封闭式基金析价现象及套利机会分析

封闭式基金是指事先确定发行总额,在封闭期内单位总数不变,不能要求赎回,在基金上市后投资者通过证券二级市场竞价买卖基金单位的一种证券投资基金。封闭式基金折价交易,是指封闭式基金的交易价格并不等于其单位净资产现值（Net Asset Value,简称为NAV,中文简称为净值）,大多数时候其交易价格都低于其单位净值的现象。无论是在国外相对成熟的资本市场上,     

封闭式证券投资基金的定价研究

封闭式证券投资基金是根据供求关系进行自由交易,其市场价格相对于资产净值将产生溢价或折价。研究了完全信息条件下与不完全信息条件下封闭式证券投资基金的定价,并在此基础上对我国的封闭式基金的现实价格波动进行了分析。     

封闭式证券投资基金的定价研究

封闭式证券投资基金是根据供求关系进行自由交易，其市场价格相对于资产净值将产生溢价或折价。研究了完全信息务件下与不完全信息条件下封闭式证券投资基金的定价，并在此基础上对我国的封闭式基金的现实价格波动进行了分析。     

中国封闭式基金折价问题研究——基于封闭式基金仓位的实证分析

封闭式基金折价交易现象是，金融领域中的一个难解之迷。在现有文献研究的基础上，以我国沪深上市的20支封闭式基金为研究样本，利用数据建立我国封闭式基金折价的计量经济模型。结果表明，封闭式基金仓位能很好的解释封闭式基金折价交易现象，并且能运用前景理论进行解释。     

试用投资者情绪理论解释中国封闭式基金的价格变动

封闭式基金的折价交易是国内外基金市场的普遍现象,而传统经济理论在解释封闭式基金折价现象方面的失败对"市场有效性假说"提出了质疑.当我们在界定了"噪声交易者风险"的内涵和简单介绍了DSSW模型之后,对中国封闭式基金折(溢)价做出了一个尝试性的解释.     

我国封闭式基金折价的信息含量实证研究

一、问题的提出 本文所指的封闭式基金折价的信息含量是指基金折价所包含的未来基金收益率以及净资产收益率（NAV收益率）的信息，这一问题通常在“封闭式基金折价之谜”研究中被涉及到。封闭式基金折价之谜是指基金通常以低于其单位资产净值（NAV）的价格出售的现象，这一现象由于违背了有效市场假说而倍受各界关注，国外研究者提出了众多的理论来解释这一谜团，但迄今还没有一种可以提供全面而准确的解释。     

封闭式基金折价理论评述

无论是中国还是西方的资本市场，封闭式基金都存在持续的高折价现象，这难以用传统的有效市场理论加以解释，而被称为“封闭式基金折价之谜”。西方学者在数十年对封闭式基金折价进行研究的过程中形成了两派观点：一派是理性预期的观点，一派是噪声交易的观点，这两派观点研究假设截然不同，但都一定程度上解释了封闭式基金折价的存在。     

我国封闭式基金折价原因探析

噪声交易理论较好地解释了我国封闭式基金的折价交易问题。但是,实证结果表明,还存在着其他因素影响着基金的折价。由于我国证券市场处在发展阶段,基金管理者独立性差,持股集中、持股重叠、内幕交易现象很多,基金管理中存在着道德风险,这是造成我国封闭式基金大幅折价的重要原因。     

封闭式基金折价问题探索

封闭式基金折价问题一直是理论界的难解之谜,对此的解释主要有投资者理性和有限理性两类框架。本文从比较了两类框架之下的观点对中国A股封闭式基金折价问题的解释能力,着重以实证形式从收益波动率等方面验证了缺失赎回权导致封闭式基金折价的解释。     

封闭式基金折价问题探索

封闭式基金折价问题一直是理论界的难解之谜,对此的解释主要有投资者理性和有限理性两类框架.本文从比较了两类框架之下的观点对中国A股封闭式基金折价问题的解释能力,着重以实证形式从收益波动率等方面验证了缺失赎回权导致封闭式基金折价的解释.     

