Guns,laws and public shootings in the United States

Since the late 1990s, there have been increasing numbers of public shootings carried out with firearms in the United States. These tragedies continually renew the regulatory debate concerning public safety while considering civil liberties. Using a unique data set, we investigate whether laws correspond to whether an event occurs and the effects of event-specific characteristics on public shooting outcomes. In particular, we analyse how state-specific gun laws, the types of firearms, the shooting venues and the mental health of the gunman impact the outcomes of public shootings. Results show that most gun laws are unrelated to whether an event occurs. In addition, common state and federal gun laws that outlaw assault weapons are unrelated to the likelihood of an assault weapon being used during a public shooting event. Moreover, results show that the use of assault weapons is not related to more victims or fatalities than other types of guns. However, the use of hand guns, shot guns and high-capacity magazines is directly related to the number of victims and fatalities in a public shooting event. Finally, the gunman’s reported mental illness is often associated with an increase in the number of victims and fatalities.     

The effects of state and federal background checks on state-level gun-related murder rates

The purpose of the present study was to determine whether firearm background checks are significantly related to gun-related murder rates. The present study differs from prior research in several ways. First, a large longitudinal data-set is used; data for 50 states for the period 1980–2011 are examined. Second, the effects of both federal and state background checks, including state-mandated private sales background checks, are estimated. Finally, a fixed effects model that controls for both state-level and year-specific effects is used. Results suggest that states that require dealer background checks have lower gun-related murder rates than other states. In addition, after implementation of the Brady Act, gun-related murder rates fell. However, the results also suggest that, for the entire period in question, states with private sales background checks had higher gun-related murder rates than states with no such background checks. If one only looks the Brady Act period, however, then the private sales background check variable is insignificant. These results for private sales background checks are novel and contrary to the results of much prior research in this area.     

The short-term impact of smoke-free workplace laws on fatal heart attacks

Using data from across the US, we find that as the number of communities adopting smoking bans in workplaces in a state increases or an entire state goes smoke-free, there are significant reductions in fatal Myocardial Infarctions (MI) among those aged 25–54. The result proves durable, as we subject it to an extensive battery of robustness checks. These results are smaller in magnitude, however, than published case studies analysing the experiences of individual communities passing bans.     

Compulsory Schooling Laws and the Cure for Child Labour

This paper provides an explanation for the existence of child labour which relies on the imperfect enforcement of compulsory schooling laws. In the presence of complementarities in the production of human capital that justify legislative intervention, mandatory measures ensure that coordination failures are solved so that all parents send their children to school and the socially optimal equilibrium is reached. However, if enforcement of legislation is too low, multiple equilibria emerge. In this case, compulsory schooling laws may have adverse welfare effects on all households.     

Much ado about nothing? Smoking bans and Germany's hospitality industry

Over the past years, public smoking bans have been introduced in most European countries. Unlike elsewhere, in Germany such bans were introduced at state level at different points in time, which provides important intra-country regional variation that can be exploited to identify the effects of such bans on the hospitality industry. Using monthly data from a compulsory survey carried out by the German Federal Statistical Office, we study the short-run effects that these bans had on establishments’ sales. In contrast to the largely US-based literature, we find that smoke-free policies had a negative (yet moderate) effect on establishment sales. Closure rates of businesses in the hospitality industry, however, were not significantly affected by the introduction of state smoking bans.     

The interaction between potential criminals' and victims' demands for guns

I develop a model with endogenous gun ownership and study the interaction between the demands for guns by heterogeneous potential offenders and victims. I show that the interaction depends on pervasiveness of guns, injury probabilities and, in particular, the impact of the gun on the probability of success against armed relative to unarmed adversaries. While the sanction on armed offense is maximal under plausible conditions, the sanction on unarmed offense balances direct deterrence benefits against marginal deterrence costs and corresponding net property losses. Optimal gun control policy disarms all offenders but allows the attractive potential victims to own guns. The paper also discusses the effects of enforcement and price controls on the demands for guns and welfare.     

Model uncertainty and the effect of shall-issue right-to-carry laws on crime

In this paper, we explore the role of model uncertainty in explaining the different findings in the literature regarding the effect of shall-issue right-to-carry concealed weapons laws on crime. In particular, we systematically examine how different modeling assumptions affect the results. We find little support for some widely used assumptions in the literature (e.g., population weights), but find that allowing for the effect of the law to be heterogeneous across both counties and over time is important for explaining the observed patterns of crime. In terms of model uncertainty, we find that there is substantial variation in the estimated effects for each model across all dimensions of the model space. This suggests that one should be cautious in using the results from any particular model to inform policy decisions.     

