Commercial bank ownership and performance in China

This study examines the determinants of bank performance based on proxy variables that assess the quality of assets, profitability, liquidity and overall performance. Using a sample of 111 Chinese commercial banks over the period of 2000–2012, we find that foreign banks appear to have better asset quality and overall performance although lower profitability compared to domestic banks. In contrast, the state-owned banks tend to be more profitable and have better liquidity position compared with other domestic banks and foreign banks. At bank level, equity/liability ratio exerts significant influence on overall bank performance, while at the macroeconomic level, per capital GDP, GDP growth, inflation and unemployment rates appear to have a bearing on bank performance.     

Do banking system transparency and competition affect nonperforming loans in the Chinese banking sector?

The increasing importance of transparency practices and the improving status of bank competition in China are rarely explored in nonperforming loans (NPLs) literature. Thus, the purpose of this study is to examine banking system transparency and competition along with macroeconomic and bank-specific variables as determinants of NPL. We use the two-step system GMM dynamic panel model for Chinese banks based on annual data from 2000 to 2014. Our results indicate that high transparency in the Chinese banking system decreases poor-quality assets but not in the case of government-owned banks, whereas increase in competition increases NPL. Moreover, we find mixed results in the context of macroeconomics and bank-specific variables. Our study has practical implications in risk management practices and macro prudential policies.     

Conventional and Islamic Banks’ Performance in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries; Efficiency and Determinants

This paper investigates the cost efficiency levels of the banking sectors of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries for the period from 2001 to 2015 and provides a comparison of conventional and Islamic banks. We obtain measures of efficiency using a stochastic frontier model and the meta-frontier approach. The evidence demonstrates that Islamic banks are less efficient and have a weaker level of production technology than conventional banks. The cost efficiency of banks varies significantly across the six Gulf countries and over time. We adopt the results drawn from the meta-frontier model that allow to take into account the differences between the studied countries, and empirically examine the bank-specific, financial, macroeconomic, and political determinants of banking efficiency. The results provide evidence of the differential effects of the selected variables on the efficiency of conventional and Islamic banks. These variables affect the performance of the two types of banks in different ways and with different magnitudes.

     

The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey

This paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between the yield curve and macroeconomic variables by focusing on an emerging market case: Turkey. The most important result of the paper is that the relationship between the yield curve and macroeconomic variables is significantly affected by the change in monetary policy which is associated with the implementation of inflation targeting (IT) regime. While before the IT regime the yield curve is affected to some extent by macroeconomic variables, after the IT regime, it is mainly driven by macroeconomic variables. We also find that central bank has gained ability to affect the entire yield curve with the IT regime. The other important result is that in addition to inflation and real activities, the exchange rates also play an important role in the yield curve dynamics in Turkey.     

An asymmetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey

In this paper we analyze the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the economic activity in Turkey. In contrast to previous studies on Turkey, the existence of an asymmetric relationship between economic activity and oil prices is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions based on a multivariate two-regime Threshold VAR (TVAR) model. Our analysis suggests that the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic activity is nonlinear and exhibits an asymmetric pattern: oil price changes have a significant effect on inflation and output when the change exceeds a certain threshold level. The lower response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks in the low oil price change regime also indicates that only the shocks exceeding the optimal threshold level are able to create a contraction in the economic activity.     

Leading indicators of non-performing loans in Greece: the information content of macro-, micro- and bank-specific variables

We examine the information content of a unique set of macroeconomic, bank-specific, market and credit registry variables as regards their ability to forecast non-performing loans using a panel data set of nine Greek banks. We distinguish between business, consumer and mortgage loans and investigate their differences with respect to their optimal predictors. The quasi-AIM approach (Carson et al. in Int J Forecast 27:923–941, 2010) is utilized in order to take into account heterogeneity across banks and minimize estimation uncertainty. In addition, we calculate a number of forecasting measures in order to take into account the policy makers’ preferences. We find that market variables, specifically the supermarket sales, confidence indices for the services and construction sector and the business sentiment index represent good forecasting variables for most categories of NPLs. In addition, industrial production is the optimal predictor for consumer NPLs and imports for business NPLs. Finally, bank-specific variables represent top-performing leading indicators for business NPLs. Our results have significant implications for stress-testing credit risk in a top-down manner and for supervisory and macro-prudential policy design.     

Macroeconomic uncertainty,growth and inflation in the Eurozone: a causal approach

In this article, we evaluate the causal relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty indices, inflation and growth rate for 17 Eurozone countries on a county-level examination. In performing a series of linear and nonlinear causality tests, we find little evidence of a causal relationship between uncertainty and macroeconomic variables. Thus, macroeconomic analysis based on uncertainty indices should be treated with caution.     

