Which drives abnormal returns,over- or under-reaction? Studies applying longitudinal analysis

This article combined both cross-sectional and time-series longitudinal analysis to identify that factor anomalies are driven by either over-reaction or under-reaction. The basic principle is, first, use a factor to form 10 portfolios in the t quarter, then observe the average prices and returns of the 10 portfolios for the previous four quarters and for the following four quarters as well. Samples in this study contain all stocks listed in the US from 1990 to 2010. The empirical evidence shows that the reason for the abnormal returns of value (book-to-price ratios, earnings-to-price ratios, sales-to-price ratios), scale and liquidity factors is over-reaction. Meanwhile, the reason for the abnormal returns of growth factors (return on equity, return on assets and revenue growth rate) is under-reaction. The results provide significant policy implications. The anomaly returns of the value, scale and liquidity factors last longer and are more appropriate to be employed for long-run investment while the growth factors are better suited for short-run investment. Furthermore, a more profitable stock-selection strategy can be formed by simultaneously considering the above two types of factors to capture both of these two sources of anomaly returns.     

Hans Singer's model of the severity of recessions

This paper draws attention to the innovative but neglected workof Hans Singer on the dynamics of unemployment. Influenced byKeynes, in the late 1930s Singer enquired into the relationshipbetween the inflow into unemployment—resulting primarilyfrom (involuntary) separations from employment—and thesize of the resultant fluctuations in the level of unemployment.His focus was on the determinants of the severity—measuredin terms of how far unemployment rises—of recessions.We illustrate his approach by looking at quarterly data forthe claimant count and its associated inflow and outflow inthe UK over the period 1989–2003, a period which includesone major recession episode. In addition to drawing attentionto Singer's ideas, the paper also extends his model by takinginto account recent empirical evidence on the behaviour of oneof the key variables in his model. We argue that, with thisextension, Singer's elegant and parsimonious model of unemploymentdynamics is a useful complement to Keynes's ideas on the fluctuationsin aggregate demand and output, and is of contemporary relevance.     

国际资本流动、经济扭曲与宏观稳定--当前经济增长态势分析

本文针对当前中国所面临的资本流动新格局(即大量非FDI流入) ,分析了国际资本流动引起宏观不稳定的机制,以及通过对冲与资本管制方式应对资本流动冲击的局限。论文的核心是引入经济扭曲概念,建立了带扭曲因素的资本流动与宏观稳定模型,强调扭曲的存在会使波动加剧。因此,为应对资本流动新格局,政策当局需要尽快完善非FDI监控体系、矫正各种经济扭曲,并促使宏观调控模式由数量型向价格型转变     

美国量化宽松货币政策影响及中国对策

随着金融危机的不断蔓延和影响的逐渐深化,美国在采取第一轮和第二轮量化宽松货币政策失效后,还可能采取第三轮量化宽松货币政策来稳定和刺激经济。此种极端货币政策引发多米诺骨牌效应,并将对中国经济产生深远影响。对此,文章从量化宽松货币政策产生的机理出发,在着重分析美国量化宽松货币政策对中国经济可能造成影响的基础上,提出中国所应采取的应对策略,以减缓量化宽松货币政策对中国经济可能产生的不利影响。     

基于知识流动视角的跨国公司研发国际化的国外研究述评

随着全球化的深入发展,跨国公司研发国际化成为学者们研究的热点。从知识流动的视角开展研究,将研发国际化的知识流动分为内部知识流动和外部知识流动,分别对这两种不同范围的知识流动的国外研究现状进行了综述,分析了相关研究存在的不足,并提出了未来需要重点关注的几个研究方向。     

国际资本流动对中国货币政策影响的实证研究

在开放经济的"三元冲突"中,中国选择了固定汇率,较严格的资本管制和较大的货币政策独立性,即用少量货币政策独立性的丧失换取有限度的资本流动.但在这种组合下,随着我国资本流动规模的扩大,货币政策独立性也将进一步丧失.对于中国,货币政策的自主权至关重要,除非有能力继续维持更严格的资本管制,我国必须逐步扩大汇率的浮动区间.     

Is it the wage premium that targets worker turnovers?

