包含股票的金融资产组合中家户投资型寿险需求研究

在连续时间动态模型框架下,本文探究收益率随机波动的投资型寿险需求在包含股票的金融投资组合中的变化规律。模型假设投资型寿险保费分为寿险纯保费和投资性保费两部分,其中寿险纯保费关注基本死亡保障,而投资性保费关注财富增值。在一个包含无风险资产储蓄和风险资产股票的金融资产组合中,探究投资型寿险需求随时间变化的规律。股票与投资性保费均假定遵循一维几何布朗运动,两者相关但存在竞争关系。使用比较动态方法以及数值模拟方法,研究发现:初始财富、投资型寿险收益率对投资型寿险总需求有正向影响,而市场利率、风险厌恶系数等因子产生反向影响,死亡率影响效应不确定;投资型寿险与股票的相关性对投资型寿险需求产生显著影响。     

互联网、数字普惠金融与农村居民相对贫困

近年来，随着农村互联网加速普及，越来越多的农村居民开始利用数字普惠金融服务来缓解家庭信贷约束，这对农村居民的相对贫困产生了重要影响。本文利用2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据，将互联网、数字普惠金融和农村居民相对贫困纳入同一框架下进行研究。分析结果发现：首先，互联网发展有助于推动农村数字普惠金融的普及，数字普惠金融可以有效缓解农村居民相对贫困；其次，互联网可以通过数字普惠金融缓解农村居民相对贫困，且研究结论具有稳健性；最后，互联网的减贫效应存在地区和年龄差异性，互联网对西部地区和青年人的相对贫困缓解效应更强。基于上述研究结论，本文从加快数字乡村网络基础设施建设、加强数字普惠金融知识宣传和改善相对贫困群体生产生活条件等方面提出缓解农村居民相对贫困的对策建议。     

信息不对称、会计稳健性与集团信贷模式

本文考察上市公司与外部资本市场之间的信息不对称对集团母子公司之间债务分布决策的影响,以及会计稳健性在债务主体选择决策中发挥的信息调节效应,研究发现:当信息不对称程度较低时,子公司会更多地选择自主承担债务融资,但随着信息不对称程度的提高,债务融资则更多集中于母公司,表明信息不对称降低了子公司自主承担债务融资的能力,上述倾向在子公司业务比重大的企业集团中表现得更为明显。进一步地,条件稳健性显著缓解了信息不对称对子公司自主承担债务融资的约束,而非条件稳健性却加剧了上述约束。研究揭示了信息不对称除影响公司信贷总体水平外,还是影响集团母子公司之间债务融资主体选择的重要因素,并且两类会计稳健性在集团信贷主体决策中存在信息效应异质性,因此深化了会计稳健性与信贷决策关系的研究。     

资本充足率监管对银行稳健性的非线性影响——基于面板门槛模型的分析

本文采用我国2005~2013年64家商业银行的微观数据,运用Hansen发展的面板门槛模型,研究了不同资本充足水平下,资本充足率监管对银行稳健性的影响。研究结果表明,我国商业银行存在资本充足率监管与银行稳健性的单一门槛效应,二者是非线性关系。上市银行样本中,不论资本充足率位于高水平还是低水平,资本充足率监管与银行稳健性均呈现负相关;在非上市银行样本中,资本充足率监管与银行稳健性的关系不仅存在门槛特征,而且在高、低两种资本充足状态下,资本充足率监管对银行稳健性影响的方向不同。因此,相关政策要综合考虑我国商业银行上市与否及其已有的资本充足率水平。     

管理者过度自信对公司业绩:好事还是坏事?——基于会计稳健性视角的经验证据

文章研究了管理者过度自信对会计稳健性的影响,并分析了会计稳健性在管理者过度自信与公司业绩之间的调节效应,以及此调节效应在盈利或亏损企业间的差异。结果表明:公司管理者的过度自信对会计稳健性有显著的负面影响;会计稳健性在管理者过度自信与公司业绩之间发挥了一定的调节作用;在亏损企业该调节作用提高了公司业绩,而在盈利企业则恶化了公司业绩。     

非条件稳健性、条件稳健性与企业投资效率

本文将会计稳健性分为非条件稳健性和条件稳健性,深入阐述这两种稳健性对企业投资效率的作用机理,并以此作为实证研究假设,实证检验这种作用机理,研究发现:条件稳健性是通过融资约束和代理问题这两种渠道作用于企业投资效率的;条件稳健性确实能够提高企业投资效率,而非条件稳健性却降低了企业投资效率;公司面临的融资约束程度越严重,条件稳健性对企业投资效率的提高作用越明显;公司代理问题越严重,条件稳健性对企业投资效率的提高作用也越明显。     

驱动中国电力消费变迁的影响因素探究

本文基于中国2008-2018年各省市的面板数据,采用固定效应和随机效应的实证分析方法对影响电力消费的诸多因素进行检验和研究,结果表明,经济发展水平、人口数量和科技发展提升1％,对电力消费增加的促进效应分别为0.536％、0.871％、0.050％,均表现为正向效应,并且都通过了显著性检验;价格水平对电力消费的影响表现为不显著的抑制作用,未能通过检验.在加入Robust和被解释变量滞后项之后,得到的稳健性结果和检验之前的结果几乎一致,可以认为本文的研究结论具有稳健性.进一步的,分样本考察东、中、西三大区域的用电需求与相关影响因素的异质性.最后针对实证结论提出了相关政策建议.     

