Revisiting global economic activity and crude oil prices: A wavelet analysis

Based on the wavelet analysis approach, this paper firstly examines the dynamic relationship between global economic activity (proxied by the Kilian economic index) and crude oil prices in both time- and frequency-domains. Our empirical results demonstrate significant correlation between crude oil prices and global economic activity at high frequencies (in the short run) during the entire sample period; however, the co-movement between the two at low frequencies (in the long run) is weaker and exists only during certain proportions of the sample period. We also document evidence that global economic activity and oil price are positively correlated, with dynamic lead-lag relationships across time. Our findings are robust to alternative choices of oil price indexes and controlling for other confounding factors such as geopolitical risk, armed conflicts, economic policy uncertainty and equity market uncertainty. The current study provides valuable implications for oil market investors based on the information of global economic situation and its dynamic relationships with oil prices.     

Does Ecological Footprint Impede Economic Growth? An Empirical Analysis Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis

This paper examines the relationship between income and environmental quality using environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The hypothesised link is tested using time‐series analysis of 22 countries over the period 1961–2011. The degree of environmental impacts of economic activity is measured using ecological footprint (EF) per capita as explanatory variable, while real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and its quadratic and cubic forms are used as predictor variables in these countries. First, the EKC hypothesis is tested through examining the relationship between EF and GDP using linear, quadratic and cubic functions. Further, the long‐run relationship between EF and GDP is investigated using a vector error correction model. It was found that there is a cointegrated relationship between the variables in almost all countries, which was statistically significant, and EKC supported in 10 countries. Additionally, almost all error correction terms are correct in sign and are significant, which implies that some percentage of disequilibria in EF in the previous year adjusts back to the long‐run equilibrium in the current year. Therefore, an efficient trade‐off between environmental protection and economic benefits should be taken, and EF should be reduced through changing consumption patterns, improving the efficiency of use of resources and cleaner technology choices.     

Oil,Growth, and Health: What Does the Cross‐Country Evidence Really Show?*

We show that previous results from the body of literature on the resource curse have primarily been driven by the collapse in oil prices during the mid‐1980s. By exploiting cross‐country variations in the size of initial oil endowments and the timing of oil discoveries, we find that there is a stable positive relationship between oil abundance and long‐run economic growth. Using dynamic panel data methods, we also find that there is no evidence that higher oil rents hinder growth. However, to focus on material gain means that the welfare gain from oil is understated, because oil‐rich countries benefit more by the reduction in infant mortality and the gain in longevity. Interestingly, such oil‐led health improvements are more pronounced in non‐democratic countries, where initial heath conditions were poor and oil wealth is concentrated among the ruling elites.     

Thresholds in finance–growth nexus: Evidence from G‐7 economies

This study explores the finance and economic growth nexus in G‐7 economies as these countries experience significantly higher levels of financial development. Using a balanced panel of 31 years from 1983 to 2013, we provide new evidence on the finance–growth relationship. We show the presence of nonlinearity as there is an inverted U‐shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run. Estimating the thresholds in the finance–growth nexus, we notice that there exists a threshold effect of finance at 109% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We observe that exceeding the threshold would hinder the countries instead of furthering economic growth as too much finance is harmful. Based on the panel Granger causality test results, we claim that financial development should be associated with optimal growth performance. Our findings for the G‐7 economies offer some useful policy inferences to the emerging and developing economies in designing their financial development strategies.     

A finite mixture analysis of structural breaks in the G-7 gross domestic product series

In this paper we apply a clustering procedure to detect trend changes in macroeconomic data, focusing on the GDP time series for the G-7 countries. A finite mixture of regression models is considered to show different patterns and changes in GDP slopes over time in the long-trend component. Two popular trend-cycle decompositions (i.e., Beveridge and Nelson Decomposition and Hodrick and Prescott filter) are considered in a preliminary step of the analysis to stress the differences between the two methods in terms of the inferred clustering, if any. This approach can be used also to detect structural breaks or change points and it is an alternative to existing approaches in a probabilistic framework. We also discuss international changes in the GDP distribution for the G-7 countries, highlighting similarities, e.g., in break dates, aiming at adding more insights on the economic integration among countries. Our findings suggest that by looking at changes in slope over time a mixture of regression models is able to detect change points, also compared with alternative procedures.     

