汇率低估与中国经济结构问题

自1994年以来,我国人民币汇率基本保持不变,相对于我国经济强劲的增长势头和外汇储备大幅增长的现实,这种汇率稳定的状况未能反映我国经济发展的实质,汇率低估问题成为目前理论界争论的一个焦点。尽管汇率低估有利于扩大出口、拉动经济增长,但长期实施固定汇率制导致的汇率低估,也会加剧我国经济结构的畸形发展,破坏产业结构的协调性,使消费需求的增长受到限制,最终影响到国民收入水平的提高。解决这一问题,必须逐步形成有管理的浮动汇率制度,使汇率制度适应国内经济结构调整的需要,加快国民经济结构调整的步伐。一、对我国现行汇率制度的再…     

企业与会计准则制定方关系质量的维度

企业是会计准则的执行者,会计准则执行质量如何,直接影响财务报告质量.而会计准则的执行质量受多方面因素的影响,企业与会计准则制定方的关系质量会影响会计准则的执行质量.广泛应用于关系营销和供应链管理中的关系质量理论同样适合于研究企业与会计准则制定方的关系.信任、满意、承诺、权威、关系稳固性和会计准则质量是企业与会计准则制定方关系质量维度.     

Impact of oil price shocks on output,inflation and the real exchange rate: evidence from selected ASEAN countries

This article analyses the impact of oil price shocks on real output, inflation and the real exchange rate in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia (ASEAN-5) using a Structural VAR model. The cointegration tests indicate that the macroeconomic variables of these countries are cointegrated and share common trends in the long run. The impulse response functions reveal that oil price fluctuations do not impact the ASEAN-5 economies in the long run and much of its effect is absorbed within five to six quarters. The variance decomposition results further assert that with a few exceptions oil price shocks do not explain a significant variation in any of the variables under consideration. We also identify a very unique pattern of response to oil price fluctuations between Malaysia and Singapore and between the Philippines and Thailand. The pairs exhibit a high degree of similarity in their responses; they do not share any commonalities across the group.     

The impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between the US and Thailand

The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows continues to occupy the international finance literature. More recent studies have deviated from the traditional approach of using aggregate trade flows and have employed trade data at commodity level. This study investigates the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows of 118 US exporting industries to Thailand and 41 US importing industries from Thailand. We find that exchange rate uncertainty has short-run effects on the trade flows of most industries. In the long-run, the main determinants of the trade flows are the level of economic activity in both countries.     

EMS exchange rate expectations and time-varying risk premia

In this paper we examine exchange risk premia employing a survey dataset of EMS exchange rates. We are able to test a risk premium model directly, i.e. without having to rely on the rational expectations assumption. Our results indicate that time-varying risk premia are present in almost all cases and that a GARCH-in-mean specification for the premium is often appropriate.     

Precious metals,oil and the exchange rate: contemporaneous spillovers

We investigate the contemporaneous spillovers among precious metals, crude oil and the US$ exchange rate. We contend that conventional reduced-form vector autoregressive (VAR) models based on lead/lag relations do not fully capture the interactions among these series as these models ignore the contemporaneous effects. Using a Structural VAR model, we identify these contemporaneous spillovers, which are shown to be strong and asymmetric. We further show that not taking into consideration the contemporaneous interactions among these assets leads to inaccurate findings and inevitably to inaccurate interpretations of the causal relations among them.     

A unified framework for analysing price interdependence,innovative activity and exchange rate pass-through

This paper develops an international oligopoly model in which domestic and foreign firms simultaneously choose their price and innovation strategies under the assumption of non-zero conjectural variations in relation to their competitors’ price changes. The model captures the links between the exchange rate, foreign and domestic firms’ prices and investment in process innovation and provides a unified framework for analysing exchange rate pass-through.     

试论行业协会与政府关系模式的选择

随着我国市场经济的发展和政府职能的转变,行业协会组织得以迅速发展,并在我国经济社会发展中发挥着重要的不可替代的作用。由此也对政府与行会关系提出了新的挑战。构建政府与行业协会之间良性互动合作关系,对建设服务型政府、推动公共管理社会化进程、促进公民社会发展具有十分重要的意义。构建行业协会与政府间竞合关系的新型模式为深入探讨我国政府与行业协会间良性互动合作关系提供新的探索和启示。     

我国西部农产品物流与农村经济关系的实证分析

依据新制度经济学的分析框架,我国西部农产品物流与农村经济制度变迁及相互关系的不断积淀,必然表现为现实西部地区农产品物流与农村经济之间的数量关系。基于此,运用现代计量经济学方法和分析软件,对我国西部农产品物流与农村经济关系状态进行实证分析和得出正确判断。结果表明:通过实证判断这种关系特征的状况,不仅是对西部地区农产品物流与农村经济制度变迁及其相互关系绩效的检验,更是实现西部地区农产品物流与农村经济可持续发展的重要依据。     

组织跨界搜索与创新绩效间关系的元分析

检索国内外主要学术数据库中有关跨界搜索与创新绩效间关系的实证文献,对符合元分析要求的33篇文献进行客观分析,发现组织跨界搜索对创新绩效有显著的正向影响。进一步探讨了情景因素、测量因素等对两者关系的调节作用。结果表明:在动态环境及西方文化背景下,跨界宽度搜索对创新绩效的影响更为显著;跨界搜索维度及测度方式正向调节两者关系,但创新绩效的客观测量与主观测量对两者关系的影响并不显著。     

Relationship between ecological economics and circular economy, eco-industry, cleaner production, and other relevant categories

Eco-industry, circular economy, cleaner production, industrial ecology or industrial ecosystem and other subjects are all categories related to sustainable developinent. This paper studies the relations and differences between the four categories and sustainable development as well as ecological economics. Circular economy, eco-industry, industrial ecosystem and cleaner production were put forward during the revolution in “end treatment pattern” of traditional industrial society. Industrial ecology, eco-industry and circular economy theory are three content expansions of cleaner production. Ecological economics is of instructive function theoretically and methodologically for circular economy, eco-industrial, cleaner production and industrial ecology. Circular economy theory is easier to be accepted, compared with ecological economics theory. And circular economy in nature is the complete application of ecological economics theory.     

