Subsidies under uncertainty: Modeling of input- and output-oriented policies

Agricultural subsidies play an essential role in agricultural and rural development in many developed economies. Countries have implemented agricultural subsidy policies with a focus on food security and environmental protection. Agricultural production is risky and uncertain, influencing the efficiency of agricultural subsidies. This study develops a theoretical framework to analyze the effects of production uncertainties on the efficiency of agricultural subsidy policies under the double constraints of food security and environmental protection. The basic model is investigated under six different conditions, and expanded research also is presented. Our models show that uncertainty, including output, cost, and price uncertainties, and technology conversion efficiency significantly affects the efficiency of agricultural subsidies. Under high technology conversion efficiency, output-oriented subsidies are appropriate for food security and environmental protection goals. Policymakers should take both uncertainty and production efficiency into consideration when choosing between input-oriented and output-oriented subsidy policies.     

Agricultural Productivity Growth and Household Food Security Improvement in Nepal

Nepal is one of the poorest countries in the world. Using the panel data of the Nepal Living Standard Measurement Survey (NLSS), the poverty rate in 1995–96 was estimated to be about 40%, while in 2003–04 it was estimated at roughly 30%. Political instability has prevented the development of industry and threatened the food security of poor people, but scholarship on the factors contributing to food security is incomplete; while the determinants of food security have been mentioned in past research, prior studies have analyzed cross‐sectional data and thus could not have omitted heterogeneity bias. This paper analyzes the change in agricultural productivity in real terms and the impact on household food security by using the panel data of NLSS in 1995–96 and 2003–04. This analysis reveals that growth is observed in real agricultural productivity in spite of land segmentation; the growth in agricultural productivity in real terms has a positive impact on household food security; and the lower a farmer's income becomes, the more positive its impact on food security. Therefore, advancements in agricultural productivity play a critical role in promoting food security at the individual and household levels.     

农业有机废弃物能源化对化学农业负外部性纠正研究

针对化学农业的负外部性,利用能值理论建立了基于农业生态需求的农业外部性分析模式。理论分析表明,在兼顾粮食产量目标时,农业有机废弃物能源化、生态化可以从源头纠正化学农业的负外部性。以涟水县高沟镇为例的实证分析表明,通过60%的化肥替代,农业有机废弃物能源化可以纠正85.49%的化学农业负外部性。较之“税费”“标准”“行政监管”等手段,通过产业政策手段将农业补贴政策聚焦于农业有机废弃物能源化生态补偿是一种科学性与现实性较强的政策选择。     

Integrated basin management: Water and food policy options for Turkey

This paper presents a basin scale analysis of the Nilüfer River Basin of Turkey, where agricultural, urban, and environmental users compete for scarce water in an environment where climate change and food security present large and growing challenges. It presents results of a basin scale dynamic nonlinear programming model that addresses economic efficiency, climate change, and food security. Its approach can be applied to other water-stressed regions operating in environments of economic and hydrologic constraints on water use. Basin scale modeling approach provides a general framework for formulating water management policies, consistent with the principles underlying the European Union Water Framework Directive.     

The macroeconomic and food security implications of price interventions in the Philippine rice market

The Philippine government has a number of policy interventions in the domestic rice market aimed at promoting national food security. This paper examines the economy-wide and food security implications of three of the main policies: a ceiling on prices paid by rice consumers; a floor on prices received by paddy producers; and a subsidy on prices paid for seeds by paddy farmers. These programmes have been subject to domestic criticism on allocative efficiency and distributional grounds. We examine the effects of removing the programmes using an economy-wide model with detailed treatment of agricultural activity, land use, and food security measures. We find that the programmes make a small contribution to food security, for a modest budgetary outlay. The allocative efficiency gains available from ending the programmes are small, and may be outweighed by the potential for adverse short-run macroeconomic consequences.     

Biofuel policies and the environment: Do climate benefits warrant increased production from biofuel feedstocks?