The literature on FDI shows that there exists a wage premium that multinational enterprises (MNEs) pay to local workers and link this to a technology spillover argument. The MNEs pay higher wages to prevent worker turnovers and technology leakages. Literature relates the wage premium aspect of FDI using worker mobility data and uses worker turnovers and the technology spillover argument. We relate stock options in the FDI context of worker mobility and find in a simplified framework that the turnover of workers would depend on the relative payments of stock options.     

EU Emission Allowances and the stock market: Evidence from the electricity industry

This paper constitutes - to our best knowledge - the first econometric analysis on stock market effects of the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Our results suggest that EU Emission Allowance (EUA) price developments matter to the stock performance of electricity firms: EUA price changes and stock returns of the most important European electricity corporations are shown to be positively related. This effect does not work asymmetrically, so that stock markets do not seem to react differently to EUA appreciations in comparison to depreciations. The carbon market effect is shown to be both time- and country-specific: It is particularly strong for the period of EUA market shock in early 2006, and differs with respect to the countries where the electricity corporations analysed are headquartered. Stock market reactions to EUA volatility could not be shown.     

Stock Characteristics,Investor Type,and Market Myopia

This paper investigates the role of stock characteristics and investor type in market myopia. Using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to control for endogeneity, we obtain evidence indicating that market myopia is greater among stocks that are relatively hard-to-value and hard-to-arbitrage, and find this conclusion to be robust to the choice of proxy for these characteristics. We also obtain a significantly negative relationship between institutional ownership and market myopia, due to the former acting as informed traders who exploit mispricing created by individual traders. It is important to note that the impact of their role becomes significant only when they have a sizeable share in firm ownership, as is the case of UK mutual funds and pension funds and Spanish banks.     

国际短期资本流动对我国经济的影响

本文在介绍国际短期资本流动概念的基础上,总结了国际短期资本流入我国的可能渠道,尤其是隐性的与非法的流入渠道。针对国际短期资本流动对我国宏观经济可能带来的影响,本文提出了加强风险监管力度,构建宏观层面的风险管理框架;建立有效的间接监管机制以及适当的预警机制;加强与各国政府在监管方面的合作;发展直接融资渠道等若干政策建议。     

属性重要程度的测量方法及比较研究

属性重要程度的测量对于数据库的压缩和综合评价都是非常重要的。属性重要程度的测量根据数据库形式的不同有不同方法：粗糙集理论、信息增益技术；在单向有序列联资料下的以秩效应为标准的测量方法和改进的秩和法。改进的秩和法不仅分析了属性的重要程度，而且其结果还可以进行多方面的统计分析。具有较高的实用价值。     

我国上市公司财务频繁舞弊的症结研究

通过对我国上市公司以增发新股为目的的财务舞弊现象进行分析，我们发现，大股东不仅是舞弊收益的获得者，而且还是舞弊通道的制造者，而大股东的存在又是股票流通性不够的结果。因此，非流通股的存在是我国上市公司财务舞弊的症结所在。     

中国各省区市创业板上市公司分布与GDP的关系分析

分别计量分析了各省区市创业板上市公司的数量、总市值、总利润、平均市盈率与各省区市GDP总量和人均值的关系,发现创业板上市公司的数量、总市值的区域分布主要与各区域的GDP总量和人均值有较大的关系,而创业板上市公司总利润、平均市盈率与GDP总量和人均值的关系强度较弱。创业板上市公司的上市数量在各省区市之间的分配,可能主要不是依赖于各创业型公司的质量。有计划成为创业板上市公司的企业,若注册在GDP总量或人均值比较靠前的东部省份,其成功上市的概率更高。     

How do employee training and knowledge stocks affect product innovation?

The main purpose of this paper is to explore how interactions of knowledge flows and knowledge stocks could shape firms’ innovative performance. Knowledge flows are measured on the grounds of human resource training practices while different levels and forms of knowledge stocks (i.e. educational attainment, exporting activity, and firm age) are considered. We make use of two-period panel probit regressions and a rich data survey of the 524 largest Greek manufacturing firms conducted in two waves (2011 and 2013). Our findings suggest that the beneficial effects of knowledge flows strengthen when knowledge stocks accumulated by employees’ education and firm age are low. When knowledge stocks are limited, knowledge flows can act as a bridge for product innovation. On the contrary, when knowledge stocks are high, higher investments in knowledge flows may lead to diminishing returns and, thus, to decreased innovation performance beyond a certain point.