Technology investment and alternative regulatory regimes with demand uncertainty

A vertically integrated incumbent and an OLO (Other Licensed Operator) compete in the market for broadband access. The incumbent has the option to invest in building a Next Generation Network that covers all urban areas with similar demand structures. The investment return in terms of demand increase is uncertain. We compare the impact of different access regulation regimes – full regulation, partial regulation (only the copper network is regulated), risk sharing – on investment incentives and social welfare. We find that, when the alternative for the OLO is using the copper network rather than leaving the market entirely, exclusion of the OLO does not necessarily happen in equilibrium even when the incumbent is better in offering value-added services. Risk sharing emerges as the most preferable regime both from a consumer and a social welfare perspective for a large range of parameters.     

Interest rates,government purchases and the Taylor rule in recessions and expansions

In this paper we study asymmetries in the Taylor rule for the United States during the 1970–2012 period. We show that monetary authorities have been constantly concerned with excess demand in overheated periods – when the output gap is positive or the unemployment rate falls below 7% or 7.5% – raising the interest rate aggressively in that case. However, the Fed seems more reluctant to decrease the fund’s rate during recessions. On the contrary, monetary authorities react symmetrically and forcefully to inflation in booms and busts. Finally, we provide evidence that an expansionary fiscal policy does not lead to an increase in interest rates, and thus there is not necessary a “crowding-out” effect in recessions.     

被“交钥匙”外包与中国制造业的隐忧及启示——以广东消费类数码产品产业为例

对珠三角手机、影碟机与数码随声听等消费类数码产品产业发展历史的研究可以发现,以某一家或一些企业提供全面解决方案为产品开发技术基础的产业运作模式普遍存在。这种本土企业被“交钥匙”外包的中国式模块化生产网络是在全球化分工中,本地关系型生产网络嵌入到全球模块化生产网络中所出现的特定现象,预示着中国制造业需要以创新为导向的政策调整。     

汽车工业与全国工业发展的因果关系

介绍了格兰杰因果分析法的基本原理。基于1991～2007年汽车工业和全国工业总产值的数据,利用格兰杰因果分析法及Eviews软件,分析了全国工业发展对汽车工业的依赖程度;构建了全国工业产值增加与汽车工业产值之间的关系模型。计算结果表明：汽车工业产值与全国工业总产值的增长有一定的因果关系,在其它因素不变的情况下,GDP增长随汽车工业总产值增加呈近似线性增长的关系,汽车工业总产值每增加1%,将会带动全国工业总产值增加0.76%;而当汽车工业总产值增加10%时,将带动GDP增长7.62%。汽车及其关联产业不仅能够带动国民经济持续快速健康发展,还为社会创造了巨大的就业机会,为国家税收做出了较大贡献,促进经济结构的调整与升级,并且提高了整个社会生产、生活效率及文明程度。由此可见,汽车工业总产值的增加对国民经济增长的带动作用显著。中国汽车产业应走可持续发展道路,提高自主创新能力。     

LABELLING CHARACTERISTICS AND DEMAND FOR RETAIL GROCERY PRODUCTS IN AUSTRALIA*

This paper examines whether labelling characteristics affect short‐run demand for manufactured foods in Australia. We estimate the effect of common labelling characteristics on demand using data from 92 brands in 12 product categories from major supermarket stores across Australia over the period 2002 to 2005. We find that certain characteristics – such as whether the product is made from recycled materials, certified as being Australian‐made, is a private label product, is health‐conscious or supports a charity – have a positive effect on demand. However, being an environmentally‐friendly good had a negative impact on demand as did products which offer the chance to win a prize and uncertified Australian‐made goods.     

网络效应市场的技术创新障碍及策略分析

在网络效应市场,技术创新对企业竞争力有着重要的影响。然而由于网络效应的作用,需求曲线发生改变,使市场均衡表现出"赢者通吃"的特征。这意味着,如果一项新技术的用户规模达不到临界容量,正反馈效应的存在将会使该技术被市场所抛弃。静态博弈和动态博弈的分析结果都表明,用户为了避免网络规模减小带来的效用损失,对新技术的采用往往采取观望态度,这将导致新技术难以达到最小网络规模要求的临界容量,也就无法取代旧技术的统治地位。为了加快新技术的扩散速度并成功战胜旧技术,企业在进行技术创新时应采取有效的技术创新策略:一是要采取合适的技术兼容策略;二是要鼓励和授权其他厂商使用自己的技术标准;三是要吸引辅助配套厂商共同进行技术研发。     