External Debt and Growth in Emerging Economies

The paper studies the relationship between external debt and economic growth in a panel of emerging countries. A number of economists have proposed different methods of analysing the nexus between economic growth and public debt. The paper investigates the debt-growth nexus using a linear and non-linear specification, employing a panel ARDL model on 13 emerging countries during the period 1990–2016. The results show that there is no robust effect of debt on economic growth in the long run; however in the short run, external debt is negatively and significantly correlated to economic growth.     

Broadband penetration and economic growth nexus: evidence from cross-country panel data

This article investigates whether there are Granger causal relationships between broadband penetration, degree of urbanization, foreign direct investment and economic growth using a panel data set covering the G-20 countries for the period 1998–2011. Using our multivariate framework, we first find that all of the variables are cointegrated. Our findings further reveal a network of causal connections between the variables including short-run bidirectional causality between broadband penetration and economic growth among the more developed countries within the G-20. On the other hand, for the developing countries within the G-20, there is evidence of unidirectional causality from economic growth to broadband penetration.     

The Relationship Between Growth,Total Investment and Inward FDI: Evidence from Time Series Data

This paper explores the causal relationship between growth, total investment and inward FDI in 47 countries. Using error‐correction model, the significance, direction and sign of long‐run and short‐run causal effects between GDP, capital stock and FDI stock are investigated. The miscellaneous results echo the divergent theoretical viewpoints and the mixed empirical results of previous works. However, the evidence found in this study suggests that there are differences in growth mechanism between developed and developing countries, between various developing regions, and between oil‐exporting and non‐oil‐exporting countries. The main policy implication is that capital investment is essential for growth while FDI’s effect is uncertain in developing countries. FDI as well as total investment enhances growth only under some conditions.     

Modelling the nonlinear relationship between CO2 emissions from oil and economic growth

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from oil and GDP, using panel data from 1971 to 2007 of 98 countries. Previous studies have discussed the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, but little attention has been paid to the existence of a nonlinear relationship between these two variables. We argue that there exists a threshold effect between the two variables: different levels of economic growth bear different impacts on oil CO2 emissions. Our empirical results do not support the EKC hypothesis. Additionally, the results of short-term analyses of static and dynamic panel threshold estimations suggest the efficacy of a double-threshold (three-regime) model. In the low economic growth regime, economic growth negatively affects oil CO2 emissions growth; in the medium economic growth regime, however, economic growth positively impacts oil CO2 emissions growth; and in the high economic growth regime, the impact of economic growth is insignificant.     

No matter how it is measured, income declines with global warming

The contemporaneous relationship between temperature and income is important because it enables economists to estimate the economic impact of global warming without assuming a structural model. Until recently, empirical evidence generally suggests that there is a negative relationship between temperature and income, and, therefore, global warming has an adverse impact on economic activity. However, Nordhaus (2006) argues that the temperature-income relationship depends on how income is measured. We show in this paper that the results of Nordhaus (2006) may be due to an omitted-variable problem. Based on a well-motivated temperature-income model, we find that the relationship between temperature and income is not dependent on income measurement. Our regression results show that the adverse impact of an increase of 1 °C in temperature can be as much as a 3% decrease in total income for the G-7 nations. Therefore, our results suggest an aggressive climate mitigation policy.     

