封闭资本市场条件下农户生产性资本投入与资产积累——基于系统动力学的分析

笔者在封闭资本市场条件下,基于农户追求家庭资产最大化的假设,利用系统动力学,建立农户家庭资产积累模型,对农户保险支出、教育支出以及资产与劳动冲击对家庭资产积累的过程进行了模拟。结论显示,保险支出对农户长期家庭资产积累的作用不大;教育支出随着时间的推移对家庭资产积累的作用越来越明显;另外,对以劳动为主要收入来源的农户来说,农户的家庭资产积累对劳动冲击更加敏感。该研究在得出结论的同时,检验了系统动力学在农户家庭资产积累研究中的应用。     

中国家庭债务、房价波动与居民消费的动态相关性分析

笔者采用1997年～2009年相关统计数据,考察了中国家庭债务、房价波动与居民消费之间的动态相关性.研究发现,从长期来看,家庭债务、房价波动与居民消费存在均衡关系,房价波动对居民消费影响显著,但家庭债务拉动居民消费的直接效应较小;从短期波动关系来看,当居民消费的短期波动偏离长期均衡时,将以-0.42的调整力度把非均衡状态拉到均衡状态.要刺激居民消费需求,应加快金融市场建设,注重发挥住房的财富效应并合理配置家庭资产结构.     

中国城镇居民家庭资产—负债现状与成因研究

利用2009年"中国城镇居民经济状况与心态调查"数据,本文细致考察了中国城镇居民家庭资产—负债的现状与成因。描述性统计表明,家庭资产随着户主年龄、教育程度和家庭收入水平提高而上升,家庭负债则恰恰相反,家庭资产—负债存在明显的地域差异。实证研究发现,户主的年龄、受教育程度和健康状况以及家庭收入和人口规模不仅是家庭是否拥有资产/负债最重要的决定因素,也是家庭资产负债额的重要影响因素;进一步研究表明,家庭净资产也主要受到这些因素的影响,但其影响程度因家庭净资产量不同而不同。本文进而研究了家庭资产—负债状况的稳定性,发现户主年龄较小、教育水平较低和健康状况较差以及人口规模较大的家庭更容易受到金融市场不利冲击的影响。     

金融知识、财富积累和家庭资产结构

本文用中国家庭金融调查2013年数据,研究发现金融知识通过优化家庭资产组合显著促进了家庭财富积累,这表现为具有较高金融知识水平的家庭会将资产更多地配置到金融资产上,尤其是风险金融资产上;同时会降低其在非金融资产上的配置,但会提高生产经营性资产的配置.分位数回归结果表明,金融知识对低资产家庭财富积累影响更大;异质性分析结果表明,金融知识对农村地区、高年龄组和低教育水平家庭财富积累的边际影响更大.此外,基于对中国家庭金融调查2014和2015年最新季度数据的分析发现,金融知识会显著促进家庭财富增长,这进一步证实了金融知识对财富积累的积极作用.     

严防有毒资产证券化

如果掂量中国金融资产的质量,地方债务居高不下,不断积累的房地产泡沫和各种风险交错的权益类资产,或许会改变人们对中国资产证券化的信心。     

房价对家庭债务和财富分布的影响：理论机制与应对策略

当前住房和房贷分别是中国家庭资产和负债的主要构成部分,那么房价如何影响家庭债务和财富分布?本文基于动态一般均衡框架对这一问题进行了系统研究,结果表明：信贷驱动型房价上涨会产生两方面影响。一方面会使部分具有购房能力家庭通过配置房产跃升为财富水平更高家庭,增加负债家庭中高收入群体比重,促进家庭债务和财富分布结构优化。另一方面,会提高新增购房家庭配置房产难度并引发购房家庭中低收入群体债务扩张的乘数效应,降低其财富分配权重,抑制家庭债务和财富分布结构优化。数值模拟结果表明,后者的作用效果更强。收入驱动型和需求驱动型房价上涨能够提高购房家庭中低收入群体的财富分配权重,起到改善家庭债务和财富分布结构的作用。政策应对方面,“家庭负债收入比”可以作为区分房贷扩张“好”与“坏”的信号变量,盯住其对房贷供给进行动态监管,在一定程度上既能抑制具有潜在金融风险的“坏”房贷繁荣,也能保障家庭用于改善资产状况和提高效用水平的“好”房贷需求。     