Does the certainty of arrest reduce domestic violence? Evidence from mandatory and recommended arrest laws

Domestic violence remains a major public policy concern despite two decades of policy intervention. To eliminate police inaction in response to domestic violence, many states have passed mandatory arrest laws, which require the police to arrest abusers when a domestic violence incident is reported. Using the FBI Supplementary Homicide Reports, I find that mandatory arrest laws actually increased intimate partner homicides. I discuss two potential mechanisms for this increase in homicides: decreased reporting by victims and increased reprisal by abusers. I investigate validity of these hypotheses by examining the effect of mandatory arrest laws on different sub-groups and by analyzing family homicides where the victim is less often responsible for reporting. There appears to be consistent evidence for the reporting mechanisms. For family homicides, mandatory arrest laws appear to reduce the number of homicides. This study therefore provides evidence that these laws may have perverse effects on intimate partner violence, harming the very people they seek to help.     

THE AUSTRALIAN FIREARMS BUYBACK AND ITS EFFECT ON GUN DEATHS

The 1996-1997 National Firearms Agreement (NFA) in Australia introduced strict gun laws, primarily as a reaction to the mass shooting in Port Arthur, Tasmania, in 1996, where 35 people were killed. Despite the fact that several researchers using the same data have examined the impact of the NFA on firearm deaths, a consensus does not appear to have been reached. In this paper, we reanalyze the same data on firearm deaths used in previous research, using tests for unknown structural breaks as a means to identifying impacts of the NFA. The results of these tests suggest that the NFA did not have any large effects on reducing firearm homicide or suicide rates. (JEL C22, K19)     

The effects of gun control on crimes: a spatial interactive fixed effects approach

This paper examines the effect of right-to-carry laws on crimes. We relax the assumption that unobserved time effects have homogeneous impacts on states; therefore, states with right-to-carry laws may follow different time trends which might be stronger or weaker than those of other states including states with no right-to-carry laws. The heterogeneous time trends are modeled by a factor structure where time factors represent time-varying unobservables, and factor loadings account for their heterogeneous impacts across states. No assumption is imposed on the shape of the time trend. Crime statistics exhibit spatial dependence, and a state’s adoption of right-to-carry law may have external effects on its neighboring states. Using a dynamic spatial panel model with interactive effects, we find positive spatial spillovers in crime rates. Depending on a crime category, an average \(1\%\) reduction in crime rates in neighboring states can decrease crime rates by 0.069–0.287%, with property crimes exhibiting higher degrees of spatial dependence than violent crimes. We find that although the passage of right-to-carry laws has no significant effects on the overall violent or property crime rates, they lead to short-term increases in robbery and medium-term decreases in murder rates. The results are robust to the number of factors, a different sample ending point, and some alternative spatial weights matrices and model specifications.     

Shocking news and cognitive performance

We study how shocking news affects cognitive performance. Identifying these effects makes societies more resilient by helping to adjust policy responses to reduce indirect costs of future atrocities. Our analysis is based on a school shooting that coincided with national matriculation exams, allowing a difference-in-differences analysis. We find a substantial negative effect on males: their average performance dropped by seven percent. The average performance of females was unaffected. Our findings suggest that a shocking event may call for psychological support for young people even in communities that are not directly affected.     

Trigger warning: the causal impact of gun ownership on suicide

With a growing debate over tighter firearm regulations, we consider an important social consequence of increased firearm access: increased firearm suicides. Using data from the federal criminal background check system, we consider the impact of firearm ownership on firearm suicide rates. To deal with concerns of identification, we instrument for firearm background checks with state-year-level Google search intensity for phrases that reflect fear of future gun shortages and learning about the constitutional rights of firearm owners. We find that an increase in firearm ownership has a sizable and statistically significant impact on firearm suicide rates. A 10% increase in firearm ownership increases firearm suicide rates by approximately 3%, which is five times larger than non-instrumented estimates. Furthermore, we find no effect of gun ownership on non-firearm suicide rates, suggesting our findings are not simply capturing a suicide method substitution effect. The results are consistent with a variety of validity and robustness tests. Our results make clear the link between firearm ownership and firearm suicide rates, which have increased dramatically over the last decade.     

Compulsory schooling laws and school crime

Extensive literature demonstrates that compulsory schooling laws improve educational attainment, well-being, civic involvement, and labour market outcomes. However, at-risk youth incapacitated to schools may impact the learning environment and school safety. The purpose of this article is to study whether raising the minimum dropout age (MDA) requirement above 16 increases crime committed within US public high schools. A difference-in-difference estimation exploits changes in state-level MDA laws over time and indicates that schools in states that raise their MDA requirement to 18 incur more overall crime relative to schools in states that do not, while no effect on overall crime is identified when the MDA requirement is raised to 17. Furthermore, these effects persist for 4 years after passage and more intensely in metropolitan areas. Coupling this research with existing literature suggests that when the MDA requirement is raised to 18, only a small portion of the observed reduction in juvenile crime is displaced to schools. Analysis by category of crime reveals schools incur more physical attacks, no change in illegal drug and property crimes, and fewer violent crimes in states that raise their MDA requirement to 18, while illegal drug crimes increase in states that raise their MDA requirement to 17.     

