中国地区宏观金融社会核算矩阵的编制

本文从突出金融部门角度 ,编制了中国地区宏观金融社会核算矩阵 ,该项研究对于决策者和研究人员全面了解和分析地区经济状况 ,提供了科学的经济数据库。首先 ,论文从宏观经济循环角度 ,在分析了金融部门和地区部门的特点基础上 ,研究了中国地区宏观金融社会核算矩阵的结构和内容 ;其次 ,以《江苏投入产出表》( 2 0 0 0 )和《江苏统计年鉴》为基础 ,结合大量调查 ,编制了江苏宏观金融社会核算矩阵 ;最后 ,利用跨熵 (crossentropy ,CE)技术 ,对矩阵进行了平衡处理     

AN AXIOMATIC APPROACH TO NATIONAL ACCOUNTING: AN OUTLINE

This article deals in an axiomatic manner with problems of definition, classification, and measurement in the national accounts. It argues that the elementary units which must be classified in national accounting are economic objects (real and financial), rather than transactions. The article defines briefly a set of postulates, and shows that the structure of a simple system of national accounting can be derived from them. There are twenty postulates—certain of them establishing basic categories such as sector, time, economic object, value (price); others establishing relations between categories (for example the notion of ownership); and others describing operations in which economic objects can be involved, such as production, final consumption, change of ownership, and change of debtor and creditor (in the case of financial objects). It is shown that the system of postulates makes it possible to consider a large number of accounting concepts (flows or stocks) as classes (baskets) of real objects (e.g., exports, real capital) or financial objects (e.g., payments, total debt of a sector). These concepts can be defined without reference to prices, although prices are necessary to measure them. Other concepts cannot be defined in this way in this system of postulates, for example value added, foreign balance, saving, net worth. However, it is possible to define magnitudes of the latter type and measure them in terms of value: for example, value added can be defined as the difference between the value of receipts and the value of outlays of a sector. In this way it is possible to establish algebraic relations among the national accounting concepts. (This article is a summary of certain parts of the doctoral thesis of the author, published in Norwegian in 1955.)     

An iteration process for calculating labour market flows

This article presents a technique for calculating labour market flows, given labour market stocks of workers and nonemployed agents at the beginning and at the end of a certain period of time. I build a system of equations that define the stocks as a product of the flows. For a vector of stocks Y and a vector of flows X, the system of equations is defined as Y = A*X. However, the system is not solvable (the flows cannot be identified) due to singularity of the matrix A. I suggest an iteration process that enables us to solve the system and identify the flows given a chosen negligible deviation from the true flows.     

AN AXIOMATIC APPROACH TO NATIONAL ACCOUNTING: AN OUTLINE

Reprinted from The Review of Income and Wealth 12: 179–189 (1966) This article deals in an axiomatic manner with problems of definition, classification, and measurement in the national accounts. It argues that the elementary units which must be classified in national accounting are economic objects (real and financial), rather than transactions. The article defines briefly a set of postulates, and shows that the structure of a simple system of national accounting can be derived from them. There are twenty postulates–certain of them establishing basic categories such as sector, time, economic object, value (price); others establishing relations between categories (for example the notion of ownership); and others describing operations in which economic objects can be involved, such as production, final consumption, change of ownership, and change of debtor and creditor (in the case of financial objects). It is shown that the system of postulates makes it possible to consider a large number of accounting concepts (flows or stocks) as classes (baskets) of real objects (e.g., exports, real capital) or financial objects (e.g., payments, total debt of a sector). These concepts can be defined without reference to prices, although prices are necessary to measure them. Other concepts cannot be defined in this way in this system of postulates, for example value added, foreign balance, saving, net worth. However, it is possible to define magnitudes of the latter type and measure them in terms of value: for example, value added can be defined as the difference between the value of receipts and the value of outlays of a sector. In this way it is possible to establish algebraic relations among the national accounting concepts. (This article is a summary of certain parts of the doctoral thesis of the author, published in Norwegian in 1955.)     