We examine whether climate benefits warrant policies promoting biofuel production from agricultural crops when other environmental impacts are accounted for. We develop a general economic-ecological modelling framework for integrated analysis of biofuel policies. An economic model of farmers' decision making is combined with a biophysical model predicting the effects of farming practices on crop yields and relevant environmental impacts. They include GHG emissions over the life cycle, nitrogen and phosphorus runoff, and the quality of wildlife habitats. We apply our model to crop production in Finland. We find that under current biofuel production technology the case for promotion of biofuels is not as evident as has been generally thought. Only reed canary grass for biodiesel is unambiguously desirable, whereas biodiesel from rape seed and ethanol production from wheat and barley cause in most cases negative net impacts on the environment. Suggested policies in the US and the EU tend to improve slightly the environmental performance of biofuel production.     

农业结构调整下国内农业支持政策的选择

农业结构调整受农业生产要素的各种约束,难度大成本高。为促进农业结构调整,提高我国农产品竞争力,应积极改革国内农业支持政策中的“绿箱”“黄箱”政策,重点为提供结构调整援助,提高粮食安全储备的效率、增加对农民培训的投入、推进农业信息体系建设等。     

Analysis of the impact of agricultural R&D investment on food security

This article investigates how agricultural R&D investment affects the food self-sufficiency ratio (SSR). Several studies have argued a causal relationship between agricultural R&D investment and food security. However, most of these studies are based on conceptual logic and few studies have conducted an empirical analysis. This study verifies whether agricultural R&D investment affects the food SSR as a representative indicator of food security. A total of 822 data sets of 41 countries have been used in the analysis in this study and include developed and developing country data over the period 1981–2009. Food self-efficiency is used as a dependent variable, and agricultural R&D investment and other variables are used as explanatory variables. The estimation results show that, first, the cereal SSR and income are in an inverted U-shaped relationship. Second, increases in land productivity increase the cereal SSR and, lastly, the cereal SSR ratio and agricultural R&D investment are in a U-shaped relationship.     

Geopolitical Maize: Peasant Seeds,Everyday Practices,and Food Security in Mexico

This paper draws from research on small-scale maize production in Mexico’s Central Highland region to discuss the geopolitical implications of everyday agricultural practices. An overwhelming majority of maize farmers in this region, as well as in the country more broadly, continue to cultivate locally adapted maize varieties they have bred themselves – criollo maize is the vernacular term – despite decades of concerted government attempts to effect the widespread adoption of commercially bred and licensed hybrid varieties. This state effort to restructure agricultural systems and food security according to nationalist and capitalist priorities is one tactic in a long and violent struggle for control over peasant land and labour in Mexico. By integrating feminist scholarship in geopolitics and in political ecology, I am following the lead of geographers who regard the materialities of everyday life as a foundation for political tensions and conflicts that are constantly unfolding along intersecting lines of difference. Though geopolitics has rarely turned its attention directly to theories of intimate socio-ecological relations, I argue that the field has much analytical and political leverage to gain by engaging with political ecology, and that feminist geographic imaginaries provide a crucial space in which to do so. This approach allows for an analysis of how a dominant geopolitics of land and agriculture is being undermined through the routine production of criollo maize, revealing new potential for creating broad political alliances with social movements that are currently working toward alternative visions of agriculture and food security.     

后疫情时代全球农业创新趋势与中以农业科技创新合作

新冠疫情全球大流行引起国际社会对未来粮食供应链安全问题的普遍担忧,部分国家奉行贸易保护主义,开始限制粮食出口,对全球粮食和食品供应产生不利影响。后疫情时代,稳定粮食供应链和食品安全成为全球关注的热点问题,以数字化技术为代表的农业新技术、新模式、新业态和新型食品技术的创新发展日益得到各国政府重视。本文对全球农业科技发展现状和后疫情时代发展趋势、以色列农业科技优势、中以农业创新合作现状以及未来推动双方农业领域创新合作的方向与路径进行了梳理、总结和思考。     

The impact of technology transfer on agribusiness performance in Kenya

ABSTRACT

This study examines how technology transfer can influence the performance of small businesses in developing countries like Kenya. The theoretical basis of the study is the technology transfer model, which integrates a consideration of the transfer provider with that of the recipient’s capacity. The study’s sample comprises 104 enterprises. Correlation and a regression model are used for content analysis. The results show that technology transfers improve small businesses’ performance and help drive rural development. The effectiveness of transferred technology has a major impact on small businesses’ competitiveness and access to international markets. These findings imply that governments must develop technology transfer strategies for small businesses in order to enhance both their performance and food security. Government policies for technology transfer should incorporate incentives for agricultural technology transfer to boost food security.     

