Quantile spillovers and dependence between Bitcoin,equities and strategic commodities

This paper has two aims. We first examine the dynamic spillovers between Bitcoin and 12 developed equities, gold, and crude oil for different market conditions using a Bayesian Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with daily spot prices. Our econometric approach enables us to capture the left and right tails as well as the shoulders of the return distribution corresponding to volatility spillovers under the bear, normal, and bull market states among these financial assets. We quantify and trace the dependence and directional predictability from Bitcoin to other assets using the sample cross-quantilogram. Our key findings offer convincing evidence of time variation in the level of volatility. Spillovers between Bitcoin and other financial assets intensify during extreme global market conditions. Secondly, results from the cross-quantilogram indicate strong dependence and positive directional predictability between Bitcoin and most equities and crude oil when market returns are bullish. However, during the bearish market period, there is negative dependence and predictability from Bitcoin to stocks in Finland, the Netherlands, the U.S.A, and the crude oil market only. This implies that Bitcoin can act as a hedge to stocks in Finland, the Netherlands, the U.S.A, and the crude oil market. However, insignificant dependence and directional predictability from Bitcoin to the remaining assets indicate that Bitcoin may act as a safe-haven to these assets during bearish markets. Our findings hold important implications for both international investors and portfolio managers who consider Bitcoin as part of their portfolio diversification and other investment strategies.     

Spillovers between Bitcoin and other assets during bear and bull markets

This article contributes to the embryonic literature on the relations between Bitcoin and conventional investments by studying return and volatility spillovers between this largest cryptocurrency and four asset classes (equities, stocks, commodities, currencies and bonds) in bear and bull market conditions. We conducted empirical analyses based on a smooth transition VAR GARCH-in-mean model covering daily data from 19 July 2010 to 31 October 2017. We found significant evidence that Bitcoin returns are related quite closely to those of most of the other assets studies, particularly commodities, and therefore, the Bitcoin market is not isolated completely. The significance and sign of the spillovers exhibited some differences in the two market conditions and in the direction of the spillovers, with greater evidence that Bitcoin receives more volatility than it transmits. Our findings have implications for investors and fund managers who are considering Bitcoin as part of their investment strategies and for policymakers concerned about the vulnerability that Bitcoin represents to the stability of the global financial system.     

Evaluation by the Aumann and Serrano performance index and Sharpe ratio: Bitcoin performance

We compare Bitcoin performance based on the Aumann and Serrano performance index and Sharpe ratio assuming that asset returns follow the class of discrete normal mixture distributions. The Aumann and Serrano performance index can take into account higher moments of the underlying distribution of assets and is relevant for risk-averse investors. We evaluate Bitcoin performance based on the Aumann and Serrano index relative to the performance of other assets. Our evaluation shows that Bitcoin is rated highly by the Sharpe ratio but rated very poorly by the Aumann and Serrano index. We also find some stock assets can beat Bitcoin by the Sharpe ratio when an investment horizon is monthly.     

Can volume predict Bitcoin returns and volatility? A quantiles-based approach

Prior studies on the price formation in the Bitcoin market consider the role of Bitcoin transactions at the conditional mean of the returns distribution. This study employs in contrast a non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test to analyse the causal relation between trading volume and Bitcoin returns and volatility, over the whole of their respective conditional distributions. The nonparametric characteristics of our test control for misspecification due to nonlinearity and structural breaks, two features of our data that cover 19th December 2011 to 25th April 2016. The causality-in-quantiles test reveals that volume can predict returns – except in Bitcoin bear and bull market regimes. This result highlights the importance of modelling nonlinearity and accounting for the tail behaviour when analysing causal relationships between Bitcoin returns and trading volume. We show, however, that volume cannot help predict the volatility of Bitcoin returns at any point of the conditional distribution.     

Safe havens in the face of Presidential election uncertainty: A comparison between Bitcoin,oil and precious metals

Even though the empirical literature on safe haven properties of different assets with respect to financial risks is increasing, their abilities to safeguard against political risks has not been the subject of large empirical investigations. This paper uses an Empirical Mode Decomposition-based approach to look into the time-varying role of different assets (in particular, oil, precious metals and Bitcoin) as a safe haven against U.S. stocks in times of heightened uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Our results suggest that oil can act as an effective safe haven against political risk exposure; but such property varies over time. The abilities of gold and silver to provide positive returns during downturns have been also documented in the medium-and the long-term. Bitcoin also serves as a safe haven against U.S. stock losses but in the short-term. These findings provide useful and relevant information to investors to help ensure better asset allocation in an uncertain environment.     

Trade uncertainties and the hedging abilities of Bitcoin

In this paper, we first estimate the monthly realised correlation, based on daily data, between stock returns of the United States (US) and Bitcoin returns. Then, we relate the realised correlation over the period October 2011 to May 2019 with a news-based measure of the growth of trade uncertainty of the US. Our results show that the realised correlation is negatively impacted by increases in trade uncertainty, which continues to hold under alternative robustness checks, suggesting that Bitcoin can act as a hedge relative to the conventional stock market in the wake of heightened trade policy-related uncertainties, and provide diversification benefits for investors.     