Exploring the interaction between stock price index and exchange rates: an asymmetric threshold approach

This article examines the impact of stock market news on the foreign exchange markets of USA, Canada and UK, employing an innovative extension of the asymmetric threshold model of Apergis and Miller (2006). Under this framework we can disentangle the reaction of foreign exchange market to bad or good news and small or large news of stock returns. Our comprehensive daily data-set spans the period from January 1990 to June 2014. Using a cointegration and error correction model, we document the existence of a causal relationship between stock market and foreign exchange markets. Most interestingly, our results derived from the asymmetric threshold model confirm that the relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets is sensitive to short-term good or bad news and short-term small or large news. Our findings entail significant implications for policymakers, governments, risk managers and international investors.     

产业集聚与城市化关系的实证分析——基于面板数据模型

产业集聚是当今产业发展的一个新趋势,它在推动地区工业化、城市化进程方面发挥了重要作用。把握产业集聚与城市化之间的互动规律,积极培育具有地区优势的产业集群,是促进欠发达地区缩小差距、快速崛起的有效途径。     

基于ARIMA与GARCH模型的国际油价预测比较分析

在分析影响油价波动因素的基础上,利用1986年1月至2010年12月的WTI国际原油价格月度数据,分别建立ARIMA和GARCH模型对油价进行预测。并通过对2011年1月至2012年4月WTI原油价格进行外推预测,检验模型的预测效果。比较分析发现,在短期预测中,ARIMA和GARCH模型对油价的预测均比较准确,但当油价由于受到重大事件的影响而有较大波动时,模型的预测精度下降;在长期预测中,GARCH模型的预测效果优于ARIMA模型;整体来看,GARCH模型预测的精度高于ARIMA模型。因此,在国际油价预测中,用GARCH模型是比较合适的。     

旅行社价格战的博弈分析

旅行社是旅游产品设计、组织和销售的渠道商以及消费者之间的桥梁.旅行社对旅游业具有重要影响，旅行社之间的价格竞争日益严重，盈利率低。随着我国加入世贸组织，越来越多的外国旅行社进入我国、针对我国旅行社如何走出困境，本文从博弈角度分析旅行社的价格竞争及其对策。     

新员工主动社会化行为与组织承诺关系研究——以社会资本为中介变量

为了探索新员工主动社会化行为影响组织承诺的过程,本文对来自企业的401个有效样本进行了实证分析。本研究运用层级回归的方法,控制了人口统计变量的影响后,发现员工的搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为对组织承诺有直接的正面影响,同时,通过员工社会资本对员工组织承诺产生了间接的正面影响。社会资本在员工搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为影响组织承诺的机制中起部分中介作用。员工的关系构建行为对组织承诺没有显著影响,但对员工社会资本存在显著的正面影响。     

Links between trust in the ECB and its interest rate policy

We analyse determinants of trust in the European Central Bank (ECB). Our main finding is that when households have pessimistic expectations, aggressive cuts in interest rates have an adverse effect on their trust in central bank. This result is in accordance with the ‘lack-of-confidence shock’ hypothesis developed by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2012) and in contrast with the ‘fundamental shock’ hypothesis which implies positive effects of aggressive cuts for trust in the ECB. The result is robust to various changes in the modelling approach.     

Modeling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: A wavelet based approach

In this paper, we use a wavelet approach to study the linear and nonlinear Granger causality between the real oil price and the real effective U.S. Dollar exchange rate. Instead of analyzing the time series at their original level, as it is usually done, we first decompose the two macroeconomic variables at various scales of resolution using wavelet decomposition and then we study the relationships among the decomposed series on a scale by scale basis. A major finding of this paper is that the linear and nonlinear causal relationships between the real oil price and the real effective U.S. Dollar exchange rate vary over frequency bands as it depends on the time scales. Indeed, there is a strong bidirectional causal relationship between the real oil price and the real dollar exchange rate for large time horizons, i.e. corresponding to fundamentalist traders, especially fund managers and institutional investors. But, for the first frequency band which corresponds to a class of traders whom investment horizon is about 3-months and whom trading is principally speculative (noise traders), the causality runs only from the real oil prices to real effective U.S dollar exchange rate.     

基础设施与制造业发展关系研究

本文从历史与实证的角度 ,以中国改革开放 2 0年的实践为案例 ,用计量分析的方法测算基础设施与制造业发展之间的相互关系及相互影响的方向及程度 ,在此基础上提出了促进基础设施与制造业协调发展的建议     

基于国际数据的经济结构与耕地关系检验

在Chenery经济结构转化理论基础上,概括了我国转型阶段经济发展中的耕地问题,并回顾了经济与耕地资源变化的相关研究。运用2009年国际截面数据,对经济结构与耕地变化之间的Kuznets曲线进行了检验,结果表明,经济发展水平与耕地变化之间不是倒U型,而是更为复杂的N型关系,经济结构转变中农业劳动力、耕地向工业或城市的转移以及农业份额的下降均会引起耕地资源的减少。提出转型期经济结构转型与耕地保护相融的三点建议。