Alcohol consumption and alcohol advertising bans

The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the relationship between alcohol advertising bans and alcohol consumption. Most prior studies have found no effect of advertising on total alcohol consumption. A simple economic model is provided which explains these prior results. The data set used in this study is a pooled time series of data from 20 countries over 26 years. The empirical model is a simultaneous equations system which treats both alcohol consumption and alcohol advertising bans as endogenous. The primary conclusions of this study are that alcohol advertising bans decrease alcohol consumption and that alcohol consumption has a positive effect on the legislation of advertising bans. The results indicate that an increase of one ban could reduce alcohol consumption by 5% to 8%. The alcohol price elasticity is estimated at about 0.2. The results suggest that recent exogenous decreases in alcohol consumption will decrease the probability of enactment of new bans and undermine the continuance of existing bans. Canada, Denmark, New Zealand and Finland have recently rescinded alcohol advertising bans. Alcohol consumption in these countries may increase or decrease at a slower rate than would have occurred had advertising bans remained in place.     

新“国五条”的两种可能结果：一个基于理性预期的分析——以天津市为例

2013年2月20日,国务院常务会议决定加强房地产市场调控力度,出台了新“国五条”。新“国五条“继承了中央紧缩的房地产市场调控思路,进一步打压房价,限制二手房交易并鼓励保障性住房建设,尤其是其规定的对个人二手房销售者按照销售收入征收20％的个税更是引起国内一片争论,许多二手房持有者急于在新政策实行前出手自己的房屋。事实上,新“国五条”是一把双刃剑,在取得房价可以预期的立竿见影的下跌的同时,为未来的房地产市场甚至中国经济埋下了隐患,这些隐患究竟是什么,如何做可以避免这些隐患,从这些问题出发,提出了一些建议,有一定的参考价值。     

THE EFFECTS OF SECONDARY SCHOOL QUALITY ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF EARNINGS

A number of researchers have investigated the effects of school quality on average earnings in the postschooling years. In this article we broaden the discussion to investigate whether school quality has a measurable impact at other points in the conditional earnings distribution. We find that in specifications that do not control for individual and family background characteristics there are differential effects of school resources on earnings. The most significant effects occur in the top half of the conditional earnings distribution. However, after controlling for a variety of demographic variables, much of the impact of school resources on earnings is diminished. Exceptions to this seem to be school enrollment levels and, to a lesser degree, expenditures: higher enrollments tend to raise the upper tail of the earnings distribution without a similar increase in the bottom of the distribution; the effect of expenditures is positive and significant for the 0.25 quantile and the median.     

论金融危机对完善我国法律对策的启示

美国法律对美联储宽松货币政策规范不力、金融信贷管制法律松弛、金融监管体系存在法律漏洞、法律长期缺乏对金融技术与制度创新保持协调发展的规范等是酿成金融危机的关键因素。国际金融危机启示我们，必须坚持依法推进市场调节与政府调控相结合，强化和完善金融监管措施，强化对金融创新风险的严密防控，力求防范金融风险的法律监管机制全覆盖，而且应不断提升法律应对国际金融危机保增长的能力。     

Why the FTC has declared war on doctors

In this article, the Washington editor of MEDICAL ECONOMICS reviews the salient actions taken by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) against medical societies, physician directors of Blue Shield organizations, Health Systems Agencies, and Professional Services Review Organizations. When interviewed, top-ranking FTC staff officers responded to specific questions regarding the concerns of the agency. The FTC regards the practice of medicine as an activity in which competition must be protected. Thus, the restriction of advertising, setting of free schedules, limitation on the number of physicians, and exclusion of other health-care providers or organizations is regarded as anti-competitive and merits intervention by the FTC. The staff members acknowledge that the Congress may enact laws to control health care costs which would permit practices that the FTC would oppose in the absence of such legislation.     

Immigration and School Choice in Australia

This article examines the relationship between the share of immigrants in a locality and private versus public school choices of natives and immigrants in Australia. Using the 2001 Australian Census data, it finds that private school attendance among native‐born Australians is higher in localities with a higher share of immigrant populations. Immigrants’ private school attendance is lower where the share of their like‐type immigrants is higher. These effects vary with the presence of a common language and ethnic background between the natives and the immigrants. Overall, the results suggest the possibility of a ‘flight’ from unfamiliar cultures in the Australian school system.     

UNDERSTANDING THE INTERSTATE EXPORT OF CRIME GUNS: A GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

In 2009, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives successfully traced over 145,000 guns recovered at crime scenes in the United States. Of these guns, more than 43,000 were originally sold in a different state from which they were recovered. What factors may explain the interstate movement of these crime guns? This article uses the well‐known gravity model of international trade to estimate interstate flow of crime guns. Empirical results show that, like trade of goods and services between nations, the traced movement of crime guns between states is proportionate to the economic sizes of trading partners and is inversely proportionate to the distance between them. In addition, the presence of gangs in one or both states tends to increase the flow of crime guns. Finally, differences in state gun laws tend to affect trade flows with crime guns flowing from states with “weak” gun laws to states with “strict” gun laws. (JEL K00, K42)