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1.
We examine the impact of R&D and technology imports on firm performance in Taiwan??s manufacturing industry in a policy context of industrial upgrading. To do so, we estimate a Translog production function on two panels (covering 1992?C1995 and 1997?C2003), using stochastic frontier models. We find that the effects of both knowledge inputs become significant in a larger number of industries in the second panel. These results suggest that the policies encouraging innovation implemented from 1991 onwards paid off in the second half of the 1990s, with innovation driving firm sales. In traditional industries, the effect of innovation can be interpreted as an effort to catch up with the global technology frontier. In the electronics and high-technology industries, it rather testifies of the emergence of a new domain of specialization for Taiwan??which was largely enabled by the aforementioned innovation policies.  相似文献   

2.
Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Drawing upon recent contributions in the statistical literature, we present new results on the convergence of recursive, stochastic algorithms which can be applied to economic models with learning and which generalize previous results. The formal results provide probability bounds for convergence which can be used to describe the local stability under learning of rational expectations equilibria in stochastic models. Economic examples include local stability in a multivariate linear model with multiple equilibria and global convergence in a model with a unique equilibrium.  相似文献   

3.
We employ a 10-variable dynamic structural general equilibrium model to forecast the US real house price index as well as its downturn in 2006:Q2. We also examine various Bayesian and classical time-series models in our forecasting exercise to compare to the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, estimated using Bayesian methods. In addition to standard vector-autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, we also include the information content of either 10 or 120 quarterly series in some models to capture the influence of fundamentals. We consider two approaches for including information from large data sets — extracting common factors (principle components) in factor-augmented vector autoregressive or Bayesian factor-augmented vector autoregressive models as well as Bayesian shrinkage in a large-scale Bayesian vector autoregressive model. We compare the out-of-sample forecast performance of the alternative models, using the average root mean squared error for the forecasts. We find that the small-scale Bayesian-shrinkage model (10 variables) outperforms the other models, including the large-scale Bayesian-shrinkage model (120 variables). In addition, when we use simple average forecast combinations, the combination forecast using the 10 best atheoretical models produces the minimum RMSEs compared to each of the individual models, followed closely by the combination forecast using the 10 atheoretical models and the DSGE model. Finally, we use each model to forecast the downturn point in 2006:Q2, using the estimated model through 2005:Q2. Only the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model actually forecasts a downturn with any accuracy, suggesting that forward-looking microfounded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models of the housing market may prove crucial in forecasting turning points.  相似文献   

4.
This paper examines the first‐best fiscal policy in a stochastic, infinite‐horizon representative agent model that exhibits consumption‐enhanced as well as wealth‐enhanced social status in the household utility. We show that the first‐best labour tax rate is a positive constant that is used to correct negative consumption externalities. The first‐best tax rate on capital income is also positive in order to overturn agents' status‐seeking capital over‐accumulation. Moreover, we find that in sharp contrast to a conventional automatic stabilizer, the first‐best capital tax rate moves in the opposite direction with shocks to firms' production technology, thus exacerbating the business cycle.  相似文献   

5.
Efficiency measurement using a latent class stochastic frontier model   总被引:7,自引:2,他引:5  
Efficiency estimation in stochastic frontier models typically assumes that the underlying production technology is the same for all firms. There might, however, be unobserved differences in technologies that might be inappropriately labeled as inefficiency if such variations in technology are not taken into account. We address this issue by estimating a latent class stochastic frontier model in a panel data framework. An application of the model is presented using Spanish banking data. Our results show that bank-heterogeneity can be fully controlled when a model with four classes is estimated. This paper was written during Luis Oreas visit to Binghamton University in the summer of 2002. We would like to thank an associate editor of the journal and two anonymous referees for their detailed comments. However, we alone are responsible for any remaining errors.  相似文献   

6.
In this paper nonlinear structures in German bank stock returns are investigated in a stochastic modelling framework. In the first step we show the existence of a nonlinear return structure by means of the McLeod-Li and the BDS test. In the second step we focus our analysis on the kinds of nonlinearity actually present in bank stock data. On the basis of the Hsieh test it is possible to discriminate with high power additive from multiplicative dependencies to provide guidance for the choice of an adequate class of stochastic models. It is shown that the multiplicative dependencies predominating the bank stock returns can be captured by low order GARCH models.  相似文献   

7.
动态随机一般均衡 (DSGE) 模型是近10多年来宏观经济学发展的主要标志物。它为研究经济增长和经济波动提供了统一的分析框架。DSGE模型的产生和发展大体上经历了实际的经济周期(RBC)模型和新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型两个阶段。DSGE模型是一种动态模型,又考虑了随机冲击,还具有所需数据信息较少的简约化特征,因而受到政策制定者尤其是中央银行的青睐。DSGE模型现在在理论基础、理论模型与实际数据的匹配性、模型的估计方法等方面还存在这样那样的问题,但是这个模型体现着现代宏观经济学的许多共识和发展趋势,随着贝叶斯方法与DSGE模型的有机融合,随着计算机性能和计算能力的不断提高,DSGE模型将会得到进一步发展和改进。  相似文献   

8.
This article considers the consequences of explicitly allowing for stochastic technological progress and stochastic labor input in the discrete-time Solow-Swan and AK growth models. It shows that the capital-output ratio, but not output per capita, is ergodic irrespective of whether there is a unit root in technology, and thus is the more appropriate measure to use in the cross-sectional analysis of the growth process. Furthermore, the article derives the cross-sectional and time-series implications of the stochastic Solow-Swan model and contrasts these to those of its deterministic counterpart. Among these implications are that the mean of the capital-output ratio depends in a precise way not only on the saving rate and the growth rate of labor input, but also on the variance and higher-order cumulants of the capital-output ratio. Using the Summers-Heston data for seventy-two countries from 1960 to 1992, strong support is found for the predictions of the stochastic Solow-Swan model as compared to those of its deterministic counterpart (as well as those of the AK model), including a significant negative cross-sectional relationship between the mean and the variance of the capital-output ratio.  相似文献   

9.
One way of thinking about research and development is to recognise that firms are trying to solve particular design problems. We often build these design problems into our models, but are forced to oversimplify them in order to make the models solvable. The approach taken in this paper is to acknowledge that design problems are often insoluble using standard techniques and to model instead the process by which firms solve them. Two such processes are simulated in detail. The first, individual experimental search, is based on a problem-solving technique known as simulated annealing. The second, partial imitation, involves learning at a social level and is based on a problem-solving technique known as the genetic algorithm. Some economic implications of these processes are explored, including their application to stochastic learning curves, patent design and the importance of `technodiversity' in the introduction of new technology to developing countries.  相似文献   

10.
This article studies the dynamic response of labor input to neutral technology shocks. It uses benchmark dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium models enriched with labor market search and matching frictions and investment‐specific technological progress that enables a new, agnostic, identification scheme based on sign restrictions on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The estimation supports an increase of labor input in response to neutral technology shocks. This finding is robust across different perturbations of the SVAR model.  相似文献   

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