技术进步的“体现观”与技术收敛测度指标构建

技术进步在经济增长与区域经济协调发展中的动力作用一直是人们关注的话题。区域间技术收敛是实现区域间经济收敛的必要条件。文章从经济增长理论中技术进步的分类出发,剖析了外生与内生、体现式与非体现式、资本偏向和劳动偏向等概念之间的关系,进一步给出了技术收敛的测度指标体系。文章认为,当前关于技术内生和外生的研究并没有与技术进步的"体现观"结合起来。新古典增长理论中所指的技术进步主要是非体现式的技术进步。内生增长理论中的体现式技术进步主要是体现在资本或劳动力中的技术进步。所以,技术收敛的分析应该在经济收敛分析方法的基础上,充分考虑体现在资本和劳动力中的技术和没有体现在要素中的技术,建立相应的测度指标体系。这种测度技术收敛的方法与一般性的技术收敛测度相比具有明显的优点,对相关的产业技术政策、人力资本流动政策以及产业转移等政策的制定具有重要的指导意义。     

技术进步、工资差距与人力资本形成

本文在劳动力异质的假设下通过建立一个二元经济模型分析发展中国家技术进步与收入差距的关系,结果显示技术进步主要通过直接和间接两种途径影响收入差距:其一,通过提高相应劳动力的劳动效率,提高其工资;其二,通过收入差距的扩大,吸引劳动力进行人力资本投资,从而劳动效率的提高,影响其收入.并得也结论,不同类型的技术进步对收入差距的影响存在较大差异,而这种差异在某种程度上影响人力资本投资,因此,在城乡转化的过程中,要缩小收入差距必须选择适当的技术进步,而且还要结合长期经济发展注意保持相应的收入差别.     

发达国家农业可持续增长的经验及启示——人口转型与技术进步

完成人口转型的发达国家中,土地、劳动力等传统农业生产要素已不再是农业增长的主要影响因素。而实际上人口转型已成为影响农业技术进步的决定性因素。文章基于1980-2000年14个已完成人口转型的发达国家面板数据的实证分析,通过农业技术与农业增长、人口转型与技术进步两个模型的检验结果,验证了发达国家农业人口数量的减少、受教育水平的提高对技术进步具有正向影响,通过对发达国家农业可持续增长的经验分析,得出中国农业可持续增长的关键为重视农村教育、加快农业人口转型以及提高农业科技投入。同时给出中国农业可持续增长的政策建议:利用教育投资的外溢效应促进农业人口转型,借助科技投入步入高效益农业可持续增长轨道。     

技术选择、技术替代与技术创新战略选择

技术创新是目前推动经济增长的最主要因素,高新技术中小企业要在技术选择和技术替代中,根据我国高新技术产业技术创新的特点和企业自身资源优势,选择合适的技术创新战略,推动企业发展.     

技术进步、优势转换与中国FDI的发展

技术进步、全球化的深入发展改变了发展中国家FDI的相对技术优势,自动化控制技术的发展使小规模定制成为一种时尚,大大降低了规模经济的门槛,使发展中国家原有的小规模技术优势不断弱化,全球化导致的全球消费文化的趋同也大大削弱了发展中国家固有的技术地方化优势;但技术进步导致的产业链拉长,各国产业结构差异的扩大却进一步提升了发展中国家的边际产业比较优势和技术创新升级优势;技术与分工的复杂化,基于价值链和竞合原则的现代分工模式也使逆向技术整合,新产业的蛙跳成为可能,也使所有权优势,内部化优势和区位优势成为自足的对外直接投资条件,进一步增加了发展中国家对外直接投资的机会。只有充分认识到技术进步对发展中国家相对技术优势带来的影响,我们才能抓住技术进步带来的机遇,促进中国跨国企业FDI的更大发展。     

The organizational evolution of innovative activity in the US semiconductor industry: Technological specialization and diversification