The valuation of patents using third-party data: the Ocean Tomo 300 Patent Index

This study is the first investigation of the ability of the financial marketplace to value patent assets via exploiting the informational content of a widely quoted stock market patent index known as the Ocean Tomo 300 Patent Index (OT 300). The results suggest that the OT 300 ‘works,’ in the sense that the index generates buy-and-hold returns economically and statistically in excess of those of the market as a whole as well as a specially created 300-firm benchmark portfolio composed of other very liquid patent-holding firms.     

Housing market volatility connectedness among G7 countries

This study investigates international linkages among housing markets in the G7 countries, using the connectedness methodology developed in Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2015). We find that volatility connectedness varies over the business cycle, with a surge during the global financial crisis. We also show that the United States and Italy were major net transmitters of housing market volatility shocks to other countries during the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis, respectively.     

公允价值与股市过度反应——来自中国证券市场的经验证据

本文以我国2007年至2010年16个季度公告日为样本,以公允价值变动损益和股票回报为观察对象,对公允价值与股市过度反应进行了实证研究。研究发现:(1)股市过度反应与公允价值变动损益显著相关;(2)过度反应主要存在于估计窗口而非事件窗口;(3)我国金融业上市公司的金融资产市值计量模式显著放大了股市泡沫,且在不同的市场条件下,股票回报对公允价值的过度反应程度呈现出非对称性。本文扩展了事件研究法,给出了公允价值引起股市过度反应的具体标准,重点检验了估计窗口的信息含量,使之更加适应于公允价值资产市值计量模式的研究。本文验证了公允价值作为"会计加速器"作用的存在,有助于理解公允价值计量模式对我国金融稳定的影响机理。     

Profit persistence and stock returns

This article attempts to assemble further empirical evidence on the relationship between the product and the financial market. Drawing back on work in industrial organization, we analyse the relationship between profit persistence and factor-adjusted stock returns looking at about 2000 listed US firms over the last 34 years. While the relationship between (current, lagged and unexpected) profits/earnings and returns has been extensively analysed before, to our knowledge this is the first study to look at the relationship between stock returns and profit persistence. We interpret profit persistence as a result of market competition and innovation of the firm. It is shown that firm-specific long-run profit persistence after correction for other additional economic fundamentals of the firm has a positive impact on four-factor adjusted returns and a negative impact on their volatility.     

Oil Price Shocks and Volatility in Australian Stock Returns

This paper examines the effect of oil shocks on return and volatility in the sectors of Australian stock market and finds significant effects for most sectors. For the overall market index, an increase in oil price return significantly reduces return, and an increase in oil price return volatility significantly reduces volatility. An advantage of looking at sector returns rather than a general index of stock returns is that sectors may well differ markedly in how they respond to oil price shocks. The energy and material sectors (as expected) and the financial sector (surprisingly) are out of step (in different ways) with results for the other sectors and for the overall index. A rise in oil price increases returns in the energy and material sectors and an increase in oil price return volatility increases stock return volatility in the financial sector. Explanation for the negative (positive) association between oil return (oil return volatility) and returns (volatility of returns) in the financial sector must be based on the association via lending to and/or holdings of corporate bonds issued by firms with significant exposure to oil price fluctuations and their speculative positions in oil‐related instruments.     

The static and dynamic connectedness of environmental,social, and governance investments: International evidence

We investigate the connectedness of the most significant global equity indices that comprise companies with the highest environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance. Motivated by the rapid growth of socially responsible investing during the last two decades, we examine whether these investments are prone to similar exogenous economic and financial shocks as their conventional counterparts. Employing a variety of influential macroeconomic and financial variables over the period 10/1/2007–4/15/2020, we document statistically significant and consistent transmissions between the employed equity indices throughout the sample period. In particular, the connectedness exhibits dynamic patterns during three periods: the European sovereign debt crisis, the systemic Greek problems, and the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. We also find that developed equity markets are the shock transmitters to Asian and other emerging markets. Our results highlight the risk of contagion and the diminishing portfolio diversification benefits of these equity indices during turbulent periods.     

Global predictive power of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market

Given the pace of increasing globalization and the pioneering role of the U.S. economy, we anlayze the global impact of the U.S. equity market’s uncertainty. The asymmetric impact of upside (downside) uncertainty, related with the upward (downward) movements of the underlying assets, has raised substantial concerns recently. We comprehensively analyze the global predictability of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market, implied by S&P-500 calls and puts, respectively. We contribute to the literature on the asymmetric impacts of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market in an international setting. Our study also complements the study on predicting international stock returns. Moreover, substantial economic value can be generated from the perspective of asset allocation. The main channel for the positive (negative) predictability of upside (downside) variance stems from its positive (negative) impacts on international investment, highlighting the leading role of the U.S. economy.     