The effectiveness of monetary policy and output fluctuations: An asymmetric analysis

Previous studies have investigated asymmetries in the effects of monetary policy on the real economic activity by using either vector autoregressive (VAR)-based regime-switching models with smooth transition technique or Gaussian functions to parameterise the dynamic effects of structural shocks on the economy. These kinds of VAR models assume asymmetry as a short-run relationship between the series since the long-run neutrality hypothesis of money states that monetary policy can only affect productive capacity of the economy in the short run, but not in the long run. The recent theoretical literature shows that this hypothesis is not quite right. Thus, this paper examines the extent to which monetary policy has a long-run asymmetric effect on output in a number of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries by using a nonlinear hidden cointegration analysis within a likelihood-based panel framework. The findings indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the real interest rate as an indicator of monetary policy and the growth rate of real output in five countries out of nine under review. This gives support for the view that output has responded asymmetrically to the real interest rate changes. The economic implication of our results is that monetary policy affects positive and negative output fluctuations differently.     

Resource Price,Macroeconomic Distortions,and Public Outlay: Evidence from Oil-Exporting Countries

This study examines the repercussions of oil price and macroeconomic distortions on government expenditure in 15 oil-exporting countries. Adapting the Pooled Mean Group analytical approach, the long-run findings are indicative of a blend of the Dutch disease and rent-seeking hypothesis of the resource curse theory in oil-exporting countries. These effects crucially impact on the poor growth of the real sector in these countries, needed for diversification of their revenue base. Furthermore, both resource curses account for one of the reasons why fiscal deficits in oil-exporting countries have been on the rise. The country short-run coefficient for the balance of payment, economic growth, and exchange rate also supports the Dutch disease and rent-seeking hypothesis mix found in the long run. Also, the significant negative impact of oil rents in most countries shows that oil-exporting countries have been making attempts at diversifying their income sources; this is because proceeds from oil cannot be relied upon to adequately finance growing government expenditure, due to the volatile nature of oil prices, thus suggesting also that the volatility hypothesis is valid for most oil-exporting countries in the short run.     

Global Integration of Central and Eastern European Financial Markets—The Role of Economic Sentiments

This paper examines the importance of different economic sentiments for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) during the transition process. We first analyze the importance of economic confidence with respect to the CEECs' financial markets. Since the integration of formerly strongly‐regulated markets into global markets can also lead to an increase in the dependence of the CEECs' economies on global sentiments, we also investigate the relationship between global economic sentiments, domestic income, and share prices. Applying a restricted cointegrating VAR (CVAR) framework, which allows us to distinguish between the long‐run and the short‐run dynamics, our results for the short run suggest that economic sentiments are influenced by share prices but also offer some predictive power with respect to the latter. What is more, European sentiments play an important role in particular for the CEECs' income and sentiments.     

国际油价波动对经济增长的影响——基于中国的实证分析

基于1990年1月至2009年3月的月度数据,本文实证分析了我国经济增长与国际石油价格之间的长期变动关系,其特点在于,采用稳健性较强的T-Y因果检验来分析油价与经济增长的Granger因果关系,同时,运用非对称协整技术以考察油价与经济增长之间的非线性关系。研究发现：①长期中油价是我国经济增长的单向Granger原因;②油价与我国经济增长之间存在非对称协整关系,油价上涨对经济活动的负面影响大于油价下跌的积极影响。基于中国经济运行的实际,本文还分析了实证结果背后的原因,并提出当前国际金融危机背景下,油价呈下跌趋势,需抓住有利时机,动用外汇储备,大力购入石油资源,建立起石油战略储备;在经济复苏、油价上涨时,可以启动石油战略储备来减少石油供应冲击,从而有助于及时保证我国经济平稳快速增长的政策建议。     

An asymmetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey

In this paper we analyze the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the economic activity in Turkey. In contrast to previous studies on Turkey, the existence of an asymmetric relationship between economic activity and oil prices is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions based on a multivariate two-regime Threshold VAR (TVAR) model. Our analysis suggests that the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic activity is nonlinear and exhibits an asymmetric pattern: oil price changes have a significant effect on inflation and output when the change exceeds a certain threshold level. The lower response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks in the low oil price change regime also indicates that only the shocks exceeding the optimal threshold level are able to create a contraction in the economic activity.     

