突破性技术创新:理论综述与研究展望

首先通过溯源和梳理关于突破性技术创新的现有研究文献,从技术能力和商业模式的维度划分创新类型,辨析了不同类型创新的共性与差异,并基于技术变革与商业变革重塑突破性技术创新的概念内涵。然后基于"过程"视角对突破性技术创新的形成机理与演化路径进行梳理和凝练,剖析了突破性技术创新从技术概念设想或创意构想乃至市场实现的价值脉络,明晰了突破性技术创新的高度不确定性、非连续性和非线性的本质。最后分析研究结果,并对未来研究进行展望。     

突破性技术创新的非线性与非连续性演化——以智能驾驶汽车为例

通过对突破性技术创新进行理论溯源,提炼了突破性技术创新的技术轨迹和价值实现路径。采取案例研究方法,以谷歌与丰田为案例对象,以智能驾驶汽车作为突破性技术创新的例子,从技术维度与市场维度剖析了智能驾驶技术的发展历程。研究发现:突破性技术创新起步于新技术和新市场,能为客户创造新的市场需求、科学问题解决方案;突破性技术创新具有非线性、非连续性的发展特征,突破性技术创新并不是某一特定节点的技术或产品,而是时间维度上技术或产品功能不断完善及演进的结果;企业在进行突破性技术创新时,会根据自身的资源基础、产业链中的竞争地位以及市场反馈建立与在位企业迥异的发展模式。     

智力资本对企业突破性技术创新绩效的影响研究

从知识视角出发,通过文献研究提出相关理论假设,运用结构方程模型研究了智力资本对企业突破性技术创新绩效产生的影响。研究表明：智力资本的3个关键因素对企业实现突破性技术创新绩效具有显著影响,而智力资本的不同维度对突破性创新具有不同的驱动作用。人力资本、社会资本和关系资本3个因素对突破性技术创新绩效有积极的影响作用,其中关系资本对突破性创新影响最大。研究结论可为企业有效实施智力资本积累,进而实现突破性技术创新战略提供决策和借鉴。     

技术管理能力对突破性技术创新行为的影响：环境动荡性与竞争敌对性的联合调节效应

利用突破性技术创新实现“弯道超车，后发制人”是我国经济高质量发展的必由之路。突破性技术创新的成功离不开创新行为的实施，如何促进突破性技术创新行为成为理论和实践上亟待解决的问题。探索技术管理能力对突破性技术创新行为的影响，分析环境动荡性对技术管理能力与突破性技术创新行为间关系的调节作用，以及竞争敌对性对环境动荡性调节作用的调节效应。研究表明，技术管理能力对突破性技术创新行为具有显著正向影响，环境动荡性在技术管理能力与突破性技术创新行为的关系中起正向调节作用；竞争敌对性能够强化环境动荡性的正向调节作用。     

基于逆向研发外包的装备制造企业突破性技术创新影响因素研究

本文采用多案例扎根理论的方法归纳了研发合作、设立海外研发中心和海外并购三种逆向研发外包方式下,装备制造业实现突破性技术创新的影响因素,构建了装备制造业突破性技术创新作用机理模型;在此基础上,通过对27家典型案例企业数据的模糊集定性比较分析,得到了不同逆向研发外包方式下,企业实现突破性技术创新的多重因果路径。研究发现通过研发合作方式进行逆向研发外包无法在短期内帮助企业实现突破性技术创新,而通过设立海外研发中心和海外并购方式开展逆向研发外包的企业则有4条路径可以实现突破性技术创新。其中,设立海外研发中心开展逆向研发外包,利用式学习是突破性技术创新发生的核心条件;而通过海外并购开展逆向研发外包,探索式学习则是突破性技术创新产生的核心条件。通过进一步分析,发现存在3个前因要素组态使得基于海外并购的逆向研发外包未能取得企业所预期的突破性技术创新。     

基于产品属性的新创企业技术创新模式选择

从产品性能出发,将产品属性分为功能型属性和创新型属性,根据新创企业对产品属性的改进程度区分不同的技术创新模式。分析了新创企业面对在位企业的竞争时进行渐进性技术创新、突破性技术创新和颠覆性技术创新的市场价格均衡以及各种均衡下的最优利润。探讨了消费者对产品创新型属性的偏好、不同技术创新模式的成本以及技术创新程度等因素对新创企业技术创新模式选择的影响。研究表明:资金实力强的新创企业应从渐进性技术创新与突破性技术创新中选择其一;资金实力弱的新创企业应从渐进性技术创新与颠覆性技术创新中选择其一。     

新兴技术与新兴产业协同演化规律探析

结合技术创新经济学和协同演化理论的分析范式,从知识、需求、技术链价值分布和技术轨道等视角,深入探析了新兴技术与新兴产业的协同演化规律。研究表明,新兴技术与新兴产业的演化动力通过知识学习和扩散、需求空间及结构变化、技术链上各环节价值再分布、技术轨道与技术标准转化等相互促进和制约,进而影响两者的协同演化进程;二者协同演化的主要阶段包括初步协同、强化协同、深度协同和分化协同,新兴技术与新兴产业演化动力的交织程度在各阶段具有不同特点。     

