Commercialization,renewal, and quality of patents

One of the major reasons why inventors are awarded patents by governments is they encourage R&D investments and commercialization of inventions. If the patent holder commercializes his/her invention, he/she has stronger incentives to retain the patent. The purpose here is to empirically analyze the relationship between commercialization and the renewal of patents. At the same time, I take into account defensive patent strategies (e.g. deterring competitors from utilizing the patent) and pointedly ask if there are any third factors (quality of the patent) that affect the commercialization and renewal decisions. Using a detailed database of Swedish patents, I utilize a survival model to estimate how commercialization influences the patent renewal decision. Basic results show not only that commercialization and defensive strategies increase the probability a patent will be renewed, but also that quality influences commercialization and renewal decisions. When controlling for the endogenous commercialization decision, there is still a strong positive relationship between commercialization and renewal of patents. Thus, given the quality of the patent, if the owner decides to commercialize the patent on the margin, this leads to longer survival of the patent. With regard to commercialization modes, there is some evidence that licensed patents and patents commercialized in original and new firms – but not acquired patents – survive longer than non-commercialized patents. Looking more closely at the contracts of acquired and licensed patents, contracts with both variable and fixed fees – but not contracts with either variable or fixed fees – survive longer than non-commercialized patents. However, the analysis about modes and contract terms does not take into account the endogeneity problem.     

China's agricultural patents: How has their value changed amid recent patent boom?

Patent applications have surged in China over the past two decades. Has the application boom been accompanied by a simultaneous drop in the value (quality) of the patents? Our research examines this question by analyzing invention patents in agriculture. Using data from China's State Intellectual Property Office (SIPO) for patents between 1985 and 2005 that had been granted before January 2011, we conduct duration analysis of patent life span and the length of patent renewal with the Weibull and Cox Proportional Hazard modeling respectively. The results show that the value of Chinese agricultural patents, measured by their life span and renewal length, has been improving, although foreign grants are still maintained significantly longer than domestic ones. For domestic grants, private entities, especially companies, are more likely to have a longer patent protection period than public entities. Furthermore, patent value varies significantly across different technological fields, with grants to inventions in complex and emerging technologies such as agricultural biotechnology and agricultural chemicals demonstrating higher value than others. The findings have implications for understanding the impacts of China's innovation policy on global patenting activities as well as China's innovation trajectory in agriculture and other sectors.     

Publicly-funded R&D programs and survival of patents

I apply a survival model to a detailed data set of Swedish patents to estimate how different financing factors affect the likelihood of patent renewal. Since the owners know more about the patents than potential external financiers, there is a problem of asymmetric information. To overcome this, Sweden has for a long time relied on government support rather than Private Venture Capital (PVC). In the empirical analysis, two kinds of government loans are unbundled. The empirical results show that patents which have received soft government loans in the R&D-phase have a higher probability of expiring than patents without such financing. But patents that have received more market-oriented government loans during the commercialization phase are renewed for as long as other commercialized patents. This finding suggests that rather than bad choices of projects, it is the nature of the contract terms that explains the low renewal of some patents with government financing.     

Combinations of technology in US patents, 1926–2009: a weakening base for future innovation?

In combinatorial models of innovations, new technologies are built from combinations of pre-existing technological components. Researchers learn which components work well together by observing previously successful combinations and the pool of ideas can be ‘fished out’, i.e. exhausted, if it is not ‘restocked’ by the discovery of novel connections. We first show US patents have made increasingly less novel connections among technological constituents since the 1950s, and that the number of technological fields to which these connections are applicable has stopped growing since the 1980s. We then estimate the parameters of an ideas production function, and find parameter estimates consistent with technology fields being fished out if not continually restocked by the discovery of novel connections between technological components. We use the ideas production function to estimate the number of new patent applications induced by each patent granted between 1926 and 2001, and show this number has trended downward since the 1940s.     