贫富差距、债务经济与金融危机——基于资产分布视角的美国金融危机成因探讨

本文从家庭资产分布变化的视角,探讨了近30年来美国社会贫富差距急剧扩大的现象,分析了它的特征、原因和影响,在此基础上讨论了美国的贫富分化、债务经济与金融危机之间的必然联系,以及政府角色定位和政策导向在其中的作用。本文研究有助于深刻认识资产分布两极化的结构特征,为未来我国准确识别居民家庭资产分布变化趋势并采取适时有效的措施提供参考。     

主观预期寿命对家庭资产配置的影响——基于CHARLS数据的经验分析

本文在基于生命周期的资产配置模型中引入主观预期寿命,对主观预期寿命、遗赠动机对中国家庭资产配置的影响进行分析。运用中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,本文的实证研究结果表明：中老年居民的主观预期寿命是理性的,该指标在研究家庭金融决策问题上具有重要的参考意义;主观预期寿命的增长显著提升了家庭持有政府债券和风险资产的可能性,并增加了家庭在相应资产上的配置。遗赠动机会弱化主观预期寿命增长对家庭持有相应资产的可能性和配置比例的正向影响。通过使用多种估计方法和代理变量,笔者发现上述结论是稳健的。     

认知能力与家庭资产选择

本文采用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,研究了认知能力对中国城市家庭金融市场参与和家庭资产选择的影响。本文用字词识记能力和数学能力这两个维度来衡量认知能力的大小。研究结果表明:在控制了受教育年限和金融知识水平的情况下,字词识记能力和数学能力的增加都会推动城市家庭参与金融市场,并增加城市家庭在风险资产尤其是股票资产上的配置比例。这一结论对于高收入家庭和金融知识水平较低的家庭仍然成立。除此之外,本研究还发现:家庭的社会互动强度、互联网的使用频率、健康水平等因素的提高也会推动家庭参与金融市场并投资购买风险资产。     

农村非正规金融对多维资产贫困的减贫效应研究——基于CFPS微观家庭调查数据的分析

资产扶贫具有重要的主体培育和增能作用。本文在多维贫困理论和测度方法基础上构建了多维资产贫困指数,运用2012年和2014年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,实证分析了农村家庭资产贫困的特征事实和非正规金融的多维减贫效应。研究发现:农村家庭资产缺乏现象较为普遍,无论是低收入家庭还是高收入家庭的资产积累都不理想;农村土地与住房的资产效应太弱导致高收入家庭将财富转化为住房资产时遭受了更严重的"隐性剥夺"。农村非正规金融对家庭收入与资产积累产生了显著的逆向分配作用,其更多地有利于中高收入家庭而不利于中低收入家庭多维资产贫困的减缓,由此扩大了农村中高与中低收入家庭多维资产贫困不平等程度。据此,应着手构建资产扶贫的政策体系,这对于乡村振兴及资产扶贫赋予脱贫人口持续发展能力意义重大。     

Household Debt,Consumption, and Income Inequality

Using the Johansen and Engle–Granger cointegration tests, we show that there is one cointegrating relationship between household debt, consumption, and income inequality in the United States for the period from 1929 to 2009. Given this result, we use a Vector Error-Correction model to further understand the dynamics among the three variables. Results indicate that increases in income inequality and consumption directly contribute to increases in household debt. Interestingly, the results reveal some feedback from household debt to income inequality. We also show that debt-driven consumption should be viewed with caution as the results show that increases in household debt correspond with future declines in the rate of consumption.     

Household Finances and Social Interaction: Bayesian Analysis of Household Panel Data

We investigate the relationship between social interaction and household finances using the British Household Panel Survey. We explore the relationship between a wide range of aspects of household finances and social interaction, rather than focusing on one particular facet of household finances, such as the holding of stocks and shares. We develop a Bayesian statistical framework to simultaneously explore both sides of the household balance sheet—liabilities and assets. Additionally, we allow the influence of social interaction on household finances to be time dependent, enabling us to model the effects of social interaction from a dynamic perspective. We also develop a two‐part model to jointly investigate the influence of social interaction on the amount of different types of debt and financial assets held conditional on holding the different types of debt and assets. Our analysis suggests that social interaction is associated with households holding larger amounts of debt and assets.     

