新经济条件下区位因子分析及其启示

新经济背景下,传统的区位因子已经不能适应经济发展的需要,文章通过对长三角外商及港澳台投资区位因素的分析,从传统区位论入手,剖析了新经济条件下传统区位因子作用状况的变化,提出了新型区位因子体系,并分析了新型区位因子对区域经济发展的启示。     

集群环境下区位因子的选择

研究产业集群内区位因子的选择是有意义的。文章首先分析产业集群内区位主体的特征和区位选择动机,然后采用动态分析的方法,结合产业集群的发展阶段,研究集群内区位主体决策选择时区位因子的种类和权重,探索企业和政府区位决策的研究方向。     

基于ISM模型的经济适用房区位因子分析

依据十七大报告,中国正在推行经济适用房制度,以解决中低收入阶层的住房和买房难的问题。然而随着经济适用房制度的推进和实施,出现了很多社会问题,究其根本原因是经济适用房区位选择不合理。在以往研究的基础上,运用ISM模型和SPSS软件,对经济适用房的区位因子进行分析,得到经济适用房区位因子的解释结构模型图,并对其进行分析研究。据此提出建议,为政府、城市规划、房地产开发提供参考。     

基于学习型区位论的县域产业集聚格局研究——以中原城市群为例

产业集聚一直是经济地理学和区域经济学关注的焦点。基于河南省2000—2009年年鉴数据、2004年经济普查和基本单位普查等资料,构建以地方学习创新为核心的学习型区位论分析框架,采用Moran指数和SLM模型等分析了期间中原城市群县域工业集聚格局变化、两位数制造业的空间集聚特点,以及工业集聚的学习型区位因子特征。研究认为：学习型区位论分析框架提供了区位选择研究的新思路,考虑空间自相关性的Moran指数与SLM模型辨识了产业集聚的地域、验证了地理邻近性的影响。中原城市群县域工业集聚态势明显,经历了倒＂S＂型的发展演变,各个地域呈现出不同的发展特点,各制造业集聚表现出不同的空间特征,学习能力、集聚经济、地方学习环境和资本投入是当前促进中原城市群县域工业集聚的显著性因子。     

高新技术产业聚集的区位因素

高新技术产业集聚的区位因子一般分为地区的知识溢出能力、人力资本、基础设施等9大类,本文假设这些区位因子对高新技术产业集聚影响显著,将其引入模型进行分析,检验结果显示仅气候环境、基础设施、地区知识溢出能力和地区的技术实力等4个因子对我国高新技术企业的区位选择有明显影响。     

影响中国星级饭店空间分布的区位因子分析

中国星级饭店的宏观区位分布影响因素有一般经济因素、旅游经济因素、可进入性因素及环境因素等,对这些因素选取具体指标量化后用灰色关联度分析方法定量测出影响中国星级饭店空间分布的区位因子;通过分析,发现影响中国星级饭店空间分布的区位因子有区域经济发展水平和消费水平、旅游资源价值与旅游业发展水平、区位条件与可达性以及区域基础设施水平与投资环境等。     

服务业区位因素体系的研究

区位因素理论是区位理论体系的核心内容之一。迄今为止国内外系统研究服务业区位因素的成果并不多见。在简要总结国内外关于区位因素分类研究的基础上,分析了不同社会发展阶段区位因素的构成及其影响;基于系统综合的角度,根据区位因素的联系性及差异性,结合服务业的基本特性,初步构建了四大类服务业区位因素:经济因素、空间因素、信息因素和人文因素,并简要分析了各类区位因素对服务业区位选择的影响;根据四类因素中各个因子的动态性和主导性,提出影响服务业区位选择的四大动机机制。服务业区位因素体系的构建旨在为分析和解释各类服务业区位选择及区位特征提供一个理论工具,以促进服务业区位论的发展。     