Using patents to mislead rivals

Abstract.  Firms claim they do not rely heavily on patents. Yet they patent, as indicated by the large number of patents that are granted. This paper offers a possible resolution to this puzzle. It takes a simplified version of a duopoly innovation race and studies the patenting decision of an innovator who has private information about the improvability of her innovation. It is shown that a firm may use the patenting decision to mislead her rival. Under symmetric information, research can be stimulated but not disclosed. However, under asymmetric information, disclosure is more likely, even though research incentive may be weakened. JEL Classification: 031, L1     

COLLECTIVE KNOWLEDGE,PROLIFIC INVENTORS AND THE VALUE OF INVENTIONS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF FRENCH,GERMAN AND BRITISH PATENTS IN THE US, 1975–1999

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to test two related hypotheses: The first is that the involvement of both prolific and foreign inventors in the production of knowledge has a direct, positive impact on the collective dimension of this knowledge production as measured by the size of the inventive team. The second is that the involvement of both prolific and foreign inventors has a direct, positive impact on the value of the new knowledge produced. We use detailed information from nearly 300,000 patents granted by the US Patent Office to French, German, and British inventors over the period from 1975 to 1999. From the data available from each patent regarding citations of prior patents and the numbers and identities of the inventors listed in the patent application, we are able to construct measures of collective knowledge, the presence of prolific and foreign inventors, and the imputed value of patents. In a novel approach in this literature, we estimate negative binomial multiple regression models for determining both the size of the collective dimension and the value of the patents. After controlling for the effects of years, technological fields, and patenting country, we find a strong support for the hypothesis that both prolific and foreign inventors tend to be parts of larger teams of inventors and for the hypothesis that prolific and foreign inventors tend to produce inventions having more value. In the conclusion, we draw some implications from these results for knowledge governance.     

Lovely but dangerous: The impact of patent citations on patent renewal

What is the impact of patent citations on patent renewal behaviour? Patent citations are commonly used as an indicator of technology spillovers. For cited patents, therefore, patent citations have a potentially ambiguous impact. On the one hand, patent citations may indicate a scientific breakthrough, a high value of the cited patent and therefore a long survival period. On the other hand, patent citations may indicate competing innovations that render the cited patent obsolete. By discriminating patents by technology field, it is demonstrated that patents that receive citations across technology fields survive longer than other patents. Patents that receive citations within the same technology field lapse earlier.     

The Effect of Technological Impact upon Patent Renewal Decisions

This paper analyzes the relationship between the technological impact of US patents, as measured using patent citation analysis, and the renewal decisions made by their owners. A significant positive relationship was discovered between these variables across a number of time periods. For example, 60% of patents uncited in the first eight years after publication were renewed at that point, compared with over 90% of patents cited more than 50 times in the first eight years. The relationship between citations and renewals remained highly significant even after controlling for differences between internal and external citations, and differences in technologies and patent ownership. Further analysis was undertaken into the relative influence of technological impact and maintenance costs upon renewal decisions. This analysis revealed that after patent maintenance fees were doubled for patents applied for after August 1982, a larger proportion of patents was maintained at each renewal point despite the increase. These patents also had a greater technological impact than patents applied for prior to the increase in maintenance fees, reflected by the larger number of citations they received. It may thus be inferred that the technological impact of patents had a greater influence upon renewal decisions than economic concerns regarding the costs of their renewal.     

The Effect of Technological Impact upon Patent Renewal Decisions

This paper analyzes the relationship between the technological impact of US patents, as measured using patent citation analysis, and the renewal decisions made by their owners. A significant positive relationship was discovered between these variables across a number of time periods. For example, 60% of patents uncited in the first eight years after publication were renewed at that point, compared with over 90% of patents cited more than 50 times in the first eight years. The relationship between citations and renewals remained highly significant even after controlling for differences between internal and external citations, and differences in technologies and patent ownership. Further analysis was undertaken into the relative influence of technological impact and maintenance costs upon renewal decisions. This analysis revealed that after patent maintenance fees were doubled for patents applied for after August 1982, a larger proportion of patents was maintained at each renewal point despite the increase. These patents also had a greater technological impact than patents applied for prior to the increase in maintenance fees, reflected by the larger number of citations they received. It may thus be inferred that the technological impact of patents had a greater influence upon renewal decisions than economic concerns regarding the costs of their renewal.     

