价格水平的财政决定理论:拓展与争议

价格水平的财政决定理论(FTPL)认为通货膨胀不是一种货币现象,而是一种财政现象,价格水平由政府预算约束在均衡处相等来决定。本文对这一价格水平决定的新理论进行了梳理和评述,阐明了FTPL的新进展及其在发展过程中遇到的挑战和困难,以此为该理论能更有效地运用于现实提供改进的思路。并且,为我国进一步稳定物价水平和平抑经济波动提供更多的政策选择和政策搭配方案。     

财政赤字、通货膨胀与非李嘉图制度

改革开放以来我国财政收支一直处于赤字状态,理论上来讲,长期的财政赤字如果不能以税收收入作为担保,政府必然最终会通过通货膨胀的方式来弥补,而且如果财政当局处于主导地位,在政府的举债能力不受到任何限制情况下,极有可能会引起恶性通货膨胀。本文基于扩展VAR模型的实证检验显示,在当前的政府融资体制安排下,我国的通货膨胀很大程度上是一种财政现象,财政政策在价格水平决定中发挥主导作用,货币政策处于从属地位。如果想要从根本上治愈周期性的通货膨胀,就必须进行相应的财政政策调整、财政体制改革和货币体制改革,健全政府融资体制。     

中国的财政赤字与通货膨胀:1952—2012

我国财政收支持续近30年的赤字状态,长期赤字如果不能以税收收入作为担保,政府必然最终会通过征收铸币税的方式来弥补,在政府的举债能力不受到任何限制情况下,极有可能会引起恶性通货膨胀。基于此,我们从政府跨期预算约束方程着手,建立一个理论模型和分析框架,从理论上探讨我国财政赤字与通货膨胀之间的关系,并进行相关计量检验和实证分析。结论表明,在当前政府融资体制安排下,我国的通货膨胀很大程度上是一种财政现象,财政政策在价格水平决定中发挥主导作用,货币政策处于从属地位。如果想要从根本上治愈周期性的通货膨胀,就必须进行相应的财政政策调整、财政体制改革和货币体制改革,健全政府融资体制。     

财政约束与价格水平决定:FTPL的一个批判

本文在一个内生增长一般均衡货币模型中, 通过引入名义债券、实际债券、货币和物质资本, 讨论了政府财政约束与价格水平决定的关系。我们发现, 在平衡增长路径上均衡通货膨胀率完全由货币增长率决定, 政府跨时预算约束方程只是个恒等式。如果价格水平财政理论(FiscalTheoryofPriceLevel, FTPL) 成立, 则小得可以忽略的财政扰动可以导致物价水平的巨大波动, 这是无法让人接受的; 进一步的研究发现, 问题出现的原因是FTPL将名义债券市场和其他资产市场割裂开来, 孤立地讨论了名义债券市场出清的条件, 由此认为跨时预算约束方程是一个均衡定价方程; 当将诸市场统一起来考虑时, 公众可以在货币、债券和物质资本之间进行选择, 财政当局不再是一个价格决定者, 其债券发行量成为一个内生变量, 必须服从跨时预算约束方程, 后者成为一个恒等式, 从而价格水平主要由货币当局的货币发行决定。     

财政与一般价格水平的决定——价格决定的财政理论综述

传统的货币论认为价格水平主要由货币政策决定,但是它忽略了政府预算约束对价格水平的影响。价格决定的财政理论批判了传统模型中价格均衡的不可决定性,提出了新的均衡条件,即实际政府净债务应当和实际政府剩余相等,这个均衡条件赋予了政府选择实际价格路径的能力。     

财政刺激计划、货币供应量、公众预期与通货膨胀——中国1996-2008年月度数据的实证分析

本文试图分析政府财政刺激计划、货币供应量和公众预期这三大因素,对通货膨胀的实际发生所分别产生的冲击。文中采用中国1996年1月—2008年12月的财政支出、货币供应量及居民消费物价指数月度数据,运用VEC模型进行分析的结果表明,财政支出对通货膨胀的解释力很低,货币供应量和物价自身对通货膨胀的解释力最强。而从时间效应来看,物价自身在短期内对通货膨胀起决定作用,而长期看货币供应量是影响通货膨胀的最主要因素。     

