中国养老基金战略资产配置实证分析

本文以2000年1月1日—2008年7月31日期间的股票市场数据、债券市场数据和货币市场数据为基础编制股票收益率指数、债券收益率指数和现金资产收益率指数,通过对上述三指数均值方差最优化方法来实证分析中国养老基金的战略资产配置问题。研究结果表明:中国养老基金需要配置30%左右的股票资产来提高长期收益水平,投资股票不仅可以抵御通货膨胀对养老基金的侵蚀,还可以分散基金投资风险。建议社保基金监管部门放宽对个人账户基金和企业年金的股票投资限制。     

浅析新形势下澳大利亚养老基金改革

澳大利亚三大支柱养老保障模式拥有多层次的养老保障基金保证其制度的顺利运行.但是,人口老龄化和全球金融危机为其将来的顺利发展提出了严峻的挑战.为此,澳大利亚政府一方面推出一系列措施对超级年金进行改革,另一方面建立未来基金,专门应对预期可能出现的养老保障资金不足的风险.这些措施值得各国借鉴和学习.     

关于建立专业养老金管理公司的可行性分析与政策建议

确立中国现代企业年金制度的两个《试行办法》（以下简称20和23号令）颁布3年以来，中国企业年金发展迅速，取得了许多重要成就：企业年金制度框架雏形已见；企业年金基金治理结构不断完善；市场运营机制初步建立；资产规模不断发展扩大，企业年金资产积累迅速，截止到2006年底，有2．4万多家企业建立企业年金，参加职工人数达964万人，积累基金910亿元，其中，按新办法管理运营的企业年金基金已达160亿元。     

“美国资产购买计划”对我国股市及人民币币值的影响研究

美国金融危机是由于美联储历次降息,银行放款次贷条件加之楼市高涨等多重原因促成的,危机之后为应对危机美联储分别实行了三次量化宽松的货币政策,而历次QE政策最主要的手段就是扩大资产购买,增加货币投放。本文将立足于历次QE政策的影响分析资产购买与股市波动的因果关系,并根据中国通胀现状探讨美国资产购买对人民币币值的影响。     

中国与澳大利亚应对国际金融危机采取的社会保障措施比较研究

中国在应对2008年国际金融危机中开始重视社会保障对危机的缓冲作用。澳大利亚是发达国家在2008年国际金融危机中运用社会保障措施应对危机的成功例子。比较两国政府在应对国际金融危机中运用的社会保障措施,有助于我们今后更好地处理和应对经济社会发展中出现的各种不确定性,使社会保障制度真正发挥更大的保障作用。总体来说,在应对国际金融危机过程中,澳大利亚的社会保障制度是"收入引导型",而中国的社会保障制度是"社会救济型"。     

我国企业年金的发展及投资管理研究

寻求企业年金资产的有效投资,无论是对于企业年金计划参加者的利益,还是对企业年金的可持续发展都有十分重要的意义。本文通过对我国企业年金的发展现状的分析,进而对企业年金基金投资管理进行研究,并对促进我国企业年金更好更快地发展和完善企业年金基金的投资管理提出了相关建议。     

财税体制改革背景下的企业年金税收优惠政策研究

财税体制改革影响到社会经济生活的方方面面,特别是在我国人口日益老龄化,养老危机不断加重的今天,税收优惠政策对于化解我国养老危机,促进建立"三支柱"养老保障体系发挥着极其重要的作用。完善和实施税收优惠政策已经成为促进我国企业年金发展的关键要素。企业年金作为养老保障体系的第二支柱,正受到越来越多国家关注,年金收入已成为很多国家职工退休收入的主要来源。而我国职工退休收入主要来源于"第一支柱"基本养老保险,"第二支柱"企业年金却发展及其滞后,这种不平衡局面已经严重影响到我国养老保障体系安全。文章将企业年金税收政策置于我国财税体制改革总体背景之下进行考察,通过分析影响制约企业年金发展的因素,提出了完善我国企业年金税收优惠政策的措施。     

养老保险多层次互动

我国多层次养老保险体制是基本养老保险、企业年金和个人储蓄性养老保险相结合的老年经济保障制度.三个层次的互动发展是市场经济改革与发展的必然要求.实现三个层次各自的发展向互动发展的转变的思路是:适度化基本养老保险金替代率;改进保险资金投资运营;政策支持企业年金和商业人寿保险;商业寿险公司更新经营观念.     