Climatic impacts across agricultural crop yield distributions: An application of quantile regression on rice crops in Andhra Pradesh,India

Climatic impact on agricultural production is a serious concern, as it is directly linked to food security and poverty. Whereas there are empirical studies that examine this issue with parametric approaches focusing on the “mean” level of variables, few studies have addressed climatic impacts in general settings. Given this paucity, we characterize the impacts on crop yield distributions with a non-parametric approach. We examine the case of rice yield in Andhra Pradesh, India, an important state producing rice as a main crop but reported to be vulnerable to climate change. Employing 34 years of data, we apply quantile regressions to untangle the climatic impacts across the quantiles of rice yield, finding three main results. First, substantial heterogeneity in the impacts of climatic variables can be found across the yield distribution. Second, the direction of the climatic impacts on rice yield highly depends on agro-climatic zones. Third, seasonal climatic impacts on rice yield are significant. More specifically, a monsoon-dependent crop is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation, whereas a winter crop remains largely resilient to changes in the levels of climate variables. These findings clarify the idiosyncratic climatic impacts on agriculture in India, and call for location- and season-specific adaptation policies.     

Rice market integration in the Mekong River Delta1

In the last decades Vietnam has become a major supplier in the world's rice market. This position is the result of the policy reforms that have been implemented in the agricultural sector. This paper assesses the impact of the liberalization policies and focuses on the spatial price differences in the domestic rice market. The results show that price patterns correlate strongly in the Mekong River Delta. Even prices in other regions are integrated with price patterns in the South. Interestingly, private traders in the Mekong Delta are only indirectly responsible for the latter result. They satisfy local demand and deal with state‐owned enterprises (SOEs). In the framework of the national food security policy, the state‐owned food companies ‘subsidize’ transactions between the South and the North. Moreover, the state‐owned food companies still dominate export transactions. The latter issues constitute two major queries for policy makers involved in the liberalization of the rice market, as further policy measures should not jeopardize the interests of domestic rice consumers.     

The role of agricultural cooperatives in sustaining the wheat diversity and productivity: the case of southern Italy

We hypothesize that institutions such as agricultural cooperatives influence regional levels of variety diversity through input supply, processing or marketing functions. This diversity can also affect yield, a partial measure of crop productivity. We test these hypotheses with data from southern Italy, a mega-diversity spot and centre of diversity for durum wheat. Cooperatives in the southern regions of Italy process farmers’ harvests of durum wheat into bread, label it, and sell it locally. In this relatively marginalized region of the country, cooperatives enable farmers to capture more of the value of the final product and reduce marketing costs. To test the hypothesis, we apply a two-stage estimation approach with a Cobb-Douglas production function and panel data analysis. Findings suggest that the density of cooperatives in a region is associated with greater spatial diversity in wheat varieties grown, and that, over a 14-year period, this diversity positively affected crop yields.     

Adoption and impact of improved maize varieties on maize yields: Evidence from central Cameroon

This study uses both the endogenous switching regression and propensity score matching models to analyze the adoption and impact of improved maize varieties on maize yields in central Cameroon. The results show that (i) education level, agricultural training, proximity to an Institute of Agricultural Research for Development branch and farmers’ perceptions of yield and risk of improved maize varieties significantly affect the adoption of improved maize varieties and (ii) the adoption of improved maize varieties enhances maize yields. Therefore, policies designed to stimulate adoption of improved maize varieties should be promoted. Improvement of access to school and agricultural training may serve as good strategies for promoting the adoption of improved maize varieties in Cameroon.     