A generalization of modern production theory

This paper analyses the relationship between inflation and equity returns in Australia over the period January 1974 to March 1996. Analysis is based on monthly and quarterly data, using value weighted equity indices at both the aggregate market and industry level. Three price indices, the consumer price index (CPI) (quarterly) and the manufactured materials used index (MMU) and the manufacturing articles produced index (MAP) (both monthly and quarterly) are used to measure inflation. Results provide little evidence of the statistically significant negative relationship observed in the US for the full study period. Analysis is also conducted on three subperiods, ‘monetary targeting’ (July 1976–January 1985), ‘checklist approach’ (February 1985–December 1989) and anti-inflation (January 1990–March 1996). At the market level the anti-inflation subperiod does provide some evidence of a negative relationship between inflation and equity returns though statistical significance is not apparent with quarterly time series. The impact of expected inflation on industry returns varies considerably. Consistent with the overall market analysis, the incidence of negative expected inflation betas increases in the latter anti-inflation subperiod. Finally, changes in Government inflation policy appear to have greatest impact on industrial company expected inflation betas.     

A dynamic approach to analysing the effect of the global crisis on nonperforming loans: evidence from the Turkish banking sector

This article analyses the effect of the global crisis on the determinants of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the Turkish banking sector by using dynamic panel estimation techniques. Empirical findings suggest that NPLs present persistence, which is more evident after the crisis, while other regressors have also persistent effects in the post-crisis period. Moreover, NPLs are mostly shaped by bank-specific variables before the crisis, whereas, after the crisis, NPLs are also driven by macroeconomic and policy-related variables. In particular, the post-crisis significance of GDP, policy rate and sovereign debt shows that robust economic activity, tight monetary policy and strong fiscal balances restrict NPLs, thereby enhancing financial stability. The significance of inflation in both sub-periods shows that commitment to price stability objective is indispensable for limiting NPLs and promoting financial stability. In the period ahead, the speed and the direction of normalization in global monetary policies may determine the course of financial conditions, which, therefore, have implications regarding NPL dynamics and financial stability.     

Do Islamic banks shift from mark-up to equity financing when their contracting environments are improved?

Islamic banks should share their profits and losses with their customers through equity financing but most of their assets are mark-up financing, which resembles loans. Theoretically, one of the reasons is Islamic banks operate in poor contracting environments where equity financing is very risky. Using fixed-effects models, we examine whether better contracting environments induce Islamic banks to shift from mark-up to equity financing. We find no evidence that contracting environments do, which means debt-like instruments will continue dominating Islamic banks’ assets in the near future.     

Banking distress in MENA countries and the role of mergers as a strategic policy to resolve distress

This paper studies banking distress in MENA countries and considers the extent to which mergers are used as a solution for resolving individual banking distress. We use a two-level nested logit model to model the interdependence between merger decisions and the distressed state of banks. Both bank-specific variables and macroeconomic variables are deployed to predict banking distress. In line with other recent papers, we challenge the view that specific bank indicators such as CAMEL category and bank size are more significant determinants of banking distress than macroeconomic variables. A comparison of model fits and out-of-sample forecasts indicates that the unordered NL model statistically outperforms a standard logit model by substantial margins. Our empirical study shows that 67% of the distressed banks in our sample are involved in merger transactions and that weak financial status systematically increases the likelihood of a bank being involved in a merger. Distressed state-owned banks are less likely to be a target of a merger transaction. However, global economic conditions do not significantly affect the decision of distressed banks to initiate a merger policy.     

Inflation and asset returns

Sustained inflation is detrimental to long-run growth and the financial system. A recent theoretical literature suggests that high inflation implies low real returns on assets. These low returns exacerbate informational frictions, interfering with the functioning of financial markets and the allocation of investment. We investigate the plausibility of an inverse relationship between inflation and real returns. Inflation and nominal equity returns are negatively correlated or uncorrelated for all low-to-moderate inflation economies examined. Safe nominal rates of return and inflation are only weakly positively correlated. However, for high inflation economies inflation and nominal returns are strongly positively correlated.     

The Pricing of Italian Equity Returns

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between common risk factors and average returns for Italian stocks. Our research has identified the Italian stock market's economic variables by using the results from factor analyses and time series regressions. We study several multi‐factor models combining the relevant macroeconomic variables with the mimicking equity portfolios SMB (small minus big) and HML (high minus low) proposed by Fama and French (1993). The key question we want to ask ourselves, is whether the influential role of the size and book‐to‐market equity factors in explaining average stock returns can stand up well when competing with some macroeconomic factors. In other words, do stock returns carry some risk premium that is independent of either the market return or the economic forces that underlie the common variation in returns? Our empirical work estimates risk premiums using both traditional two‐pass procedures and one‐pass (full information) methodologies. We show that only the market index and variables linked to interest rate shifts are consistently priced in the Italian stock returns. The role of other factors, and in particular both the size and the price‐to book ratio, are crucially dependent on the estimation procedure. (J.E.L.: G11, G12).     

