模拟征收碳税对我国经济的影响——基于DSGE模型的研究

本文通过一个多部门动态随机一般均衡模型,模拟了征收碳税前后的总产出、环境质量在多种外生冲击下的动态反应,比较和分析了碳排放强度目标分别下降20%和40%时,征收碳税和提高碳税税率的效果。研究表明:(1)减排目标为20%时,所有外生冲击对总产出和环境质量的影响介于不征收碳税和减排目标为40%之间;(2)不同于货币政策冲击和政府购买冲击,征收碳税后的劳动力供给冲击和生产率冲击可以实现经济增长和环境质量提高的"双赢"局面;(3)征收碳税在时间和强度上对环境质量有明显的改善作用,但前提是制定合理的减排目标;(4)随着碳税税率的提高,减排效果也愈发明显,但总产出表现不同程度的下降,减排目标越大,总产出下降越明显。     

碳税预期对江苏林业产业的规制效率分析

林业产业的生态属性单靠纯粹的市场机制是无法保证供给的,必须借助一定程度的规制手段才能纠正林木资源配置中出现的市场失灵。文章从林业产业碳税设计的原则与要求出发,构建了CO_2减排模型,设计了碳税规制效率指标,并以江苏林业产业为研究对象,预测了2014-2020年江苏省林业产业总产值及CO_2排放水平,指出预期碳税征收可采用芬兰的低税模式,并对林业产业碳税规制效率进行衡量。研究认为江苏林业产业的产值依然以均衡的比例保持递增趋势,单位产值排放的CO_2量成递减趋势,且下降幅度趋缓。说明碳税的征收可以提高林业产业的运行效率,但短期内难以实现林业产业的CO_2绝对减排。     

碳税的经济效应分析

我国在应对气候变化领域正面临着严峻的挑战。气候变化是环境问题,从根本上说是发展问题,应该在可持续发展框架内综合解决。碳税是减少碳排放的一种重要的经济手段,在减排中应有所为。该文研究开征碳税作为应对气候变化的重要税收政策工具,分析征收碳税的经济效应,探讨碳税对经济增长、收入分配和节能减排的影响,以实现减排效果最佳。     

中国电力行业减排政策——基于电力需求函数的实证分析

利用2003—2015年中国的省际面板数据,通过估计电力需求函数模拟碳税的政策效果,为电力行业减排政策的制定提供了参考。结果表明:随着中国经济进入新常态,电价对电力需求的影响减弱,产业结构特别是工业内部结构的调整对电力需求和电力消费结构产生一定影响;由于电力需求对电价变动不敏感,因此碳税的减排效果有限;为实现减排目标,政府需要征收高额碳税,但这在现有的电价水平下较难实施;从减排效果和实施难度两个方面来看,当前暂不开征碳税的减排政策具有一定合理性;与碳税相比,加快供给侧结构性改革、降低火力发电比重,能够更有效地实现减排目标;现阶段政府应将调整电源结构作为节能减排工作的重点。     

碳税征收与能源密集型产业能源效率的提高

本文基于对已有关于征收碳税的研究的综述,认为碳税征收短期内会增加能源密集型产业的税收负担,但从长期看,碳税征收通过提高产业集中度和优化企业分工结构的机制使得企业内部结构,进一步能促进产业内的结构调整,使产业获得规模经济效应和提高能源效率,从而促进产业的发展和节能减排水平的提高     

碳税的收入分配效应研究

碳税是减少碳排放的一种重要的经济手段。碳税开征与否的主要争论在于：一方面,征收碳税是否会对经济增长产生较大影响;另外一方面,征收碳税是否会加大收入差距。在制定碳税政策时,需要探讨碳税实施后对收入分配产生负面影响的可能性,权衡公平目标与二氧化碳减排效果。     

关于我国开征碳税相关问题的思考

本文从节能减排为背景,探讨了我国开征碳税的相关问题。文章首先对碳税的基本概念和特性进行了分析,对国外实施碳税的具体情况和经验进行了介绍,对碳税的影响进行了分析与回顾,在此基础上,提出了我国开展碳税的具体制度设计,以及在实施碳税过程中应注意的问题。     