证券分析师、内幕消息与资本市场效率-基于中国A股股价中公司特质信息含量的经验证据

本文拓展了RodriguezandSbuelz(2006)模型,引入稳健性偏好来研究中国股市的惯性投资策略和对冲投资策略.稳健性投资者对惯性投资策略反应不足,部分执行反转投资策略,从而印证了实证研究所发现的中国股市在中短期内惯性效应夹杂着反转效应的情况;稳健性投资者对对冲投资策略反应过度,并且随着投资周期的变长,其与一般投资者的对冲投资策略差异拉大;风险规避系数大和存在稳健性偏好的投资者能够把投资策略控制在合理的区间内.     

经济增长对保险需求的引致效应--基于面板数据的分析

经济增长是影响保险需求的主要因素。根据预期效用理论,首先假设低收入和高收入群体边际保险消费倾向相对较低,中等收入群体边际保险消费倾向相对较高,即经济增长与边际保险消费倾向存在“倒U型”关系,且经济增长对寿险的引致效应要高于非寿险。然后采用面板数据模型,对1991~2003年全球78个国家和地区寿险和非寿险的边际消费倾向进行统计分析,研究发现两个假设基本成立。在此基础上,就当前我国保险业保费增长率减缓以及保费负增长的现象作了应用分析,并对此提出了具体政策建议。     

会计稳健性、自由现金流与代理成本——2009-2013年中国上市公司样本的实证分析

契约摩擦导致了代理成本的产生,自由现金流是代理成本的重要表现形式之一。如果企业持有大量的自由现金流会造成严重的经济后果。而会计信息在契约的签订、执行和监督过程中发挥着举足轻重的作用;高质量的会计信息有利于降低契约摩擦,减少代理成本。本文从稳健性的视角出发,研究了会计信息质量对自由现金流的影响。在对自由现金流概念分解的基础上,分析了会计稳健性对自由现金流的作用路径,并以2009—2013年主板上市公司的平衡短面板数据为研究样本,使用固定效应模型研究发现:当期稳健性程度的增高对下一期自由现金流水平有显著的抑制作用;此外本文还使用变化模型证明了两者之间的因果关系,即是稳健性的增加导致了自由现金流的下降,而非相反方向。本文的研究结论说明了高质量会计信息对代理成本的缓解作用,企业可以通过提高稳健性降低自由现金流。     

Optimal policy and the risk properties of human capital reconsidered

This paper considers how optimal education and tax policy depends on the risk properties of human capital. A key feature of human capital investments is whether they increase or decrease wage risk. In a benchmark model it is shown that this feature alone determines whether a constrained optimal allocation should be characterized by a positive or a negative education premium. In the same model a positive intertemporal wedge is optimal. The robustness of these results is explored in two generalizations: nonobservability of education and nonobservability of consumption. Finally, policies that implement the constrained efficient allocations are considered.     

Robust portfolio rules and detection-error probabilities for a mean-reverting risk premium

I analyze the optimal intertemporal portfolio problem of an investor who worries about model misspecification and insists on robust decision rules when facing a mean-reverting risk premium. The desire for robustness lowers the total equity share, but increases the proportion of the intertemporal hedging demand. I present a methodology for calculation of detection-error probabilities, which is based on Fourier inversion of the conditional characteristic functions of the Radon-Nikodym derivatives. The quantitative effect of robustness is more modest than in i.i.d. settings, because model discrimination between the benchmark and the worst-case alternative model is easier, as indicated by the detection-error probabilities.     

