房对全国房价增速起正向推动作用,但推动力先增强后衰减,影响较小且会在10个月后消失;在长期,经济适用房与全国房价增速之间不存在长期均衡关系和Granger因果关系。     

The impact of financial development,economic growth,income inequality on poverty: evidence from India

This paper examines the impact of financial development, economic growth and income inequality on poverty in India from 1970 to 2015 by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure. The findings reveal a robust long-run relationship between financial development, economic growth, inequality and poverty. Results show that financial development and economic growth help in poverty reduction in India, whereas income inequality and inflation aggravate poverty. Empirical evidence of the Granger-causality test supports the presence of unidirectional causality from financial development and economic growth to poverty. Moreover, bidirectional causality exists between inequality and poverty. The present study provides evidence on which the policymakers may proceed with detailed investigation of how specific financial sector policies and interventions can be deployed as effective instruments for achieving favorable economic growth and income distribution. The study recommends that policies geared toward increasing financial development and economic growth should be adopted to reduce the high level of poverty and inequality currently prevailing in India.     

Human capital and income inequality in India: is there a non-linear and asymmetric relationship?

The article attempts to provide empirical evidence on the relationship between human capital and income inequality in India in a non-linear and asymmetric framework. To capture both long-run and short-run asymmetries, we have employed the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach using the relevant data from 1970 to 2016. Findings of the article suggest that education expansion acts as a major factor in reducing prevailing high income inequality, that is an increase in average years of schooling results in more equal distribution of income. In contrast, high economic growth, inflation and trade openness create unequal distribution of income. The asymmetric causality test results indicate that there is unidirectional causality running from female human capital, economic growth and inflation to income inequality. From a policy perspective, we suggest that education expansion should be used as a powerful tool to mitigate income inequality by emphasizing the quality of education. At the same time, policies geared towards social benefits, inclusive education, training for unskilled workers and price stability should be encouraged to attain fair income distribution in India.     

ECONOMIC FREEDOM AND INCOME INEQUALITY REVISITED: EVIDENCE FROM A PANEL ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

We investigate the causal relationship between income inequality and economic freedom using data from U.S. states over the period 1981 to 2004 within a panel error correction model framework. The results indicate bidirectional causality between income inequality and economic freedom in both the short and the long run. These results suggest that high income inequality may cause states to implement redistributive policies causing economic freedom to decline. As economic freedom declines, income inequality rises even more. In other words, it is quite possible for a state to get caught in a vicious circle of high income inequality and heavy redistribution. (JEL D63, H11)     

On the impact of innovation and inequality in economic growth

We present robust results on the empirical relationship among income inequality, innovation, and economic growth for a panel dataset of 74 countries over the period 1996–2014. We estimate pairwise causality tests to show that there is bidirectional causality between GDP per capita and R&D, while R&D causes the Gini index of income inequality, and it causes human capital. Allowing coefficients to be different across cross-sections of countries, we get in any case a pairwise bi-directionality. By dynamic panel data estimations, when regressing R&D on GDP per capita, we obtain a threshold value of 0.16% of R&D such that for values above it there is economic growth. While regressing R&D on the Gini index, we get a threshold of 0.10% of R&D above which, the income distribution begins to improve. Finally, we estimate a growth equation that depends on R&D, income inequality, and physical capital. We obtain two thresholds, one of 38.79 for the Gini (above which the economic growth decreases), and one of 0.06% for R&D such that above it, economic growth is rising.     

库兹涅茨假说可以解释中国的收入差距变化吗

本文利用中国的数据对经济增长与收入分配的关系进行了经验分析。分析结果没有对库茨涅兹的"倒U型假说"给予足够的支持。中国农村内部、城镇内部和城乡之间的收入差距及其变化特点有其自身的特点,需要从经济发展因素、经济体制转型的因素和政策因素上加以解释。     

收入不平等与经济增长：移动的库兹涅茨曲线*——新时期收入分配改革的思路与意义

准确判断收入不平等对经济增长的影响，对于客观评价中国各个阶段的收入分配制度改革尤为重要。本文在统一增长理论的框架下引入收入不平等因素，构建了一个人口数量、不平等和经济增长同时内生的理论模型，并利用CGSS数据构造收入不平等指标，使用中国省际非平衡面板数据进行经验检验。研究发现：收入不平等与经济增长之间呈现倒U型关系。更重要的是，随着经济发展水平的提高，倒U型曲线将逐渐向左移动，即最优的收入不平等程度随着经济发展水平的提高而逐渐降低。这一发现意味着改革开放以来，中国各个时期的收入分配制度改革均是在特定历史条件下的最优选择。本文的结论具有深刻的政策含义：为了提高经济增长率，需要进一步巩固“脱贫攻坚”成果，逐渐加大收入分配调节力度，使收入分配制度改革紧跟经济发展的步伐，根据经济发展水平不断缩小收入不平等程度。     

收入分配不平等、有效需求与经济增长——一个基于中国经济转型期的实证研究

本文从有效需求角度入手,探究中国经济转型期经济增长与收入分配不平等之间的关系,并运用中国1978-2005年间28个省市的面板数据,通过面板数据单位根检验、协整检验与误差修正模型,对中国经济增长与收入分配不平等、有效需求、劳动力、投资、教育以及收入分配不平等和有效需求交互影响之间的长期关系和短期关系进行了研究。结果显示,中国经济转型期经济增长与收入分配不平等、有效需求具有长期的均衡关系,收入分配不平等通过有效需求机制阻碍了经济增长,且在短期内效果也非常显著。     

ICT and income inequality: a cross-national perspective

The importance of information and communications technology (ICT) for economic growth and development is widely researched and seemingly well understood, but the effect of such investments on income inequality is less well documented. On the one hand, improvements in infrastructure are expected to expand economic opportunities for previously underserved populations. On the other hand, ICT growth may exacerbate inequality due to differential access and skill premiums. We use panel data from 109 countries during the period 2001–2014 to examine the empirical connection between ICT and income inequality in a cross-national context. Our results suggest that the effect of ICT on income inequality depends both on the specific type of ICT and on the measure of income inequality. In addition, the magnitude of ICT’s effect on income inequality is comparable to that of more traditional forms of economic infrastructure. Finally, we find that the association between ICT and income inequality is conditional on other economic and political characteristics.     

Social Exclusion and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation in European Economies

The aims of this article are to propose an overall index of social exclusion and to analyze its relationship with economic growth in European countries. We approach social exclusion as a multidimensional phenomenon by a three‐mode principal components analysis (Tucker3 model). This method is applied to estimate an indicator of social exclusion for 28 European countries between 1995 and 2010. The empirical evidence shows that in the short run: (1) Granger causality runs one way from social exclusion to economic growth and not the other way; (2) countries with a higher level of social exclusion have higher growth rates of real GDP per capita; and (3) social exclusion has a larger effect than income inequality on economic growth. The policy implication of our analysis is that social inclusion is not a source of economic growth in the short term.