Multiplicity in general financial equilibrium with portfolio constraints

This paper explores the role of portfolio constraints in generating multiplicity of equilibrium. We present a simple financial market economy with two goods and two households, households who face constraints on their ability to take unbounded positions in risky stocks. Absent such constraints, equilibrium allocation is unique and is Pareto efficient. With one portfolio constraint in place, the efficient equilibrium is still possible; however, additional inefficient equilibria in which the constraint is binding may emerge. We show further that with portfolio constraints cum incomplete markets, there may be a continuum of equilibria; adding incomplete markets may lead to real indeterminacy.     

数字金融能否缓解企业融资困境——效用识别、特征机制与监管评估

针对缓解企业融资困境的现实要求,本文采用2011-2017年沪深两市A股上市企业数据,从数字金融视角切入,深入考察其与企业融资困境的关系。研究结果显示:数字金融发展对于缓解企业融资约束至关重要,随着数字金融发展水平的提高,这种缓解效应将得到显著加强;在考虑到企业自身属性的条件下,数字金融发挥的融资缓解效果表现出明显的异质性;进一步地,数字金融不仅能通过改善融资结构和市场化水平等宏观路径缓释企业融资约束,也能借助降低企业融资费用和杠杆水平等微观路径缓解融资约束;特别地,相较于数字金融弱监管环境,在强监管环境下数字金融的融资缓解效应更强,同时也更有益于疏通宏微观传导机制。为此,应围绕数字金融政策扶持、金融领域创新赋能、监管科技体系建设等方面内容,重点关注数字金融如何提升金融服务实体经济效能,有效纾解企业融资困境。     

A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE MEASUREMENT OF WELL-BEING

The conceptual framework of the system specifies that societal resources are limited by two basic factors: the amount of available human time, and the stock of wealth inherited from the past. Wealth is defined very broadly to cover not only the conventional tangible capital assets familiar to economists, but also intangible human and other capital assets, stocks of organizational capital reflected by networks of social support systems (the family, the neighbourhood), stocks of environmental assets (the sun and air), and stocks of socio-political assets (security, freedom of choice). Human time covers market work, household production, leisure, and biological maintenance. Human time and capital stocks are used within households to produce a variety of tangible and intangible outputs, and these outputs in turn are used to produce a variety of satisfactions (utilities) or to augment stocks of capital, or both. The basic sources of well-being in the system are ultimately of two types: well-being is produced as a consequence of the intrinsic benefits from all activities engaged in by individuals, which is to say that people have preferences over the way they spend their time; secondly, people derive utilities from the existence of various stocks or states of society, and these satisfactions are independent of the way in which time is used. The satisfactions associated with flows of goods are subsumed by satisfactions derived from activities associated with those goods. The system contains a set of linkages among the various parts: inputs of goods and time are used to produce tangible household output, using the familiar notions of household production functions and constrained optimization; tangible household products, which are intermediate in the system, are used in conjunction with human time to produce direct satisfactions or to augment household capital stocks; both household (micro) and societal (macro) capital stocks are linked directly to psychological well-being; household activities are linked directly to flows of satisfactions, termed process benefits in the system; household preferences and values relating to policy variables are linked to public policies of various sorts, and policies modify the constraints and opportunities relevant for household decisions. The system also has dynamic linkages. Modifications of household or public stocks produce impacts on future flows of well-being; satisfactions from activities may adapt to the existence of constraints, hence changes in constraints can modify preferences and subsequently modify activities; and household behavior has a life-cycle dimension which is inherently dynamic.     

Financial Market Data Versus Accounting Data: Which Better Explains Stock Returns?

