论加快我国科技经济一体化建设

科学技术是第一生产力，是推动社会经济发展的重要因素，尤其是随着全球经济一体化和经济知识化、信息化趋势的加快、科技进步对经济发展的影响越来越深刻，作用越来越大。但是当前我国科技发展中的最大问题是，科学技术与经济关系不密切，科学技术在促进国民经济快速健康发展方面还没有发挥应有的作用。为此，本通过研究科技与经济相互作用的机理和运行机制，分析了当前影响科技经济一体化发展的障碍因素，提出了进一步推动我国科技与经济深度结合的战略与对策。     

新经济对财务会计的挑战

20世纪90年代以来，以信息技术为主要标志的新经济的发展来势凶猛：高科技向现实生产力的转化越来越快，高新技术产业在整个经济中的比重不断增加：经济与科技的结合日益紧密，国际间科技、经济的交流合作不断扩大，产业技术升级加快，国际经济结构加速重组，科技、经济越来越趋于全球化；科技革命创造了新的技术经济体系，产生了新的生产管理和组织形式，推动了世界经济的增长。新经济时代的到来给财务会计的各个方面带来了前所未有的挑战：     

在两个转变中重视科技第一生产力──对南京、盐城、锡山等地的调研报告

1996年6、7月间，江苏省社科联和邓小平理论研究会联合组织部分会员，分三个小组，分别赴南京、盐城、锡山等地，就各地在实行两个转变中重视科技第一生产力，依靠科技进步，促进经济发展的情况进行了调查。南京组重点调查民营科技企业的发展现状；盐城组侧重了解经济欠发达地区抓科技与经济结合，促经济发展的实践状况；锡山组主要调查作为全国科技百强县（市）和全国综合实力百强县（市）之首的锡山市重视科技第一生产力的经验。一、促进科技与经济结合的有益启示1．面向市场需求推动科技应用与开发，可以使科技与经济的结合走上良性循环…     

对乌克兰科技创新发展经济的认识

科技创新发展经济是全球科技与经济发展的趋势，本文研究了乌克兰在经济转型期依赖科技创新发展经济的一些主要政策和措施，对我国开展技术创新与发展经济有一定的借鉴意义。     

欠发达地区科技创新与科技产业化之路探析--以浙江省金华市为例

经济发展理论和国际经验表明，科技创新与科技产业化是经济增长的源泉，是企业发展的动力。例如，日本在第二次世界大战之后，在经济落后情况下，实施了以技术创新为主导的经济发展战略，只用了几十年的时间，便发展成为发达的工业化强国。在当今经济全球化背景下，科技创新成为提升企业、产业和区域经济三个层次国际国内竞争力的关键，科技产业化成为经济发展壮大的最有效途径。在这种背景下，经济欠发达地区尤其要重视科技创新和科技产业化。     

中国经济增长与科技投入的关系

本文以1953-2002年间经济增长和科技投入的数据为基础，分析了科技投入对中国经济增长的贡献率，表明科技投入与我国经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系，在一定程度上促进了我国经济的增长；科技投入对经济增长的贡献率约为17．5％。     

浅论企业技术创新在经济增长方式转变中的作用

一、经济增长方式与技术创新技术创新是从新产品、新工艺的设想的产生研究开发、工程化、商业化生产到扩散的一系列活动，最终目的是技术的商业化运用和创新产品的市场成功。技术创新经济理论自本世纪奥地利经济学家熊彼特提出至今，在科技、经济、社会生活各领域影响广泛，为世界各国协调经济与科技、充分发挥科技的经济作用，实现科技经济一体化提供了崭新的思路和理论指导。传统的经济增长方式即是依靠增加生产要素的投入、以生产规模的扩大为外在表现的外延型粗放型经营方式。一般说来，这是当一个国家处于工业化初期甚至中期，需要迅速…     

切实加强党的领导实施科教兴市战略

在实施“九五”计划开局之年，我们市委、市政府在对全市科技发展现状深入调查的基础上，作出了实施科教兴市战略、加速科技进步的决定，制定了科教兴市战略规划和科技进步奖励政策、办法，决心以经济建设为中心，以深化科技体制改革为动力，以提高劳动者素质和推进科技进步为重点，加大科技与经济结合的力度，加大科技成果应用和转化的力度，加大科技投入的力度，加大人才培养的力度，促进科技教育整体水平的提高，促进经济增长方式的根本转变，促进十堰经济快速发展和社会全面进步。实施这个战略，目的在于兴市，菝心是加速经济发展，近期目标是全面     

新发展格局下我国科技创新体系的适配性与路径研究

在新发展格局中如何优化我国科技创新体系问题越发重要。以新发展格局内涵和实现路径分析为基础，通过经济双循环和科技创新体系的基本逻辑，刻画其理论模型，总结新发展格局下经济体系在供给和需求端的变化以及科技创新体系在提出问题和解决问题面临的关键变化，进而在经济双循环与科技创新体系之间建立适配模型，将经济双循环中的关键变化与科技创新体系联动整合，探究经济双循环中供给和需求端的变化对科技创新体系中提出问题和解决问题带来的机遇和挑战，进一步明确新发展格局中科技创新体系潜在风险和机会，提出以创新模式加强国际合作、拓宽获取提出创新问题渠道、提升前沿科学问题解决能力以及调整科技创新体系结构等若干优化建议和对策。     

切实加强党的领导 实施科教兴市战略

在实施“九五”计划开局之年，我们市委、市政府在对全市科技发展现状深入调查的基础上，作出了实施科教兴市战略、加速科技进步的决定，制定了科教兴市战略规划和科技进步奖励政策、办法，决心以经济建设为中心，以深化科技体制改革为动力，以提高劳动者素质和推进科技进步为重点，加大科技与经济结合的力度，加大科技成果应用和转化的力度，加大科技投入的力度，加大人才培养的力度，促进科技教育整体水平的提高，促进经济增长方式的根本转变，促进十堰经济快速发展和社会全面进步。实施这个战略，目的在于兴市，菝心是加速经济发展，近期目标是全面实现全市“九五”计划目标。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.