金融危机后资产型通货膨胀与货币政策前沿研究

2008年全球金融危机冲击之后,各国普遍出现了高货币增长下一般价格水平比较稳定而资产价格快速膨胀的现象。传统的通货膨胀理论和现有的货币政策范式难以解释与应对,"资产型通货膨胀"已经成为后危机时代一个亟需研究的问题。鉴于此,本文从货币及资产价格的视角对国外相关研究进行了梳理,力图厘清资产型通货膨胀的特点、资产价格与通货膨胀的关系、预期及货币在促成资产型通货膨胀中的推动作用,以及如何建立新的应对资产型通胀的货币政策新框架等问题。在综述分析的基础上提出未来研究中的挑战性问题。     

财政分权、地方政府投资与通货膨胀——来自中国转型期的证据

依据当前我国通货膨胀严重和地方投资过热同时并存这一经济现象,建立模型实证研究财政分权体制下地方政府投资对通货膨胀的影响。实证结果显示,地方政府投资是我国通货膨胀形成的一个因素,地方政府投资通过乘数效应拉动社会需求,同时不断增加的投资加强了对土地财政依赖,两者共同作用推动了通货膨胀上升。     

我国当前农业发展问题的思考——从通货膨胀与农产品短缺的关系角度考察

<正> 1994年的消费物价指数超过20％已成定局,这是由1993年底粮价上涨引发的改革以来最严重的通货膨胀,引起了政府、经济理论界和实际工作部门的极大关注。 现代经济条件下,任何物价上涨确实是一个货币现象,因为价格无非是商品交换价值的货币形式。但是物价上涨绝不只是一个货币现象,换言之通货膨胀并不只是一个票子发多了的问题。因为倘若物价上涨仅是一个货币现象的话,正像有人戏言的那样,我们把印钞机砸碎不     

政府权力、营利性扩张与通货膨胀

本文从政府权力视角,设立分权制度下中央、地方两级政府的目标函数,分别在大政府范畴的预算约束条件下求解其最优选择和长期稳态路径。本文的结论是,长期稳态价格水平不仅取决于中央、地方两级政府的债务规模、税收与支出,而且还受到国有企业投资的影响;中央政府的投资、债务、利润与货币增长之间相互推进,地方政府为扩大投资竞争融资来源具有强烈的货币增长需求,这倒逼货币供给增加;通货膨胀主要原因之一就是政府权力软约束下的营利性投资扩张。因此,治理通货膨胀的必要条件是,设计一种政府与治理通货膨胀具有共融利益的制度,减少政府营利性的准公共投资,增加事关国计民生的纯公共支出。     

Estimating the value of political connections in China: Evidence from sudden deaths of politically connected independent directors

This paper estimates the value of political connections by examining stock price reactions to sudden deaths of retired government officials who were acting as independent directors of private firms in China from 2003 to 2012. Employing an event study, we find that, if a private firm loses political connections because of the sudden death of an independent director who was previously a government official, its stock price drops 3.61% on average within ten trading days. After the loss of political connections, we find that it is possible but infeasible for a private firm to reestablish political connections with the government in a short period of time. Moreover, the sudden death of a retired government official leads to a reduction in the economic benefits (e.g., bank loans, tax preference, and government subsidies) obtained by a private firm, which provides a reasonable explanation for the negative stock price reaction after losing political connections.     

论劳动生产率与价格总水平的关系

作者认为，虽然各国政府都力图保持价格总水平的稳定，而且随着劳动生产率的提高，商品价值量也不断降低，但商品价格总水平并没有降低，而且还有不断上升的趋势。这是因为纸币流通为价格总水平上涨提供了可能，同时，普遍降低价格总水平不利于经济的发展。如果各国政府都把稳定价格总水平作为价格管理目标，能否实现以及在多大程度上实现这一目标．主要取决于该国的经济实力。价格总水平的上涨是国家为实现其职能所付出的代价。     

Asset price volatility and government revenue

This paper investigates the effect of commercial, residential property and equity price volatility on the variability of cyclically adjusted government revenue. We find significant evidence that asset price volatility increases the variability of government revenue. A 1% increase in equity price volatility increases government revenue variability by 0.37–0.44%. An increase in residential property price volatility increases revenue volatility by about 0.15–0.22%, whereas this effect diminishes to 0.11% in case of commercial property price. This evidence reflects the automatic increase of government revenue variability due to asset price movements and supports arguments in favour of adjusting fiscal variables for both business cycle and asset price changes. However, we also find evidence that equity price variability increases revenue variability even when government revenue is adjusted for both economic and asset price cycles, indicating the presence of more complicated dynamics between fiscal variables and asset price changes.     