Private value of European patents

I examine the joint patent designation-renewal behavior of the European Patent Office (EPO) patent applicants during 1978-1996, using both nonparametric techniques and a parametric model. The European patents granted through the EPO are substantially more valuable than those through the national route. Value distribution of patents is highly skewed, and even more so for the EPO patent families. The value of patent rights increases with the economic size of the country and exhibits modestly increasing returns to scale. Model estimation also reveals significant institutional differences across EPO member countries in patent protection.     

On the measurement of patent stock as knowledge indicators

Most of the conventional indicators for measuring the amount of technological knowledge (TK) have so far been input-based indicators. Hence, there is growing need to develop output-based indicators, and accordingly some studies have been conducted thereon. However, previous research has adopted patent count or patent stock by simple count in measuring the amount of TK as output-based indicators. The principal problem with using this variable is that the value of individual patent is too heterogeneous. That is a large portion of these patent databases are either of little value or nothing at all. As a result, patent count or patent stock by simple count cannot be seen as a suitable measure of TK.In this study, we attempted to resolve the value-heterogeneity problem in measuring patent stock. The notion of citation-based patent stock (CPS) and valuation-based patent stock (VPS) is proposed in this paper and the calculation method is described in detail. In CPS, the economic value of individual patent is assumed to be proportional to the number of citations received from other patents. And in VPS, the economic value of individual patent is derived from the value distribution of patents registered in some cohort by manipulating the patent renewal data. We validated the indicators by comparing them with the usual input-based indicators and by analyzing the relationships between them and the productivity growth empirically.     

Types of patents and driving forces behind the patent growth in China

As a developing economy, China's unprecedented patenting surge is puzzling. We study China's patent surge and its driving forces using a novel and comprehensive merged dataset on patent applications filed by Chinese firms. We find that R&D investment, FDI, and patent subsidy have different effects on different types of patents. First, R&D investment has a positive and significant impact on patenting activities for all types of patents under different model specifications. Second, the stimulating effect of foreign direct investment on patent applications is only robust for utility model patents and design patents. Third, the patent subsidy only has a positive impact on design patents. The results imply that FDI and patent subsidy may disproportionately spur low-quality patents.     

Knowledge technological proximity: evidence from US and European patents

The purpose of this paper is to explore the correlation between the technological proximity measures in three areas: USA, Japan and the Europe. In each economic area, we use information from two international patent systems to construct the technological proximity for 240 large international firms. In particular, we select firms’ patents from United States Patent and Trademarks Office data and European Patent Office data. In order to compute the technological proximity, we follow the methodology developed by Jaffe [1986. “Technological Opportunity and Spillovers of R&D: Evidence from Firms’ Patents, Profits and Market Value.” American Economic Review 76 (5): 984–1001], where a technological vector is based on the distribution of patents of each firm across technology classes. Since the Jaffe distance assumes that spillovers only occur within the same technology class, but rules out spillovers between different classes, we develop also a distance measure which exploits the Mahalanobis norm to identify the distance between different technology classes based on the frequency that patents are taken out in different classes by the same firm. The contribution to the existing literature is to investigate the robustness of the technological proximity measure and the extent to which it may be affected by patent system features.     

R&D, patents and stock return volatility

Recent finance literature highlights the role of technological change in increasing firm specific (idiosyncratic) and aggregate stock return volatility, yet innovation data is not used in these analyses, leaving the direct relationship between innovation and stock return volatility untested. The paper investigates the relationship between volatility and innovation using firm level patent data. The analysis builds on the empirical work by Mazzucato (Rev Econ Dyn 5:318–345, 2002; J Evol Econ 13(5):491–512, 2003) where it is found that stock return volatility is highest during periods in the industry life-cycle when innovation is the most ‘radical’. In this paper we ask whether firms which invest more in innovation (more R&D and more patents) and/or which have more important innovations (patents with more citations) experience more volatility in their returns. Given that returns should in theory be higher, on average, for higher risk stocks, we also look at the effect of innovation on the level of returns. To take into account the competition between firms within industries, firm returns and volatility are measured relative to the industry average. We focus the analysis on firms in the pharmaceutical industry between 1974 and 1999. Results suggest that there is a positive and significant relationship between volatility, R&D intensity and the various patent related measures—especially when the innovation measures are filtered to distinguish the very innovative firms from the less innovate ones.     