全面建成多层次养老保障体系的路径探讨——基于公共、私人养老金混合发展的国际经验借鉴

在多层次养老保障体系中,公共养老金与私人养老金呈混合发展态势。从国际经验看,国家推动私人养老金的发展模式主要有税收激励的自发型、协议退出型、劳动契约型和国家强制型四类。我国多层次养老保障体系内部面临突出的结构性失衡问题,主要表现在二、三支柱养老金发展滞后。我国应实施多层次混合型养老保障体系的整合发展战略,调整基本养老保险制度、为年金市场发展提供空间,打通二、三支柱养老金账户,加强立法和税优政策支持。     

国际经济形势新变化对我国出口贸易的影响与应对措施

2007年下半年以来,世界宏观经济形势发生了明显变化,我国作为贸易大国出现了出口额大幅减少、失业人数增加等问题,造成了企业资产缩水、经营危机等困难。我国出口贸易的发展、贸易出口的目的地、出口商品的结构、出口贸易环境都受到了很大的影响。本文通过分析国际经济形势变化对我国出口贸易的影响,提出一些应对措施。     

Planning Retirement Income in Australia: Routes through the Maze

Individual retirees face a daunting task when they consider how best to invest their accumulated superannuation account and non-superannuation savings. This article highlights the fact that there is rarely an obvious decision in this choice and that the optimal decision depends on a number of factors. These factors include the valuation criterion adopted, the level of benefits, the individual's income level, the means-tests, the tax rates on income and superannuation benefits and the person's life expectancy. The optimal behaviour at retirement is significantly affected by the individual characteristics of relative lifetime earnings and post-retirement rates of mortality.     

Retirement planning in the light of changing demographics

With increasing longevity and decreasing fertility rates, governments and policy makers are increasingly engaged in the question of long term retirement planning. In many cases this has included emphasising the need for individuals to take more responsibility for their own retirement planning through tax incentives, compulsion and changes to the age at which state retirement benefits become available. In the case of Australia, as is considered here, long term retirement planning has been focused around the development of a compulsory defined contribution (DC) superannuation system. Here we investigate the interaction between population ageing and the sustainability of the superannuation system by modelling a general superannuation scheme to compare the adequacy of retirement funds under a number of alternative scenarios. The model incorporates stochastic longevity forecasts and provides insight into the sufficiency of compulsory retirement saving both now and future. We find that the current pension scheme is more robust to longevity improvements for mid-class individuals however significant gaps arise for low-income individuals as longevity improves. Without addressing these issues, government expenditure is expected to increase substantially.     

Australian Government Policy on Retirement Incomes*

Australia has evolved an unusual dual system of retirement incomes support. There is a means-tested flat rate age pension and a system of occupational superannuation receiving considerable tax concessions. The current system gives rise to four major problems. These are enumerated and possible options for reform discussed.     

The Case for Gender-Sensitive Superannuation Plan Design

A key feature of superannuation plan design is the assumption that members have long and continuous periods of employment over which contributions are made. This heroic design feature has led to debate on the adequacy of superannuation plans for those with interrupted employment, particularly the adverse impacts this has on the retirement income prospects of women. This paper employs non-parametric stochastic simulation to investigate two possible solutions to gender inequality in superannuation, higher contribution rates and more aggressive asset allocation. Our results suggest that while both these strategies in isolation are effective in reducing the current gender disparity in superannuation outcomes, they demand significant changes to current arrangements when employed individually to address the problem. A combined approach is found to be more powerful in ensuring a more equitable superannuation outcome for women, as it nullifies the relative disadvantage of interrupted employment with only modest changes to contribution rates and asset allocation.     