Adoption and the impact of system of rice intensification on rice yields and household income: an analysis for India

This paper examines the determinants and impacts of the adoption of five mutually exclusive practices System of Rice Intensification (SRI) on yields and household incomes using a multinomial endogenous treatment effects model. Farm household survey data is collected from selected districts of three States of India. Results suggest that the decision to adopt SRI is a function of experience in terms of age, farm assets, irrigation facility and information about SRI. The analysis showed that small and marginal farmers are more likely to adopt SRI as compared to large farmers. The National Food Security Mission (NFSM) came out to be significant and positive only in the case of few practices in some States. The welfare outcome results showed that the adoption increased the yield and income of three out of four practices-plant plus water, plant plus soil and plant plus water plus soil management. Briefly, the results show that the adoption of SRI especially full adoption of SRI has greater impact on the yield and income.     

ORGANIC FOOD AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE

Over the past 50 years, the rapid transformation of agricultural technology has provided the benefits of lower prices and a smaller share of income spent on food. Developing and applying synthetic chemicals was instrumental in lowering costs of production and in increasing yields. Conventional agriculture today relies on substantial use of synthetic chemicals as key inputs. This leads to increasing concern over negative externalities, including risks to both human health and the environment. In response to these concerns, organic food has emerged as a rapidly expanding industry. This paper examines the role of organic agriculture and other low-input farming methods more sustainable within the context of policies designed to reduce negative externalities from using synthetic chemicals.     

The dynamic effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on agricultural yield,wages, and food prices in India*

This paper shows that, first, the effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on agricultural yield in India are highly asymmetric: yield falls strongly after droughts, whereas excessive rainfall has only little effects. Second, our key novel finding is that the short-lived yield loss after a widespread drought elicits a persistent decline (increase) in wages (food prices), which lasts for up to five years. Third, affiliation to the same National Sample Survey region (and thus to the same state) seems to be a key determinant of internal migration, whereas distance appears more relevant for food arbitrage trading.     

Weather Index Drought Insurance: An Ex Ante Evaluation for Millet Growers in Niger

In the Sudano-Sahelian region, which includes South Niger, the inter-annual variability of the rainy season is high and irrigation is limited. As a consequence, bad rainy seasons have a massive impact on crop yield and regularly result in food crises. Traditional insurance policies based on crop damage assessment are not available because of asymmetric information and high transaction costs compared to the value of production. We assess the risk mitigation capacity of an alternative form of insurance which has been implemented at a large scale in India since 2003: insurance based on a weather index. We compare the efficiency of various weather indices to increase the expected utility of a representative risk-averse farmer. We show the importance of using plot-level yield data rather than village averages, which bias results due to the presence of idiosyncratic shocks. We also illustrate the need for out-of-sample estimations in order to avoid overfitting. Even with the appropriate index and assuming substantial risk aversion, we find a limited gain of implementing insurance, which roughly corresponds to, or slightly exceeds, the cost observed in India for implementing such insurance policies. However, when we separately treat the plots with and without fertilisers separately, we see that the benefit of insurance is slightly higher in the former case. This suggests that insurance policies may slightly increase the use of risk-increasing inputs such as fertilisers and improved cultivars, and hence improve average yields, which remain very low in the region.     

全球气候变暖背景下农业干旱灾害与粮食安全——基于西南五省面板数据的实证研究

干旱灾害是我国农业生产的最大风险,严重影响农产品生产供给与粮食安全。通过构建农业干旱灾害与粮食安全之间的计量模型,利用西南五省样本数据,实证检验了1997—2008年间农业干旱灾害对粮食安全的影响。结果表明,农业干旱灾害对粮食安全具有明显的影响。由此提出应对全球气候变暖下农业干旱灾害风险的策略:加强农田水利基础设施建设,通过增强水资源的时空调配能力达到农业抵御干旱灾害风险;选育耐旱作物品种,提高作物干旱忍耐力;调整粮食生产布局,在高旱灾频率地区,减少高耗水作物生产等。