This paper presents the comparison of how financial market and accounting data affect stock prices and returns. The goal was to ascertain whether financial information or accounting data dominate in evaluating stock prices. Most valuation techniques used by firms are based on models using either accounting variables (earnings, book value, cash flows, research and development expenses) or financial market data (e.g. beta, market value, interest). The answer is of great importance for valuators and investors as it will help them focus on the most important variables and make better valuations and choices. This answer is also important for accounting standard setters as the preferred method will serve as an indicator for the quality of financial statements and their importance to users. The paper contributes to the existing literature in the fields of value relevance of accounting information and firm valuation and accounting standards (e.g. International Financial Reporting Standards, United States General Accepted Accounting Principles). To answer this question, share prices were estimated based on financial data using the capital asset pricing model and for accounting data, using Ohlson’s model. The results were tested for both methodologies by comparing estimated share prices with actual ones. The greater the correlation between the two variables the better the explanatory power of the model. The focus was on S&P 500 firms for the period 2002–2017.

     

USES OF FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS IN MONETARY ANALYSIS

Developments in economic theory have in many ways enhanced the opportunity for using financial accounts data in monetary analysis. This is true in such areas as the role of assets, the development of portfolio choice theory, the demand for money, and the behavior of intermediaries. At the same time, theory has increasingly emphasized behavioral relationships. These developments give rise to new data needs. An inquiry was addressed to some 25 specialists, whose responses illustrate these needs. Some of the desired data are “more of the same,” such as more sectoring, more detail on financial instruments, data on stocks as well as flows. Some data needs, reflecting behavioral theorizing, point beyond traditional financial accounts data and call for maturity distributions, interest rates, rates of return on equities and real assets, and the parameters of their frequency distributions. The degree of economic development and the degree of openness are found to be important determinants of the kind of data to be sought and employed in particular countries. Public policy is finding increasing use for financial accounts data in coordinating the flow of financial resources with the planning of physical investment. Nevertheless, many policy purposes call for more detailed data than can be provided by an integrated system. This has led to a selective use of data sources outside the financial accounts. Builders of financial models, likewise, have found it preferable to work with more flexible data selected ad hoc than with integrated financial accounts. Hope of applying the techniques of modern model building to financial accounts data, such as econometric estimation of a flow of funds table, or its conversion into an input-output matrix, seems tenuous for the time being. Thus, financial accountants, competing with financial model builders for the attention of theorists and policy makers, must broaden the scope of their data in the hope that there is room for the growth of both disciplines.     

Financial flows and economic growth in developing countries

This paper assesses the impact of financial flows and their composition on the real exchange rate and on economic growth for a sample of low- and middle-income countries over the period of 1980–2012. Financial flows can directly support economic growth by relaxing constraints on domestic resources, but can also indirectly weaken growth through appreciation of the real exchange rate. We use the generalized method of moments (GMM) for dynamic panel. Results show that net financial flows affect economic growth both directly and indirectly: (i) a one percent increase in total financial flows appreciates the real exchange rate by 0.5 percent; (ii) the real exchange rate appreciation effect of remittances is twice the effect of aid and ten times greater than the effect of Foreign Direct Investments; (iii) financial flows stimulate economic growth regardless of the development level. An increase of $10 per capita financial flows leads to a gain of 0.08 points of annual growth. This gain amounts to 0.15 when we control for the negative impact of the real exchange rate. Instability of market-oriented flows, such as FDI and portfolio investments, exacerbates instability of the economic growth rate.     

Understanding co-operative innovative activity: evidence from four European countries

We investigate co-operative innovative activity in four major European countries, France, Germany, Spain and the UK, using internationally comparable firm-level data for manufacturing and service sectors. We examine the roles of knowledge flows, cost- and risk-sharing and public financial support in firms’ decisions to collaborate. Our results suggest that firms which place greater value on external information flows are more likely to co-operate with the research base than with other firms and that firms facing appropriability problems are more likely to co-operate with the research base and with upstream and downstream firms than with direct competitors. We find evidence for Spain to suggest that firms collaborate to overcome risks and financial constraints. We also find that receipt of public support is positively related to undertaking collaborative innovation. In line with the focus of policy, this relationship is strongest for co-operation with the research base.     