碳税对我国的影响及其政策响应

二氧化碳(CO2)是引起全球气候变化的最重要的温室气体(GHG)之一。温室气体的减排是当前国际社会普遍关注的热点环境问题。碳税常常被认为是成本有效的碳减排政策工具,目前已有一些国家征收碳税或能源税。文章介绍了碳税的理论基础及其在一些国家的征收实践,总结和分析了国内外一些学者关于实施碳税对温室气体减排、对经济和能源系统的影响的研究结果,并在此基础上讨论了我国对碳税制度的政策响应和对策。     

基于可计算一般均衡模型的中国碳税政策模拟

减少二氧化碳温室气体排放是各国都要面临的共同任务之一,征收碳税是积极应对气候变化和促进节能减排的有效政策工具。利用可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),探讨了实施碳税政策对中国各行业的温室气体排放及宏观经济影响。模拟结果显示,征收碳税是一种可行的政策选择,对温室气体的排放有明显的抑制作用。碳税的征收方法要本着公平公正的原则在全社会统一进行。碳税的税率不宜过高,当碳税征收在20元每吨标准煤时,二氧化碳排放减少了4.3%,GDP相对上升3.4%,适度地征收碳税可以促进经济总量的提升,在传统能源生产和消耗型产业适度降低生产规模的条件下换来了第三产业的高速发展。     

发碳税政策对于河南经济-环境-能源系统的影响

为了更精确的研究碳税政策对我国区域经济-环境-能源系统的影响,本文通过建立CGE模型来研究减少碳排放、实施碳税政策对河南能源消耗、碳排放以及社会经济的影响,影响结果表明：随着二氧化碳减排目标的不断升高,碳税水平也在不断提高;同时河南消耗的主要能源是煤炭,碳税的征收对于煤炭消费有较大的抑制作用,同时征收碳对河南的社会经济有一定的负面冲击。     

中国工业部门的能源效率与减排潜力分析

基于全要素能源效率框架,本文通过引入方向性距离函数和数据包络分析,测算了中国工业部门2000-2009年的能源效率和CO2减排潜力。实证结果表明,以既定最优生产前沿为参考,中国工业部门的总体能源效率偏低,减排潜力较大;各行业能源效率与减排潜力存在较大差异;不同行业能源效率与减排潜力呈现差异性动态变化。本文认为政府可以通过实施差异性碳税政策、灵活利用碳市场机制、强化节能技术研发和促进可再生能源利用以及加强企业环境执法监管等举措来推动中国工业部门提高能源效率及减少CO2排放。     

Carbon Taxation, Fuel Substitution and Welfare in Australia

This paper examines the potential role for fuel substitution in electricity production in reducing carbon dioxide emissions over a ten-year time horizon. This is achieved by adding fuel substitution to output changes resulting from demand responses arising from a tax on carbon dioxide emissions. A time profile of adjustments is developed. The tax required for Australia to meet a 20 per cent reduction in emissions from 1993 levels is calculated and effects on inequality and social welfare are examined. The paper also examines the potential effect of a subsidy towards the use of low-emission fuels, financed from the carbon tax. A subsidy produces an improvement in emissions abatement and a lower tax required to reach the emissions target.     

An integrated tax-subsidy policy for carbon emission reduction

A carbon tax is often cited by economists as an effective instrument to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but there is little political interest in the United States. In light of this political unpopularity, we develop and examine a net-revenue constrained carbon tax and subsidy program. The optimal revenue constrained tax and subsidy schedule based on our utility maximization model taxes energy sources with high emissions to energy price ratio, and subsidizes sources with low emissions to energy price ratios. This approach may be more palatable than a traditional carbon tax because it can change the relative price of low and high emissions energy sources while providing a mechanism to limit net tax increases and energy price increases. We find that a constrained tax/subsidy program provides welfare gains relative to a no-tax scenario. Welfare gains are estimated to be 1% and 36% of the welfare gains from a Pigouvian tax for the motor fuels industry and electric power industry, respectively. In contrast, subsidies for low-emitting energy sources funded from general tax funds rather than from high-emission energy tax revenues lead to welfare decreases substantially below our proposed tax/subsidy policy approach.     

Who Pays a Price on Carbon?