社会资本累积与家庭收入分化

已有的研究表明,社会资本累积对经济增长和家庭收入增长会产生重要影响,居民家庭社会资本存量存在显著差异,但在其累积过程中却不存在明显的城乡差别,家庭居住地的经济环境和政府行为对家庭社会资本的累积无显著影响,社会资本累积对家庭收入的影响并不显著。     

On the determinants of household debt maturity choice

This article jointly analyses a behavioural and a cultural concept to explain household debt portfolio choice. The behavioural approach explores the role of time preferences on household debt maturity in a theoretical model and a numerical analysis. We derive a positive relationship between the long-term discount factor δ and the optimal maturity of household loans. The cultural approach examines whether national culture is a reasonable predictor for household debt maturity. We show that culture is an important factor for households’ borrowing decisions and has even more predictive power than time preferences. Countries with higher scores on the Hofstede dimension of long-term orientation tend to have shorter household debt maturity. Time preferences incur a primarily mediating role, because the effect of national culture on the borrowing decision is reduced, as the long-term discount factor δ increases.     

Household Debt and Financial Constraints in Australia

Over the past decade, household debt (as a share of household income) has reached historically high levels. This has raised concerns about whether, as a result of the rise in debt, households are now more financially ‘fragile'. Using household survey data, a logit model is constructed to examine the relationship between the probability of being financially constrained and the economic and demographic characteristics of households in Australia. We find that the probability of a household being constrained is significantly affected by demographic and economic variables such as age, home ownership, weekly household income, and the share of income going to repayments on mortgage debt. Comparing survey results across time, it appears that the overall proportion of households that are financially constrained has fallen or, at worst, remained unchanged between 1994 and 2001. Much of the rise in debt appears to have been due to unconstrained households taking on more debt. As such, the rise in the aggregate debt to income ratio associated with owner‐occupier mortgages appears to be the result of voluntary household choice and not to be associated with an increase in household financial distress.     

A Systemic Debt Payoff Policy

The average family in the US takes on debt to buy homes, to get education, and sometimes to even pay for normal daily expenditures. Outstanding debt generates a stream of rents to creditors and has become a significant burden on many households. A policy of household debt forgiveness could increase both economic equality and individual liberty. Under what conditions might such a policy be socially acceptable and what would be the implications of such a policy? For debt forgiveness to gain social acceptance the U.S. population would have to perceive the policy as fair and believe that such a program would treat all households equally. Furthermore, any such policy would be politically impossible if it stripped asset owners of money due or would not substantially lower household debt levels. This article explores some possible parameters that a politically feasible policy would contain, and it offers an estimate of policy costs.     

Debt Overhang and Deleveraging in the US Household Sector: Gauging the Impact on Consumption

Using a novel data set for the U.S. states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of U.S. consumption since 2007 in the aftermath of the housing bubble. By separating the concepts of deleveraging and debt overhang—a flow and a stock effect—we find that excessive indebtedness exerted a meaningful drag on consumption over and beyond wealth and income effects. The overall effect, however, is modest—‐around one sixth of the slowdown in consumption between 2000–06 and 2007–12—and mostly driven by states with particularly large imbalances in their household sector. This might be indicative of non‐linearities, whereby indebtedness begins to bite only when misalignments from sustainable debt dynamics become excessive.     

农户投资行为实证研究

农户投资水平如何是现在及将来影响到农业发展的关键性问题。农户投资行为分析具有很强的现实意义。本文对影响农户投资行为的几个关键因素———农户收入、农地收益、农地规模、农业贷款、承包期等如何影响农户投资及影响程度进行实证研究 ,来说明如何提高农户投资水平。     

Household debt and spending during the financial crisis: Evidence from Danish micro data

We use data for nearly 500,000 Danish households to study the relationship between household leverage prior to the financial crisis of 2007–2009 and the development in spending over the course of the crisis. We find a strong negative correlation between pre-crisis leverage and the change in spending during the crisis. This reflects that highly levered households spent a larger share of their income than their less-levered peers prior to the crisis, resulting in larger increases in debt in these years. Once we condition on the size of the pre-crisis change in debt, a high level of debt is no longer associated with a larger spending decline. Our results suggest that the larger decline in spending among high-leverage households is the result of a spending normalization pattern that is also found in other years, rather than a causal effect of high debt levels suppressing household spending during the crisis.