政府“双补”政策下绿色生产与绿色消费演化博弈分析

为探究政府“双补”政策下生产者和消费者的博弈关系，文章结合影响消费者和生产者选择的因素，基于复制动态方程，构建生产行为和消费行为演化博弈模型，仿真分析系统演化的稳定路径。以空调市场为例，分析了初始概率、政府不同种类补贴、价格、认知价值、感知损失价值等参数在赋值不同情况下对系统演化策略影响。仿真结果证明，企业绿色生产和消费者消费初始概率越大，则系统演化策略更容易成为绿色生产、绿色消费。政府购买补贴与生产补贴同时作用会比单一补贴行为促使系统稳态更快实现，不同种类产品的价格参数的变化会对系统演化策略产生不一样影响，消费者主观因素即认知价值和感知损失也会在不同程度影响最终演化博弈策略。     

新一轮产业革命背景下突破性技术创新与中国产业转型升级

突破性技术创新是推动产业转型升级的重要驱动力,具有显著的技术颠覆性、非连续性和产业关联带动作用等特征。新一轮产业革命背景下,突破性技术创新不断涌现,为后发经济体实现产业赶超提供了机会窗口。通过对突破性技术创新内涵及特征进行理论溯源,提炼出突破性技术创新对产业转型升级的作用机理和路径;以人工智能技术应用为例,分析了突破性技术创新对我国三次产业升级的影响;提出了加快突破性技术创新发展、促进我国产业转型升级的对策思路,即强化基础性创新研究,加大对行业共性突破性技术创新的支持,发挥新一代信息技术、产业融合以及金融的作用。     

突破性技术创新研究:现状与展望——基于SSCI和CSSCI期刊的文献计量分析

突破性技术创新是中国落实创新驱动、绿色发展、提升关键核心技术创新能力等多个国家战略的重要路径。本文采用文献计量方法和知识图谱工具,以2001—2018年发表于SSCI和CSSCI期刊的765篇文献为研究样本,从多个视角系统揭示国内外突破性技术创新研究的现状,并对未来研究方向进行展望。主要研究结论是:近18年国内外突破性技术创新研究发文量总体呈逐年上升趋势,国内研究与国外相比起步较晚且持续热度较低、对外合作研究较少且国际影响力不足;突破性技术创新研究遵循的理论基础主要是社会网络理论、动态资源管理理论和组织学习理论;突破性技术创新研究的热点主要集中于技术、组织、资源和财务四个方面,与市场发展问题相关的研究是薄弱环节。进一步从创新主体、创新变轨、研究层次和研究主题四个方面归纳了突破性技术创新研究热点的演化规律和存在问题。突破性技术创新的市场风险、跨国合作战略、大数据赋能和绿色导向会成为未来突破性技术创新研究的主攻方向。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.     

A Humean theory of choice of which rationality may be one consequence

For the reader who considers economic theory of choice as a special case of a more general theory of action, Hume's discussion of the determinants of action in the Treatise of Human Nature (1739?–?40), in the Enquiry on Human Understanding (1748) and in the Dissertation on Passions (1757) deserves attention. However, according to some modern commentators, Hume does not seem to have given any evidence that would favour what nowadays we would consider as the kind of rationality involved in modern theories of rational choice. On the contrary, this paper arrives at the conclusion that consistency between preferences and choice, like the usual properties of completeness and transitivity, may be considered as outcomes of a mental process, described by means of a decision algorithm that aims to represent Hume's theory of choice.     

The concept of freedom and its relation to economic development--a critical appreciation of the work of Amartya Sen

Following a brief review of the conception of freedom as employedin economic discourse, this paper focuses on the evolution ofthe concept of freedom in the work of Amartya Sen. It tracesthe development of Sen's thought from the capability analysisof the late 1970s to his more recent separation of freedom intoits opportunity and process aspects. While broadly appreciativeof Sen's development of the concept of positive freedom, thepaper identifies some difficulties arising from his definitionof capability as a set of options as well as from his separationof the opportunity and process aspects of freedom. Aspects ofthe relationship between Sen's conception of freedom and thatof Marx are discussed briefly in the context of Sen's recentdiscussion of the market as a source of freedom.     

How chaebol restructuring after the 1997 crisis has affected corporate decision and performance in Korea: debt financing,ownership structure,and investment

ABSTRACT

Korean chaebol firms, characterized by excessive debt financing and overinvestment, experienced restructuring after the 1997 crisis. By reducing debt financing and thus overinvestment, they tried to reorganize financing structure and ownership structure. Chaebols’ debt reduction turns out to have improved performance. However, polarization between chaebol and non-chaebol firms has become more significant. Even after the crisis, firms that give higher cash flows to a controlling shareholder take more capital investment, indicating that agency problems still exist within chaebols. Chaebol-affiliated firms continue to be more active in R&D than non-chaebol firms. However, the pattern is limited to the group of top 10 chaebols after the crisis.

Abbreviations: KFTC: Korea Fair Trade Commission     

Types of technology

Technology is a concept rife with confusion. Here, I argue that technologies can be distinguished as a combination of type of producer and an idealized artefact life history. Using this definition, a number of technologies are identified. The first technology historically, in the Protostomes, was the production of individual or family dwellings. Next came objects such as spider webs for trapping prey. Stigmergy followed, with the social insects, as a collective endeavour to construct a mega-structure using simple rules of accretion. Some birds and primates began to make tools, or simple technological objects whose function is closely related to their form. Humans are distinguished by their ability to make machines. Traditional technology took place once people voluntarily organised into groups with specialised knowledge to produce more complex objects and structures. Monumental objects like ceremonial pyramids came with the command economies of the early agrarian societies, which also resulted in a new category of artefact, the network. Finally, with modern civilizations came ad hoc accretion, or population-level adding-on, to make truly complex technological systems. Developing a theoretical framework within which artefacts, production processes and ways of interacting with them are identified should help the study of technology to become more scientific.