Ex ante identification of disruptive innovations in the software industry applied to web applications: The case of Microsoft's vs. Google's office applications

This paper analyzes the question whether web applications pose a disruptive threat to incumbents or a disruptive growth opportunity for entrants in the application software industry using a novel method for ex ante identification of disruptive innovations in the software industry. Building on the theory of disruptive innovations, network effects and existing frameworks for the ex ante identification of disruptive innovations a new method of analysis is deduced. The analysis is based on a list of criteria that indicate a disruptive innovation and trajectory maps of the technologies' performance attributes. This method is applied to study the potential disruption of Microsoft's desktop office applications by Google's web-based office applications.The chosen method of analysis indicates a small likelihood for web applications to pose a disruptive threat to Microsoft, and by extension, to incumbents in the software industry. While web applications show a potential to satisfy market demand in established performance attributes, strong network effects in existing software products should give incumbents enough time to co-opt the innovation. The case illustrates how our new method to analyze disruptive potential in the software industry ex ante can help to apply the theory of disruptive innovation better for forecasting purposes and to provide novel strategic insights for the players involved.     

科学研究事业的产业关联效应研究——以江苏省数据为例

科学研究事业具有明显的劳动密集性和知识密集性特征,已经从基本硬件建设阶段发展到精密硬件与软件共同发展阶段,由中间产品型产业发展成为中间产品型基础产业。科学研究事业对制造业和服务业的依赖性都较强,制造业和服务业对科学研究事业的依赖性也较强。科学研究事业后向产业链在延长,后向完全联系效应有上升趋势;前向产业链也在延长,前向完全联系效应也有上升趋势。科学研究事业的基础产业地位在上升,而拉动型产业地位在下降。     

Productivity Growth and Input Demand: The Effect of Learning by Doing in a Gold Mining Firm in a Developing Economy

This paper analyzes the effect of learning by doing (LBD) on the firm’s productivity growth and its input demand decisions. The results indicate that LBD is an important determinant of the firm’s productivity growth. The contribution of LBD to the firm’s productivity growth is about 5.6%. Another observation is that LBD has a decreasing effect on the firm’s cost of production – a finding which is consistent with the results of many studies. Also, an increase in LBD measured by cumulative production increases the firm’s demand for capital, and decreases the firm’s demand for labor. Lastly, LBD has a significant effect on the firm’s elasticity of scale. A fundamental message derived from the study is the confirmation that the firms should invest in more large capital equipment, embark on new processing techniques, and create an environment that is conducive to on-the-job learning.     

Consumer welfare effects of increased food and energy prices

In this study, the authors evaluated how much price changes in food and energy – two basic living expenditures competing for consumers’ budgets – would affect consumer welfare. We first estimated a US complete demand system to quantify the interdependent demand relationships among 11 categories of consumption expenditures. Among the estimates, the own price elasticities of both food and energy are relatively inelastic, a finding that explains the dynamics of the recent soaring food and energy prices. The estimated demand elasticities were then incorporated into the measurement of Hicksian compensating variation to analyse the consumer welfare effects of price changes in food and energy. The results indicated that an increase in food and energy prices would increase compensated expenditures or incur a substantial consumer welfare loss, creating an especially heavy burden for low income households.     

Unemployment dynamics in emerging countries: Monetary policy and external shocks

This paper quantifies the impact of three key external shocks – external demand, interest rate, and uncertainty shocks – on emerging market economies (EMEs). We find that external shocks have a sizeable impact on macroeconomic fluctuations in EMEs and that a considerable fraction of this impact is through the domestic stock market. A decrease in external demand and an increase in external interest rate and uncertainty lead to a higher unemployment rate, lower stock market return, and a depreciation of the domestic currency. The EMEs' monetary policy actively responds to external shocks and dampens their impact on domestic activity.     

R&D internationalisation patterns in the global pharmaceutical industry: evidence from a network analytic perspective

This study adopts a Social Network Analysis (SNA) perspective to investigate global R&D internationalisation patterns of the pharmaceutical industry. We use co-inventorships identified in pharmaceutical patents granted by the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) between 1996 and 2013, giving rise to an international collaboration network by drawing a cross-country link when a patent lists at least two inventors located in different countries. We describe changing R&D internationalisation patterns by exploring network structures as a whole as well as the changing role of different countries. The results show that R&D internationalisation indeed has gained momentum in pharmaceutical innovation, in particular after the year 2006. The network has developed from a mono-centric, star-like network – with the USA constituting the only hub – to a more distributed and dense network. The relative decline of the USA has not taken place at the expense of emerging economies but at the expense of European countries.     

