亲情乡情中华情 游子赤子龙之子

何威廉先生。现任世界华人华侨联合总会主席、香港慈善总会会长、香港汇堡投资有限公司董事长。其家族集团五代在印度尼西亚和东南亚，是较有影响的华人家族之一。从事高速公路、发电，房地产，国际贸易、制造、物流等行业，其家族与海外、香港和大陆有着深厚的渊源和广泛的联系。     

吴风遗韵聚笔端——记无锡书画院院长、油画家 王洋

王洋,1958年生,安徽毫州人,毕业于解放军艺术学院美术系,现为无锡市书画院院长,国家一级美术师,系中国美术家协会会员.代表作品有《茫茫秋海泣如霞》(入选第八届全国美术作品展);《记忆中的阵地》(入选第十三届全国版画展),被江苏省美术馆收藏;《井冈山红军军工厂》(入选纪念建军七十周年全国美展):《金秋》获首届江苏省美术节铜奖;《觅》、《春雨》、《张闻天》等作品在江苏省美展中获银奖、铜奖、优秀奖等.     

对甘肃省经济发展几个热点问题的思考与建议

一、把畅通甘肃省东大门和南大门放在战略高度 从区域经济角度,我们可以将甘肃划分为东、中、西三个大的经济区域,其中西部主要以武威、金昌、张掖和嘉峪关为主体,中部主要以兰州、定西、白银和临夏为主体,东部主要以天水、平凉、庆阳和陇南为主体,酒泉即可成为独立的一个经济区域,也可以由西部经济圈来带动,甘南则可由中部和东部经济圈共同带动.     

“粮食欧佩克”前景如何

在9月份召开的澳大利亚APEC部长级会议上,俄罗斯农业部长戈尔杰耶夫要与美国和澳大利亚的同行探讨组建一个"粮食欧佩克",以避免国际粮价的剧烈波动和可能到来的"粮荒".独联体地区的另外两大"粮仓"乌克兰和哈萨克斯坦,已经对这个构想表示了赞赏.如果俄能够争取到美澳的加入,这个组织将能控制全世界62%的粮食出口.由于粮食作为国家重要战略物资的意义已被越来越多的国家所看重,粮食甚至开始成为个别大国的"武器".     

策划感染力,广告业新的发动机

星传媒体隶属于全球四大广告集团之一的法国巴黎PublicisGroup(阳狮集团),在世界76个国家设有110家分公司或办公室,拥有超过4800名员工,总部位于美国芝加哥.星传媒体(中国)在北京、上海和广州设有办公室,现有员工近300人.     

促进泉州鞋业出口健康发展

泉州是中国四大鞋都之一,泉州生产的鞋在国内外都很有影响,且在海外占有广泛的市场,泉州鞋业生产及出口成为泉州经济发展的重要"增长源".本文分析了泉州鞋业生产和出口的现状及所面临的问题,并对泉州鞋业出口须采用的应对措施进行了探讨.     

世界首富的发家秘诀

卡洛斯·斯利姆(Carlos Slim)是墨西哥垄断级的人物.这位67岁的实业大亨,手中掌控着200多家公司,涉足行业从电信、烟草、建筑、矿业、自行车、软饮料到航空、铁路、酒店、银行、印刷等等.     

深圳市首届IT服务研讨会隆重召开

日前由深圳市信息工程协会和深圳市珞珈远望科技有限公司共同组织的"深圳市首届IT服务研讨会"在福田区高新技术创业中心大楼召开.深圳市信息办领导、市政府有关部门的信息化专家及各信息中心主任、深圳市IT服务商、深圳市IT运营商等领导、专家和企业领导共三十多人参加了会议.     

美国次级债危机的影响及我国应对策略

近来,美国的次级债危机备受全球关注.2006年下半年,美国的次级债市场已经出现不祥的征兆,去年8月,次级债危机迅速升级为席卷世界资本市场的全球金融风暴.美国国内的次级债供应商纷纷破产,全球对冲基金大面积宣布解散或停止赎回,跨国投资银行和商业银行普遍发出盈利预警,主要股票市场指数应声而跌.截至去年10月底,各国央行累计已向市场注入近8000亿美元的流动性资金,注资的广度和规模前所未有.     

中国大陆最佳商业城市《福布斯》县级首市石狮福建十强亚军人均再度夺冠

石狮服装城成为中国十大创新市场工业旅游示范点;鸳鸯池布料市场双双荣获中国服装市场杰出贡献奖;注册商标总量11204件,居全国百强县第二位;中国驰名商标中国名牌产品国家免检产品分别年新增8个、2个、9个,总量28个、3个、28个;市公安局荣膺全国优秀公安局称号;成功举办首届闽台对渡文化节暨蚶江海上泼水节;城市总体规划名列福建首位;前山村被定为全国首批新农村建设科技示范点;农民人均收入10005元,再为全省之最.这是最大创先、创建、创举.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.     

新员工主动社会化行为与组织承诺关系研究——以社会资本为中介变量

为了探索新员工主动社会化行为影响组织承诺的过程,本文对来自企业的401个有效样本进行了实证分析。本研究运用层级回归的方法,控制了人口统计变量的影响后,发现员工的搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为对组织承诺有直接的正面影响,同时,通过员工社会资本对员工组织承诺产生了间接的正面影响。社会资本在员工搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为影响组织承诺的机制中起部分中介作用。员工的关系构建行为对组织承诺没有显著影响,但对员工社会资本存在显著的正面影响。     

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth*

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth are identified. Included is a discussion of his contributions on: the determinants of differences in speed of adoption of innovations; the use of patents to measure technology; the private and social returns to R&D; and spillover effects from R&D. Griliches's own evaluation of his research contribution is compared to the evaluation of others in the field, using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the online Web of Science. Griliches's most important contribution is his 1957 Econometrica hybrid corn paper that is a foundation of the economics of technological innovation. Remarkably, the trend in annual citations to the paper has continued to increase for over 40 years. Finally, we summarize Griliches's most recent views on the practice of economics and on the most important unanswered questions in the economics of technology and growth.     

Evidence on the impact of R&D and ICT investments on innovation and productivity in Italian firms

Both research and development (R&D) and information and communication technology (ICT) investment have been identified as sources of relative innovation underperformance in Europe vis-à-vis the USA. In this article, we investigate the R&D and ICT investment at the firm level in an effort to assess their relative importance and to what extent they are complements or substitutes. We use data on a large unbalanced panel data sample of Italian manufacturing firms constructed from four consecutive waves of a survey of manufacturing firms, to estimate a version of the CDM model of R&D, innovation, and productivity [Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse 1998. Research, innovation and productivity: An econometric analysis at the firm level. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 7, no. 2: 115–58] that has been modified to include ICT investment and R&D as the two main inputs into innovation and productivity. We find that R&D and ICT are both strongly associated with innovation and productivity, with R&D being more important for innovation, and ICT investment being more important for productivity. For the median firm, rates of return to both investments are so high that they suggest considerably underinvestment in both these activities. We explore the possible complementarity between R&D and ICT in innovation and production, but find none, although we do find complementarity between R&D and worker skill in innovation.