This article analyzes the organizational evolution of innovative activity in the contemporary high-tech industry. It has been argued that by showing illuminating examples and proposing theoretical explanations, the innovation process has been fragmented and distributed among several organizations. In other words, ‘division of innovative labor’ emerges. However, one of the problems of this argument lies in its lack of systematic empirical analysis. Using the United States Patent and Trademark Office patent database, this article analyzes the organization of innovative activity in the US semiconductor industry. It is shown that ‘technological specialization’ has not occurred in this industry as a whole. In addition, it is also shown that there are two distinct modes of development of technology, namely, ‘specialized development of technology’ and ‘diversified development of technology’, in which the share of the latter has been steadily increasing. These results imply that contrary to the earlier conventional arguments, division of labor is not a common phenomenon in the production of technological knowledge.     

企业家技术进步路径选择与经济增长

发达国家的知识和技术进步速度越快,发展中国家越是能收到技术模仿的好处,从而带来较高的经济增长率。越是接近技术前沿的发达国家,创新型企业家的作用越大,离技术前沿越远的发展中国家,模仿型企业家的作用往往更明显。发展中国家的企业家通过知识过滤、吸收、模仿、"干中学",不断积累人力资本和物质资本,为自主创新积蓄力量,最终能实现模仿式创新和自主创新的良性互动。     

外国直接投资、技术许可与技术创新

本文以经济全球化条件下 ,以包括中国在内的发展中国家努力向发达国家通过FDI(国外直接投资 )和LICENSING(技术许可 )的渠道进行技术引进以达到自主技术创新从而推动本国经济持续增长的目标为背景 ,建立了一个技术引进与经济增长的扩展模型。本文的主要结论是 :对于包括中国在内的发展中国家 (LDC)而言 ,技术许可比FDI所带来的技术外溢更有效 ,LDC或者依赖FDI,或者依靠技术许可作为其技术引进的主要来源。没有相应管制时倾向于依赖FDI。考虑制定何种政策以达到社会福利的最优化时 ,人力资本的水平起到了决定性作用。     

技术创新活动中政府和企业作用的实证分析

文章利用2003-2011年中国31个省、自治区、直辖市的面板数据,采用面板协整方法捕捉政府行为和企业自主行为对技术创新的动态影响。研究发现,企业行为是推动中国技术创新发展的重要动力,但企业技术创新的主体地位还没有完全确立;政府行为对促进技术创新发展有着重要意义：政府对人力资本的投入和技术市场的完善对技术创新有明显的积极作用,政府的技术创新投入对技术创新有促进作用,政府采购对技术创新有正向的作用,但显著度不够高。因此,建议加快确立企业技术创新核心主体地位,同时政府应加大教育投入力度,进一步完善技术市场,调整政府采购结构并加大政府采购对技术创新倾斜的力度。     

Technological paradigms,patterns of learning and development: An introductory roadmap

This paper presents an evolutionary microeconomic theory of innovation and production and discusses its implications for development theory. Using the notions of technological paradigm and trajectory, it develops an alternative view of firm behavior and learning. It is shown then how these are embedded in broader national systems of innovation which account for persistent differences in technological cappacities between countries. Finally, this bottom-up evolutionary analysis is linked with an institutional top-down approach, and the potential fruitfulness of this dialogue is demonstrated.We thank the discussants and participants at the workshop on Technology and Competitiveness in Developing Countries, Venice, 26/11/93, for their useful comments.The research leading to this work has benefited at various stages from the support of the Italian National Research Council (CNR, Progetto Strategico Combiamento Technologico e Crescita Economica) and of the International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA, Austria).     

全球技术进步速度加快的成因及启示

本文系统地论述了全球技术进步加快发展的七大成因,剖析了全球技术进步速度加快给中国企业参与全球战略竞争带来了诸如技术赶超、时间紧迫、速度竞争、R&D投入资金、技术创新模式选择等多重压力.作者认为,中国企业应该从企业创新文化的构建、技术创新速度竞争、加大R＆D投入力度与合理选择企业技术成长模式等方面应对挑战.     