Pensions,Ageing and Retirement in Australia: Long‐Term Projections and Policies

Australia's retirement income provision system, comprising the ‘three pillars’ of a means‐tested aged pension, mandatory occupational superannuation and other, voluntary long‐term savings, is at the heart of understanding the fiscal implications of ageing. While the Intergenerational Report, an account of long‐term fiscal sustainability, is celebrating its tenth birthday since the first edition was published, the Superannuation Guarantee, first implemented in 1992, turns a sprightly 20 years old. This article considers the Intergenerational Report as a prism for studying fiscal, demographic and policy developments in the Australian retirement income system over the last decade and into the future.     

The ATO Longitudinal Information Files (ALife): A New Resource for Retirement Policy Research

The Australian Taxation Office release of annual longitudinally linked individual tax and superannuation records, known as the ATO Longitudinal Information Files (ALife), opens up opportunities for new research. In this study, we provide an overview of ALife, focusing on its use for retirement income research. To this end, we provide the first longitudinal estimates of superannuation outcomes for 1-year birth cohorts. Results show marked increase in disparity of super balances in the lead-up to retirement as those in the top quartile ramp-up their contributions, possibly to take advantage of the favourable tax treatment of superannuation income in retirement years.     

Compulsory Superannuation and Labour Market Responses

Compulsory contributions to superannuation have significant second round effects on labour market outcomes. The effects of employer, employee and government contributions are compared and contrasted for markets with different degrees of wage flexibility. With a flexible wage, the market wage adjusts to offset most of the initial effects of the superannuation levies. However, compulsion means that many employees perceive the present value of the future retirement income to be less than the levy. The levies as a form of tax on labour lead to lower overall remuneration for employees and lower employment     

Mentor Bouniatian on cycles and equilibrium

Although Mentor Bouniatian's theory of the business cycle is no longer referred to, it used to be often cited for its emphasis on time-lags (wherein he anticipated Aftalion) and for its early use of the acceleration principle. There are, moreover, additional elements of interest: he identified the conditions for a moving equilibrium, with some traits similar to the so-called ‘Harrod-Domar model’, he introduced the exogenous/endogenous distinction in business cycle theory, he was among the pioneers of the idea that growth cannot be dissociated from cycles and crises, and he discussed aspects of the ‘fallacy of composition’ problem.This paper examines these features of Bouniatian's theory of cycles and crises (as well as some frankly unsuccessful ones), both in terms of their relationships with contemporary developments in this area of research and in terms of their internal logic and methodology and their role in Bouniatian's analytical construction. As an upshot it is argued that although Bouniatian attempted to couch his theory in terms of the marginalist toolbox, his views on cycles ranges were more akin to the tradition of heretics, for he thought of crises not as a temporary deviations from equilibrium but perceived instead equilibrium as a temporary state of affairs in a world where overcapitalization is the norm rather than an exception.     

Neoliberalism with a Feminist Face: Crafting a new Hegemony at the World Bank

Neoliberalism has been discredited as a result of proliferating crises (financial, ecological, care) and mounting inequality. This paper examines the growing research on gender at the World Bank as a site for the construction of a new hegemonic consensus around neoliberalism. Drawing on a computer-assisted inductive analysis of thirty-four Bank publications on gender since 2001, the paper documents Bank efforts to establish a positive relationship between gender equality and growth; shows the expansion of the Bank’s definition of equality as equal opportunity; illustrates how the focus on institutions has enabled engagement with core feminist concerns, such as equality in the family; and traces how incorporating notions of women’s empowerment and agency has made possible a focus on domestic violence. The paper concludes by emphasizing the ambiguous effects of the Bank’s new neoliberalism, which continues to use the market as the arbiter of social values while providing openings for feminist agendas.