COMPETITION,REGULATION AND WELFARE IN THE PRESENCE OF NETWORK EXTERNALITIES*

In this paper we consider a simple model of an industry with network externalities, where a benefit to each consumer from network services depends on the size of the network. We first consider a single network and cover the cases with and without fixed cost of entry. We then turn to the two‐network industry, where the incumbent network and a new entrant network compete for the market and may differ both in their marginal costs and demand structures. In addition, we identify several situations where public policy may play a crucial role in sustaining socially advantageous network service provision.     

Pre-entry experience,technological complementarities,and the survival of de-novo entrants. Evidence from the US telecommunications industry

We investigate the effect of pre-entry experience on firms’ performance in terms of survival. In particular we focus on entrants from a related upstream industry – semiconductors – into a downstream industry – telecommunications. We examine a sample of 336 de-novo start-ups in the US telecommunication industry and we estimate a discrete time hazard model of firm exit. Our findings show that, after controlling for both firms and founders’ characteristics, firms whose founders had prior experience in a related upstream industry such as semiconductors enjoy a relatively lower hazard of exit with respect to intra-industry spinoffs and other types of start-ups. Additionally, background heterogeneity of the founding team is an important determinant of survival for the firms in our sample. Our results point to the role of interdependences and technological complementarities between two vertically related industries in affecting the performance of new entrants.     

Modelling movie attendance with seasonality: evidence from China

High-frequency data improves the timeliness of movie attendance forecasts, but also results in the issue of seasonality. The main objective of this article is to build and test a novel movie attendance model that considers seasonality. Based on the Bass model, we combine an intertemporal demand shift pattern and the binary elements of seasonality – weekends and holidays – and propose a model called DISBM. We chose a sample of 58 movies released in China in 2013 to evaluate our proposal. The empirical results suggest that DISBM has better performance than other seasonal models. We demonstrate that the intertemporal demand shift results in weekend fluctuations, while the extra demand causes the seasonal holiday effect. The intent of this study is to better understand various movie attendance diffusions given different seasonal effects, in order to develop corresponding marketing strategies.     

DYNAMIC ENTRY WITH DEMAND AND SUPPLY SIDE SPILLOVERS

Supply side spillovers have been used to explain firms' entry behavior in the pharmaceutical industry. In contrast, demand side spillovers have received less attention. This paper identifies supply and demand spillovers using a dynamic model of strategic interaction. The results indicate that demand side spillovers are more significant than the supply side spillovers to generic drug firms, and the demand side spillovers increase a firm's market share by 3%–4% on average in subsequent market entry. In addition, with supply side spillovers alone, lowering entry barriers can increase future entry rates, while in the case of demand side spillovers, lowering entry barriers will have the opposite effect. (JEL L110, L130, D220)     

Dialect,transaction cost and intra-national trade: evidence from China

Growing evidence emphasizes the important role of network effects on bilateral trade. This paper proposes a new factor – dialect difference, which decreases social network across regions, may increase transaction costs and thus shape interregional trade pattern. Taking China as an example, we use a gravity model considering network effects and provincial data from 1997 to 2009 to examine the effect of dialect difference on intra-national trade. We find that dialect difference has a significantly negative effect on interprovincial trade. Moreover, this paper explores the time dimension of the effect of dialect difference. We find that the negative effects of dialect difference on trade have been diminishing over time. Migration and the promotion of Mandarin have increased interregional cultural connections and thus mitigated the negative effects of dialect difference.     

Accounting for the recent surge in U.S. patenting: changes in R&D expenditures,patent yields,and the high tech sector

We decompose the recent patent increase into components representing (1) an increase in resources made available to research and development, (2) an across-the-board rise in the patent yield of an R&D dollar, and (3) changes in the patent yield in individual industries. Two high tech fields, computer hardware and pharmaceuticals, account for 22 percent of the patent increase. While these two industries had the fastest R&D growth among the industries we study, the pharmaceutical industry experienced a decline in its patent yield, limiting its patent growth. We show that increased R&D spending accounts for 70 percent of the patent increase. We discuss our results in the context of alternative hypotheses of the patent surge. We also compare our results to the anecdotal evidence of firm R&D performance at the industry level.