战略联盟伙伴搜索、战略柔性与突破性创新的关系研究

战略联盟伙伴搜索打破了搜寻范围与知识结构对企业技术发展轨迹的束缚,是企业赢得竞争优势的重要来源。结合创新搜索理论和资源基础观,构建了战略联盟伙伴搜索、战略柔性与突破性创新的理论模型,研究发现:战略联盟伙伴搜索的不同维度对企业突破性创新均有显著正向影响;战略柔性对企业突破性创新有显著正向影响;战略柔性在战略联盟伙伴搜索和企业突破性创新之间起中介作用。     

战略联盟：发展企业核心竞争力的有效组织形式

战略联盟是对产业结构变革、竞争白热化或市场环境突变的一种战略上的反应，它能够使企业低成本且有效地获得各种战略要素，增强企业的核心能力；无论从交易费用理论、价值链理论还是资源能力论的角度分析，战略联盟都有其必要性。企业要建立战略联盟首先必须具备合作的资本一核心竞争力。     

国际战略联盟的设计与管理

以资源互补、知识与信息共享为基本特征的国际战略联盟，可使其成员企业进一步面向国际市场，在更广泛的范围内充分利用企业外部资源，发挥企业优势，提高竞争能力。战略联盟的组建与运行，必须对联盟伙伴的选择、联盟的组织实施、联盟的绩效考评及联盟的改进或解散进行认真的设计与管理。战略联盟对国际企业的吸引力是相当大的，但是从国际战略联盟自身的发展历程看，往往具有内在的不稳定性，风险也较大。例如：合作伙伴可能存在沟通困难，盟友之间可能在企业管理方面存在分歧，即使有些赢利的联盟也可能由于利益冲突而最终破裂。因此，成功的联盟不仅要有构建联盟的决心，而且需要对联盟进行精心设计与有效管理。     

企业声誉对战略联盟伙伴选择的影响机理研究

通过评价目标企业的声誉，选择具有良好声誉的企业作为战略联盟伙伴，是建立成功联盟的关键。本文运用非对称信息市场理论、博弈论、交易费用理论和资源基础理论对此进行了解释，为基于企业声誉选择战略联盟伙伴提供了理论依据。     

略论供应链战略联盟的内涵、类型与管理

文章通过考察供应链管理和战略联盟产生和发展过程 ,从资源关系、联盟目的和基于价值链的企业关系三个方面界定供应链战略联盟的内涵。然后 ,根据组织学习的不同动机 ,对供应链战略联盟进行分类讨论 ,并在此基础上指出联盟管理应注意的事项。     

并购还是联盟:企业外部成长战略的选择

并购和联盟是通过获取外部资源实现企业成长的两种战略途径。在当今动态复杂的环境下如何进行联盟和并购的抉择已成为企业越来越重要的战略决策。从经济学的交易成本理论视角和战略管理的资源理论、知识理论和动态能力理论视角对此问题作了详细探讨，并指出，相对于其它理论而言，动态能力理论为企业外部成长战略决策的理论研究者和实践者提供了一个更好的理论框架。     

研发联盟和研发并购的决策框架研究

研发联盟和研发并购是两种重要的企业外部成长方式，分析了交易成本理论、规模经济理论、资源基础理论和战略选择理论在进行研发联盟和研发并购决策时的作用，建立了一个基于动态能力理论的企业研发联盟和研发并购的决策框架。     

企业战略联盟理论的新发展:一个综述

企业战略联盟是最近十几年来出现的一种组织形式，而且有不断加速发展的趋势。在战略联盟不断涌现的同时，战略联盟又以很大的速度和频率在解体和消失。如何理解和解释战略联盟这种组织现象，10多年来一直是学术界的一个难题。对于战略联盟现象，学术界提出了多种理论框架，这些理论框架之间存在较大的分歧。     

企业战略联盟治理结构的选择

从交易成本和资源的角度研究战略联盟治理结构的选择问题,在交易成本理论基础上分析了影响股权合资联盟与契约联盟选择的因素。通过利用资源的观点解释如何在契约联盟中进一步选择交易联盟和组合联盟,对我国企业如何选择战略联盟治理结构提出建议。     

从关系资本理论看战略联盟的伙伴关系管理

随着战略联盟在全世界范围内的兴起，战略联盟伙伴关系管理日益重要。本根据战略联盟的关系资本理论，分析了战略联盟伙伴关系管理的经济学意义在于促进获得与联盟伙伴的关系性资源，促进战略联盟关系资本的形成、维持与增值，从而促进关系性租金的获得，最终增强联盟绩效，形成企业的独特竞争优势与能力。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.