Market value,R&D,and patents

A significant relationship is found between the market value of the firm and its ‘intangible’ capital, proxied by past R&D expenditures and the number of patents, based on a time-series cross-section analysis of data for large U.S. firms.     

Patent Protection in the Shadow of Infringement: Simulation Estimations of Patent Value

Empirical estimates of the private value of patent protection are derived for four technology areas_computers, textiles, combustion engines, and pharmaceuticals_using new patent data for West Germany, 1953–1988. Patentees must pay renewal fees to keep their patents in force as well as legal expenses in order to enforce them. A dynamic stochastic discrete choice model of optimal renewal decisions is developed incorporating both learning and depreciation as well as the potential need to prosecute infringement. The evolution of the distribution of returns over the life of a group of patents is calculated for each technology using a minimum distance simulation estimator. Results indicate that the aggregate value of protection generated per year is on the order of 10% of related R&D expenditure.     

Can patent family size and composition signal patent value?

Recent research has proposed a method of patent valuation based on weighting patent family size by the market size of the countries in the family. The premise is that inventors tend to seek greater international coverage for their more valuable patents. The paper presents a novel way to test the ability of market size-weighted patent families to predict patent value and compares the method against extant measures of patent valuation based on patent citations and renewal behaviour. We use forecasting techniques to show that the weighted patent family size measure outperforms other methods in terms of predicting patent life and the number of citations. An advantage of the weighted patent family size measure is that it is based on ex-ante information and is easy to construct for purposes of evaluating patent value. We demonstrate this advantage using a large, comprehensive database of international patent families.     

Mixed Competition and Patent Licensing

This paper studies the patent licensing decision of an insider patentee when two firms engage in a mixed (Cournot–Bertrand or Bertrand–Cournot) competition where one firm adopts the quantity strategy while the other uses the price strategy and vice versa. If either the fixed fee or royalty is applied, then the licensor prefers the fixed fee when the licensor takes the quantity strategy, while the licensee uses the price strategy (Cournot–Bertrand). If the two‐part tariff is applied, then the two‐part tariff is more likely to be adopted by the licensor under Cournot–Bertrand than under Bertrand–Cournot competition.     

The impact of public R&D investments on patenting activity: technology transfer at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

ABSTRACT

This paper presents estimates of the impact of public R&D on patenting activity at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Using a time series of public sector agency data, we estimate the per-capita R&D elasticity of new patent applications using a knowledge production function framework model that is an expanded version of what other scholars have used with private sector data. New patent applications are an important step in the technology transfer activities of a federal agency. We estimate this elasticity to be about 2.0. This elasticity value represents an initial estimate of the impact of EPA’s R&D investments on its technology transfer activity.     

Licensing to a durable-good duopoly in patent litigation

Incorporating patent litigation into a durable-good duopoly model, we revisit the optimal licensing contract on a cost-reducing innovation. We find that both the optimal licensing contract and the innovator's licensing revenue are closely related to the patent's strength, i.e., the probability it would be found valid if tested in court. It is shown that, for a relatively weak patent (patent's strength is low), it's optimal for the innovator to charge the royalty rate as high as possible coupled with a negative fixed fee. But for a relatively strong patent (patent's strength is high), contract involving the combination of a medium level royalty rate and a positive fixed fee is optimal. We also discuss how the patent's strength affects the social welfare of a patent. Finally we present two policy suggestions that may alleviate the social welfare loss raised by the licensing of weak patents.