技术投资选择与模仿陷阱问题研究

文章通过将中间产品生产厂商的技术投资选择引入罗默三部门内生增长模型中,构建了一个基于水平创新的技术进步模型。运用该模型对技术追随国技术赶超中厂商的技术投资选择与模仿向自主创新转型的问题进行研究。通过研究发现,技术赶超过程中经济运行的路径要经历模仿、创新两个均衡点。厂商利润为正时会进行技术投资,而厂商的技术投资选择模仿或者是创新会影响经济能否顺利跨越模仿陷阱而跃迁到创新均衡点。经济中能影响厂商技术投资选择的内部和外部因素都会对跨越模仿陷阱产生相应的作用;技术赶超国应该积极地提高企业的价值,提高技术知识储备和高人力资本的储备,同时还要大力建设国家的创新能力为企业创新营造一个好的创新环境。     

A functional approach for studying technological progress: Extension to energy technology

This paper extends a broad functional category approach for the study of technological capability progress recently developed and applied to information technology to a second key case—that of energy based technologies. The approach is applied to the same three functional operations—storage, transportation and transformation—that were used for information technology by first building a 100 plus year database for each of the three energy-based functional categories. In agreement with the results for information technology in the first paper, the energy technology results indicate that the functional approach offers a stable methodology for assessing longer time technological progress trends. Moreover, similar to what was found with information technology in the first study, the functional capability for energy technology shows continual—if not continuous—improvement that is best quantitatively described as exponential with respect to time. The absence of capability discontinuities—even with large technology displacement—and the lack of clear saturation effects are found with energy as it was with information. However, some key differences between energy and information technology are seen and these include:

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Lower rates of progress for energy technology over the entire period: 19-37% annually for Information Technology and 3-13% for Energy Technology.

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Substantial variability of progress rates is found within given functional categories for energy compared to relatively small variation within any one category for information technology. The strongest variation is found among capability progress among different energy types.

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More challenging data recovery and metric definition for energy as compared to information technology.

These findings are interpreted in terms of fundamental differences between energy and information including the losses and efficiency constraints on energy. We apply Whitney's insight that these fundamental differences lead to naturally modular information technology artifacts. The higher progress rates of information-based as opposed to energy-based technologies follows since decomposable systems can progress more rapidly due to the greater ease of independent as opposed to simultaneous development. In addition, the broad implications of our findings to studies of the relationships between technical and social change are briefly discussed.     

Technological evolution and interdependence in China's emerging biofuel industry

This study uses the European Patent Office worldwide patent database and applies two-stage interactive data collection methods to reveal the evolving technological interdependence for China's emerging biofuel industry. Three findings are excerpted from our empirical results. First, due to dominant patterns of business ownership, China's biofuel technology is seen as largely based on the evolutionary strength of the foodstuff and chemical fields. Second, China's biofuel technology development has evolved in the mode of ‘forward engineering’, led by Chinese universities rather than initiated by the public research institutes as in the experience of other East Asian latecomers. Third, our patent map and technology trajectory analyses illustrate that China's biofuel technology tends to be application-oriented and highly intertwined with the pharmaceutical industry since the 2000s, which evidences the development of biofuel industry as reciprocally reinforcing China's innovation capability deriving from its prominent chemical sector. By examining endogenous technology capability embedded in the national innovation capacity, this study uncovers public implications for other technology latecomers attempting to build an emerging industry while facing technology uncertainty in a transitional society.     

Percolation Processes, Technological Externalities and the Evolution of Technological Clubs

Technological cooperation has become more widespread in recent years. Percolation processes have been studied in physics as the outcome of four classes of forces termed as density, external pressure, connectivity and receptivity. In this paper the methodology of percolation processes has been adapted to interpret the dynamics of knowledge flows within innovation networks as communication systems and to understand the evolution of technological cooperation among firms both within and among industries.     