中国经济增长与通货膨胀间非对称关系的实证分析

利用1985—2012年中国主要宏观经济变量数据,采用门限自回归模型实证检验了通货膨胀对经济增长的非线性影响。研究结果表明,通货膨胀门限效应明显存在;在门限值以上,通货膨胀对经济增长起阻碍作用;在门限值以下,通货膨胀对经济增长起促进作用。在此基础上,利用平滑转换回归模型进一步检验了通货膨胀与经济增长之间的非线性关系,不同模型的实证结果都支持通货膨胀门限效应存在。     

The macroeconomic determinants of private equity investment: a European comparison

A strong private equity (PE) market is a cornerstone for commercialization and innovation in modern economies. However, substantial differences exist in the relative amounts raised and invested in PE across European countries. We investigate the macroeconomic determinants of PE investment in Europe, focusing on the comparison between Central and Eastern European (CEE) and Western European countries. Our estimations are based on a data set running from 2001 to 2011 that covers 16 countries. Applying robust estimation techniques, we identify a ‘robust’ set of determinants of PE activity in both regions. We find similarities as well as differences in the driving forces of PE investments in Western European and CEE countries. Our results suggest that economic activity, the inflation rate, equity market capitalization, unit labour costs, the unemployment rate as well the the institutional and legal environment are significant determinants of PE activity.     

The effects of inflation targeting on Okun’s law

This article provides the first empirical evidence that the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) matters for the extent of tradeoff between unemployment and output, that is Okun’s law. Our full sample results indicate that IT leads to a more negative Okun’s coefficient, suggesting that, for a given reduction of output, the introduction of IT is associated with a higher unemployment rate. Subsample analyses reveal that the whole sample results are mainly driven by the industrial subsample outcomes, not the developing counterparts. Our findings point out that IT not only influences macroeconomic variables per se but also affects the relationship between/among macroeconomic variables.     

企业金融化、高管股权激励与研发投资

以2010-2015年沪深584家A股上市公司为样本,从产权异质性角度考察企业金融化、高管股权激励与研发投资关系。研究发现:①非货币金融资产持有比例与研发投资呈负相关,反映企业金融化对研发投资具有挤出效应,且高管股权激励能弱化企业金融化与研发投资的负向关系。挤出效应和弱化效应在投资性金融资产上体现非常明显,而在交易类金融资产上体现不明显;②与非国有企业相比,非货币金融资产的挤出效应和高管股权激励的弱化效应在国有企业中表现更为显著。投资性金融资产的挤出效应在国有企业中较为显著,而在非国有企业中不太显著,但高管股权激励的抑制作用在国有或非国有企业均较为明显。不论产权异质性,交易类金融资产的挤出效应和高管股权激励的抑制作用均不显著。     

The impact of macroeconomic factors on income inequality: Evidence from the BRICS

In this paper we investigate how the evolution of income growth, real interest rates, and inflation have driven income inequality across a variety of countries with particular focus on the BRICS economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) during the period 2001 to 2015. Our work suggests that, when central banks of the BRICS economies use monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization, they need to consider the impact monetary policy changes have on the distribution of income in their nations. Our estimates reveal that the unintended consequence of policies that induce economic growth and higher prices is higher income inequality. We find that the positive relationship between the three macroeconomic variables and income inequality for the BRICS economies is stronger during the post-2008 period.     

Asset pricing in an Islamic economy

ABSTRACT

We define an Islamic economy as one with borrowing restrictions, no leverage, and no risk-free asset. We derive a consumption-based asset pricing model for this economy under standard preferences. We demonstrate that news to consumption growth is the main driver of Islamic financial markets, but the degree of borrowing constraints also affects the pricing of Islamic assets. Using Saudi Arabian data, simulations show that our model does a good job in matching the observed equity premium as well as the volatility of the market return. Our model implies that the price-dividend ratio predicts dividend growth, and as a result that prices are driven mainly by cash-flow news rather than by discount rate news. Empirical tests show that our model is consistent with the data.     

Cointegration for market forecast in the Spanish stock market

This study is interested in empirically testing the existence of a long-run relationship between the Spanish stock market and its fundamentals, and in checking to which extent this relationship helps in forecasting. This study is concerned with the behaviour of the aggregate Madrid Stock Exchange in a macroeconomic context. It also identifies as macroeconomic fundamentals: industrial production as a proxy for real activity, inflation and interest rates. This study tests the existence of cointegration by Johansen's procedure. The long-run relationships among the variables implied by the existence of cointegration do not allow inference to the interrelations among the variables. To get some insight into the short-run interactions among the variables, an impulse response analysis was performed. This study compares the forecasting ability of its model with respect to alternative multivariate specifications in terms of RMSE. Also measured is the value of the forecast for the financial agents assessing the extent to which it helps improve asset allocation.