We use the 2003 Consumer Expenditure Survey and emissions estimates from an input-output model based on the 1997 US economy to estimate the incidence of a price on carbon induced by a cap-and-trade program or carbon tax in the context of the US. We present results on how much different income deciles pay for a carbon tax as well as which industries see the largest increase in costs due to a carbon tax. We illustrate the main determinant of the regressivity: consumption patterns for energy-intensive goods. Furthermore, on a per-capita basis a carbon price is much more regressive than calculations at the household level. We discuss policy options to offset the adverse distributional effects of a carbon emissions policy.     

Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Australia: A Minimum Disruption Approach

Abstract
While at the Toronto Conference in 1988, Australia adopted a target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per cent of 1988 levels by the year 2005, however action to reduce emissions has been negligible. Unilateral action is deemed too costly in terms of the negative effects it could have on employment, GDP growth, exports and international competitiveness .
Most Australian studies have evaluated the effect on such variables of employing a specified policy instrument, such as a carbon tax, to reduce emissions. This study instead uses an input-output method developed by Proops, Faber and Wagenhals (1993) to ascertain the minimum set of changes necessary in different sectors of the economy required to achieve the Toronto Target, where constraints on key macroeconomic variables, such as GDP growth and the level of employment, are met. The cost of reducing emissions is defined here in terms of the required structural changes, when factors like GDP growth are held positive .
The results suggest that the necessary changes in various sectors under each of the scenarios are not far removed from the observed rates of change for Australia. The results are also consistent with those obtained for both Germany and the United Kingdom .     

Implications of incorporating domestic margins into analyses of energy taxation and climate change policies

In most applied general equilibrium (AGE) analyses, the domestic transportation, wholesaling, and retailing services that facilitate the flow of goods and services from producers to consumers are not identified by commodity or use. Because the margins on energy commodities can be substantial, ignoring these domestic margins has important consequences when analyzing the impacts of policies designed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. This paper incorporates domestic trade and transport margins into the GTAP-E model, which has previously been used to analyze climate change policies. Models that do not explicitly incorporate domestic margins over-estimate the reduction in CO₂ emissions from a given carbon tax or under-estimate the level of a carbon tax needed to achieve a specific abatement target when domestic margins are fixed or when the carbon tax is treated as a consumption tax with variable domestic margins. However, this result can be reversed when the carbon tax is treated as an output tax with variable domestic margins.     

产业集聚、外商直接投资与碳减排 ——基于中介效应与面板门槛模型分析

作为当今世界碳排放量第一的国家,中国如何发展绿色低碳经济,走好可持续发展道路,备受国内外关注。选取2004-2017年我国省际面板数据,基于产业集聚外部效应视角,采用中介效应分析方法研究产业集聚对碳排放的影响,并以外商直接投资作为门槛变量,进一步分析二者关系。得出以下结论：(1)外商直接投资在产业集聚影响碳排放的过程中起到部分中介效应,中介效应值为31.1%。(2)产业集聚与碳排放之间存在双重门槛效应,二者关系呈倒U型。当外商直接投资处于低水平时,产业集聚会增加碳排放量,当外商直接投资水平跨越更高门槛值,产业集聚的正外部性凸显,抑制碳排放量增加。(3)经济发展水平和能源结构对碳排放量均产生显著正向影响,产业结构优化能抑制碳排放量增加。（4）经库兹涅茨曲线检验，产业集聚与碳排放关系为倒U型，且产业集聚临界值为2.389。     

中国产业结构变动的碳排放效应分析——基于省际数据的实证研究

在碳排放模型框架内，利用测算的全国省际二氧化碳排放数据，通过设定多种模型形式考察了各种因素特别是产业结构变动对二氧化碳排放产生的影响。分析结果表明，产业结构的工业化进程直接加剧了二氧化碳的排放，产业结构变化是中国碳排放增长的重要驱动因素之一，其影响程度较大；同时，FDI环境效应的合力是负面的，贸易并非国际碳污染转移的主要渠道。     

瑞典碳税对产业结构水平影响的实证分析

为了降低二氧化碳的排放水平，实现可持续发展，一些国家以碳税作为发展低碳经济的重要手段。碳税是从多方面促进低碳经济的，对产业结构的升级和转型至关重要。在分析瑞典碳税政策、测算瑞典产业结构水平的基础上，本文对瑞典碳税与产业结构水平的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明，瑞典碳税是提高瑞典产业结构水平的重要因素。据此，本文提出了关于我国开征碳税的建议。