The brain, the mind, and the future

Within psychology, brain research, and the sciences generally there has been a greater emphasis on the investigation of phenomena in terms of present and past than in terms of the future. This restriction in time frame has led not only to a fragmentation of theory and research in all the sciences, but also, in a time of great social, political, and economic change, to a failure by social science to provide the kind of guidance through improved prediction that might help ease our passage through this global turbulence. To remedy this situation much more work is needed in the relevant areas of brain research, in a closely wedded psychology of consciousness and the mind as a whole, and eventually in artificial intelligence and systems analysis as a means of testing and advancing theory. This article examines the basis for such an advance in the work of Luria, Pribram, and others with the frontal brain; Sperry, Bogen, and others with brain hemispheric differences; and von Neumann and others in artificial intelligence and systems analysis. It examines the nature of the prediction task philosophically and psychologically, states a model for brain functioning and forecasting suggested by a synthesis of prior research, and reports the supporting evidence for this model from philosophy, psychology, cybernetics, and recent experimental and field studies. It closes with a consideration of needs for continuing research and the implications of advancement in this area for science and society.     

The normal, the natural, and the harmonic

Use is made of rigorous definitions for the terms normal, natural, and harmonic to reveal a number of unfamiliar aspects about them. The Gaussian distribution is not sufficient to determine who is normal, and fluctuations above or below a natural-growth curve may or may not be natural. A recipe for harmonically sustained natural growth requires that the overlap during the substitution process must be limited. As a consequence the overall growth process must experience good as well as bad “seasons”.     

Luddites, the industrial revolution, and the demographic transition

Technological change was unskilled-labor-biased during the early industrial revolution, but is skill-biased today. This implies a rich set of non-monotonic macroeconomic dynamics which are not embedded in extant unified growth models. We present historical evidence and develop a model which can endogenously account for these facts, where factor bias reflects profit-maximizing decisions by innovators. In a setup with directed technological change, and fixed as well as variable costs of education, initial endowments dictate that the early industrial revolution be unskilled-labor-biased. Increasing basic knowledge then causes a growth takeoff, an income-led demand for fewer but more educated children, and a transition to skill-biased technological change in the long run.     

Megatrends, the annual report, possibilities

The successful leader and manager have two very important challenges: to scan the horizon and not be thrown into crisis by not seeing predictable surprises, and to recognize the longer, more pervasive trends that are in the distant future. An annual autopsy of the past year and a review of the years ahead will not only fulfill the requirements for an annual report, but will be a learning experience for the team. When we are open to new ideas, lead by inviting dialogue rather than demanding, and openly trust, believe in, and inspire others, the organization will also adopt these values as its operating framework. Our annual plans will then be living documents that create the roadmap for excellence.     

Computers,Input-Output,and the Future

While all regions are exposed to natural hazards, most disasters (such as droughts, earthquakes, extreme temperatures, floods, slides, storms, volcanoes and wildfires) tend to occur in developing regions. Underdeveloped countries and poor people concentrate the un-natural impact of natural hazards, deepening the existent inequalities within and across countries. The paper analyzes the empirical evidence on the incidence of disasters and maps worldwide disaster risks, to then assess the factors as to why disaster risk concentrates on certain people, areas and countries. It uses a conceptual framework on the links among risk, vulnerability, and impacts to understand the multi-dimensionality of disaster effects and the increasing challenges that countries have to overcome in the face of climate change.     

OPEC, rationality, and the macroeconomy

This paper builds a simple two-nation macro-model which includes a large manufacturing economy, such as the OECD and OPEC. Its distinguishing feature is that OPEC is a revenue-maximizing cartel who exploits the imperfectly elastic oil demand curve emerging from the rest of the world's use of imported oil as an intermediate good. Unlike the case of a small open economy facing OPEC, the large open economy is found to have a vertical aggregate supply curve. Consequently, anticipated macro-policies have no effect on real GNP. Moreover, micro-policies which induce the adoption of oil-saving technologies are also found to be neutral.