Remittances,financial development,and growth

Despite the increasing importance of remittances in total international capital flows, the relationship between remittances and growth has not been adequately studied. This paper studies one of the links between remittances and growth, in particular how local financial sector development influences a country's capacity to take advantage of remittances. Using a newly-constructed dataset for remittances covering about 100 developing countries, we find that remittances boost growth in countries with less developed financial systems by providing an alternative way to finance investment and helping overcome liquidity constraints. This finding controls for the endogeneity of remittances and financial development, does not depend on the particular measure of financial sector development used, and is robust to a number of robustness tests, including threshold estimation. We also provide evidence that there could be an investment channel trough which remittances can promote growth especially when the financial sector does not meet the credit needs of the population.     

Private consumption behaviour, liquidity constraints and financial deregulation in France: a nonlinear analysis

This paper examines the effect of financial deregulation on consumption expenditure in France during the period 1970–1993. A nonlinear model for consumption which allows for liquidity constraints through a time-varying parameter dependent on a proxy for financial deregulation is estimated using nonlinear instrumental variables. It is concluded that in France financial deregulation has significantly reduced liquidity constraints faced by consumers, allowing a higher percentage of the population to smooth consumption over time. Evidence is also provided that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is not significantly different from zero at conventional nominal levels of significance. First version received: January 1997/final version received: May 1999     

THE SOCIAL ACCOUNTS FROM A CONSUMER'S POINT OF VIEW

After a short introduction, the first part of this paper (section 3 through 9) provides an outline of the revisions proposed to the System of National Accounts (SNA) of the United Nations which are now under discussion. These proposals were considered by an expert group at the end of 1964 and were accepted by the Statistical Commission of the United Nations in 1965 as the basis for further work on the extension and revision of the SNA. The aim of the revision is to provide a fully integrated system of accounts and balance sheets in which input-output, flows-of-funds and sector balance sheets are incorporated in a generalised accounting framework. Whereas the real side of the economy has been studied analytically in many countries (input-output analysis, demand analysis and so on) much less experience is available on modelling the financial side of the economy, apart from econometric work on saving behaviour, which is fairly widespread. Accordingly, the second part of the paper (sections 10 through 14) contains a discussion of financial model-building in which a number of possibilities are explored. The final topic discussed (section 15) is demographic accounting, by which is meant a framework for recording and analysing human, as opposed to economic, flows and stocks. The development of such a system arose out of the emphasis placed by the expert group on the integration of demographic and economic information.     

论国际财务报告准则变迁：均衡实现及其成本约束

会计准则国际趋同是在承认世界无政府状态不可能彻底改变的前提下，倡议在会计领域建立起约束性的制度性安排或规范，以实现国际会计经济关系的有序发展。国际财务报告准则可以视为适一类规定国际会计行为的职责、限制行动、以及行为者持久预期的，并具有权威性、制约性和关联性的一组正式或非正式的规则网络，其伴随着国际会计的秩序化、组织化、制度化而发展起来，常常被视为国际会计经济关系中的进程性因素。国际会计的发展历程表明，国际财务报告准则的每一次发展都是一次制度变迁，从不均衡到均衡再到不均衡，国际会计准则的变迁就是这样周而复始地运动着，通过效率分析和成本约束分析每一次变迁，促使国际财务报告准则向着最终的“帕累托最优”状态逼近。     

Imputation of Missing Values in the Fundamental Data: Using MICE Framework

Revolutionary developments in the field of big data analytics and machine learning algorithms have transformed the business strategies of industries such as banking, financial services, asset management, and e-commerce. The most common problems these firms face while utilizing data is the presence of missing values in the dataset. The objective of this study is to impute fundamental data that is missing in financial statements. The study uses ‘Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations’ (MICE) framework by utilizing the interdependency among the variables that wholly comply with accounting rules. The proposed framework has two stages. The initial imputation is based on predictive mean matching in the first stage and resolving financial constraints in the second stage. The MICE framework allows us to incorporate accounting constraints in the imputation process. The performance tests conducted on the imputed dataset indicate that the imputed values for the 177 line items are good and in line with the expectations of subject matter experts.