董事会治理与企业技术创新:理论与实证

本文在代理理论的框架内考察了公司治理之董事会治理与企业技术创新投入的关系,并基于2004-2008年501家中国上市公司的数据对此进行了实证研究。结果表明:1)董事会规模与企业技术创新投入存在不显著的负相关关系;2)独立董事占比与企业技术创新投入存在显著的正相关关系,独立董事占比较高的企业其技术创新投入要显著高于独立董事占比较低的企业;3)董事长与总经理两职分离的制度安排对企业技术创新投入有显著的积极影响,两职分离的企业其技术创新投入要显著高于两职合一的企业;4)董事会股权激励对企业技术创新存在积极影响,董事会股权激励水平越高,企业技术创新投入越多,但这种发现仅具有较低的统计显著性。     

所有权安排与技术创新绩效

技术创新合约是一个不完全合约,创新所有权配置影响各方的专用性投资激励.本文采用不完全合约理论分析显示:技术创新的所有权应该配置给对投资激励和产出贡献重要的一方;建立多元化技术创新融资体系和在创新资源分配中引入竞标体制,会增加创新的社会总盈余;技术创新资源的平均分配和资源配置中的寻租行为会降低技术创新的社会总盈余,中国工业技术创新绩效的持续改善要求建立效率导向的创新所有权安排.     

环境规制强度和生产技术进步

波特假说认为,合适的环境规制能激发"创新补偿"效应,从而不仅能弥补企业的"遵循成本",还能提高企业的生产率和竞争力。由于其本身的现实意义,引发了大量学者对此进行研究。然而到目前为止,关于环境规制强度与企业生产技术进步之间的关系却鲜有文献提及。为此,本文在环境规制强度和企业生产技术进步之间构建了数理模型,并采用面板数据方法,对1998—2007年中国30个省份的工业部门进行了检验,研究结果表明:(1)在东部和中部地区,初始较弱的环境规制强度确实削弱了企业的生产技术进步率,然而,随着环境规制强度的增加,企业的生产技术进步率逐步提高,即环境规制强度和企业生产技术进步之间呈现"U"型关系;(2)在西部地区,受到环境规制形式的影响,环境规制强度和企业的生产技术进步之间尚未形成在统计意义上显著的"U"型关系。因此,从长远的角度看,政府应当制定合理的环境规制政策,使企业不仅能实现治污技术的提升,而且能实现生产技术的进步,进而为中国实现环境保护和经济增长的"双赢"提供技术支持。     

后发经济体技术赶超中的转型陷阱

文章通过将中间产品生产厂商的异质性结构引入罗默三部门内生增长模型中,构建了一个基于垂直创新的技术进步模型。运用该模型对后发经济体技术赶超中不同阶段间过渡时存在的技术进步模式转型陷阱的问题进行理论性分析。通过研究发现,技术赶超过程中要依次经历专注模仿、模仿并且创新、专注创新三个阶段。后发经济体技术进步会从一个阶段进入下一个阶段,然而各个阶段间技术进步模式转型不是自然发生的,而是存在着转型陷阱。第一次转型会经历创新停滞陷阱,第二次转型可能会出现模仿陷阱,而陷入模仿陷阱的经济体在技术水平达到一定程度时会出现技术进步减缓甚至是倒退。后发经济体一旦陷入模仿陷阱将很难接近世界技术前沿,技术赶超也就无法实现。     

Path-dependent economic progress and regress: The negative role of subsidies in economic growth

This paper develops a two-stage economic growth model with real options and examines the effects of various subsidy policies. The economic stages are the deterministic and stochastic AK stages, and the economy may shift between the two, depending upon state variables and technological shocks. This model allows for path-dependent economic growth that accounts for both club convergence and divergence across countries. Moreover, it is shown that under certain conditions, a decrease in the subsidy rate facilitates the shift from the deterministic to stochastic AK stages, which is defined as “economic progress”, even in the face of an economic crisis, while more subsidies delay economic progress and promote the shift from the stochastic to deterministic AK stages, which is defined as “economic regress”.