国际资本流动“突然停止”、消费平滑与最优外汇储备持有量*

通常认为外汇储备具有抵御外部冲击、平滑居民消费、增进社会福利的作用。循此逻辑,文章构建了三部门模型模拟了货币当局面临资本流动“突然停止”时,出于平滑消费目的的最优储备持有行为。研究发现：中国静态最优外汇储备量约占GDP的1926%;中国实际储备与最优储备的差额自2010年起稳定在18万亿美元;最优外汇储备量与“突然停止”发生概率及其导致的产出损失、短期外债规模、居民存款规模及危机时的资产置换比率、风险规避程度正相关,与银行备付金比率、国际风险溢价程度负相关;从危机应急的角度看,提高银行备付金比率、控制居民存款置换外币比例能有效节约外汇储备,但从长远来看控制国内短期外债规模、确保银行稳健运营才是应对国际资本“突然停止”风险的关键。     

Education expansion and decline in tertiary premium in Brazil: 1995-2013

Using Brazil National Household Survey 1995–2013 data, this paper examines how the education expansion in Brazil impacted the tertiary premium through the interaction of relative supply and relative demand. The identification of the impact of relative demand on education premium provides an empirical testing of the Heckscher-Ohlin model in the context of Brazil. The results suggest that the change in relative supply had converged the education premium thus converged the wage income distribution. The results also show that there was no decrease in relative demand for skilled workers in Brazil in the past two decades, which is inconsistent with what the Heckscher-Ohlin model predicts.     

The Impact of Green Building Labels on the Price of Housing: Evidence from China

This paper focuses on the willingness to pay for green housing in China. First, we introduce green building related labels in China and briefly discuss the consumers’ incentives to buy this kind of building. Second, with the available transaction data in Shanghai, a hedonic regression model is applied to investigate whether or not a price premium in the residential market exists. Furthermore, we use the nonparametric matching model under a treatment framework to see the robustness of our results. The empirical result shows there exists a significant price premium in China. However, the premium does not increase with quality certification tiers. That may imply that homebuyers in China are not sensitive to the differences among green buildings although they are willing to pay a higher price for this newly emerging energy-saving building. And we also give the explanation why this has happened.     

Quantifying the recapitalization fund premium using option pricing techniques

The purpose of the paper consists in developing a formula for quantifying the premium a bank is expected to pay for a fund that provides recapitalization in order to allow orderly failure if the bank is in financial distress. The main finding is that such a premium can be computed as the difference between the prices of two European put options.     

"二孩政策"与学区房溢价——基于人口政策变化的政策评价分析

我国人口生育政策的调整是政府在我国经济进入中高速发展阶段之后做出的重大决策,对社会经济各个方面会产生重要影响.文章着眼于政策调整、家庭规划和政府公共产品需求,以上海市住房数据为基础,分析了我国"二孩政策"对现阶段学区房价格的影响.文章以特征回归模型为基础,讨论了人口政策变化对学区房价格的影响.研究发现,在人口新政出台后,与临近的普通住房相比,学区房的相对溢价程度更高.文章进一步采用固定边界法,发现优质学区房的溢价涨幅(约为8.6%-11.8%)高于普通学区房(约为2.49%-3.97%),充分说明在人口政策调整后,我国部分家庭对优质教育更加渴望.文章采用匹配回归进行了稳健性检验,仍支持上述研究结论.     

Employer size–wage effects: evidence from matched employer–employee survey data in the UK

This paper employs a random sample of matched employer–employee data from the UK to test seven possible explanations for the positive relationship between employer size and pay. Individual wage equations show a large employer size–wage premium. We then control for a range of establishment-level variables, based on seven hypotheses typically advanced to explain this premium. Each establishment-level factor reduces the wage premium, but a sizeable premium nonetheless remains. In adjudicating on these hypotheses, we find a strong association between the internal labour market and the employer size–wage premium. This finding supports the theory that the employer size–wage effect may be due to the higher costs of turnover or monitoring in larger firms. However, we find contrasting effects for public versus private sector establishments.     

Liquidity Preference and Financial Intermediation

We examine the characteristics of optimal monetary policies in a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets. Markets are incomplete because of uninsured preference uncertainty, and because productive capital is traded infrequently. Rational individuals are willing to hold a liquid asset—"money"—at a premium. Monetary policy interacts with existing financial institutions to determine this premium, as well as the level of precautionary holdings. We show that inflation is expansionary, and that the optimal inflation rate is positive if there is no operative banking system (the Tobin effect). Otherwise, efficiency requires that money be undominated in its rate of return (the Friedman Rule).     

Costly investment, complementarities and the skill premium

We propose a new framework to analyse the relationship between the relative high-skilled labour endowment, the skill premium and economic growth. Building on Acemoglu and Zilibotti (2001), we introduce physical capital; internal costly investment in both capital and R&D; and complementarities between intermediate goods. We only find a positive relationship between the relative labour endowment and both the skill premium and economic growth within determined intervals of relative labour endowment values, which vary with the absolute productive advantage of high over low-skilled labour. The model thus accommodates theoretically mixed empirical results on the relative labour endowment-skill premium relationship. We further find that the impact on both the relative labour endowment and the skill premium of a rise in investment costs or in the complementarities degree depends on: (i) the absolute productivity advantage of high over low-skilled labour; and (ii) the relative labour endowment.