Regime switching and the (in)stability of the price–rent relationship: evidence from the US

Present value models of house prices assert that in the absence of self-fulfilling bubbles, a house price is equal to the present discount value of all future rents, which implies a linear relationship between house price and rent, and hence a stable price-to-rent ratio. Using a Markov switching error correction model, we re-examine this relationship in the US housing market and find two distinctive regimes: one with a long-run relation between house price and rent predicted by the present value models and the other in which the relation is nonlinear. Furthermore, we find evidence that deviations of house prices from the present value models’ predictions are caused by the overreaction of house prices to movements in rents rather than speculative bubbles attributable to extraneous factors.     

基于均值回归过程的多执行期基础设施项目政府担保价值研究

基础设施项目普遍具有较长的投资回收期,长期来看其产品(服务)价格一般趋于稳定值。考虑前人在研究政府担保价值过程中,其假设项目收入服从几何布朗运动存在的不足,为此,引入均值回归过程,并将政府担保单执行期价值衡量扩展至多执行期,构建了最低收入政府担保多执行期价值模型。采用动态规划方法讨论了均值回归过程对政府担保价值的影响,给出多执行期存在最大执行次数限制的政府担保价值测算案例,为政府科学估算政府担保价值提供依据。     

Corruption and privatization

This paper analyses the relation between corruption and privatization. In particular, we study how corruption affects the acquisition price and the post-privatization market structure. The model predicts that privatization in countries with highly corrupt government results in a higher degree of market concentration than in countries where governments are less corrupt. The acquisition price is also likely to be higher when a government is highly corrupt than when government officials are honest or moderately corrupt. Finally, and perhaps surprisingly, we demonstrate that a stronger propensity to embezzle state revenues may reduce government officials' benefits from corruption. The reason is that the more eager the government officials are to take bribes, the cheaper they are to buy.     

Cointegration relationships and hedonic pricing of differentiated commodities: an application to price dynamics in the US dairy sector

This study investigates the implications of hedonic pricing for price dynamics of differentiated commodities. A conceptual model of hedonic pricing is developed under a Leontief technology, showing how commodity prices reflect the underlying value of their components. Implications for the existence of cointegration relationships among commodity prices are derived. An application to the pricing and dynamics of selected US dairy commodities is presented. It provides evidence on the role of component valuation in the dynamics of dairy commodity prices in the short run as well as in the long run. Distinguishing between market regime and government regime (when the government price support is active), the analysis finds significant differences in dairy price dynamics between the two regimes.     

Institutional development and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China

Better developed legal and political institutions result in greater availability of reliable firm-specific information. When stock prices reflect more firm-specific information there will be less stock price synchronicity. This paper traces the experience of China, an economy undergoing dramatic institutional change in the last 20 years with rich variation in experiences across provinces. We show that stock price synchronicity is lower when there is institutional development in terms of property rights protection and rule of law. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of political pluralism on synchronicity. A more pluralistic regime reduces uncertainty and opaqueness regarding government interventions and therefore increases the value of firm-specific information that reduces synchronicity.     

论公共部门合理边界的决定——兼论混合公共部门的价格形成机制

本文从中国公共部门(主要是提供私人品的公共部门)实际存在的问题出发,研究了其中存在的政府失灵,揭示了其根源在于政府目标的错位,在于缺乏公共需求对于公共供给的决定机制和信息互动反馈机制。由此导致了以政府目标为基础的公共部门的边界经常是模糊不清的。因此,我们从理论上提出了社会效益目标最优化所决定的公共部门边界的基本命题,以此作为评价政府行为是否合理的依据。由于公共品与私人品的边界不清还必然导致混合公共部门的价格扭曲,在合理界定两者的前提下,通过不同约束条件和不同范围内的放开行业准入,引进多元化的竞争方式,能够增加公共供给和缓解供给不足,形成合理价格的均衡基础。     

市场和政府共同作用下的城市地价——中国城市的实证研究

本文根据单中心城市模型和中国城市土地市场若干特点建立了城市地价检验模型,并对中国地级以及以上城市地价进行了截面分析.计量估计表明,城市人口和收入是地价的重要决定因素,郊区土地价值和城市交通条件也影响城市地价;估计还表明政府通过控制城市土地供给和选择不同交易方式对城市地价有直接和间接的影响,而特定交易方式的影响犹为显著.分析结果还显示地价上涨最大的推动力是旺盛的需求.Robust回归方程估计表明上述统计检验结果是稳健的.