     

Does accrual accounting alter fiscal policy decisions? - Evidence from Germany

Many governments have replaced traditional cash-based accounting with some form of accrual-based accounting system. However, empirical evidence on the effects of the public accounting system on fiscal policy is scarce. Following rules by the federal states, municipalities in Germany have adopted accrual-based accounting systems gradually. By exploiting variations over time and across states I find no evidence for an impact on the overall financial balance. However, my findings suggest that accrual accounting has altered the structure of the budget. Revenues from the sales of non-financial assets have decreased significantly. This supports the hypothesis that municipalities had used these one-off measures before to meet fiscal constraints. Using data on entities controlled by the municipalities, the analysis provides no evidence for repercussions on these public funds, institutions or enterprises.     

Does Financial Sector Development Augment Cross-Border Capital Flows?

ABSTRACT

The sharp increase in volatility of capital flows in recent years has resulted in many countries altering the regulations governing the flow of foreign capital only to find such changes having a limited impact. We postulate that one reason for the limited effectiveness of such changes in regulations is the level of financial sector development in the country. As a country enhances its level of financial sector development, it also develops more and more sophisticated financial instruments. The more advanced the domestic financial instruments are, and the deeper is the integration of the domestic financial markets with the world markets, the greater is the likelihood of developing strategies to bypass capital account management measures. In this paper, we use various empirical techniques to identify the impact of financial sector development on capital flows, after accounting for regulatory regime. The empirical results indicate that there is a threshold effect in the financial sector development capital flow relationship. In particular, financial sector development augments greater integration with global capital flows only above a threshold level. Below the threshold level we find financial development reduces the extent of integration with global capital markets.     

Returns of Small Growth Stocks: An Empirical Analysis

I investigate the mean reversion tendency of small growth stocks. Using a carefully articulated research design employing established and empirically tested principles, my findings should support or refute the anecdotal evidence that small growth stocks make superior investments. The primary motivation for the study springs from the documented differential preference among investors for value and growth stocks. Despite evidence that value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks, investors retain strong interest in growth stocks. Yet in examining the performance of Business Week’s (BW), smaller capitalization companies (called “Hot Growth Companies”) with respect to the overall financial market, Bauman et al. [2002] found positive excess returns in the pre-publication period but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. A limitation of their study is that their analyses relied on only three criteria: sales, BW rank and return on capital, which do not represent completely a firm’s financial health. I replicate Bauman et al.’s study but use a more robust and representative variable set to test the mean reversal hypothesis — Forbes’ financial criteria — and I focus on six variables. In the current study, I look at 4,200 companies listed in Forbes from 1980 to 2000. The results of the expanded study substantiate Bauman et al.’s [2002] study showing that there are positive excess returns in the pre-publication period, but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. An expanded future study will look at five additional variables to see if they make a significant difference on the effects of the returns of small growth stocks.     

Imperfect financial integration and asymmetric information: competing explanations of the home bias puzzle?

Abstract This paper shows that imperfect financial integration and informational asymmetries are not competing theories but rather complementary ideas to a single explanation of the home bias puzzle. We develop a rational expectations model of asset prices with investors that face informational constraints and find that informational advantages arise endogenously as a response to small financial frictions. We also present empirical evidence that (i) international financial frictions are correlated to observed patterns of US investors’ attention and that (ii) the attention US investors allocate to foreign stocks helps explain home bias towards those countries, even after controlling for financial integration levels.