Liquidity and Twin Crises

This paper proposes a simple analytical framework for understanding 'twin crises'– i.e. crises where a currency crisis and banking crisis occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. The distinguishing feature of such crises is the spill‐over effects across financial institutions through collateral constraints, declines in market values of assets, currency mismatches on the balance sheet and the endogenous amplification of financial distress through asset sales. We explore the role of liquidity and the role of monetary policy in such crises. In particular, a central question is whether raising interest rates in the face of a twin crisis is the appropriate policy response. Raising interest rates has two countervailing effects. Holding the domestic currency becomes more attractive (other things being equal), but the value of the domestic banking system falls due to the fall in asset prices. When assets are marked to market, there is a potential for endogenously generated financial distress that leads to a collapse of asset prices, as well as the exchange rate. It is thus possible that raising interest rates can have the perverse effect of exacerbating both the currency crisis and the banking crisis.     

How international financial flows affect stock markets?

Relying on the IMF Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey, which reports countries’ bilateral investments in financial assets at end-2001 to end-2015, this article shows that a country’s stock market growth is not only spatially correlated with those of nearby countries, but also positively associated with the magnitude of connectedness of the country’s international investments in debt within a dynamic financial investment flow network. The positive relation arises because debts have become an increasingly important source of capital for developing countries.     

MARKET REACTIONS TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FINANCIAL HOLDING COMPANY ACT IN TAIWAN

Abstract. We examine how financial institutions react to various events surrounding the passage of Taiwan's Financial Holding Company Act in June 2001. Empirical results indicate that the financial system experiences significant abnormal returns along the legislative process. Smaller firms have significantly higher abnormal returns, thus lending no support for the hypothesis that larger firms benefit more from the Act. Further analysis shows that the significance of market value is replaced by a significant securities industry effect, thereby consistent with the observation that Taiwan's securities firms are generally smaller in market values and are potential target firms for financial holding companies.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF BETAS IN PRESENCE OF NONTRADED ASSETS

This study considers a capital assets pricing model (CAPM) in an incomplete financial market wherein not all risky assets are traded and the risk from non‐traded assets is not orthogonal to that of the existing or traded assets. The model shows the extent of the divergence of the CAPM betas (true betas) from the traditional CAPM betas (perceived betas) in market equilibrium conditions in an incomplete market. Specifically, it implies that the more incomplete a financial market is, the wider is the discrepancy between the true and perceived betas, and the distribution of the perceived betas tends to centre more around 1 in an incomplete market than that of true betas. Empirical evidence in various settings support these results.     

Investigating the dynamic relationship between cryptocurrencies and conventional assets: Implications for financial investors

Cryptocurrencies are gradually establishing themselves as a new class of assets with unique features, although there remains skepticism and a lack of understanding of their nature. In this study, we compare the financial properties of these new digital assets and investigate their dynamic relationship with major financial securities and commodities. Furthermore, we evaluate the economic and financial potential benefits of cryptocurrencies for financial investors. Using different time-varying copula approaches and bivariate dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models, we find that the cross-correlation with conventional assets is changing over time but weak, supporting the idea that these cryptocurrencies can be suitable for financial diversification. However, our analysis of portfolios shows that cryptocurrencies are poor hedging instruments in most of the considered cases. Moreover, we find that the relationship between cryptocurrencies and conventional assets is sensitive to external economic and financial shocks.     

Is market liquidity less resilient after the financial crisis? Evidence for US Treasuries

Understanding market liquidity resilience, i.e. the capacity of liquidity to absorb shocks, of United States Treasuries is crucial from a financial stability standpoint. The conventional resilience measure has limitations due to the use of the liquidity level. We propose a new complementary approach to analyze resilience based on liquidity volatility. For this purpose, we focus on the link between returns volatility and liquidity volatility, which is a relatively unexplored field. We fit a bivariate conditional correlation (CC-) GARCH model for the 10-year bond returns and five liquidity indicators from January 2003 to June 2016 to analyze persistence and spillovers between these variables in a parsimonious way. We find that after the crisis, spillovers between liquidity volatility and returns volatility are higher, feedback loops are more likely and volatility persistence is lower, which is consistent with a lower resilience. Our results help to explain recent episodes of high volatility in this market.     

Firm-specific information and systemic risk

Although there is substantial literature linking news to the asset return volatility of a single asset, little attention has been paid to how news influences the relationships between firms. This paper addresses this issue by examining how firm-specific scheduled and unscheduled news arrivals influence the systemic risk of individual firms based on a sample of 47 US financial institutions. Whereas negative surprises from scheduled news announcements and a higher rate of unscheduled news both increase the systemic risk of a firm, positive news surprises decrease this systemic risk. In addition, negative scheduled news and a higher rate of unscheduled news across the sector increases the total connectedness or systemic risk across the sector as a whole. These effects are magnified when the market is already in distress. The results indicate that regulators should consider more than volatility and pay attention to the news flow when monitoring systemic risk.