Investigating the Dynamic Interaction between Military Spending and Economic Growth

The relationship and interaction of military spending and economic growth have been theoretically and empirically investigated since the 1970s but it still cannot provide conclusive evidence towards the direction and the quantification of the impact between the two magnitudes. The use of different data sets in terms of time periods, and number and geographic location of countries, different theoretical background leading to different econometric specifications, and single type of econometric methodology, make any comparison impossible. This paper looks into the dynamic interaction between military spending and economic growth during the period 1988–2013 that includes the recent years of economic crisis covering 138 countries without making any prior assumptions about the theoretical channels of influence, while not limited to a single estimation method but employing a wide range of methodologies in order to form a complete picture of the long‐ and short‐run interaction. Furthermore, as such interaction might not be linear, we create three groups of countries based on the countries' income developmental stage. Overall we find no evidence of long‐ and short‐run causality from the military spending to economic growth except for the developing countries (positive in the long run). However, from economic growth to military spending we find a positive impact for all groups except the least developed countries. We also notice the interaction was more prominent prior to the start of the economic crisis.     

Causal Linkages among the Product Diversification of Exports,Economic Globalization and Economic Growth

This paper examines causal relationships between economic globalization, the three indices for product diversification of exports (Theil index, intensive margin and extensive margin) and economic growth in the unbalanced panel data framework in 139 countries over the period 1970–2010. We also consider the subgroup of the countries related to the income levels and run the panel Granger non‐causality tests for heterogeneous panels. The empirical results indicate that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between economic globalization and economic growth. There is also a significant causal relationship that runs from all three indices for the diversification of exports to economic growth. After implementing various robustness checks, we observe that diversification of exports and economic globalization are positively related with economic growth merely in the upper middle economies.     

Dutch disease and the oil boom and bust

This paper examines the impact of the oil price boom in the 1970s and the subsequent bust on non‐oil economic activity in oil‐dependent countries. During the boom, manufacturing exports and output increased significantly relative to non‐oil countries. These measures decreased gradually during the bust and subsequent period of low prices, displaying a positive relationship with oil prices. However, exports of agricultural products sharply decreased during the boom. Imports of all types of goods displayed strong pro‐cyclicality with respect to oil prices. The results suggest that increased local demand and investment spillovers from the windfall resulted in increased manufacturing activity.     

宏观经济环境对并购活动的影响——基于时间序列数据的经验研究

基于宏观经济动因,研究经济发展水平、利率与股票价格指数对我国总体性并购活动的影响,实证检验结果表明：除利率之外,经济发展水平及股票价格均与总体性并购活动存在长期的均衡关系,并且为总体性并购活动的Granger原因;在短期内,经济发展水平波动与股票价格波动对并购活动波动均存在正向影响,而利率波动对并购活动波动存在负向影响。这说明经济发展水平与股票价格是我国并购浪潮的重要驱动因素。     

Economic growth,inflation and oil shocks: are the 1970s coming back?

This article analyses the relationship between oil price shocks and the macroeconomic evolution of the Group of Seven (G7) countries. Using the Qu and Perron (2007) methodology, we endogenously identify three breaks in the nonlinear relationship across our 1970 to 2008 sample. We compute long-term multipliers and find that the response of output and inflation to oil price shocks is greatest in the 1970s and progressively disappears until the late 1990s. In contrast to the previous literature, we observe that both effects reappear in the 2000s, especially on inflation. Nevertheless, the transmission of oil price shocks to the economy is weaker than in the 1970s, which means that oil price shocks have lost some of their explanatory power. Precisely identifying these effects is crucial for the design of adequate economic measures to control or smoothen them.