港口发展的区域观点

港口始终是经济地理学研究的重要领域之一。古典区位论就对港口的区位选择及港口作为工业区位等问题作了探索。德国学者高兹发表的《海港区位论》一文,结合韦伯工业区位论的思想和方法,创立了总体费用最小原则,来追求海港建设的最优区位。根据美国经济学家胡佛的运费结构理论,可知港口是发展工业的理想区位。高氏、胡氏的理论思想在今天对指导港口发展仍具重要意义。     

区位模型在公共设施布局中的应用

古典区位论是现代区位论的理论基石,运用于公共设施布局的分配.区位模型是在对古典区位论进行新的诠释以及对其中的假设限制加以修订的基础上发展起来的。顺应当今社会福利化的发展趋势,分配.区位模型正在为福利政策的全方位实施提供有效的理论借鉴。从量化的角度看,区位模型在应用方面大致可以分为解决“重心指向”、“中心指向”和“覆盖指向”等3类问题。建立应用模型首先要确定区位选择的评价标准,其次是划定设置设施的服务范围与确定设施的数目和等级;分析微区位设施布局限制条件的改变对目标函数的影响可以采用“感度分析”等方法。多目标的设施区位规划、GIS空间分析方法的有效使用,以及寻求更快捷的量化求解方法是分配.区位模型在未来的应用研究中应该加强的方面。     

生态工业园区的区位模式

生态工业园区是生态学的思想在工业中的应用。在简单回顾区位理论的基础上,对影响生态工业园区的主要区位因子进行了归纳,并在此基础上对生态工业园区的区位模式进行了概括,将其分为选择模式、拓展模式、营造模式和集聚模式。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.     

Evidence on the impact of R&D and ICT investments on innovation and productivity in Italian firms

Both research and development (R&D) and information and communication technology (ICT) investment have been identified as sources of relative innovation underperformance in Europe vis-à-vis the USA. In this article, we investigate the R&D and ICT investment at the firm level in an effort to assess their relative importance and to what extent they are complements or substitutes. We use data on a large unbalanced panel data sample of Italian manufacturing firms constructed from four consecutive waves of a survey of manufacturing firms, to estimate a version of the CDM model of R&D, innovation, and productivity [Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse 1998. Research, innovation and productivity: An econometric analysis at the firm level. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 7, no. 2: 115–58] that has been modified to include ICT investment and R&D as the two main inputs into innovation and productivity. We find that R&D and ICT are both strongly associated with innovation and productivity, with R&D being more important for innovation, and ICT investment being more important for productivity. For the median firm, rates of return to both investments are so high that they suggest considerably underinvestment in both these activities. We explore the possible complementarity between R&D and ICT in innovation and production, but find none, although we do find complementarity between R&D and worker skill in innovation.     

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth*

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth are identified. Included is a discussion of his contributions on: the determinants of differences in speed of adoption of innovations; the use of patents to measure technology; the private and social returns to R&D; and spillover effects from R&D. Griliches's own evaluation of his research contribution is compared to the evaluation of others in the field, using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the online Web of Science. Griliches's most important contribution is his 1957 Econometrica hybrid corn paper that is a foundation of the economics of technological innovation. Remarkably, the trend in annual citations to the paper has continued to increase for over 40 years. Finally, we summarize Griliches's most recent views on the practice of economics and on the most important unanswered questions in the economics of technology and growth.     

新员工主动社会化行为与组织承诺关系研究——以社会资本为中介变量

为了探索新员工主动社会化行为影响组织承诺的过程,本文对来自企业的401个有效样本进行了实证分析。本研究运用层级回归的方法,控制了人口统计变量的影响后,发现员工的搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为对组织承诺有直接的正面影响,同时,通过员工社会资本对员工组织承诺产生了间接的正面影响。社会资本在员工搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为影响组织承诺的机制中起部分中介作用。员工的关系构建行为对组织承诺没有显著影响,但对员工社会资本存在显著的正面影响。